First off... let's start with a couple of assumptions and some background.
1) Next year's cap is estimated by OTC and Sportstrac to be 225M, even though the NFL itself has only committed to 220M thus far. So, we'll bow to their expertise and start with the larger number.
2) As of this evening, we are 16M over the 225M cap for next year, and at only 44 players under contract, the next 7 players that we'll sign will push us even farther over the cap. Assuming all 7 are total scrubs, this'll bring us to about 23M over the cap. ...and this is without signing any draft picks or even minor free agents like Rowe, Needham, Mostert, Wilson, or Riley. (Remember, only the top 51 contracts and dead money count against the cap)
3) Every NFL team likes to be about 10M under the cap at the beginning of the season in order to make mid-season moves... so we'll add that to the bare minimum number that we need in order to open the season.
33M is what we need to make... not to sign anyone, but just to survive with what we have (and no Wilson, Mostert or Riley... or a Punter, or...)
So let's do the easy money first.
1) Extending Wilkins is the first no-brainer move. We can reduce his 2023 cap cost approximately 6-7M dollars be giving him the 5-year contract that he deserves. It'll cost more later, but it will reduce his cost THIS (and only this) year. Easy.
2) Trading Cedric Wilson. With a 6M annual salary, he'll be easy to move. This is chump change for a starting receiver. We won't get more than a late round pick for him, but we can offload 6M in cap charges (which will be offset by about 1M when the 52nd highest paid player moves up to 51). So net savings of 5M.
3) Cut Keion Crossen. This will save a little over 2 Million (remember, his lost 3 million will partially be offset when the next 52nd man moves into the cap. So, net savings of about 2M. (we could probably save 1M by keeping him and demanding a pay cut, but so many want to cut him despite the small savings).
So... the easy moves generate only maybe 13.5M in actual cap savings. So... we still need to make another 19M just to see no improvement.
Now it gets harder...
1) We don't really have any extendable players after Wilkins. It's too soon for Tua or Waddle, Baker is probably on his eventual way out, and the other contracts are too new.
2) A lot of people think cutting Byron Jones is a no-brainer, but mostly because they really don't understand how the post June 1st designation works... Yes, it would save us 13.6M against the cap this year, but most don't understand that this would leave us with 4M in dead money this year, and a further 10M in dead money in 2024. So even less money on next year's cap when we'll be juggling again... even more so. This also means we start Kohou and Hoard on the boundaries and maybe Williams or Iggy at the nickel. Or maybe spend that 2nd rounder on a CB and pray... amiright?
It isn't a no brainer... if he's healthy, and if the rumours that he ducked working are wrong, it's best to keep him and let his money slide off gradually-- unless you think we can dump him and then buy ANOTHER expensive CB?
3) "Cut that rat bastard Cethan Carter", some say. Newsflash... He makes 2.3M and replacing him on the 51 would cost us that 1M that I keep talking about. So... very little.
4) Sometimes you hear... cut Ogbah and/or Sanders... Nope, their salaries are guaranteed. We pay them whether they are here or not. So scratch that. We can cut them next year, and we will.
So... are you ready for reality? We are still at 19M and we haven't resigned any of our own. We haven't brought in a vet QB. We haven't brought in a swing tackle. Hell... we barely have 51 players.
So... where is all this money coming from. You just have to go to the list of players whose cap charges are 10M/year or more and have a high salary that can be converted to bonus. There are exactly 6 of them. Ready? Hill (base salary 16m), Chubb (19.4 base), Armstead (9M base), Byron Jones (already discussed), Ogbah (15M base), Baker (8M base). (Hoard already has a very small base)
Yeah... Three guys we just signed (one of whom is always injured). One coming of a back injury, and two we want to get rid of... wheee! Are you excited yet?
So, we're down to Chubb and Hill right? Yeah... me too, but you know what that means; there will be a huge dead cap figure in their future. On top of the dead cap coming from Hoard and Jones.
Sure... go ahead... these things are invisible right?? Suuuure they are. The cap isn't real; that guy on the podcast said so.
We are heading for a couple of years with 20-30M dead caps if we do this... even worse if we stupidly sign any tier 1 free agents this year. We have too much money tied up in non QBs to have this work for more than 2 years. Enjoy it... it won't last.
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