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The 2007 Mets Thread

chan ho, a pretty good 4-5 guy in the rotation... sometimes has control problems, and sometimes gives up the long ball... not a good combination, but he also has flashes of 6 solid innings. i think i dont mind him so much for a 4-5 starter.
 
AirMarino83 said:
chan ho, a pretty good 4-5 guy in the rotation... sometimes has control problems, and sometimes gives up the long ball... not a good combination, but he also has flashes of 6 solid innings. i think i dont mind him so much for a 4-5 starter.
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I would rather throw Humber or Pelfrey then Park.
 
phunwin said:
I suspect the Twins would demand both Milledge (or even Fernando Martinez, whose star appears to have eclipsed Milledge's) and Pelfrey as part of any deal. I mean, they'd only be giving up the best pitcher in baseball in the prime of his career. Even with a limited market of teams that could realistically trade for him and then sign him after, plenty of contenders would happily surrender top prospects to rent him for half a season (or whatever) and let the chips fall where they may. Remember, getting a pair of #1 picks for losing a guy isn't bad compensation.
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I absolutely would not do it. pelfrey alone has the ability to turn into a high ceiling pitcher. There's no way I could legitimize giving up two high tier prospects and handicapping my ability to manuver for any player. The goal of a GM isnt so shortsighted as to only see the current year.

This is exactly how the SF Giants got taken by Minny on the Nathan-Pierzynski deal. The Giants gave Liriano with Nathan and one other pkayer, forget who, that turned in to a decent player for minny.
 
phunwin said:
I suspect the Twins would demand both Milledge (or even Fernando Martinez, whose star appears to have eclipsed Milledge's) and Pelfrey as part of any deal. I mean, they'd only be giving up the best pitcher in baseball in the prime of his career. Even with a limited market of teams that could realistically trade for him and then sign him after, plenty of contenders would happily surrender top prospects to rent him for half a season (or whatever) and let the chips fall where they may. Remember, getting a pair of #1 picks for losing a guy isn't bad compensation.
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What the Twins want will determine on when they move him. If they are out of the race this July, then they could trade him then and get the mother-load in return.

If they wait till the offseason then their asking price drops a little.

If they wait till next July, then their asking price is almost nothing as they lose all leverage!!!
 
MikeO said:
What the Twins want will determine on when they move him. If they are out of the race this July, then they could trade him then and get the mother-load in return.

If they wait till the offseason then their asking price drops a little.

If they wait till next July, then their asking price is almost nothing as they lose all leverage!!!
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The Twins won't lose leverage if they wait until July 2008 to trade him. A team that needs a star pitcher or an impact player to get into the playoffs would still trade for him with hopes to try and sign him in the offseason. The Astros traded Freddy Garcia, John Halama and Carlos Guillen for Randy Johnson for 3 months, two of those guys turned into pretty good MLB players. It's happened before, sure maybe the asking price would have been higher if they traded him in January but still the Twins have leverage because there will be playoff teams fighting to land him and the Twins will play those teams off of each other to land a nice batch of players.
 
Ray Finkle said:
The Twins won't lose leverage if they wait until July 2008 to trade him. A team that needs a star pitcher or an impact player to get into the playoffs would still trade for him with hopes to try and sign him in the offseason. The Astros traded Freddy Garcia, John Halama and Carlos Guillen for Randy Johnson for 3 months, two of those guys turned into pretty good MLB players. It's happened before, sure maybe the asking price would have been higher if they traded him in January but still the Twins have leverage because there will be playoff teams fighting to land him and the Twins will play those teams off of each other to land a nice batch of players.
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1) No team will trade for him unless they can sign and keep him. That brings the number of teams who can trade to him down to about 5 or 6!! So that weakens the Twins leverage right there!! HE will get $20+ mill a year. That isn't up for debate. Not many teams can pay that. And not all of the ones that can will want too!!!

2) YES, the Twins will lose leverage. That doesn't mean they hand him away for nothing. But they also can't hold onto him and let him walk and get nothing. (only the Nationals with Alphonso Soriano do stupid things like that). The thing you and everyone needs to realize is the Minnesota front office has already decided that they won't keep him. He's gone. It's a matter of WHEN not if at this point. The fact this has already leaked a year or so ahead of time already costs them leverage. Every major deadline that goes bye costs them more leverage. Like I said, doesn't mean they trade him Bobby Abreu style, but at some point its he's gotta go and we gotta take the best offer now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Whether the offer is "fair" or not!!
 
MikeO said:
1) No team will trade for him unless they can sign and keep him. That brings the number of teams who can trade to him down to about 5 or 6!! So that weakens the Twins leverage right there!! HE will get $20+ mill a year. That isn't up for debate. Not many teams can pay that. And not all of the ones that can will want too!!!

2) YES, the Twins will lose leverage. That doesn't mean they hand him away for nothing. But they also can't hold onto him and let him walk and get nothing. (only the Nationals with Alphonso Soriano do stupid things like that). The thing you and everyone needs to realize is the Minnesota front office has already decided that they won't keep him. He's gone. It's a matter of WHEN not if at this point. The fact this has already leaked a year or so ahead of time already costs them leverage. Every major deadline that goes bye costs them more leverage. Like I said, doesn't mean they trade him Bobby Abreu style, but at some point its he's gotta go and we gotta take the best offer now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Whether the offer is "fair" or not!!
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A mid-market team, in the thick of a pennant race, trades for Santana, secure in the knowledge that their chances of resigning him are slim. They move a couple A-list prospects in trade, Santana pitches for them for 3 months, and then leaves as a free agent. Have they let him walk "for nothing"?

NO!

They've received the benefits of having Johan Santana for 3 months, which could easily mean 5 or 6 wins over the starter he replaced in that time. That, in turn, could easily mean the difference between a pennant and flying to South Carolina to golf in October. If Santana pitches that team to the World Series, they've received a tremendous benefit.

And when he walks, they get two first round draft picks. If used wisely, they can replace the two A-list prospects they just traded to get Santana.

So, for two blue-chip prospects (and maybe a third B-list prospect), they've received 3 months of Johan Santana, and two more blue-chip prospects. There are worse outcomes to a trade.

The Houston Astros have used this strategy twice now: first with Johnson, and then with Beltran. I think it's safe to say they didn't particularly regret either deal. Johnson pitched them to the playoffs in 1998, and they would have advanced if not for the brilliance of Kevin Brown. In 2004, Beltran put the Astros on his shoulders and had them oh-so-close to their first-ever World Series.

Given how well they've drafted over the last several years, the Twins might just hang onto Santana, try to make a run of their own, and then take their 2 prospects in the draft. Billy Beane has shown a complete willingness to do this, and he's only the best GM in baseball.
 
phunwin said:
Billy Beane has shown a complete willingness to do this, and he's only the best GM in baseball.
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I will argue that till the day I die. He isn't by far!!!!

I (and many other more knowledgeable minds than me) have little to no respect for a GM who doesn't feel the need to watch games and feels its ok to take a vacation in the middle of the summer near and around the trading deadline. I'm sorry.
 
also this isn't the NFL or NBA, draft picks while nice aren't a way you try and win. You draft a guy and wait which seems like forever for him to finally make an impact.

I'm not buying that notion as a reason for Minny to wait around an hold onto Santana then let him walk, when they can trade him and get actual major league or AAA players who can step in and help them win now!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
phunwin said:
A mid-market team, in the thick of a pennant race, trades for Santana, secure in the knowledge that their chances of resigning him are slim. They move a couple A-list prospects in trade, Santana pitches for them for 3 months, and then leaves as a free agent. Have they let him walk "for nothing"?

NO!

They've received the benefits of having Johan Santana for 3 months, which could easily mean 5 or 6 wins over the starter he replaced in that time. That, in turn, could easily mean the difference between a pennant and flying to South Carolina to golf in October. If Santana pitches that team to the World Series, they've received a tremendous benefit.

And when he walks, they get two first round draft picks. If used wisely, they can replace the two A-list prospects they just traded to get Santana.

So, for two blue-chip prospects (and maybe a third B-list prospect), they've received 3 months of Johan Santana, and two more blue-chip prospects. There are worse outcomes to a trade.

The Houston Astros have used this strategy twice now: first with Johnson, and then with Beltran. I think it's safe to say they didn't particularly regret either deal. Johnson pitched them to the playoffs in 1998, and they would have advanced if not for the brilliance of Kevin Brown. In 2004, Beltran put the Astros on his shoulders and had them oh-so-close to their first-ever World Series.

Given how well they've drafted over the last several years, the Twins might just hang onto Santana, try to make a run of their own, and then take their 2 prospects in the draft. Billy Beane has shown a complete willingness to do this, and he's only the best GM in baseball.
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Not only everything you stated above but just making the playoffs for a mid-market/level team like for example like for an example Indians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Rockies, etc. could really give that franchise a shot in the arm and get interest back into the team and help out the city. When Seattle got into the playoffs in 1995 and got past the Yankees in the first round there was so much fan support that they got a new ball park built. None of the above mentioned teams need a new ball park but just making the playoffs and going deep could help them big time and might be worth giving up prospects.
 
MikeO said:
I will argue that till the day I die. He isn't by far!!!!

I (and many other more knowledgeable minds than me) have little to no respect for a GM who doesn't feel the need to watch games and feels its ok to take a vacation in the middle of the summer near and around the trading deadline. I'm sorry.
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MikeO said:
also this isn't the NFL or NBA, draft picks while nice aren't a way you try and win. You draft a guy and wait which seems like forever for him to finally make an impact.

I'm not buying that notion as a reason for Minny to wait around an hold onto Santana then let him walk, when they can trade him and get actual major league or AAA players who can step in and help them win now!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Hang on, I'm going to step outside and slam my head against a brick wall a few times....

OK, I feel better.

You can argue all you like that Beane isn't the best GM in baseball, that's fine. It's a debatable point. What's NOT a debatable point is that he's provided a successful blueprint for small to medium sized market teams to compete with large market teams. Why would it shock you that another small market team (Minnesota), led by a general manager who actually has a brain in his head (Terry Ryan), might think, "I like what Beane's done over there. He's hung onto pending free agents, gotten the most out of them, made playoff runs and then taken draft picks and rebuilt successfully. Maybe I should try that."?

Draft picks aren't a way you try to win? Really? Why is it that every team's top 10 prospect list invariably includes a whole bunch of recent first and second round picks?

If you want immediate draft picks who can make an impact in 2 years, rather than 5, it's not hard: pick college players. Plenty of teams have targeted players with significant college experience to ensure that they make an impact sooner than later. The A's, I think, are one of those. What is the difference between picking a guy with 4 years college experience, and having a prospect who's been successful at AA? Not too much.

The value of draft picks is CONSTANTLY underestimated by people who think only about the very short-term outlook. A team like the Twins absolutely has to take the long-term approach. They can't afford to field a $100 million roster every year...or any year, for that matter. If you're thinking long-term, you know that some years, you're not going to have the resources to make a big run, so you maximize it while you can. If the Twins are sitting in first place in the AL Central on July 25, 2008 (6 days before the trade deadline), fighting the Yanks and Red Sox for best record in the AL and a solid 5 games ahead of the White Sox and Indians in the AL Central, I absolutely refuse to believe they're going to say "well, we gotta move Santana. Yes, it means we're going to give up a shot at the World Series, but we've got to get prospects while we can." That's basically what you're postulating.

More likely, they'll say, "hey, let's make a run at the Series, and after the season, we take a couple top-notch college pitchers in the draft and try to make a run in 2011." If they were to trade Santana at the deadline for a couple top AAA or AA prospects, how would their timetable be any different?
 
Ray Finkle said:
Not only everything you stated above but just making the playoffs for a mid-market/level team like for example like for an example Indians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Rockies, etc. could really give that franchise a shot in the arm and get interest back into the team and help out the city. When Seattle got into the playoffs in 1995 and got past the Yankees in the first round there was so much fan support that they got a new ball park built. None of the above mentioned teams need a new ball park but just making the playoffs and going deep could help them big time and might be worth giving up prospects.
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Very true. And the Twins are looking to get a new ballpark built!
 
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