I decided to take a look at every first round WR selected since 2010 just to see how they panned out:
2010 - Demaryius Thomas (22) - Hit
2010 - Dez Bryant (24) - Hit
2011 - AJ Green (4) - Hit
2011 - Julio Jones (6) - Hit
2011 - Jonathan Baldwin (26) - Miss
2012 - Justin Blackmon (5) - Miss
2012 - Michael Floyd (13) - Miss
2012 - Kendall Wright (20) - Miss
2012 - AJ Jenkins (30) - Miss
2013 - Tavon Austin (8) - Miss
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27) - Hit
2014 - Sammy Watkins (4) - Miss (productive but not 4th overall productive)
2014 - Mike Evans (7) - Hit
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr (12) - Hit
2014 - Brandin Cooks (20) - Hit
2014 - Kelvin Benjamin (28) - Miss
2015 - Amari Cooper (4) - Hit
2015 - Kevin White (7) - Miss
2015 - Devante Parker (14) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Nelson Agholor (20) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Breshad Perriman (26) - Miss
2015 - Phillip Dorsett (29) - Miss
2016 - Corey Coleman (15) - Miss
2016 - Will Fuller (21) - 50/50 on this one - beast when healthy but can't stay healthy
2016 - Josh Doctson (22) - Miss
2016 - Laquon Treadwell (23) - Miss
2017 - Corey Davis (5) - Miss
2017 - Mike Williams (7) - Too early but looks promising if he can stay healthy
2017 - John Ross (9) - Miss
2018 - DJ Moore (24) - Hit
2018 - Calvin Ridley (26) - Hit
2019 - Marquise Brown (25) - Too early
2019 - N'Keal Harry (32) - Too early
2020 - Henry Ruggs (12) - Too early
2020 - Jerry Jeudy (15) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - CeeDee Lamb (17) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - Jalen Raegor (21) - Too early
2020 - Justin Jefferson (22) - Early but looks like a massive steal
2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (25) - Too early
Summary:
Hit - 11
Miss - 16
50/50 - 3
Early but looks like a hit - 4
Early and could go either way - 5
Now since this discussion revolves more around top 10 WRs (Chase and Smith) let's look closer at those picks:
AJ Green - Was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his prime
Julio Jones - Has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he came in
Justin Blackmon - Off-field issues are what caused him to bust
Tavon Austin - This was considered a bad pick at the time, everyone knew Austin was a gadget player and shouldn't have gone this high
Sammy Watkins - Miss but managed to become a productive #2 WR
Mike Evans - One of the best receivers in the NFL
Amari Cooper - Arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL (lots of mouths to feed in Dallas so stats will suffer)
Kevin White - Injuries are the main thing that ruined Kevin White
Corey Davis - Miss (may be following Watkins path to become a productive #2 WR)
Mike Williams - Incomplete (Looks to be a solid player but injuries have derailed him)
John Ross- This was considered a terrible pick at the time and was one of the favorites to bust
Summary for top 10 picks:
Top receiver in the NFL - 4 (Green, Jones, Evans, Cooper)
Look to be solid #2's - 2 (Watkins, Davis)
Terrible picks at the time that proved to be terrible - 2 (Austin, Ross)
Bust due to injuries/off-field issues - 2 (Blackmon, White)
Incomplete - 1 (Williams)
So in the last 10 years, 11 WR's have gone in the top 10 and 4 of them have turned out to be some of the best in the NFL, 2 look to be solid #2's who will have long careers, 2 were huge reaches at the time and ended up being a miss, 2 never really had a chance due to injuries/suspensions and 1 is incomplete (imo). You also have to look at the draft itself, for example 2020 had no top 10 receivers but that's because it's considered one of the deepest WR drafts of all time and you could definitely argue that if you move some of those WR's to the 2012 or 2017 drafts they end up going top 10.
I see your point that many productive WR's are drafted in Rounds 2 or later but so are a ton of receivers that never pan out. Chase and Smith are two of the best WR prospects since Green and Julio came out and if we want to see what we have with Tua, I'd much rather surround him with top prospects who are much less likely to bust. There's no guarantee that they pan out of course, but if we pass on some of these guys and wait until the later rounds to grab skill positions, there's much more risk that we would be sending Tua out there with a very lackluster supporting cast that isn't much better than the 2020 group he had. We want to see what we have with Tua, let's surround him with top-end talent that he can grow with and see what he can do!!