Team building theory 2021 edition. | Page 8 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Team building theory 2021 edition.

What do you do with #3 if no trade down available?

  • QB

    Votes: 9 6.6%
  • WR

    Votes: 62 45.3%
  • T

    Votes: 66 48.2%

  • Total voters
    137

KentuckyFin

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As much as we would like another QB I think you have to give Tua another year or two. He shines what he could do in college and as a rookie with little training camp and coming off of a major injury. If he can gain back 10-15 lbs and strengthen the hip his arm strength will improve. He is accurate and can throw on the move, and without weapons it is hard to judge him. Look at Josh Allen when he got Diggs to throw to this year.
 

Stoobz

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QB - only if it's Trevor.
OT - only if it's Penei.
WR - take your pick of Chase, Smith or Waddle.
 

Gsmack_42

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Maybe so, but that wouldn't preclude them from troll voting.
There under the bridge waiting to jump out and scare us. Or I think that’s how the story went when I was a kid.
 

The Ghost

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How many teams that selected a WR in the first round last year, made the playoffs this year?

How many first round WRs made the post season this year? I’m counting 4. Mike Evans, Marquise Brown, Corey Davis and Sammy Watkins. I don’t see that crew having much of an impact in the playoffs, like most years.
 

Digital

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Excellent post @NBP81 !

TLDR (Too Long Didn't Read) is a thing for sure, but it is always enjoyable reading quality analysis like yours, so Thanks! Here's my Way Too Long post!

Long story short, we're more than 1 player away, so we should draft for value. I'm a big fan of moving up and down the draft board to get to where your needs match up nicely with value, and Grier has done both successfully as GM. People may not recall that we moved up in round 2 to snag Xavien Howard, stood pat and picked up Laremy Tunsil both because those were points where our needs met the draft value. Similarly, we needed a QB and coveted Joe Burrow, but the spot was not available, so we stood pat and picked up Tua, our second choice. So, I have faith in Grier to move around the board to find where value can be paired with need. As @NBP81 so eloquently noted, this is harder to do now that we've filled some of our needs.

At #3 overall, there really are only two positions that merit that spot--QB and Pass Rusher--and in that order. I simply don't see an elite pass rusher in the mold of Chase Young this year, so that means the market is purely QB at #3. Trevor Lawrence is a lock at #1, but there is no consensus about who is the next best guy, with each player (Zack Wilson and Justin Fields) having their strengths and weaknesses as well as fans and critics. Sewell may be the next position of value with a high enough rating to sneak into the top 3, but I suspect all 3 will be QB's. The Jets look content to build around Sam Darnold and are likely to trade out of the #2 spot and pick up another position (like OL) later in round 1. The potential trade partners who make sense if the Jets want Sewell would be #4 Falcons, #6 Eagles, #7 Lions, #8 Panthers, #9 Broncos ... basically everyone except the #5 Bengals.

It is possible more than one team is willing to offer big value to trade up, such as 1st rounder this year plus a 1st and 2nd this year, or 1st this year and 2nd next year. But, Sewell is unlikely to last past the #5 Bengals, so if Sewell is the guy the Jets want, that only leaves the #4 Falcons as trade partners. My guess is that the Jets will field offers and take the best one, and if they miss out on Sewell they will simply draft another OL, possibly even trading back out of the Top 10 to do it. Essentially, the Jets are in the driver's seat, and our draft strategy for the #3 pick depends on what the Jets do.

We have legitimate needs at almost every position. At OL, we have Austin Jackson at LT, and no solution at RT. Jesse Davis is a solid OL all across the line, but he's getting old. Robert Hunt is big and powerful, but still raw and lacks the pass protection skills we want, so he looks more like the successor to Jesse Davis as a flex OL than the answer at RT or RG, especially with Tua being a left-handed QB. Solomon Kindley looks pretty good, but he already got hurt, and Ereck Flowers is a high-priced FA who underperformed, so we're definitely still in the market for an OG. Ted Karras overperformed his backup pay, but he may be tough to re-sign because of that. Plus, he's neither elite nor all that young, so we're probably looking to draft an OC unless someone (Deiter?) improves enough to claim the spot. Karras' calls along the OL was a big part of its success, so he'll likely be re-signed if possible. So that's really 2 to 3 OL (1 OT and 1interior C/G) we could take if value was available.

RB is a position of lesser value in today's NFL, but if the right guy were available, we might find value in it. In Round 1 only Travis Etienne looks like a late 1st value pick, but in the 2nd guys like Najee Harris might be of value. After that, probably 3rd or lower for the RB position, IMHO.

Defensively, we another pass rusher to complement Emmanuel Ogbah, so Shaq Lawson is very replaceable. Van Ginkel has shown promise, but if we can find another guy to fill the Van Noy role I suspect we'll pull the trigger. I really like Charles Snowden of Virginia. At UVa he showed he was a dominant pass rusher, long, lean, leverage, fast, relentless, smart, team player. But, he was hurt for almost the entire year, so he might slip as far down as the 3rd or 4th round, where he will be an absolute steal. He's smart, versatile, and a physical specimen--perfect for Coach Flo's defense. Great attitude and locker room guy as well. I'll be ecstatic if we add Charles Snowden. A higher round guy who I really like is Zaven Collins, whose coverage LB skills are as good as his name! Regardless, our LB corps is not complete yet, so we'll be adding a LB somewhere.

In the secondary we definitely need at least 1 more safety. I believe we'll keep our veterans and build on who we have. But, Igbinoghene was the lowest rated CB in the NFL by PFF, and regardless of whether you agree with their rankings or not, it is fair to say he struggled. I'm sure he'll be better next year, but he's a CB, so even best case scenario, we'll likely want to add competition because neither Igbinoghene nor Needham were good enough in 2020. With Rowe and McCain, we have to older safeties that have issues. Rowe can look very good ... and other times look flat out bad. McCain is a leader of the DB's and has the versatility to play all the positions ... but he's not young any more and his salary isn't cheap. I expect us to draft 1 safety in round 2 or 3 and groom him along with Brandon Jones to take over at the safety positions over the next year or two.

Along the DL, I doubt we use a high pick on anyone. Wilkins is exactly what we want. Raekwon Davis has potential. Everyone else is a role player, but this isn't a great DL class. What we need is a pass rusher who can play DE and OLB effectively in our multiple-front scheme. We'd like to get another Emmanuel Ogbah, Kyle Van Noy, or Christian Wilkins ... but this draft has either unproductive guys with athletic skills (e.g. Kwity Paye) or productive guys without elite tools (too numerous to list). So, I don't see us drafting DL until late and only then for a role player guy. We may look at the FA market if we think we can find another Ogbah type.

At the end of the day, this draft is deep at WR, so we can spend #3 on the best of the bunch--Ja'Marr Chase--or hope that one of the other good ones falls (e.g. Jalen Waddle makes it to #18, or take a chance on Justyn Ross later). There's lots of OL that right now look to be mixed in all of the top 3 rounds who could upgrade our OL, so if the final board stacks that way, we should always have an OL option wherever we pick. In the later rounds, there's plenty of OL picks worthy of those spots, because a lot of this year's OL class are guys who will go later in the draft.

At the end of the day, we need to decide whether we want to build around Tua (add WR + OL), upgrade from Tua (draft a QB), or improve the roster with BPA (move up and down the board to catch the falling stars like the Baltimore Ravens typically do). I'm confident that Grier & Co. know what they want to do already and Coach Flo is on-board with whatever that decision may be. And, I doubt that Grier tips his hand before the draft. That makes me happy.
 

j-off-her-doll

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Great stuff as usual!

I think I've seen Slimm and CK mention it, but the consensus Top WR and OT (Chase and Sewell) didn't play football in 2020, so that will have to be factored in to the risk/reward. If either disappoints at the Combine, they should sink like stones. If Sewell doesn't test like an elite athlete at his position, he should not be a consideration at 3. Some will challenge this, because they don't know what they're talking about, but any basic effort research into the subject will make the point clear.

Aside from all that, I don't think it's particularly close. Both Fields and Wilson are more physically talented than Tua, and they both do some things better. You draft either and let them sit and learn in 2021 (like Miami should have done with Tua), and you let them really compete for the starting job in 2022. If Tua is playing like a Top 10 QB in 2021, you can trade Fields/Wilson before the 2022 Draft and collect a boatload of picks. If Tua is playing good/not great, you see if Fields/Wilson can be great. If Tua plays mediocre or worse, you have a talented QB ready to upgrade the most important position in team sports. People use value in the abstract, but it has real consequences.

The people who want Sewell say that they can get a WR who isn't significantly worse than Smith/Chase at 18; the people who want Smith/Chase say that they can get an OT who isn't significantly worse than Sewell at 18. They're both right! No one - in their right mind - is saying you can get a QB prospect comparable to Fields/Wilson at 18. Miami is in the extremely privileged position to take another swing at the golden goose - all while having the resources to build a loaded team around its QB. The rich get richer because they can leverage their assets. Miami is in position to do just that.
 
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Russ57

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Yes, excellent post NBP81.

Once upon a time the Dolphins traded picks 12 and 42 to move up to 3. I think what we get for the third pick hinges on what the Jets do and how badly the Bengals want Sewell. If I were the Jets I would take a QB. I can't see them taking Sewell but I could certainly see them trading down. Darnold has one more year on his contract, with an option on the 5th. Figure they take Fields at 2 and we can assume Lawrence goes at 1.

Bengals, historically, don't trade. Would they value Sewell so much higher than Slater to break that trend? I'm doubting it. I'm thinking they stay at 5 and take the best OT on the board.

So how do other teams value Wilson, Lance, and Jones (Trask perhaps)? Which ones need a QB? Falcons, Lions, Cowboys, 49ers, Bears, and Saints are all in the possible category to me. Broncos, Patriots, Washington, and Colts are in the should category to me.

Some of those teams would take a big cap hit if they were to move on from their current QB. That might take them out of consideration.

Hate to say it but Patriots are someone I'd listen to. I'm not fearing Wilson or Lance that much. I'd rather get their 1st and 2nd this year and their 1st next year than see them stand pat and get Lance/Jones/Trask. Honestly we could end up with even more if Bill is desperate to win and sees now just how vital a good QB is.
 

NBP81

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Great stuff as usual!

I think I've seen Slimm and CK mention it, but the consensus Top WR and OT (Chase and Sewell) didn't play football in 2020, so that will have to be factored in to the risk/reward. If either disappoints at the Combine, they should sink like stones. If Sewell doesn't test like an elite athlete at his position, he should not be a consideration at 3. Some will challenge this, because they don't know what they're talking about, but any basic effort research into the subject will make the point clear.

Aside from all that, I don't think it's particularly close. Both Fields and Wilson are more physically talented than Tua, and they both do some things better. You draft either and let them sit and learn in 2021 (like Miami should have done with Tua), and you let them really compete for the starting job in 2022. If Tua is playing like a Top 10 QB in 2021, you can trade Fields/Wilson before the 2022 Draft and collect a boatload of picks. If Tua is playing good/not great, you see if Fields/Wilson can be great. If Tua plays mediocre or worse, you have a talented QB ready to upgrade the most important position in team sports. People use value in the abstract, but it has real consequences.

The people who want Sewell say that they can get a WR who isn't significantly worse than Smith/Chase at 18; the people who want Smith/Chase say that they can get an OT who isn't significantly worse than Sewell at 18. They're both right! No one - in their right mind - is saying you can get a QB prospect comparable to Fields/Wilson at 18. Miami is in the extremely privileged position to take another swing at the golden goose - all while having the resources to build a loaded team around its QB. The rich get richer because they can leverage their assets. Miami is in position to do just that.
I find myself changing my mind alot lately on this subject... But I have trouble setting my mind on QB. Like I stated earlier, I think the value of QB is significantly reduced here because of the fact the Fins QB is only one year into his rookie deal. Yes the drafted QB retains implied value but Im really not sure you're getting back what you paid for in a trade.

Yes you split the risk, but you're paying a huge bounty doing so, we're talking top5 pick in back to back years. You reduce risk, but dont increase upside and dont extend the QB on a rookie deal window all that much. I'd be alot more likely on board with this is if they were 2 years removed from Tua's deal expiring.

Where Im really torn is Smith vs Sewell.. The more read knowledgeable people talk about Smith, the more it pains me to pass him up for Sewell. How large is the value gap there is very subjective given the Fins OL is almost exclusively filled with rookie contracts and how depleted they are at offensive skill positions. When I read conversations between you, CK and Slimm, it sure does sound like there's a huge gab between Smith/Chase and what they could get at #18.
 

The Ghost

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I'd go Sewell. We can add a quality WR in free agency and still draft another WR at #18.

Ya, and if the Giants pass on a WR at 11 someone will be available at 14 (MInn) for us to trade up to, in front of the Pats at 15.

The Giants are sandwiched around teams that don’t need a WR.

If we can get Sewell at 4, whatever assets acquired could be put towards moving up. I’m not usually a fan of moving up but if you can lock down Sewell and a stellar WR prospect Tua can start to realize his potential and thrive.
 

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Warning: This is another one of my TLDR; post.

About this time last year I made a post about positional value in the draft. Things were pretty straightfoward as it pertained to the Fins; they basically needed everything so it was easy to draft for positional value, which they did with their 1st 2 picks. At the top of the draft, value wise, QB >>> LT >> WR, and what do you know, Fins drafted a QB followed by a LT.

Things are going to be murkier this season as they find themselves at the top again with both of the top value positions filled to an extent. The way the NFL is setup makes it very hard for teams to commit to a pure value strategy when it comes to the draft. The free agency being before the draft sets teams up to build a good part of their team through FA, and leave them trying to fill remaining holes through the uncertainty of the draft.

This is mostly to make sure vets are getting taken care of first... This only makes sense so dont expect it to change, but its not ideal for teams trying to build their teams the right way. In other words, NFL GMs would be much more likely to draft exclusively for value if they knew FAs was right around the corner to fill in the gaps.

All that being said, the Fins clear objective this off-season should be to go from bum to one on offense, as they did on D this season. Offense success mainly runs through the QB position, the WRs and the OL, followed by TEs and RBs. I will focus on the #3 pick in this post as its the most interesting one for many reasons, one of which is the Fins can actually pick anyone they want with that pick minest 2 players.

QB

There's no doubt if the Fins find themselves in position to draft a QB in the top 5, this would be the pure value option to make. And its not even close. But when it comes to the overall strategy of building a top 5 offense, it gets complicated.

If the Fins want to optimize the QB position, they need to upgrade the receiving options. To be realistic, they could very well need 2 top notch WRs and a decent slot. The draft isnt the only place to get those players, but the #3 pick gives you a 100% shot at one top notch option and could very well give you 2 of them if you split the value in a trade down.

There's also the fact that the pure value of picking the QB here doesnt translate to simply adding the value of Tua + the value of the drafted QB as only one of them gets to see the majority of the snaps on offense(hopefully). While you do split the risk, you dont necessarily increase upside. Simply put, the loser of the starting job only retains implied value, meaning there's no on fied value of increasing offensive production.

There's no FA move to be made on any QB except for backup(which is beyond the scope of this post) so Im not going to go there.

Tackle

The 2nd option is to bypass QB and draft the Tackle. The difference here is even if the Fins already have a tackle on team, adding the value of Jackson on top of the value of Sewell applies. Both can start on the offensive line and contribute to offensive success. Whether its the optimal way to go to go from bum to one on offense warrants a dicussion. The obvious yay here is that there's no value mistake being made, the obvious nay is that this might not be the optimal route to take in your strategy of building a top offense.

There's no FA move to be made here except for backups, not going there.

WR

This is the most interesting one of the bunch IMO, there are alot of ways to go about it and alot of them are very close calls. These kind of decisions(close value calls) always warrant the most discussion because very often, there's no completely wrong anwser and you get get 50% of people on one side, 50% on the other, going back and forth on it, no one is absolutely right and no one absolutely wrong.

The most straight foward way to go here would be to pick your prefered WR at #3, boom 1/3rd of your problem solved, off to #18. Problem here is you're making a value mistake. In a prefect world, you pick the WR between 7-10, or when the QBs and Tackles are gone. A trade down here would be ideal, to a spot where the WR is your absolute value move. You dont control the trade offers you get, but needless to say you listen.

Best case scenarion is you trade down, get an extra 2nd and pick your player. So the net mistake of picking the WR at #3 is a 2nd round pick(Or whatever you think would be the fair value of trading down)

Or you could try and fill the position in FA. The problem with FA is the higher the value of the position, the bigger the % of your cap is attributed to an overpayment. For example, over paying for a good RB in FA might me a 2-3M/per affair, when overpaying for a WR in FA could be as much as a 6-8M overpayment. These things add up quick, its basically why you want to draft high value positions, instead of overpaying, you're underpaying.

One thing the Fins need to figure out is: Is picking a WR #3, should that be our only option, a bigger loss of value than overpaying for one in FA? Another way to put this, Does it make sense to overpay for a WR in FA so we can avoid making a mistake picking one a #3 if overpaying for one is the bigger mistake? And the problem here is that this decision needs to be made before free agency, before they know what the offers will look like. Its a though spot to be in.

This can be avoided over time by drafting for positional value on a consistent basis... After a while, you're always stocked with young talent at high value positions which makes FA moves easy, you fill in the gaps with the added value from the draft. But every time you start drafting for need, you sacrifice value. Its always a balancing act between what do we want to look like this season and how do we want to run things on a consistant basis. The more you deviate, the more your results vary, and there's no telling if they'll vary towards good or bad.

So what do you do with #3?

I like the idea of trading down makes the most sense to me. At that point you might want to access the QB vs Tackle vs wide receiver based on who is available at that point.

Keep in mind that if there is a cap reduction, there is more likely to be vets available that will improve some of our "soft" spots.
 

j-off-her-doll

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I find myself changing my mind alot lately on this subject... But I have trouble setting my mind on QB. Like I stated earlier, I think the value of QB is significantly reduced here because of the fact the Fins QB is only one year into his rookie deal. Yes the drafted QB retains implied value but Im really not sure you're getting back what you paid for in a trade.

Yes you split the risk, but you're paying a huge bounty doing so, we're talking top5 pick in back to back years. You reduce risk, but dont increase upside and dont extend the QB on a rookie deal window all that much. I'd be alot more likely on board with this is if they were 2 years removed from Tua's deal expiring.

Where Im really torn is Smith vs Sewell.. The more read knowledgeable people talk about Smith, the more it pains me to pass him up for Sewell. How large is the value gap there is very subjective given the Fins OL is almost exclusively filled with rookie contracts and how depleted they are at offensive skill positions. When I read conversations between you, CK and Slimm, it sure does sound like there's a huge gab between Smith/Chase and what they could get at #18.

Are you really paying a huge bounty, though? And, what's too much to invest in the most important position?

If Tua plays like a Top 10 QB in 2021, and Miami wants to flip Fields/Wilson for picks before the 2022 Draft, do you think their value will be less than it would be in a trade down in 2021? In an absolute sense, you obviously have 1 less year on a rookie deal, but I doubt it affects their trade stock much - especially because Fields/Wilson will have had a year of development under the same staff that helped Tua develop into a Top 10 QB.

If Tua doesn’t look like a Top 10 QB in 2021, wouldn't you like to have another blue-chip option ready to compete in 2022? Would there be anything you'd rather have (for Miami lol) in that moment?

I have Waddle in the same tier as those two, but, yeah, there's a gap between the top guys and the next group. It's a sacrifice, but it's a lesser sacrifice imo.
 

TraderJoe

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Sewell we can get 2 WRs or TE /Wr with 18 and 36

btw our line play is still godawful and we need competition before just handing out jobs on the line

peope say Sewell is a LT??

Tua generally runs left not a bad problem to have sealing off the RE
Interesting point about Tua rolling left.
 
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