QBR Data Charts: Tannehill in "Bell Curve" group along w/ Palmer/Dalton

[NorFlaFin]

Interesting to compare QB's on teams with similar records

 

[Bagga-Viagra]

Regardless of what people want to say, Ryan passes the eyeball test for me. I've seen him make plays with his arms and his legs that I haven't seen another Miami quarterback make in a long, long time.

 

[SkapePhin]

Yes, indeed. Thus, that comparison is made through their first three years.

No, it doesn't because the data set just includes the full career, it isn't broken out by year. It's just comparing the averaged QBR distribution of those QBs careers, whether it's one year or 10 years.


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[insomnia411]

Really cool way of looking at QB performance and similar to the way I try to evaluate QBs with the exception being I never look at the lower bumps.
Using those graphs as a guide QBs Tannehill is clearly better than:
Alex Smith
Bortles
Hoyer
Geno
Sanchez
Cassel
Bradford
Carr

QBs Tannehill is clearly worse than:
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Newton
Kaepernick
Brees
E. Manning
Cutler
Flacco
Matt Ryan
Schaub
Stafford
Foles
P Manning
Rivers
Bridgewater
Brady
Romo
Wilson

Unclear:
Dalton
Palmer
Manuel
Locker
Orton
Glennon

So using those graphs Tannehill should be slotted in the 19 to 25 range of starting QBs.

That list of QBs that Tannehill is "clearly" worse than is way off man.
Bridgewater and Schaub? Really? And Tannehill is better than Kaepernick, Newton, and Foles. I would also take Tannehill over Stafford.

 

[royalshank]

QBR is stupid because it penalizes the quarterback for things like poor defensive or special teams performances. For instance, if the Dolphins' defense had stopped the Lions on their last drive, Tannehill's QBR would have been much higher than it was, even if he had done the exact same thing.

im not following. Using the Detroit example if we stop the lions on that last drive his QBR goes up?

 

[SkapePhin]

im not following. Using the Detroit example if we stop the lions on that last drive his QBR goes up?

Ya, they give points for "game winning drives" and "being clutch" somehow. Since the lead was eventually lost by the defense and didn't factor in as a "game winning drive", at least that is my understanding of it


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[Carne Asada]

No, it doesn't because the data set just includes the full career, it isn't broken out by year. It's just comparing the averaged QBR distribution of those QBs careers, whether it's one year or 10 years.


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Are they extrapolating or crunching? Also, how come it is a bell if many of those guys havent hit their ceilings?

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

im not following. Using the Detroit example if we stop the lions on that last drive his QBR goes up?

Correct. QBR is a flawed statistic for a number of reasons and that's just one of them.

And I'll continue to say that even when QBR says Ryan Tannehill is great.

 

[SkapePhin]

Are they extrapolating or crunching? Also, how come it is a bell if many of those guys havent hit their ceilings?

Tannehill's looks like a standard bell curve because his QBR ratings are more evenly distributed and closer to the midpoint than Great QBs (who get higher QBR in greater frequency) or Bad QBs (who get lower QBR in greater frequency). It's basically showing that he has posted consistently average QBR compared to other QBs. They just called it the "bell curve" group because that's what their graph ended up looking like.

If you look at the graphs, the X Axis plots QBR from 0 to 100. The Y Axis plots the frequency at which they received those QBR ratings.


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[Dick Pepperwood]

One thing to note about these comparisons is that QBR doesn't really account for the offense around the QB. The fact that Tannehill's chart is similar to Dalton's considering the vast difference in talent they have been surrounded by during their careers is encouraging to me. That says to me that if Tannehill were in the Bengals offense for the past 3 years his chart would look much more positive.


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That makes no sense. I like it Dude.

 

[SkapePhin]

That makes no sense. I like it Dude.

How does that make no sense? If he is performing as well a Dalton with clearly inferior weapons and protection, wouldn't it stand to reason that he would perform better with Dalton's level of talent around him?

 

[BlueFin]

Doesn't make much sense to use it on a young QB adjusting to the NFL who is progressing each year from the bottom towards the top.

 

[Fins1971]

Ya, they give points for "game winning drives" and "being clutch" somehow. Since the lead was eventually lost by the defense and didn't factor in as a "game winning drive", at least that is my understanding of it


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I don't like the ESPN QBR, to subjective to me. I think passer rating has more value although it has it flaws also. I'd like to see this same comparison with passer rating.

I get so sick of hearing about the defense vs Green bay. Ryan had his chance on offense to seal the game and protect his 4th quarter comeback. He failed 1st and then the defense wasn't able to stop Aaron Rodgers. Posters always want to leave this out.

As far as comparison to Dalton, I thought this thread was going to get ugly when you started it and made this comparison. I think the comparison is accurate. Many dog Dalton on here. But he is a middle of the road QB that makes some plays when needed. People act like Cincy has all this great talent. Cincy fails in the playoffs because they aren't that great. Their running game dries up in the playoffs and Dalton is expected to carry the team against playoff caliber defenses. He fails like most would. (see Peyton Manning last week) I know AJ Green is better than Wallace but compare their stats over the last 2 years. Wallace has 2 less TD's. Compare Running backs very similar. True Dalton did have Green right from the start and RT had to go his 1st year with no weapons. But this past year was very similar in terms of weapons for Miami and Cincy. Ryan actually had a better season than Dalton so I think that speaks to your assumption that Ryan would do better with the same team. But the difference isn't huge like some would contend.

 

[SkapePhin]

I don't like the ESPN QBR, to subjective to me. I think passer rating has more value although it has it flaws also. I'd like to see this same comparison with passer rating.

I get so sick of hearing about the defense vs Green bay. Ryan had his chance on offense to seal the game and protect his 4th quarter comeback. He failed 1st and then the defense wasn't able to stop Aaron Rodgers. Posters always want to leave this out.

As far as comparison to Dalton, I thought this thread was going to get ugly when you started it and made this comparison. I think the comparison is accurate. Many dog Dalton on here. But he is a middle of the road QB that makes some plays when needed. People act like Cincy has all this great talent. Cincy fails in the playoffs because they aren't that great. Their running game dries up in the playoffs and Dalton is expected to carry the team against playoff caliber defenses. He fails like most would. (see Peyton Manning last week) I know AJ Green is better than Wallace but compare their stats over the last 2 years. Wallace has 2 less TD's. Compare Running backs very similar. True Dalton did have Green right from the start and RT had to go his 1st year with no weapons. But this past year was very similar in terms of weapons for Miami and Cincy. Ryan actually had a better season than Dalton so I think that speaks to your assumption that Ryan would do better with the same team. But the difference isn't huge like some would contend.

The running game dries up because Defenses know Dalton sucks and can focus to shut it down, especially with Green out.

The Bengals have TWO stud RBs, it is a farce to say the Dolphins have a similar running game. And Wallace being even in the same conversation as Green? Lmao... Their entire receiving corps is superior, top to bottom. Dalton has great protection, big targets all over the field and a great duo of RBs and still can't get it done. And he has had epic bad performances that Tannehill has never even come close to mimicking. Dalton is a bottom tier QB with a Top Tier offensive cast, that why his stats make him look like a middle tier QB.


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[MD]

It all starts in the trenches and protecting the QB. When Tannehill has time he plays well. Like all QBs, when they don't have time the results are poor. 100+ sacks in 2 years. Fix that.

He's good. He's improving. He's your starter.