I was surprised at Bills fans, both before the game and especially after the outcome. Not this thread but on other sites.
They seemingly viewed the disparity between the two teams as 14-20 points instead of all the power rating models which had it more like 6-7 points. I've wagered on this stuff long enough to know that those Cream at Crowd games carry considerable gray area, especially when the point spread is in that -5 to -7 range, where this one was. In 1984 my original model had Cream as the play at -7 or less. That was based on backfit research and indeed it held up the first half dozen years or so. But that was largely because the Montana 49ers were such a dominant road team. They'd often sleepwalk through games at Candlestick and then totally trounce very competent Crowd teams on the road. The early '90s Cowboys also shared that tendency.
Once the dust settled through the later '90s and toward recent years, the Cream advantage in that scenario has suffered and is only full boar when the favoritism is -3.5 or less. That guideline has become extremely clear cut. It plays out that way when either the Cream team feels fully threatened by a higher echelon Crowd foe, or the Cream team is coming off of a weak effort or series of comparatively weak efforts. In that case, the power rating drops, the public begins to doubt the Cream team, and the spread is very low, in the Pick-Em to -3.5 range.
At that point the Cream team is supremely energized and determined to reassert its dominance and place in the pecking order. It equates to a full throttle display and comfortable road victory, often in double digits. I'm not a bet against the public guy but that's one situation in which it absolutely holds up more often than not, when Cream is at Crowd. If the public and media consensus is that Cream will win comfortably, it's typically a closer game than expected. If Cream is doubted they will cruise.
Again, that's because it's a bounce league, not a trend league. But the natural tendency is to expect recent indications to repeat.
I have never seen a fanbase whimper so much about the weather. There are serious posts on one Bills forum after another calling for early season games in South Florida to be banned.
Meanwhile this has been a known quantity for 50+ years. I remember John Brodie coiled up on the 49ers bench late in the 1973 opener in the Orange Bowl. That became a famous picture during that time frame, of the old man quarterback with a towel draped over his head while suffering in the Miami heat magnified by that rock hard Poly Turf. The photo is probably still available somewhere. The heat absolutely played a pivotal role in that game, which nobody ever talks about anymore. I'm not sure many fans here realize that the Dolphins very nearly lost the season opener one year after going 17-0. The 49ers came to town motivated and energized. They outhit and outplayed the Dolphins for 3 quarters, leading by a touchdown entering the 4th. I remember the nervous silence throughout the Orange Bowl. Then almost immediately in the final quarter the heat took its toll. The San Francisco players in those dark uniforms were staggering toward the sideline and immediately kneeling down once they reached the sideline. Griese perked up and led the comeback. Miami totally dominated the 4th quarter.
All the talk after that game was in regards to the weather. I mention this because until Sunday if somebody had asked me to name a Dolphins home game in which heat became the primary topic, that 1973 49ers game would have been all alone at the forefront. Now it has company, but for absurd reasons. Those 49ers noted the weather and how much it impacted them. But nobody was acting as if it had been some unforeseen or totally unfair intruding variable with life and death consequences that never should have been allowed.
No, that distinction falls upon the 2022 Buffalo Bills and their fanbase. I got permanently banned from the Bills subreddit today. Message in my email box. And I don't mind at all. My first few posts over there were non-combative and actually encouraging. I emphasized that subjective power rankings were meaningless, that Buffalo was still 6-7 points above Miami in the math-based reputable power ratings.
The threads persisted, and became exponentially more ludicrous. I reminded that a week earlier they were obsessed with injury reports. Nobody said a thing about weather reports. They were debating at what point of the late 3rd or early 4th quarter Josh Allen would be pulled with a 40 point lead. That was an actual substring in one thread. I reminded that on Saturday the Middle Tennessee players were jumping around on the same sideline all game long, en route to 45 points and a lopsided upset win.
I summarized that I couldn't believe what I was reading, that I assumed their fanbase would be calm and mature enough to take one loss in stride. Instead they sounded like wimps.
That sentence probably inspired the ban. Meanwhile I actually softened it. I initially wrote world class wimps. That fit better.