Some context for the Brees comparison

[dolphinron24]

Maybe people are not talking about rushing yards, and just being athletic enough to evade a pash rush, and being able to extend plays. Marino was very athletic in the pocket, not so much for running the ball.

His pocket presence is good, but I get what you are saying about extending plays

 

[Mach2]

His pocket presence is good, but I get what you are saying about extending plays

Just to play devil's advocate, Tua may be being coached to not do too much of that due to injury concerns.

There are critical times when that needs to be thrown out the window, though.

 

[Bob512]

Lol....not at all. I just think the comp is invalid. When ppl justify it with things that don't make sense from a basic analysis of the numbers from a success/failure POV, I point it out.

Take what you said for instance.

Brees is an example of why you don't give up on a player.

All I'm saying is that for every Brees, there are far more who never attain his status.

If you give me one example, and I can give you numerous counter examples, then the basic reasoning is flawed. Is it not?

I understand emotions are not necessarily rational, but there's nothing wrong with pointing out that irrationality. That's really what critical thinking is. Making a judgement based on realities, rather than emotions.

Don't shoot the messenger......

All good.....and I think if the comp is beyond Brees that is a decent argument to make. But it is changing the question/conversation from what I was responding to and what the post was about

 

[AgentXof12]

I don't really buy that narrative that Tua isn't clutch or doesn't show up in big games. I do buy the narrative that Tua is let down or given a subpar setup in those big games. If you placed Tua under a coach who has a stellar game plan for a terrific defense, I believe Tua would thrive just like he thrives under game plans to take on lesser opponents. It's all about what you are trying to do and against who you're trying it. If the game plan involved passing to a good TE against a great defense whose linebackers are a mismatch for the TE, Tua is going to excel. If you ask Tua to make quick short passes to players at or behind the LOS with excellent blocking schemes, he's gonna look more like Brady. These things are more or less a given -- it's what you're asking Tua to do. He has some physical limitations, but one of them is not attacking the end zone from the 30 yard line -- in this the guy has a killer instinct. He just needs a better offensive game plan handed to him.

 

[AgentXof12]

Maybe people are not talking about rushing yards, and just being athletic enough to evade a pash rush, and being able to extend plays. Marino was very athletic in the pocket, not so much for running the ball.

They've clearly coached Tua to be far more conservative in the pocket. He doesn't roll out much anymore. He throws the ball away quickly. He goes down much more easily. And the times when he is allowed to leave the pocket and run for yards, he does the unthinkable and dives head first into oncoming tacklers..... things you really don't want him doing out there.

 

[Mello Yello]

Lol....not at all. I just think the comp is invalid. When ppl justify it with things that don't make sense from a basic analysis of the numbers from a success/failure POV, I point it out.

Take what you said for instance.

Brees is an example of why you don't give up on a player.

All I'm saying is that for every Brees, there are far more who never attain his status.

If you give me one example, and I can give you numerous counter examples, then the basic reasoning is flawed. Is it not?

I understand emotions are not necessarily rational, but there's nothing wrong with pointing out that irrationality. That's really what critical thinking is. Making a judgement based on realities, rather than emotions.

Don't shoot the messenger......

I totally respect the pushback. Like you, I recognize the separation between a guy we've seen be productive for 2 years in a system built around him and watching someone earn a HoF induction doing it for 15 years. There's a difference and obviously Tua has a lot of stats and W's to put up over the next decade to literally be on the same level. But at the same time, losing to a team doesn't mean you have to go out and copy their architecture and beat them by doing it better. You're not going to out-Chiefs the Chiefs or out-Mahomes the man himself. You have to find you own way to do it.

The point of this thread was to help point out some uncomfortable realities of the "we need a ___" arguments. Mahomes is one of the best passers we've ever seen and on top of that he can scramble. Lamar Jackson is one of the best scramblers we've ever seen and on top of that he can throw. This may be a topic for another thread but maybe Josh Allen's issue is that he's stuck in the middle trying to find a balance neither of those prior two achieve. Lamar Jackson is unapologetic about running often totaling 1,000-yds or more on the ground and Mahomes isn't trying to run for the sake of it, usually totaling around 350-yds. Allen is smack dab in the middle trying to be a combination of the two.

It's fine to say you like Josh Allen, but it's not convincing to say the Bills are in great position when he literally loses a week after the Dolphins did - to the same team - doing so in his own building in better conditions. Granted the Bills put up a fight but they scored 0 in the 4th quarter and lost with the ball in their hands unable to score when it mattered most. Josh Allen has been in that offense for 2-3x longer than Tua as well. The expectations are higher which you also kind of ignore.


Tua began his Playoff career 0-1. Interestingly, Brees started his Playoff career 0-1 as well and actually didn't win a Playoff game until season #6. In the end, Brees was 9-9 in the Playoffs, a .500 record.

That's not unique either. Josh Allen also began his Playoff career 0-1 losing on the road to the Houston Texans with an offensive display that embodied the word "inept". Allen is currently 5-5 in the Playoffs, another .500 QB.

Lamar Jackson began 0-2 and is currently 2-3. You have to give guys a chance and have a reasonable amount of patience. You don't barnstorm into the hardest games and instantly start collecting W's.

By contrast to almost everyone else in history, Mahomes is 13-3 in the Playoffs. It's just not fair to judge anyone by that level of ridiculous success. Tom Brady started out 9-0 and got to 14-2 at one point, even better than Mahomes. He ultimately ended at 35-13 in the Playoffs. Some guys just land in perfect situations.

That is not something you get to point to and say, 'do that.' Every team in the NFL wishes they could win the lottery with the veteran HC, a generational QB, a strong roster with HoF hits (e.g. Gronk, Kelce, etc), a particularly weak division, etc.

Saying, 'we need to find our Pat Mahomes' is a bit like suggesting someone win the lottery. You're not wrong. It would help. But it's not useful advice and it doesn't convince anyone that you've actually thought things out.

 

[NBP81]

Respect for a ton of work. One HUGE caveat. Look at Brees pre-rule changes of 2007 and post-rule changes. It’s staggering. It’s actually staggering for Brady, Manning etc - another brother did an in-depth analysis of it a few years back on this site. Point is, the starting place in terms of comparing QBs early in their careers pre 2007 to today is very very different.

rule change was 2004

 

[NBP81]

Lol....not at all. I just think the comp is invalid. When ppl justify it with things that don't make sense from a basic analysis of the numbers from a success/failure POV, I point it out.

Take what you said for instance.

Brees is an example of why you don't give up on a player.

All I'm saying is that for every Brees, there are far more who never attain his status.

If you give me one example, and I can give you numerous counter examples, then the basic reasoning is flawed. Is it not?

I understand emotions are not necessarily rational, but there's nothing wrong with pointing out that irrationality. That's really what critical thinking is. Making a judgement based on realities, rather than emotions.

Don't shoot the messenger......

With more sample size then... Since the rule change in 2004, through the first 50 games of their career... Only 6 QBs had a better rating than Tua at that point and 7 had higher yards per pass attempts...

 

[Mach2]

With more sample size then... Since the rule change in 2004, through the first 50 games of their career... Only 6 QBs had a better rating than Tua at that point and 7 had higher yards per pass attempts...

OK. What is the point? That Tua has more upside than everyone except 6 or 7 guys? I do not believe that to be true. It certainly means nothing in terms of Brees.

That has zero to do with my post nor, IMO, is all that meaningful in terms of career accomplishments.

Just out of curiosity, who were the top 6 and 7?

 

[NBP81]

OK. What is the point? That Tua has more upside than everyone except 6 or 7 guys? I do not believe that to be true. It certainly means nothing in terms of Brees.

That has zero to do with my post nor, IMO, is all that meaningful in terms of career accomplishments.

Just out of curiosity, who were the top 6 and 7?

Can't get the resizing to work but...

Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Lamar Jackson
Jimmy G
Joe Burrow
Tua
Russel Wilson
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Justin Herbert

 

[Mach2]

View attachment 159190

Can't get the resizing to work but...

Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Lamar Jackson
Jimmy G
Joe Burrow
Tua
Russel Wilson
Dak Prescott
Aaron Rodgers
Justin Herbert

Do you believe the fact that all happen to be active players is indicative of anything? It looks to me like Tua's physical "tools" are really only comparable to Jimmy G, or possibly Wilson on a bad day. Or don't you think that has importance? I already know that you will tap dance and give a multi sentence answer, rather than a simple yes, or know. I do agree that there are multiple factors that make up a good QB, but that list is chock full of better physical specimens and athletes. There is a reason for that. It is an advantage.

 

[mega-fin-love]

The difference between Drew Brees and Tua:



And that translated to how he played on the field, in terms of grit and determination in the face of adversity.

Agreed. i believe this is the main difference. Unfortunately I don't think it's a trait that can really be learned. It's more about who you are.

 

[NBP81]

Do you believe the fact that all happen to be active players is indicative of anything?

Yes... When you're top 10 in production after 50 games to start your career, you're likely to play for a long time.

It looks to me like Tua's physical "tools" are really only comparable to Jimmy G, or possibly Wilson on a bad day. Or don't you think that has importance?

When it comes to arm strength, he's similar to Burrow and Watson. Accuracy, anticipation, quick release, CPU speed are all just as important as having a canon arm and running skills.

I already know that you will tap dance and give a multi sentence answer

**** your passive aggressive bullshit.

 

[Mach2]

Yes... When you're top 10 in production after 50 games to start your career, you're likely to play for a long time.

When it comes to arm strength, he's similar to Burrow and Watson. Accuracy, anticipation, quick release, CPU speed are all just as important as having a canon arm and running skills.

**** your passive aggressive bullshit.

It wasn't passive aggressive. It's just that we've had this debate many times previously and you always do the same thing by not giving a direct response. I understand completely why you are hesitant.

I was also correct in my assumption that you would refuse a straight, simple answer this time.

Do you think physical attributes are a distinct advantage?

Do you think Brees is an outlier, for whatever reason?

Look, like I said, there are several important factors. Hell, the overall team makeup is a factor, too.

I just wish you would acknowledge that superior athletic ability is important, as well.

You almost did when you said "just as important".

Almost every QB in history has had flaws to one extent or another. Why so hard to admit this one does as well?

We can all have different opinions on the value or diminished value of many different traits. But let's not pretend these traits are unimportant when evaluating.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

I like Tua. He's a good quarterback and Miami can win with him.

But the Brees comparisons need to stop. I get that we're comparing their development as athletes, not anything else, but even still it's off-target. Drew Brees entered the NFL in what really was a completely different era of football. Their careers are not comparable.