T.O. said freshman Tua reminded him of Steve Young | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

T.O. said freshman Tua reminded him of Steve Young

I decided to take a look at every first round WR selected since 2010 just to see how they panned out:
2010 - Demaryius Thomas (22) - Hit
2010 - Dez Bryant (24) - Hit
2011 - AJ Green (4) - Hit
2011 - Julio Jones (6) - Hit
2011 - Jonathan Baldwin (26) - Miss
2012 - Justin Blackmon (5) - Miss
2012 - Michael Floyd (13) - Miss
2012 - Kendall Wright (20) - Miss
2012 - AJ Jenkins (30) - Miss
2013 - Tavon Austin (8) - Miss
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27) - Hit
2014 - Sammy Watkins (4) - Miss (productive but not 4th overall productive)
2014 - Mike Evans (7) - Hit
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr (12) - Hit
2014 - Brandin Cooks (20) - Hit
2014 - Kelvin Benjamin (28) - Miss
2015 - Amari Cooper (4) - Hit
2015 - Kevin White (7) - Miss
2015 - Devante Parker (14) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Nelson Agholor (20) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Breshad Perriman (26) - Miss
2015 - Phillip Dorsett (29) - Miss
2016 - Corey Coleman (15) - Miss
2016 - Will Fuller (21) - 50/50 on this one - beast when healthy but can't stay healthy
2016 - Josh Doctson (22) - Miss
2016 - Laquon Treadwell (23) - Miss
2017 - Corey Davis (5) - Miss
2017 - Mike Williams (7) - Too early but looks promising if he can stay healthy
2017 - John Ross (9) - Miss
2018 - DJ Moore (24) - Hit
2018 - Calvin Ridley (26) - Hit
2019 - Marquise Brown (25) - Too early
2019 - N'Keal Harry (32) - Too early
2020 - Henry Ruggs (12) - Too early
2020 - Jerry Jeudy (15) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - CeeDee Lamb (17) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - Jalen Raegor (21) - Too early
2020 - Justin Jefferson (22) - Early but looks like a massive steal
2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (25) - Too early

Summary:
Hit - 11
Miss - 16
50/50 - 3
Early but looks like a hit - 4
Early and could go either way - 5

Now since this discussion revolves more around top 10 WRs (Chase and Smith) let's look closer at those picks:
AJ Green - Was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his prime
Julio Jones - Has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he came in
Justin Blackmon - Off-field issues are what caused him to bust
Tavon Austin - This was considered a bad pick at the time, everyone knew Austin was a gadget player and shouldn't have gone this high
Sammy Watkins - Miss but managed to become a productive #2 WR
Mike Evans - One of the best receivers in the NFL
Amari Cooper - Arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL (lots of mouths to feed in Dallas so stats will suffer)
Kevin White - Injuries are the main thing that ruined Kevin White
Corey Davis - Miss (may be following Watkins path to become a productive #2 WR)
Mike Williams - Incomplete (Looks to be a solid player but injuries have derailed him)
John Ross- This was considered a terrible pick at the time and was one of the favorites to bust

Summary for top 10 picks:
Top receiver in the NFL - 4 (Green, Jones, Evans, Cooper)
Look to be solid #2's - 2 (Watkins, Davis)
Terrible picks at the time that proved to be terrible - 2 (Austin, Ross)
Bust due to injuries/off-field issues - 2 (Blackmon, White)
Incomplete - 1 (Williams)

So in the last 10 years, 11 WR's have gone in the top 10 and 4 of them have turned out to be some of the best in the NFL, 2 look to be solid #2's who will have long careers, 2 were huge reaches at the time and ended up being a miss, 2 never really had a chance due to injuries/suspensions and 1 is incomplete (imo). You also have to look at the draft itself, for example 2020 had no top 10 receivers but that's because it's considered one of the deepest WR drafts of all time and you could definitely argue that if you move some of those WR's to the 2012 or 2017 drafts they end up going top 10.

I see your point that many productive WR's are drafted in Rounds 2 or later but so are a ton of receivers that never pan out. Chase and Smith are two of the best WR prospects since Green and Julio came out and if we want to see what we have with Tua, I'd much rather surround him with top prospects who are much less likely to bust. There's no guarantee that they pan out of course, but if we pass on some of these guys and wait until the later rounds to grab skill positions, there's much more risk that we would be sending Tua out there with a very lackluster supporting cast that isn't much better than the 2020 group he had. We want to see what we have with Tua, let's surround him with top-end talent that he can grow with and see what he can do!!
Do SEC WRs from the last 15 years. Its like a 70% hit rate.
 
Who are these players that would be more impactful?
They are call draft steals. We can find our guy outside the 1st round.
I decided to take a look at every first round WR selected since 2010 just to see how they panned out:
2010 - Demaryius Thomas (22) - Hit
2010 - Dez Bryant (24) - Hit
2011 - AJ Green (4) - Hit
2011 - Julio Jones (6) - Hit
2011 - Jonathan Baldwin (26) - Miss
2012 - Justin Blackmon (5) - Miss
2012 - Michael Floyd (13) - Miss
2012 - Kendall Wright (20) - Miss
2012 - AJ Jenkins (30) - Miss
2013 - Tavon Austin (8) - Miss
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27) - Hit
2014 - Sammy Watkins (4) - Miss (productive but not 4th overall productive)
2014 - Mike Evans (7) - Hit
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr (12) - Hit
2014 - Brandin Cooks (20) - Hit
2014 - Kelvin Benjamin (28) - Miss
2015 - Amari Cooper (4) - Hit
2015 - Kevin White (7) - Miss
2015 - Devante Parker (14) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Nelson Agholor (20) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Breshad Perriman (26) - Miss
2015 - Phillip Dorsett (29) - Miss
2016 - Corey Coleman (15) - Miss
2016 - Will Fuller (21) - 50/50 on this one - beast when healthy but can't stay healthy
2016 - Josh Doctson (22) - Miss
2016 - Laquon Treadwell (23) - Miss
2017 - Corey Davis (5) - Miss
2017 - Mike Williams (7) - Too early but looks promising if he can stay healthy
2017 - John Ross (9) - Miss
2018 - DJ Moore (24) - Hit
2018 - Calvin Ridley (26) - Hit
2019 - Marquise Brown (25) - Too early
2019 - N'Keal Harry (32) - Too early
2020 - Henry Ruggs (12) - Too early
2020 - Jerry Jeudy (15) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - CeeDee Lamb (17) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - Jalen Raegor (21) - Too early
2020 - Justin Jefferson (22) - Early but looks like a massive steal
2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (25) - Too early

Summary:
Hit - 11
Miss - 16
50/50 - 3
Early but looks like a hit - 4
Early and could go either way - 5

Now since this discussion revolves more around top 10 WRs (Chase and Smith) let's look closer at those picks:
AJ Green - Was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his prime
Julio Jones - Has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he came in
Justin Blackmon - Off-field issues are what caused him to bust
Tavon Austin - This was considered a bad pick at the time, everyone knew Austin was a gadget player and shouldn't have gone this high
Sammy Watkins - Miss but managed to become a productive #2 WR
Mike Evans - One of the best receivers in the NFL
Amari Cooper - Arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL (lots of mouths to feed in Dallas so stats will suffer)
Kevin White - Injuries are the main thing that ruined Kevin White
Corey Davis - Miss (may be following Watkins path to become a productive #2 WR)
Mike Williams - Incomplete (Looks to be a solid player but injuries have derailed him)
John Ross- This was considered a terrible pick at the time and was one of the favorites to bust

Summary for top 10 picks:
Top receiver in the NFL - 4 (Green, Jones, Evans, Cooper)
Look to be solid #2's - 2 (Watkins, Davis)
Terrible picks at the time that proved to be terrible - 2 (Austin, Ross)
Bust due to injuries/off-field issues - 2 (Blackmon, White)
Incomplete - 1 (Williams)

So in the last 10 years, 11 WR's have gone in the top 10 and 4 of them have turned out to be some of the best in the NFL, 2 look to be solid #2's who will have long careers, 2 were huge reaches at the time and ended up being a miss, 2 never really had a chance due to injuries/suspensions and 1 is incomplete (imo). You also have to look at the draft itself, for example 2020 had no top 10 receivers but that's because it's considered one of the deepest WR drafts of all time and you could definitely argue that if you move some of those WR's to the 2012 or 2017 drafts they end up going top 10.

I see your point that many productive WR's are drafted in Rounds 2 or later but so are a ton of receivers that never pan out. Chase and Smith are two of the best WR prospects since Green and Julio came out and if we want to see what we have with Tua, I'd much rather surround him with top prospects who are much less likely to bust. There's no guarantee that they pan out of course, but if we pass on some of these guys and wait until the later rounds to grab skill positions, there's much more risk that we would be sending Tua out there with a very lackluster supporting cast that isn't much better than the 2020 group he had. We want to see what we have with Tua, let's surround him with top-end talent that he can grow with and see what he can do!!
Great post but based on this list alone even Devante parker wasn't worth the pick. Just about almost every receiver you listed as 50/50. We would have to create another thread to look at what player would have been a better option for those teams but hindsight is 20/20.

I used the all pro as a ceiling level so by those standards alone out of 77 picks spanning two decades the success rate is very low. These are just numbers at the end of the day that end up just picturing a story. Great teams develop talent. The pre draft hype is toxic. This is a passing league and if we don't have the right players or coaching personnel we are going to flop.
 
I decided to take a look at every first round WR selected since 2010 just to see how they panned out:
2010 - Demaryius Thomas (22) - Hit
2010 - Dez Bryant (24) - Hit
2011 - AJ Green (4) - Hit
2011 - Julio Jones (6) - Hit
2011 - Jonathan Baldwin (26) - Miss
2012 - Justin Blackmon (5) - Miss
2012 - Michael Floyd (13) - Miss
2012 - Kendall Wright (20) - Miss
2012 - AJ Jenkins (30) - Miss
2013 - Tavon Austin (8) - Miss
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27) - Hit
2014 - Sammy Watkins (4) - Miss (productive but not 4th overall productive)
2014 - Mike Evans (7) - Hit
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr (12) - Hit
2014 - Brandin Cooks (20) - Hit
2014 - Kelvin Benjamin (28) - Miss
2015 - Amari Cooper (4) - Hit
2015 - Kevin White (7) - Miss
2015 - Devante Parker (14) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Nelson Agholor (20) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Breshad Perriman (26) - Miss
2015 - Phillip Dorsett (29) - Miss
2016 - Corey Coleman (15) - Miss
2016 - Will Fuller (21) - 50/50 on this one - beast when healthy but can't stay healthy
2016 - Josh Doctson (22) - Miss
2016 - Laquon Treadwell (23) - Miss
2017 - Corey Davis (5) - Miss
2017 - Mike Williams (7) - Too early but looks promising if he can stay healthy
2017 - John Ross (9) - Miss
2018 - DJ Moore (24) - Hit
2018 - Calvin Ridley (26) - Hit
2019 - Marquise Brown (25) - Too early
2019 - N'Keal Harry (32) - Too early
2020 - Henry Ruggs (12) - Too early
2020 - Jerry Jeudy (15) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - CeeDee Lamb (17) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - Jalen Raegor (21) - Too early
2020 - Justin Jefferson (22) - Early but looks like a massive steal
2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (25) - Too early

Summary:
Hit - 11
Miss - 16
50/50 - 3
Early but looks like a hit - 4
Early and could go either way - 5

Now since this discussion revolves more around top 10 WRs (Chase and Smith) let's look closer at those picks:
AJ Green - Was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his prime
Julio Jones - Has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he came in
Justin Blackmon - Off-field issues are what caused him to bust
Tavon Austin - This was considered a bad pick at the time, everyone knew Austin was a gadget player and shouldn't have gone this high
Sammy Watkins - Miss but managed to become a productive #2 WR
Mike Evans - One of the best receivers in the NFL
Amari Cooper - Arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL (lots of mouths to feed in Dallas so stats will suffer)
Kevin White - Injuries are the main thing that ruined Kevin White
Corey Davis - Miss (may be following Watkins path to become a productive #2 WR)
Mike Williams - Incomplete (Looks to be a solid player but injuries have derailed him)
John Ross- This was considered a terrible pick at the time and was one of the favorites to bust

Summary for top 10 picks:
Top receiver in the NFL - 4 (Green, Jones, Evans, Cooper)
Look to be solid #2's - 2 (Watkins, Davis)
Terrible picks at the time that proved to be terrible - 2 (Austin, Ross)
Bust due to injuries/off-field issues - 2 (Blackmon, White)
Incomplete - 1 (Williams)

So in the last 10 years, 11 WR's have gone in the top 10 and 4 of them have turned out to be some of the best in the NFL, 2 look to be solid #2's who will have long careers, 2 were huge reaches at the time and ended up being a miss, 2 never really had a chance due to injuries/suspensions and 1 is incomplete (imo). You also have to look at the draft itself, for example 2020 had no top 10 receivers but that's because it's considered one of the deepest WR drafts of all time and you could definitely argue that if you move some of those WR's to the 2012 or 2017 drafts they end up going top 10.

I see your point that many productive WR's are drafted in Rounds 2 or later but so are a ton of receivers that never pan out. Chase and Smith are two of the best WR prospects since Green and Julio came out and if we want to see what we have with Tua, I'd much rather surround him with top prospects who are much less likely to bust. There's no guarantee that they pan out of course, but if we pass on some of these guys and wait until the later rounds to grab skill positions, there's much more risk that we would be sending Tua out there with a very lackluster supporting cast that isn't much better than the 2020 group he had. We want to see what we have with Tua, let's surround him with top-end talent that he can grow with and see what he can do!!

I made a post a few days ago of the best WR's in league right now and the majority of them were not 1st round picks. The value of the WR position is just not great especially with a top 5 pick or even a top 10 pick. I view WR's as being easily replaced, similar to the RB position but I think their is greater chance of finding a good WR than RB because the position is deeper. just look how many WR's were drafted last year and how well most of them played. Point is, I feel like we can (or should be able) to draft a good WR in any draft class, Steelers draft great WR's outside the 1st all the time.

Ideally, when drafting in the top 5, the positions with the most value are QB, Edge Rusher, and OT.
 
Owens was about DeVonta Smith's size when he left high school and went to Chattanooga, weighed about 170 for a long time. So skinny that Alabama, Auburn, and all the SEC schools to passed on him and let him go to Chattanooga.
Didn’t know that 👍
 
I think Tua will flourish right here with a solid training camp, new OC, his regular season game experience, having seen the Jets, Buffalo and New England and having gone through game planning, installing the offense and film study, to come out an experienced 23 year old guy ready to direct our offense. He has the quick release, accuracy and ability to read and react. He needs weapons and he will be a force. He is more accurate than Josh Allen, and I believe will be a better quarterback very quickly.
 
I don't have much faith right now in the team developing Tua. Results matter, and it is better that we all wait to see what the Team is going to do. Picking a WR in the first round as I previously said doesn't have a high upside for teams. Only 8 WR's taken in the first round since 2000 became All-Pro (first or second team), and 2 of them as returners (Ted Ginn being one of them). As much as Smith would be a nice pick, the team would be better off trading down. If Smith somehow lands on our lap then maybe, but there are other players in other positions that we would benefit more from. When we drafted Ted Ginn Jr. there were so many players available that we could have picked instead. We could have picked Patrick Willis (pro bowl, DPY), or just about anyone but him. His pick didn't improve the offense, and sent many people packing. If we really care about our offense we need to gather whatever we can through free agency, and build from there.
What if they cant move from 3. They can want to trade all they want but they might just be stuck. Your Right about Ginn he never did much here. What about J.Long and Tunsil great LTs on loosing team. I'd roll the dice on someone who can put up points. Thank I'm not the GM 🍻
 
What if they cant move from 3. They can want to trade all they want but they might just be stuck. Your Right about Ginn he never did much here. What about J.Long and Tunsil great LTs on loosing team. I'd roll the dice on someone who can put up points. Thank I'm not the GM 🍻
I mean let's be honest honest here bebo. Putting a winning team requires a lot of resources, and people that do a good job at it. As much as Jordan once said that everything starts with the players, he was actually wrong. It took a GM, and a good Coach to build the Bulls. It was their job to bring the best players to win championships. While Krause ended up ruining the Bulls later, he was also one of the main reasons why they won 6 rings with him. He was the one that hand pick Jackson to succeed. He brought in Pippen, and on the 2nd run he brought in Rodman. All the players you mentioned were pieces to win, but they weren't enough. Even Grier right now seems like someone we should replace if he doesn't do the job he is suppose to do.
 
Tua had to deal with a below average OL. He had no running game and the worst WR Corp in the NFL. Yet because he wasn’t able to have a great half season with this ragtag offense, people are already considering him a bust and they want to trade away the future for a QB that was 4-12 because that team lacked talent.

Young was considered a bust in Tampa but went on to be a SB winning QB with the 49ers and eventually a member of the HOF. I have no idea if Tua will have a similar type career but I also have zero interest in seeing him traded to another team while trading away a ton of future draft picks for Watson.
 
I decided to take a look at every first round WR selected since 2010 just to see how they panned out:
2010 - Demaryius Thomas (22) - Hit
2010 - Dez Bryant (24) - Hit
2011 - AJ Green (4) - Hit
2011 - Julio Jones (6) - Hit
2011 - Jonathan Baldwin (26) - Miss
2012 - Justin Blackmon (5) - Miss
2012 - Michael Floyd (13) - Miss
2012 - Kendall Wright (20) - Miss
2012 - AJ Jenkins (30) - Miss
2013 - Tavon Austin (8) - Miss
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27) - Hit
2014 - Sammy Watkins (4) - Miss (productive but not 4th overall productive)
2014 - Mike Evans (7) - Hit
2014 - Odell Beckham Jr (12) - Hit
2014 - Brandin Cooks (20) - Hit
2014 - Kelvin Benjamin (28) - Miss
2015 - Amari Cooper (4) - Hit
2015 - Kevin White (7) - Miss
2015 - Devante Parker (14) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Nelson Agholor (20) - 50/50 on this one
2015 - Breshad Perriman (26) - Miss
2015 - Phillip Dorsett (29) - Miss
2016 - Corey Coleman (15) - Miss
2016 - Will Fuller (21) - 50/50 on this one - beast when healthy but can't stay healthy
2016 - Josh Doctson (22) - Miss
2016 - Laquon Treadwell (23) - Miss
2017 - Corey Davis (5) - Miss
2017 - Mike Williams (7) - Too early but looks promising if he can stay healthy
2017 - John Ross (9) - Miss
2018 - DJ Moore (24) - Hit
2018 - Calvin Ridley (26) - Hit
2019 - Marquise Brown (25) - Too early
2019 - N'Keal Harry (32) - Too early
2020 - Henry Ruggs (12) - Too early
2020 - Jerry Jeudy (15) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - CeeDee Lamb (17) - Too early but looks very promising
2020 - Jalen Raegor (21) - Too early
2020 - Justin Jefferson (22) - Early but looks like a massive steal
2020 - Brandon Aiyuk (25) - Too early

Summary:
Hit - 11
Miss - 16
50/50 - 3
Early but looks like a hit - 4
Early and could go either way - 5

Now since this discussion revolves more around top 10 WRs (Chase and Smith) let's look closer at those picks:
AJ Green - Was one of the best receivers in the NFL in his prime
Julio Jones - Has been one of the best receivers in the NFL since he came in
Justin Blackmon - Off-field issues are what caused him to bust
Tavon Austin - This was considered a bad pick at the time, everyone knew Austin was a gadget player and shouldn't have gone this high
Sammy Watkins - Miss but managed to become a productive #2 WR
Mike Evans - One of the best receivers in the NFL
Amari Cooper - Arguably one of the best receivers in the NFL (lots of mouths to feed in Dallas so stats will suffer)
Kevin White - Injuries are the main thing that ruined Kevin White
Corey Davis - Miss (may be following Watkins path to become a productive #2 WR)
Mike Williams - Incomplete (Looks to be a solid player but injuries have derailed him)
John Ross- This was considered a terrible pick at the time and was one of the favorites to bust

Summary for top 10 picks:
Top receiver in the NFL - 4 (Green, Jones, Evans, Cooper)
Look to be solid #2's - 2 (Watkins, Davis)
Terrible picks at the time that proved to be terrible - 2 (Austin, Ross)
Bust due to injuries/off-field issues - 2 (Blackmon, White)
Incomplete - 1 (Williams)

So in the last 10 years, 11 WR's have gone in the top 10 and 4 of them have turned out to be some of the best in the NFL, 2 look to be solid #2's who will have long careers, 2 were huge reaches at the time and ended up being a miss, 2 never really had a chance due to injuries/suspensions and 1 is incomplete (imo). You also have to look at the draft itself, for example 2020 had no top 10 receivers but that's because it's considered one of the deepest WR drafts of all time and you could definitely argue that if you move some of those WR's to the 2012 or 2017 drafts they end up going top 10.

I see your point that many productive WR's are drafted in Rounds 2 or later but so are a ton of receivers that never pan out. Chase and Smith are two of the best WR prospects since Green and Julio came out and if we want to see what we have with Tua, I'd much rather surround him with top prospects who are much less likely to bust. There's no guarantee that they pan out of course, but if we pass on some of these guys and wait until the later rounds to grab skill positions, there's much more risk that we would be sending Tua out there with a very lackluster supporting cast that isn't much better than the 2020 group he had. We want to see what we have with Tua, let's surround him with top-end talent that he can grow with and see what he can do!!

You can probably be confident Smith won't fail due to off field \ character issues. Smith was also captain of that WR unit which included Jeudy and Ruggs in his junior year. The only concern is with his weight but that's another debate.
 
Jaylen Waddle
I see what you are doing there. All the Alabama fans would get hard like concrete just for the possibility of us taking Waddle and Smith in the same round lol. If we somehow take a hard pass on Smith, and somehow Waddle slips to 18 why not? It would be interesting to see Waddle have a superior career in future retrospect.
 
I'm not big on Smith at all. Chase is a monster. Smith is pretty much just fast. NFL he won't get near separation he does in college. Chase imo is more pro material

Do you watch college football at all? Serious question...

Because I've never ever heard someone describe Smith's game as "he's just fast".

You can be skeptical of his size and how that will transition to NFL but saying the guy is successful simply because of his "speed" is just an inaccurate statement.

If anything, that was probably Smith' 2nd biggest concern with some people, other than his size, is that he doesn't have that elite speed..

So you should really pull up some of his highlights and look and how he creates separation and gets open...it's not even close to being all speed.
 
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