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Texans trading for Tunsil and Stills (Merged X3)

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Cornell_Law said:
EXTREMELY reductionist logic that shows zero understanding of Pareto optimization. Whether Rosen is the franchise or not (currently unknown), the optimization principal would allow strategic actors to make an optimal decision (in this case huge compensation for a decent WR and a pretty good LT), still with the Pareto parameters of it possibly detracting from a previous choice or belief (in this case whether Rosen is the goods or not). In fact, strategic actors in business, wartime environs, and even courtrooms often can make decisions or choices where they believe garners more potential advantage even to the detriment of other highly valued decision calculus. While no one on this board is skilled enough to evaluate a QB at the NFL level or they would not be a message board pirate, we can apply Pareto logic and should all be intelligent enough to understand the basics of applying Pareto distributions and decision in one area can be weighed as is vice in strategic connection with outcomes we do not have data for.

I am shocked tha the simple idea of trading a good LT somehow cannot be seen through an optimization prism that may not be highly correlated to the decision prism at the Qb position. This is really basic stuff from a betting, econometric analysis, and even algorithmic roster building (aka what commoners call money ball). Lets try to do better and apply more nuanced rigor then falling into the simpleton trap of "oh they trade LT must not like QB."
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It's great that you understand the principle of pareto-optimization, as an understanding of basic economics is useful and applicable in most situations. For example, the NFL is not about collecting the most talent, if so the Patriots might have only won one or two championships. The NFL is about building a comparatively better team than all meaningful competitors. By "meaningful" I mean teams that stand in your way and prevent you from reaching the playoffs, and those you will face in the playoffs. Perfection is not required nor likely, but comparative superiority is.

To win in today's NFL there are multiple models for success, but when you are evaluating how to build one of these models, you need to properly valuate the building blocks for each. For example, building a great defense is one way, but it typically requires multiple great pass rushers, solid to great CB's and at least 1 solid to great S. It also requires some combo of DT/LB to stop the run, and coverage LB's. That model is not super-successful, but on occasion it does succeed. The problem is that it requires too many top players (and coaches) to make much sense for most teams.

Most of the other models involve some combo of a strong passing game and a good (although not necessarily great) QB. The QB is the most prized asset and the most difficult to obtain … but these models only require 1 QB, and he does not need to be an HoF'er. It is more attainable than building on defense, because you only have to "hit" on one good player, the QB, and that often requires expending a lot of your resources to obtain, but once you have him, you're set with that aspect for a decade or more. The best thing you can do to build a passing offense is build around that QB, which means having a solid blindside protector. With defenses bringing exotic pressure from everywhere these days and DT's evolving from run plugging immovable objects to gap penetrating pass rushers, this protection is increasingly coming up the A gap, which means having interior OL who can handle games (stunts/twists) from speedy LB's and physical DL's. The game is definitely transitioning.

But still, the most effective way for a defense to derail a passing offense is via blindside pass rush. One good hit can be devastating to the QB's confidence/fear and have him hearing footsteps the rest of the game. It causes rushed throws and QB fumbles. Takeaways are THE number 1 stat in football, and these blindside pass rushers generate takeaways, which is the biggest variable in the turnover differential equation. So, having a blindside protector is extremely helpful in building that passing offense model. Without one, it often does not matter how good the rest of your players are, because the passing offense ceases to excel.

As one might imagine, those 300+ pound 6'6 dancing bear monsters with great technique, tremendous power, long arms, and extremely athletic feet are … very rare. Obtaining one is hard and they go high in the draft. We can find QB's outside of the 1st round, but not a lot of LT's are found outside of the 1st round. As a rare resource, these are among the very rarest. The hit/miss statistics aren't all that encouraging either, because there are a lot of misses when drafting LT's, and there's not much market for them in free agency because the good and healthy ones simply aren't ever available. Sure, we added Brendan Albert, and he was good, but at that age, they usually break down physically, and he did, not even finishing out his contract.

If your goal is to increase the talent level, your pareto-optimization argument is a strong one. But, if your goal is to build a comparatively superior NFL team that is capable of challenging for a championship … you're going to need specific pieces, which means spending resources until you find those pieces. Trading away Tunsil--one of those pieces--is a gamble, and assuming at least a modicum of risk-aversion, we risk jeopardizing the rest of this team-building exercise by betting against recent history that we can replace our LT.

Our history drafted Jake Long … great player who by his 2nd year was already breaking down physically and was a poor player before the end of his rookie contract. Our FA history has spent money on good players like Branden Albert, Sitton, etc., and they couldn't stay healthy. We drafted high picks like Mike Pouncey and Ju'Wuan James … and they didn't work out. Our track record suggests it will take more than the draft pick haul we received to replace Tunsil … if we're even able to replace him. Given that we're still lacking other rare elements like a QB, multiple pass rushers, and at least 1 more CB, there is a lot of very valid rationale as to why people would be uncomfortable and even upset at this trade.

When utilizing pareto-optimization, it is crucial to define what it is you wish to optimize. Talent level is nice, and we agree that it needs to be increased. But ultimately, we're building a team along a model for the purpose of obtaining a comparatively superior team to all meaningful competitors, and that's a slightly different goal. At least, that's my $0.02.
 
J. David Wannyheimer said:
What's wrong with the post you quoted? He's absolutely right. We got a haul for Tunsil. It was a good trade.

He is entirely justified in his skepticism of what Chris Clownshoes is going to do with the picks. Unless you think the team has done a great job with draft and trade capital since Grier took over as GM a few years ago?
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IDK - I think we’ve been drafting better. Let’s see what happens there - it should be easier to draft when you have an identity, system etc and know what you are trying to do I would think.
 
SkapePhin said:
Lol. Grier has been a major part of some of the worst drafts in dolphins history and you are putting your faith in him using all these picks to turn the Dolphins into a juggernaut?
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No but we have been drafting a bit better. I have faith we will have a system / know what we want to do thereby making it easier to draft.
 
Picks and money part deux. Except I don’t think we’ll be building off a 7-9 year like in 2012 lol
 
Cornell_Law said:
EXTREMELY reductionist logic that shows zero understanding of Pareto optimization. Whether Rosen is the franchise or not (currently unknown), the optimization principal would allow strategic actors to make an optimal decision (in this case huge compensation for a decent WR and a pretty good LT), still with the Pareto parameters of it possibly detracting from a previous choice or belief (in this case whether Rosen is the goods or not). In fact, strategic actors in business, wartime environs, and even courtrooms often can make decisions or choices where they believe garners more potential advantage even to the detriment of other highly valued decision calculus. While no one on this board is skilled enough to evaluate a QB at the NFL level or they would not be a message board pirate, we can apply Pareto logic and should all be intelligent enough to understand the basics of applying Pareto distributions and decision in one area can be weighed as is vice in strategic connection with outcomes we do not have data for.

I am shocked tha the simple idea of trading a good LT somehow cannot be seen through an optimization prism that may not be highly correlated to the decision prism at the Qb position. This is really basic stuff from a betting, econometric analysis, and even algorithmic roster building (aka what commoners call money ball). Lets try to do better and apply more nuanced rigor then falling into the simpleton trap of "oh they trade LT must not like QB."
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Well what did you expect my names not “Cornell law.”

Between do me a favor and get back to me next April when they sprint that qb card up to the podium. Lol
 
Miamifinz said:
Picks and money part deux. Except I don’t think we’ll be building off a 7-9 year like in 2012 lol
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I mean, in that year we only had one first round pick, and 2 second round picks. It was a historically bad draft for talent as well and a desperate Ireland, trying to save his job moved up in a draft that saw two guards go top 10 and 6 lineman, none of which were truly outstanding got top 11. We also traded up for a player that had a unique skill set, but never really produced in college and had no real plan for.

From a personnel standpoint, 2013's draft and off-season was a disaster that set the team back several years and still hasn't recovered from.
 
To think it will be a repeat of 2013 is fair. The thing to remember though is Philbin and his staff was notorious for not being involved in the draft process. Plus I think adding Allen and McKenzie makes a huge deal.

That being said the key is to not panic. Ireland was banking in drafting Terron Armstead and when the Saints drafted him he panicked and went with someone of a similar build and athletic profile in Dallas Thomas.... which obviously didn't work out. The good organizations know what their system is and go for players that meet that system on the field. If you look at some of the consistently good teams over the years they tend to have guys that are considered reaches by draftniks but they end up looking great.
 
2020, if correct

2020 1st-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 1st-round pick (HOU)
– 2020 2nd-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 2nd-round pick (NO)
– 2020 3rd-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 3rd-round pick (Comp – Ja’Wuan James)
– 2020 4th-round pick (MIA or TEN)
– 2020 5th-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 5th-round pick (Comp – Cam Wake)
– 2020 6th-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 6th-round pick (DAL)
– 2020 7th-round pick (MIA)
– 2020 7th-round pick (KC)

www.google.com

An updated look at the Miami Dolphins 2020 NFL Draft picks

Yesterday was a tough day for Miami Dolphins fans everywhere. The fanbase endured the emotional roller coaster ride of the team’s pursuit of DE Jadeveon Clowney flaming out — only to ha…
www.google.com www.google.com
 
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Texans "flatter" management structure falls flat on its face - ProFootballTalk

Saturday’s whirlwind of transactions provided the first real test for Houston’s new-look, no-G.M. front office. The grade for the “flatter” management structure: A big, fat F.Through not just one but two disastrous trades, the Texans not only botched their divorce from Jadeveon Clowney but also...
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Seems to say alot about the tunsil trade.
 
People think chess grandmasters can see thirty moves ahead and they never make a move until they know exactly how the whole game's going to end. That's just not the way it is. They are simply good at evaluating positions. If the position is good, they don't need to know exactly how to finish it. They know they'll figure it out when the time comes.

It's the same here. Flexibility is a huge asset and some folks just don't get it. With our present position we can move up for a QB next year, move up for a QB in two years, or rally behind Rosen and build him a heck of a team. This idea that they already know exactly what they're going to do is ridiculous. There are so many factors they can't control it would be a waste of time and energy to do so. They simply know they have a great position and they'll have many ways of bringing it home.
 
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