I break it down a little different:
60% - Draft Alex Smith
20% - Draft Braylon Edwards or Aaron Rodgers
20% - Trade Down with Minny
I see very little chance of a trade with Tampa, they are a team with far to many holes to give up the type of compensation it would require to move up, a lot of people don't realize that Gruden is just about in a hot seat in Tampa after two straight losing seasons and some of things that have transpired here, drafting a rookie quarterback and giving up the draft picks it would require to make it happen is not possible for them. They are in worse shape than we are.
A lot of people seem to think Minnesota trading up is a given, I don't see it that way, the Minnesota papers aren't even really discussing it, they are talking about possibly drafting a runningback. I think Minnesota would love to get Edwards, but I don't think they will sacrifice #7 & #18 to do it. They need a lot of help too, they can draft Troy Williamson and still get another great player at #18. There is a chance they could package some other type of offer that might interest Saban. such as #7 and their first rounder next year etc etc....and that is why I give it a 20% chance.
I have a personal opinion that Alex Smith secretly, or not secretly prefers Miami to San Fran and that it has a lot to with their big demands from San Fran. I think he sees San Fran as a bad situation with a cheap owner, I think his real desire is too join Linehan and Saban in Miami.