Tannehill versus Wilson: Did we draft the right quarterback? | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Tannehill versus Wilson: Did we draft the right quarterback?

The thing about this comparison is it's misguided... Wilson's throws are all calculated and measured. The team pounds the run and calls excellent pass plays to put him in a great position when he actually does have to throw. Miami asks Tannehill to routinely throw 40+ times a game, he's done that in almost half his games this season. The most pass attempts Russell Wilson has had to throw this season is 33.

Keep this stat in mind when you try to compare these two guys. I think Wilson has been great for the Seahawks, make no mistake about it, but trying to compare him to Tannehill is so off base. Tannehill is being asked to carry this team offensively every drive, every game, all season long. Russel Wilson is maybe asked to do it a couple drives a game, if that.


It shocks me how many Tannehill haters we have based on how he's performed for us, all things considered. He is far from polished, but the potential is staggering... and he's doing it with a **** OL, no running game, and a coaching staff that can't make a half time adjustment to save it's life. All that and he has shown MAJOR resilience and courage to be able to sit there and take shots. This kid has been doing excellent considering what he is working with, and all the haters just really have delusional expectations of where this team (coaching and all) really is.

I'll end with one final comment - even all of you who think shouright is such a hater... if you actually read the content of his posts all he ever says is that he wants to see Tannehill throw the ball less - which is what we need. If we have more offensive balance and Tannehill is throwing the ball 25-35x/game because we've been effectively balancing our offensive attack, you'd see the quality of his throws skyrocket.
 
Two things separate them. One is that Wilson had much more experience at the college level. Second, Wilson got drafted to a team that surrounds him with a top 5 D and top 5 running game.

Nevertheless Tannehill is 1-0 against Wilson.

Basically, way too early to compare. Let's wait for Tannehill to be surrounded by a much more compete team.


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Atila said:
all of you who think shouright is such a hater... if you actually read the content of his posts...
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Well hell, why do that when you can form an opinion beforehand and superimpose it onto the post, regardless of what the post says? ;)
 
Atila said:
I'll end with one final comment - even all of you who think shouright is such a hater... if you actually read the content of his posts all he ever says is that he wants to see Tannehill throw the ball less - which is what we need. If we have more offensive balance and Tannehill is throwing the ball 25-35x/game because we've been effectively balancing our offensive attack, you'd see the quality of his throws skyrocket.
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This couldn't be further from the truth. He provides stats that show a middle of the pack offense and puts too much of the blame on Tannehill despite obvious evidence to the contrary all under the guise of "counteracting bias".

BTW, you should read his posts more carefully. According to him the OL is no worse than average.
 
If Wilson was the Miami QB, I don't think he would have been as successful as RT to date, at least assuming Sherman did not completely change the offense.

However, I think RT would excel in the Seattle offense- RT is a good runner, has very good mobility in play action, and throws well on the run. You put RT behind the Seahawks line, with their stable of backs, and he would damage most defenses severely.

RT has been amazingly durable given horrible protection. And the reason those "pressure" stats a few pages back don't hold water: RT has been forced to completely alter his original style and make ultra-quick reads and releases- precisely because he knows he wont have the time. What he is doing as a 2nd yr QB is nothing short of amazing. The Dolphins will stay the course with RT and they'll be very glad they did. I still think he has the chance to be the cream of the crop of the 2012 draft.
 
shouright said:
Well hell, why do that when you can form an opinion beforehand and superimpose it onto the post, regardless of what the post says? ;)
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I agree with the notion we need to throw less and run more too. I don't know if you do this intentionally but every time you make that argument, you make sure to include your opinion that Tannehill isn't very good. Furthermore, the stats you use to make your point is y/pa which I agree is a very useful stat that correlates to wins. BUT this is a TEAM stat and while the QB is a big part of that, it also includes 5 guys(or more) blocking, 4 guys(more or less) running routes and catching(or dropping) passes, 1 guy deciding to pass(or run) the ball then deciding at which depth(long Medium,short) and from what formation.... As you can see, there's a CRAPLOAD of variables that make up that stat and making ONE guy responsible for it, in this case a 2nd QB will irritate some people...
 
NBP81 said:
I agree with the notion we need to throw less and run more too. I don't know if you do this intentionally but every time you make that argument, you make sure to include your opinion that Tannehill isn't very good. Furthermore, the stats you use to make your point is y/pa which I agree is a very useful stat that correlates to wins. BUT this is a TEAM stat and while the QB is a big part of that, it also includes 5 guys(or more) blocking, 4 guys(more or less) running routes and catching(or dropping) passes, 1 guy deciding to pass(or run) the ball then deciding at which depth(long Medium,short) and from what formation.... As you can see, there's a CRAPLOAD of variables that make up that stat and making ONE guy responsible for it, in this case a 2nd QB will irritate some people...
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Are you aware that the correlation between the Dolphins' QB variables and the percentage of its offensive plays that are runs, week-to-week, is meaningless?

In other words, there has been no relationship this season between Ryan Tannehill's performance and the team's balance between the run and the pass, game to game.

So while I agree with you that the team needs to run more, I'm not under the illusion that Ryan Tannehill would be performing any better on the basis of it.
 
shouright said:
Are you aware that the correlation between the Dolphins' QB variables and the percentage of its offensive plays that are runs, week-to-week, is meaningless?

In other words, there has been no relationship this season between Ryan Tannehill's performance and the team's balance between the run and the pass, game to game.

So while I agree with you that the team needs to run more, I'm not under the illusion that Ryan Tannehill would be performing any better on the basis of it.
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Im not saying that, Im saying that you constantly bring up Tannehill not being very good to justify the need for the Fins to run more often, which correlate to winning. And you use y/pa which is a team stat (that also correlates to winning) to bring down ONE player(Tannehill) while totally disregarding every other variables that makeup that stat.
 
NBP81 said:
Im not saying that, Im saying that you constantly bring up Tannehill not being very good to justify the need for the Fins to run more often, which correlate to winning.
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I've said that the correlation between rushing attempts and winning should be ignored only when an offense has a QB who can carry it himself, which Tannehill currently is not.

And you use y/pa which is a team stat (that also correlates to winning) to bring down ONE player(Tannehill) while totally disregarding every other variables that makeup that stat.
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YPA is correlated with the consensus perceptions of QB quality, good and bad, which gives it validity as a measure of individual QB performance, and I've done plenty of analyses on the relationships between Tannehill's stats and the other team variables with which they could be related. I don't blame you, however, for not knowing my history of posting as well as I do. :)
 
No we didn't draft the right QB but who was to know. Wilson has shocked everyone, including the Seattle brass who didn't expect this. They had signed a free agent that offseason to start and drafted Wilson as more of a project. Everyone recall that FA the Seahawks signed? Yup.

Wilson plays fast and athletically and his decision making has been off the charts. Tanny is mechanical and slower to read and react. Wilson seems instinctive while Tanny seems programmed.

No one was to know. Tanny still is a guy I believe in and his ceiling is still undefined. How good he can be is also a product of his coaching and development. Will they let him go play and not merely look like the robotic Henne? Remember, this mechanical look is also a product of being programmed to not make mistakes. Sometimes you gotta just give the player the reigns a bit.
 
shouright said:
I've said that the correlation between rushing attempts and winning should be ignored only when an offense has a QB who can carry it himself, which Tannehill currently is not.

YPA is correlated with the consensus perceptions of QB quality, good and bad, which gives it validity as a measure of individual QB performance, and I've done plenty of analyses on the relationships between Tannehill's stats and the other team variables with which they could be related. I don't blame you, however, for not knowing my history of posting as well as I do. :)
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No matter how you try to spin it, its still a team stat you try to pass off as a measure of individual performance...
 
NBP81 said:
No matter how you try to spin it, its still a team stat you try to pass off as a measure of individual performance...
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So I'm trying to spin it and you're not?

The measure is strongly correlated with the consensus perceptions of individual QB ability, which gives it validity as a measure of individual performance.

On the other hand, what evidence do you have of its validity as a "team" stat?
 
z926538 said:
Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson both have 1.75 NFL seasons under their belts and enough time has passed where we can fairly begin to judge them based on their play in the league. Both were available when the Dolphins drafted Tannehill two seasons ago. What do you think Dolphin's fans? Did Jeff Ireland draft the right quarterback?
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Every NFL GM had either 2 or 3 chances to draft Russell Wilson. He had excelled in college but obviously all believe(d) in the maxim that to play QB in the NFL you have to be over 6', preferably 6'3" or greater. At 5'11", Wilson is the outlier who smashes the theory to pieces. I understand that Wilson actually has extremely large hands. Bigger than Tannehill and RGIII. Full marks to the Seattle GM for giving him the chance.
However, after 17 QBs post Marino, we should be thankful that we too, drafted a very good QB. Time will tell how Ryan stacks up but I see a young QB who continues to make steady improvement. Time spent evaluating if we got the best in the 2011 draft is pretty counter productive. Maybe Seattle got better value, but it's water under the bridge. Be appreciative for what we have.
 
NBP81 said:
No matter how you try to spin it, its still a team stat you try to pass off as a measure of individual performance...
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YPA is a valid measurable for a QB. It can't be the only measurable but is a factor. TD passes stat goes to the QB correct? Didn't the offensive line help in the TD pass?

Hockey has a plus minus stat for players to measure goals scored when players are on the ice. Basketball teams measure points per possession. NFL quarterbacks have many stats that go into their rating. One is YPA and that makes sense from here.

The QB that is efficient will succeed here. The incompletions, throwaways, check downs will all hurt this stat. And much of that is on the QB.
 
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