To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

To Win or not to Win and how it might effect QB selection

Kyndig

Kyndig

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To win or not to win, that is the question. My opinion of the team this year and the season has evolved. decades of incompetence and mediocrity from the front office, various coaching staffs failing to develop players, etc. gave me despair to where I felt the best way for us to turn the corner was to tear it all down, and rebuild from the bottom up and ensure that we had a shot at the best or one of the best QB prospects in 2020.

However, good coaching and player development is critical and something that has been missing here for a long time, and this coaching staff is starting to make me a believer based on the results they are having with what they have to work with. I notice discipline, and the team playing as a team as opposed to a collection of individuals, so it got me to thinking, of all the say top 15 QBs in the league today, when were they actually drafted?

1 Lamar Jackson 32nd pick 1st round
2. Patrick Mahomes 10th Pick 1st round
3. Aaron Rodgers 24th Pick 1st round
4. Tom Brady 199th Pick 6th round
5. Drew Brees 32nd pick 2nd round
6. Russell Wilson 75th Pick 3rd Round
7. Deshaun Watson 12th Pick 1st Round
8. Matt Ryan 3rd Pick 1st Round
9. Matt Stafford 1st Pick 1st Round
10. Phillip Rivers 4th Pick 1st Round
11. Dak Prescott 135th Pick 4th Round
12. Ben Rothlisberger 11th Pick 1st round
13. Jared Goff 1st Pick 1st round
14. Kyler Murray 1st pick 1st round
15. Derek Carr 36th pick 2nd round

So, these are the top 15 QBs in the league today, the order isn't important, you could put Mahomes first, or Aaron Rodgers if you like, the point is, where were these guys drafted? So, by my count, 10 of the top 15 QBs were drafted in the first round, 6 of those were drafted in the top 10, 5 of them in the top5, with a further 3 of them drafted 1st overall (not counting Baker Mayfield who I wouldn't rate in the top 15 this year). 4 QBs were drafted in the first round but outside of the top 10. 5 were drafted outside of the first round with Brady drafted in the 6th round being a huge outlier.

My point? History tells me that as much as I really would love us to draft Tua there are good franchise QB's to be had outside of the top 2 or 3, and so I say, let's win away. As long as we get a top 10 pick, we should be in good shape to get a solid Franchise QB prospect, especially in this class. I didn't make a list of all of the busts, or the QBs who are in the bottom half of the league, but we can still put together a contending team with a solid QB with the current draft capital we have in 2020.

There is a solid group of QB's to choose from this year not to mention the 1 or 2 unknowns who jump to the top of the draft board unexpectedly.

By my count, there are least 7 solid QB prospects this year, some better than others, but plenty to take a chance on developing:

2020 QB Prospects

  1. Tua Tagovailoa
  2. Joe Burrow
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Jordan Love
  5. Jake Fromm
  6. Jacob Eason
  7. Jalen Hurts
My point? I don't see us winning out, and I see us drafting in the top 10, and we will be just fine if we do, so go Phins! It's okay to root for this team to win, we will be just fine, let the chips fall where they may.
 
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I would be very happy with any of the top 3 listed. Jalen Hurts seems interesting, why isn't he higher on the list? I don't watch too much college football, but i have watched his highlights.
 
BigOuch said:
I would be very happy with any of the top 3 listed. Jalen Hurts seems interesting, why isn't he higher on the list? I don't watch too much college football, but i have watched his highlights.
Click to expand...
It’s all in the eye of the beholder. If he has a good combine he could shoot higher. He’s looking pretty explosive this year though.
 
The really sad thing about all this is that we really wont have a definitive answer about what we should have done for about a decade.
Consider RG3 and Mayfield... both looked really good for a bit, then tailed off.
You know some posters will positively lose their minds the first time Tua or Burrow look good in Cincy... but until we see their longevity, we really wont know a thing.

Patience is good...but it is in short supply in some folks.
 
Zounds said:
Im ok with taking a later pick with a higher risk if that prospect has a high ceiling. We can try him for a year and then roll the dice again in 2021 for a QB if he doenst work out.
Click to expand...

Psst... Eason.
 
We haven't won our last game.....we still have the Jets, Giants, and Bengals left on the schedule. Think we probably finish around 4-12.

There are a lot of bad teams this year. Probably looking at a pick around 4-5 IMO.
 
As my dream of Tua is currently on life support, I've been more and more interested at trading down and taking someone like Jalen Hurts. The way he's playing and the way Lamar Jackson is playing, I feel like he could be that undervalued guy.
 
Kyndig said:
To win or not to win, that is the question. My opinion of the team this year and the season has evolved. decades of incompetence and mediocrity from the front office, various coaching staffs failing to develop players, etc. gave me despair to where I felt the best way for us to turn the corner was to tear it all down, and rebuild from the bottom up and ensure that we had a shot at the best or one of the best QB prospects in 2020.

However, good coaching and player development is critical and something that has been missing here for a long time, and this coaching staff is starting to make me a believer based on the results they are having with what they have to work with. I notice discipline, and the team playing as a team as opposed to a collection of individuals, so it got me to thinking, of all the say top 15 QBs in the league today, when were they actually drafted?

1 Lamar Jackson 32nd pick 1st round
2. Patrick Mahomes 10th Pick 1st round
3. Aaron Rodgers 24th Pick 1st round
4. Tom Brady 199th Pick 6th round
5. Drew Brees 32nd pick 2nd round
6. Russell Wilson 75th Pick 3rd Round
7. Deshaun Watson 12th Pick 1st Round
8. Matt Ryan 3rd Pick 1st Round
9. Matt Stafford 1st Pick 1st Round
10. Phillip Rivers 4th Pick 1st Round
11. Dak Prescott 135th Pick 4th Round
12. Ben Rothlisberger 11th Pick 1st round
13. Jared Goff 1st Pick 1st round
14. Kyler Murray 1st pick 1st round
15. Derek Carr 36th pick 2nd round

So, these are the top 15 QBs in the league today, the order isn't important, you could put Mahomes first, or Aaron Rodgers if you like, the point is, where were these guys drafted? So, by my count, 10 of the top 15 QBs were drafted in the first round, 6 of those were drafted in the top 10, 5 of them in the top5, with a further 3 of them drafted 1st overall (not counting Baker Mayfield who I wouldn't rate in the top 15 this year). 4 QBs were drafted in the first round but outside of the top 10. 5 were drafted outside of the first round with Brady drafted in the 6th round being a huge outlier.

My point? History tells me that as much as I really would love us to draft Tua there are good franchise QB's to be had outside of the top 2 or 3, and so I say, let's win away. As long as we get a top 10 pick, we should be in good shape to get a solid Franchise QB prospect, especially in this class. I didn't make a list of all of the busts, or the QBs who are in the bottom half of the league, but we can still put together a contending team with a solid QB with the current draft capital we have in 2020.

There is a solid group of QB's to choose from this year not to mention the 1 or 2 unknowns who jump to the top of the draft board unexpectedly.

By my count, there are least 7 solid QB prospects this year, some better than others, but plenty to take a chance on developing:

2020 QB Prospects

  1. Tua Tagovailoa
  2. Joe Burrow
  3. Justin Herbert
  4. Jordan Love
  5. Jake Fromm
  6. Jacob Eason
  7. Jalen Hurts
My point? I don't see us winning out, and I see us drafting in the top 10, and we will be just fine if we do, so go Phins! It's okay to root for this team to win, we will be just fine, let the chips fall where they may.
Click to expand...

To be fair, a valid analysis would list the draft positions of the remaining 17 starting QBs in the NFL. So much for the tangential. I agree some undervalue the supporting cast and coaching, but there's a floor in talent level that has to be there to be an NFL QB. Problem is, no one has found a way to increase the probability of success for any position.

While I agree with your point and think #1 pick can be overemphasized, at some point drafting top players becomes more difficult. IMO, the top 4 on your list look most finished. The bottom 3 seem to need more polish.
 
fansinceGWilson said:
To be fair, a valid analysis would list the draft positions of the remaining 17 starting QBs in the NFL. So much for the tangential. I agree some undervalue the supporting cast and coaching, but there's a floor in talent level that has to be there to be an NFL QB. Problem is, no one has found a way to increase the probability of success for any position.

While I agree with your point and think #1 pick can be overemphasized, at some point drafting top players becomes more difficult. IMO, the top 4 on your list look most finished. The bottom 3 seem to need more polish.
Click to expand...

my purpose was to look at where the top qbs in the league today where drafted. Not where the bottom half where because the bottom half are either still developing or they are average to below average. There is nothing “invalid” about this analysis, it wasn’t meant to look at the below average QBs, they were drafted all over the place. More interesting to me was to look at the above average QBs and see where they were drafted.

As for the last 3 college prospects needing more development, probably, and Herbert too, and probably Love. So what? We have Fitz, whomever comes in can sit until they are ready and learn from our veteran, or if they want to bring in another veteran, whatever.
 
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