Some context for the Brees comparison

[Stoobz]

Yes Brees was a smart QB while Tua I think had one of the worst wonderlic scores. QB production is probably like 90% mental to 10% physical (wild guess) and even though you can compare brees and tua physically I don’t think you can compare them mentally

Just a quick glance from various sources:

20 - Deshaun Watson - only list him because SO many Dolphins fans wanted him or still do. I've never been one of those.
15 - Dan Marino
15 - Donovan McNabb
15 - Jim Kelly
15 - Terry Bradshaw
13 - Lamar Jackson

There are reasons the wonderlic is almost trash. There is a list of bad QBs you've never heard of with high wonderlic scores.

 

[Mello Yello]

That simple statement sums up exactly why many do not want to invest what would likely be required in terms of both money and time.

The QBs you mentioned are widely seen as the best in the game today, precisely because they have skill sets (three distinctly different skillets) that allow them to do things that Tua hasn't the tools to call upon when it's the difference between a win and a loss.

For all the OPs time and effort to make a Brees comparison, the fact still remains Brees was an outlier. Expecting a similar career path is a bad bet, not even getting into the one Championship in 20 years issue. I mean are we now arguing that we should hitch our wagon to Tua for 16 more years in the hopes he can repeat Brees' very unlikely HOF path?

Too many get labeled as "haters". I don't really think there are many who actually hate Tua. He is, by all accounts, a good and humble guy. Most of his detractors simply do not believe physical abilities are on par with the best in the league today. That's a wholly valid, non biased criticism that, to use a Big O term, "blind a$$ fans" refuse to accept as a rather large shortcomming.

I'll give Miami fans a break because they live in the AFC where they watch Mahomes, Allen and Jackson. In the NFC, Tua would probably be the clear cut #1 guy or at least vying for that against Purdy, Prescott, Hurts, etc. who have all looked far from perfect in recent weeks. To say that Tua couldn't play the game and make the throws that Purdy did yesterday is foolish.

Then there's the fact that Josh Allen hasn't won a Super Bowl. He hasn't even been to one and he's been in the NFL for 6 seasons which is 50% longer than Tua. Ditto for Lamar Jackson. They've been building around him as a special player since he got there. They should be contending for a dang Super Bowl at some point. Hopefully for them they win it this year.

Mahomes is unique but so is situation in KC. He's got a HoF coach with one of the best staffs in football. The team was good when he arrived. They were already in the Playoffs. He got to sit for a year and learn the system behind a veteran in Alex Smith. He's been sitting in that same system now for 7 straight years. Early on he got to chuck it to two HoF receivers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Not to mention they consistently run the ball when it's there because that's Reid's MO. Mahomes is a freak to be sure, but all of that sounds like the exception to the rule doesn't it? That's the Tom Brady story all over again, the perfect storm of all things going right to ensure that a QB dominates--which he and the Chiefs have. We can't say the same for the Bills or Ravens yet. Let's not conflate the Chiefs success with the Bills or Ravens stories quite yet.

It's fine to love Josh Allen. He's clearly carrying Buffalo just like Marino did for us decades ago but dude, Marino and the Dolphins never got it done. The presence of Marino hardly mandated that every other NFL team go out and find 'their Marino.' Think about how many good teams won Lombardi trophies while Marino was putting up HoF stats.

Maybe the Dolphins fanbase will never be happy until they have another Marino? Maybe that's what this fanbase has become? Be that as it may, I'm not looking for Josh Allen or Dan Marino as much as the fans lust after those guys. I'm looking to win Super Bowls and that's often done with a more balanced team with a top-to-bottom roster and a QB who gets the job done. It's rarely that the QB is the clearcut best QB in the game. Rodgers won 1 title. Brees only got 1. It took Manning until his teams were more balanced.

In a world where pocket passers like Peyton, Eli, Matt Ryan, Flacco, Burrow, Goff, Stafford, Garoppolo, Wentz/Foles, Brees and Warner all made the Super Bowl in the post-rule change era, it's pretty rich to obsess about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson when they haven't even gotten there yet, let alone won multiple titles.

I get your obsession with QBs. It's fun. We all do it. But it's not reality.

 

[MrChadRico]

Drew Brees

20 seasons ('01 thru '20)

5 seasons in San Diego (rookie season on the bench)
15 seasons in New Orleans

Brees' by Team:
> 85 rating (SD)
> 102 rating (NO)

Brees' in 10-yr increments:
> 92 rating
> 105 rating

Brees' in 5-yr increments:
> 85 rating
> 96 rating
> 102 rating
> 108 rating

Brees' Cmp% in 5-yr increments:
> 62%
> 67%
> 68%
> 72%


Let's look at a few of Brees' most significant years.


2009 - The Saints go 13-3 and are the #1 seed. They win the Super Bowl.

Brees:
Cmp% - 70.6
Att - 514
Yds - 4,388
TD - 34
INT - 11
Y/A - 8.5

109.6 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159070

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159077


2011 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.

Brees:
Cmp% - 71.2
Att - 657
Yds - 5,476
TD - 46
INT - 14
Y/A - 8.3

110.6 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159071

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159076

2018 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.

Brees:
Cmp% - 74.4
Att - 489
Yds - 3,992
TD - 32
INT - 5
Y/A - 8.2

115.7 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159073

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159074



Take-Aways:

> Brees' legacy is based on what he did in the 2nd decade of his career.

> Brees cmp% rose steadily thru his career and it drove his elite passer rating near the end.

> Brees Int% wasn't great early on (~2.5%) but it dropped in the 2nd decade (~1.5%) which also drove his elite passer rating near the end.

> Brees was an iron man who only missed 4 games in 15-years between '04 and '18. Wow!

> Brees' attempts varied by year. Sometimes he threw 650 balls for 5,400-yds. Sometimes he threw 550 for 4,400-yds.

> Brees' weapons didn't carry him. He threw to a lot of okay receivers, bet very few great ones.

> Brees always had OL talent in front of him. His OL routinely made Pro Bowls and All-Pro lists.

> Brees had RB talent and his best teams often featured it: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, etc.

> The Saints D was horrible and held Brees back between '11 and '20 ranking as low as 28, 31 and 32 towards the end.



How does Tua compare?

I think Tua's already started his career much faster than Brees did. Brees was totally replaceable in San Diego with a 85 career rating thru 5 seasons.

Tua's 8.9 and 8.3 Y/A averages match Brees' best. For comparison, Brees lived in the high-7's and Tua's career average is already there.

Tua's TD% is basically the same. The INT% is a perfect match. Brees' was worse early on and didn't really improve until Brees had been in the league for a decade.

Tua's sack rate of 5% isn't bad but Brees has a slight edge at 3.8% . Brees was the same as Tua early on though.


What does it mean?

I think it's fair to say that Tua is on track to at least match Drew Brees' production. The concern is whether Tua can turn into the iron man that Brees did. In fairness, Brees did miss 6 games in his first 3 seasons as a starter so even Brees stumbled a bit early on. He also had to fight through the devastating injury. Instead of a hip, it was his shoulder. He just got over it. Can Tua? Maybe this year is the first of many healthy seasons for Tua? But that is a question.

I think it's also possible that Miami has over-compensated with WR talent. Tua was serviceable with crap WRs in '20 and '21 and we didn't give him enough credit for that. I don't think he expressly needed Tyreek Hill and it's possible that the entire offense has become too lop-sided in featuring Hill. Whether McDaniel selfishly wanted to get Hill to 2,000-yds or Waddle's injuries played a factor in forcing the ball to Hill, we should probably respect the fact that what Brees proved--and to a large extent Tua has done this as well--is that a good pocket QB doesn't need the best WRs in the game.

It's more about having WRs who are where they're supposed to be. It's true that Brees often had a star guy like Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham but those were spread over 15 seasons. He often had just 1-2 of those at a time. The truth is that Robert Meachem, Willie Snead, Devery Henderson, Ted Ginn, Jeremy Shockey and guys like that did a lot of the work, too. We certainly don't remember those guys as being historically great--because they weren't.

The Saints did a far better job building an OL in front of Brees. What Miami has is an embarrassment in comparison. This is one of those areas where it's not close. Brees also had a lot of guys return to that OL year-in, year-out as well. There was not only some high-level talent but some continuity. This needs to be fixed in Miami because it's one of those areas you could end up really wasting Tua's career.

The Saints did ultimately waste Brees' career. It should be said. When you have one of the best QBs in the NFL and your scoring defense is ranked consistently in the bottom 3rd in the league (even as bad as #31 and #32), you're doing a terrible job. To Grier's credit, Miami hasn't failed in this area. Miami's problem is the OL but failure absolutely IS in the cards if you can't resolve your biggest areas of concern.


What do we do?

I think we commit to Tua long-term and try to fix the OL. I don't think Tua is a our Carson Wentz--some random guy who had 2 great statistical seasons and then disappears. I think Tua is a legit great QB and I think he'll only improve with experience and longevity. Statistically he's delivering what winning teams get from their QB. Brees' playoff success was tied to the completeness of his team and that'll be true of Tua as well. It was true for Brady in NE if we're being honest. Good QBs get better over time and for Tua, that's pretty awesome considering he's already doing things it took Brees longer to do.

I wonder if we need to sort out the WR situation. It can't be all Tyreek Hill. I don't know that you dump him but you've got way too much attention going to WR1 right now and the other stuff has to get better and become more of the focus. It's easy to imagine Waddle being more involved once he's healthy and extending him contractually after that.

It's hard to think of Miami doing to unimaginable--trading Hill--but the Saints never had a guy like him and I don't think Brees would've been better forcing it to a single WR. They featured a crew of good WRs who their QB elevated and a slew of talented RBs who the OC used to great effect. That's what Miami needs to start doing. It's uncomfortable, but trading Hill while he has extreme value might be the crazy move you consider if it helps your defense and your OL.

I won't say more because it could go either way. Losing Hill wouldn't make you better but it would open a new doorway and that future might be the one with the better overall team roster. It's something to think about. Swapping Tyreek for a better OL would fix a more fundamental issue IMHO and the I think this Brees-type QB is good enough to make it work. It's kind of a nuclear option but we do live in a nuclear world.

Here's something to think about:

View attachment 159079

Brees never had Colston, Cooks or Graham account for more than 20-25% of his passing yards. The only exception during Brees' 15-yr streak of staying healthy was Michael Thomas at 35% in 2018.

This post took an incredible amount of work, I don't agree with all of it but I gotta commend your effort. Impressive.

 

[Mello Yello]

Also, I think you can like Tua, maybe even love the guy, and still be able to talk about his flaws.

Tua did come up short this year in some big situations. Namely the KC regular season game and the end of the Buffalo game for the AFC East title. He definitely wasn't as clutch as he's been in the past.

I prefer quarterbacks who can get out of the pocket and make plays with their legs. Not necessarily Lamar Jackson, but I love how Mahomes does it. Keeping the defense honest a few times a game.

That's not to say Miami can't win with Tua, but he has to play smarter than these other quarterbacks and make fewer mistakes. My opinion, anyway.

Nobody advocated for drafting Tua because they thought he'd be constrained to the pocket 24/7. He didn't sit in the pocket all the time at Alabama. He played a Russell Wilson style of football making a few runs when they were there. He showed that to us against Arizona in 2020 and his level of athleticism was fine. We saw Purdy, who isn't that mobile and only ran for 144-yds the entire season, run yesterday to great effect. It doesn't take much and Tua can totally do it.

I think the most obvious thing to say is that injuries (particularly scary and career-threatening ones) have led to a couple of years of him playing especially safe. That's totally understandable.

The pendulum has probably swung too far. Truth is, he didn't get injured running beyond the LoS and there's no reason he can't do it a bit more. He got injured because he held the ball too long and because he tried to outrun more athletic DL players bearing down on him. We can also blame Jesse Davis a bit for '21. It's all avoidable with smart play. There's literally no reason at all Tua can't be running more.

In '18 at Bama, Tua ran for 13-yds per game.

In '20 and '21 under Flores' offense, Tua ran for 10-yds a game. That's slightly higher than Purdy this year and just under Prescott.

In '22 and '23 Tua ran for 5-yds a game--a clear decrease to almost nothing.

It's very obvious he just stopped doing it to protect himself and ensure he played all season.
It helped the team and his negotiating position and now he can return to being who he was before.

It's a conscious choice and an easy fix.

 

[NY8123]

Drew Brees had a very high IQ . Made great decisions hopefully this will come to Tua going forward.

A hi IQ doesn't necessarily mean decisive and quick thinking. In fact, at times I've observed the exact opposite in brilliant individuals I've worked with thru the years. They can get bogged down all the variables and outcomes when you need to make a decision based on "your gut".

It's a balance on the field, one point in this case is a guy I've seen routinely knocked for his IQ, Lamar Jackson. This dude is owed some apologies from a lot of people. His pocket passing this year is beyond anything I thought he'd accomplish, he is making high level throws and reading the D on the next level.

Decisiveness is the key to a great NFL QB, they need to have a firm understanding of the offensive and how the defense matches up and then you have to make that decision in an instant and not over analyze ****.

My one criticism of McDaniel and Tua and this offense in general is at times they seem to over analyze ****. Short yardage is a prefect example, it seems like the think "well the D knows we are gonna run on 3rd and 4th and short so let's do x, y, z."

Just pound the ball into the line, see what happens, stop over thinking it.

 

[Mello Yello]

To the OPs point, a lot of shorter QBs that have been successful have really good interior OLs. And when the inside OL is a liability, you see teams throw a lot at getting inside pressure (like the eagles game this year when eich was at center). It seems to disrupt shorter QBs more because they can't see over the middle when the pressure comes from the front of the pocket. It also explains why Payton always seemed to prioritize guards in FA and the draft when the trend in most of the league was to cheap out on guard and spend up on tackles.

Ding! Ding! Ding!


People act like there's no path forward. Bro, it's easy to see. We're starting Liam Eichenberg and Robert Jones and we have people saying we need to replace the QB.

 

[Mello Yello]

Tua has extremely limited mobility in comparison to Brees.

IDK if I would go that far, but Brees was a plus athlete, who probably could have played baseball had he chose to.

A better overall athlete than Tua, though.

Brees ran for 752 total yards in his regular season career spanning 287 games.

That's an average of 2.6 yards per game.

Even in his worst ever year protecting himself from injury Tua was double that.

Brees literally had 4 seasons where he rushed for negative yards.

C'mon.

 

[Mello Yello]

Mahomes is for sure an outlier, Allen and Jackson qualify athletically as outliers but haven't really won anything yet.

So you can say Brees is an outlier, and you'd be right. But so is Mahomes.

If the goal is to win, which is the more likely to happen, finding a 'Mahomes' or building around a 'Brees' ?

It's worse...it's hoping to magically land a Mahomes when you already have a Brees.

Put this in perspective guys.

 

[Mach2]

Brees ran for 752 total yards in his regular season career spanning 287 games.

That's an average of 2.6 yards per game.

Even in his worst ever year protecting himself from injury Tua was double that.

Brees literally had 4 seasons where he rushed for negative yards.

C'mon.

The context of the discussion had nothing to do with rushing. It was about movement in the pocket and overall athletic ability.

 

[MiamiDolfan85]

Drew Brees

20 seasons ('01 thru '20)

5 seasons in San Diego (rookie season on the bench)
15 seasons in New Orleans

Brees' by Team:
> 85 rating (SD)
> 102 rating (NO)

Brees' in 10-yr increments:
> 92 rating
> 105 rating

Brees' in 5-yr increments:
> 85 rating
> 96 rating
> 102 rating
> 108 rating

Brees' Cmp% in 5-yr increments:
> 62%
> 67%
> 68%
> 72%


Let's look at a few of Brees' most significant years.


2009 - The Saints go 13-3 and are the #1 seed. They win the Super Bowl.

Brees:
Cmp% - 70.6
Att - 514
Yds - 4,388
TD - 34
INT - 11
Y/A - 8.5

109.6 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159070

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159077


2011 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.

Brees:
Cmp% - 71.2
Att - 657
Yds - 5,476
TD - 46
INT - 14
Y/A - 8.3

110.6 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159071

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159076

2018 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.

Brees:
Cmp% - 74.4
Att - 489
Yds - 3,992
TD - 32
INT - 5
Y/A - 8.2

115.7 rating

Saints Weaponry:
View attachment 159073

Strength of Roster:
View attachment 159074



Take-Aways:

> Brees' legacy is based on what he did in the 2nd decade of his career.

> Brees cmp% rose steadily thru his career and it drove his elite passer rating near the end.

> Brees Int% wasn't great early on (~2.5%) but it dropped in the 2nd decade (~1.5%) which also drove his elite passer rating near the end.

> Brees was an iron man who only missed 4 games in 15-years between '04 and '18. Wow!

> Brees' attempts varied by year. Sometimes he threw 650 balls for 5,400-yds. Sometimes he threw 550 for 4,400-yds.

> Brees' weapons didn't carry him. He threw to a lot of okay receivers, bet very few great ones.

> Brees always had OL talent in front of him. His OL routinely made Pro Bowls and All-Pro lists.

> Brees had RB talent and his best teams often featured it: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, etc.

> The Saints D was horrible and held Brees back between '11 and '20 ranking as low as 28, 31 and 32 towards the end.



How does Tua compare?

I think Tua's already started his career much faster than Brees did. Brees was totally replaceable in San Diego with a 85 career rating thru 5 seasons.

Tua's 8.9 and 8.3 Y/A averages match Brees' best. For comparison, Brees lived in the high-7's and Tua's career average is already there.

Tua's TD% is basically the same. The INT% is a perfect match. Brees' was worse early on and didn't really improve until Brees had been in the league for a decade.

Tua's sack rate of 5% isn't bad but Brees has a slight edge at 3.8% . Brees was the same as Tua early on though.


What does it mean?

I think it's fair to say that Tua is on track to at least match Drew Brees' production. The concern is whether Tua can turn into the iron man that Brees did. In fairness, Brees did miss 6 games in his first 3 seasons as a starter so even Brees stumbled a bit early on. He also had to fight through the devastating injury. Instead of a hip, it was his shoulder. He just got over it. Can Tua? Maybe this year is the first of many healthy seasons for Tua? But that is a question.

I think it's also possible that Miami has over-compensated with WR talent. Tua was serviceable with crap WRs in '20 and '21 and we didn't give him enough credit for that. I don't think he expressly needed Tyreek Hill and it's possible that the entire offense has become too lop-sided in featuring Hill. Whether McDaniel selfishly wanted to get Hill to 2,000-yds or Waddle's injuries played a factor in forcing the ball to Hill, we should probably respect the fact that what Brees proved--and to a large extent Tua has done this as well--is that a good pocket QB doesn't need the best WRs in the game.

It's more about having WRs who are where they're supposed to be. It's true that Brees often had a star guy like Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham but those were spread over 15 seasons. He often had just 1-2 of those at a time. The truth is that Robert Meachem, Willie Snead, Devery Henderson, Ted Ginn, Jeremy Shockey and guys like that did a lot of the work, too. We certainly don't remember those guys as being historically great--because they weren't.

The Saints did a far better job building an OL in front of Brees. What Miami has is an embarrassment in comparison. This is one of those areas where it's not close. Brees also had a lot of guys return to that OL year-in, year-out as well. There was not only some high-level talent but some continuity. This needs to be fixed in Miami because it's one of those areas you could end up really wasting Tua's career.

The Saints did ultimately waste Brees' career. It should be said. When you have one of the best QBs in the NFL and your scoring defense is ranked consistently in the bottom 3rd in the league (even as bad as #31 and #32), you're doing a terrible job. To Grier's credit, Miami hasn't failed in this area. Miami's problem is the OL but failure absolutely IS in the cards if you can't resolve your biggest areas of concern.


What do we do?

I think we commit to Tua long-term and try to fix the OL. I don't think Tua is a our Carson Wentz--some random guy who had 2 great statistical seasons and then disappears. I think Tua is a legit great QB and I think he'll only improve with experience and longevity. Statistically he's delivering what winning teams get from their QB. Brees' playoff success was tied to the completeness of his team and that'll be true of Tua as well. It was true for Brady in NE if we're being honest. Good QBs get better over time and for Tua, that's pretty awesome considering he's already doing things it took Brees longer to do.

I wonder if we need to sort out the WR situation. It can't be all Tyreek Hill. I don't know that you dump him but you've got way too much attention going to WR1 right now and the other stuff has to get better and become more of the focus. It's easy to imagine Waddle being more involved once he's healthy and extending him contractually after that.

It's hard to think of Miami doing to unimaginable--trading Hill--but the Saints never had a guy like him and I don't think Brees would've been better forcing it to a single WR. They featured a crew of good WRs who their QB elevated and a slew of talented RBs who the OC used to great effect. That's what Miami needs to start doing. It's uncomfortable, but trading Hill while he has extreme value might be the crazy move you consider if it helps your defense and your OL.

I won't say more because it could go either way. Losing Hill wouldn't make you better but it would open a new doorway and that future might be the one with the better overall team roster. It's something to think about. Swapping Tyreek for a better OL would fix a more fundamental issue IMHO and the I think this Brees-type QB is good enough to make it work. It's kind of a nuclear option but we do live in a nuclear world.

Here's something to think about:

View attachment 159079

Brees never had Colston, Cooks or Graham account for more than 20-25% of his passing yards. The only exception during Brees' 15-yr streak of staying healthy was Michael Thomas at 35% in 2018.

Yea, but Brees played in a dome for one, in a warm weather division for two.

 

[YorkshirePhin]

Brees ran for 752 total yards in his regular season career spanning 287 games.

That's an average of 2.6 yards per game.

Even in his worst ever year protecting himself from injury Tua was double that.

Brees literally had 4 seasons where he rushed for negative yards.

C'mon.

Difference between rushing and having the ability to avoid the pass rush.

 

[PhinFan1968]

And when we play good defenses, they can blanket Hill. That being said, our staff needs to get a bigger bodied receiver or TE to go with the fast receiver types. Utilize them in the gameplan. If not, were gonna get manhandled every time. Our team has proven that having all speed on the field was stoppable. It was like an overrated mirage. Gotta mix it up next season.

Lasted about as long as the wildcat eh?

 

[OGMarinofan]

Brees was clutch, Tua is not. Stats are cute but how do you perform when you have to win, that’s the only thing that matters. In those moments, Tua folds!

 

[cltchperf]

Drew Brees had a very high IQ . Made great decisions hopefully this will come to Tua going forward.

Brees was more athletic than thought too. Tua used to have some, but Drew could extend plays better and make passes moving around as well throwing

 

[LargoFin]

Maybe Sean Payton will take him for that 12 overall pick, he likes second contract Drew Brees type quarterbacks.