Tua and a SuperBowl

[AgentXof12]

Yes I did a search and nothing was close, if you don't like this tread, go away.

Much has been made of Tua's inability to "shine" on the BIG stage, also his arm strength, etc. Along with this, there are those who have stated that the Phins will never win a SuperBowl with him. While I never really "supported", I guess that is the right term, selecting a QB who had such a serious injury, and who really should not have played for two years, one year full rehab, the second year learning from Fitz, it is my view that saying this team cannot win a SuperBowl with him is Myopic, allow me to explain.

Only 13 QB's have won multiple SB's, keeping in mind that there have been 56 SB's up till now, the probabilities are very low that this can be achieved, in fact one might say the old saying "lightning in a bottle" applies. This means that 43 QB's have won one SB, this really boosts the probabilities in Tuas favor. In fact, if you look at the statistics, Tua has an excellent chance of winning a SB, believe it or not.

So lets look at some of the single winners to see how the stack up against Tua.

Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler, Doug Williams, Phil Simms, Jim McMahon, out of this group, I don't see anyone who was exceptional at their position. They were good, but not exceptional, but with that in mind they were good enough to win, obviously the TEAMS they were on, as a whole were exceptional, and this is what made the difference.

The multiple winners include Brady, Montana, Roethlisberger, Mahomes. All of these QBs are outliers, once in a generation talent, so we are now in the generation of Mahomes, and this being the case, it will be quite a few years before we see another like him. If he plays another 10 yrs, I might still be around to see the next great one, but to hope that out of 32 teams Miami catches the next lightning bolt, is a bit much for me. One in 32, not good odds, I'm not saying don't even try, just sayin.

Another thing that folks do not take into account is that the team wins, the players and coaches facilitate, this is why Dan and Jim Kelly, and others never won a SB, it was not them, it was the Team including coaches. That fact that Brady, Mahomes, Marino took the NFL by storm from the get-go, does not mean that Tua is a failure, these guys were outliers. Also, remember "teams" have ups and downs, last year the Bengals not the chiefs were AFC champs, so it also depends on the team, and not on just the QB.

So in the end, Tua has, in my opinion been playing for Two years, Mikey is putting together what he believes is a winning offense, I think this whole thing needs more time to cook, maybe 2 more drafts to see if Mikey's and Chris G's vision is valid. It is my viewpoint that Tua can win a SuperBowl, but will he depends on the "team" and not just him.

The Ever HEY Mikey VIPER

If I were you, I would consider opening this up to more than just Superbowl winners as there are a bunch more QBs who led teams into the Superbowl and didn't win. I don't consider it a huge difference between going to a Superbowl and winning it. For instance, Jim Kelly led the Bills to 4 Superbowls but doesn't make your list. Russell Wilson was in 2 Superbowls but only has 1 ring. It so easily could have concluded differently and now suddenly Wilson is on your short list of QBs with two or more rings.

 

[bdizzle00]

If I were you, I would consider opening this up to more than just Superbowl winners as there are a bunch more QBs who led teams into the Superbowl and didn't win. I don't consider it a huge difference between going to a Superbowl and winning it. For instance, Jim Kelly led the Bills to 4 Superbowls but doesn't make your list. Russell Wilson was in 2 Superbowls but only has 1 ring. It so easily could have concluded differently and now suddenly Wilson is on your short list of QBs with two or more rings.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t define the talent of a QB one way or the other if they made it to or won a Superbowl.

I don’t think anyone should be in the “best ever” conversation unless they’ve won a championship, but that’s a different conversation.

 

[djphinfan]

Please elucidate dj

The Ever Paying Attention VIPER

When I evaluate players I always evaluate in isolation..I don’t take into account the weapons around the player..

With Tua he is following the outline of the quick strike offense by measuring his skill players speed and throwing to spots on the field.

What needs to happen is the offensive strategy and the player need to slow down a bit so it allows Tua to manage the game in the moment of the play, he needs to have enough time and freedom to check down to another play if his first reads are covered, right now it’s throw no matter what, he needs to show that he can look off a receiver, recalibrate his brain, see the rush, navigate the rush, scramble, run, or rest his mechanics and make an alternate throw to a different option.

This quick strike offense has such strict parameters, it’s either hit big or miss, not much in between, and that’s because Tua is not showing the skill to move and create, which I know he can, and therein lyes the issue.

I think he’s way overweight to move at the speed needed and I also think he lost his confidence..

So, the player needs to go to Siberia to train and become a lean mean machine.

And then we can start to redesign some philosophies besides the quick strike offense, we need more balance and diversity from the player and offense and Tua getting Speed and agility is Paramount tp that equation.

 

[Arnsy]

Good post.

People will always have their opinions. We can all look to plays that if they went a diferrent way everything changes.

Brock Purdy is a perfect example. Some thinks he's great, some thinks he benefits from his team.

Why is Purdy in the SB and Miami was a road team rather then home team in Wildcard round.

Tyreke Hill drops a perfect pass that would have went for a TD against Buffalo

AIYUK makes a once in a lifetime circus catch on what should have been am INT.

Both QBS played poorly. Yet ones WR made the play and the other didn't.

One gets credited for leading his team to a SB. The other gets to spend all off season reading or hearing how he's not clutch and can't win the big game

The TEAM NEEDS their QB to play well. As much as the QB needs his players to make plays.

Why is Josh Allen watching the SB at home? Because Diggs drops a perfect should be TD.

SF is not in the SB because of GREAT QB play. They are there because of a lucky bounce on a should be INT ad a miffed punt.

It's a team game. No 1 player is solely responsible for making the SB

So Miami can absolutely win and get to a SB with a QB like Tua.

Yes. A team game … and like it or not one player … the QB counts more.

I’m not saying Tua won’t be it. But I’ve not seen enough yet to say he’s elite.

 

[Arnsy]

BROOOOOOO... great thread.

Absofreakinlutey we can win the big one with Tua.

As you pointed out, much lesser QBs have a ring.

This is not rocket science, people. It's a team sport. Tua has shown individual prowess.

Get him an OLine worthy.

McDaniel- if you're reading AND WE KNOW THAT YOU ARE- how about using Hill as a decoy every now & again & scheming to other pass catchers.

Keep this defense solid.

Achane remains Achane.

We got this.

You speak of Achane like he’s the next Barry Sanders. Or Walter Payton.

Hope is great. I’m hopeful too.

He’s a fun piece… but small and often hurt. And unproven.

I’m not predicting a Canton bust on this front.

 

[bdizzle00]

Yes. A team game … and like it or not one player … the QB counts more.

I’m not saying Tua won’t be it. But I’ve not seen enough yet to say he’s elite.

Serious question, Who besides Mahomes is “Elite”, and why? no starting QB other than Mahomes and Stafford have won anything of consequence recently.

 

[GRYPHONK]

Yes. A team game … and like it or not one player … the QB counts more.

I’m not saying Tua won’t be it. But I’ve not seen enough yet to say he’s elite.

Ok

 

[Mello Yello]

Serious question, Who besides Mahomes is “Elite”, and why? no starting QB other than Mahomes and Stafford have won anything of consequence recently.

Josh Allen against Miami is elite...
Lamar Jackson against Miami is elite...
Justin Fields against Miami is elite...

...I kid, I kid.

Besides virtually any mobile QB against the Dolphins defense who all seem to have career days, I'd have to say it's Mahomes and everyone else. That certainly doesn't mean there isn't a clear list of guys who've proven to make some incredible plays when their teams all need them to, but nobody's perfect like Mahomes. Far too often people are spoken of as though they're on his level.

To be clear, nobody's on Mahomes' level.

The number of times I've heard, 'We need to find an elite QB like Mahomes, Allen and Jackson...' really obscures the fact that Mahomes is the only QB out there who's great at everything. And that's what makes him such a freak-show anomaly both on-field and in the statistical record.

I've come to appreciate that when you have a running QB like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, etc. you may very well end up with a few MVP awards and even the occasional "great" year like Kaepernick's 2012, Newton's 2015, Jackson's 2019, Allen's 2020 or Hurts' 2022. And that's if you hit on a guy, because lord knows there are plenty of Justin Fields, Kyler Murray and Zach Wilson out there as well who fail (to varying degrees) to reach the level of greatness expected on draft day.

Still, the production routinely dips immediately thereafter to levels that leave you scratching your head. Kaepernick looked good for a couple years but in his final 3 he looked more like a bust. Cam Newton was unstoppable in '15 and took the Panthers on a Super Bowl run after going 15-1 in the regular season. Still, he's remembered more for being a so-so QB. Josh Allen has spent 6 seasons in the NFL with a career passer rating of 92 in a era where that's literally average! He's only been north of 100 once. And at the end of 2023, the Eagles unstoppable offense turned into something that looked completely fraudulent. Hurts went from being the most respected guy to another example of, 'wait a minute, how do we feel about this guy?'

There's a price to be paid with mobile QBs. Not only do they inevitably slow down and lose their youthful athleticism at some point, but half their "prime" ends up being comprised of wasted years. You can toss Deshaun Watson on that pile as well.

The upside of someone like Tua--being a pocket passer--is that his "window" is basically the 15 years he'll play between being drafted and retirement wherein essentially every season will see him grow increasingly efficient based on an ever-expanding level of experience and familiarity with his offense.

It's far less likely Tua ever seriously contends for an NFL MVP award but it's not at all unlikely he consistently puts up well above-average statistical performance which gives you a pretty insanely long window around which you should be able to field some pretty awesome teams.

People spend so much time / energy talking guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen up as "elites" they really end up digging themselves into a bit of a hole when they look at who's making it to Super Bowls. The reality is that this fanbase probably has to set aside it's dreams of finding the next Marino. Believe it or not, the Buffalo Bills currently have the closest thing...a player who the fans will probably look back on and think, 'what exactly went wrong?!' I wonder if Bills fans in 2050 will sound like Dolphins fans today who lament how Miami "wasted" Marino's career.

"Elite QB" is one of the most awful terms in sports because the concept drives people away from actually understanding what's happening. Instead, we get arguments about who's more perfect than the next guy and in that kind of mental model, we can never blame them for anything nor can we explain why all the "non-franchise" QBs get to and sometimes even win Super Bowls.

I've watched Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo compete for Super Bowls in the last decade. Some of those guys had the lead. Some were up with just minutes to go. Some lost by a single score or on the final drive.

Trust me, it ain't about being perfect. And if we're being totally honest, the national opinion on what Matthew Stafford was, with his career rating of 91, is entirely different post-SB compared to where it was when he was in Detroit and viewed as a mid-tier gunslinger. No one dared make a case for Stafford as elite when he'd been in Detroit for a decade and was 0-3 in the Playoffs. He was the most impressive of the class that featured Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and others.

Truth be told, the fact that guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are imperfect isn't some fatal flaw either. Let's be honest, they still scare the crap out of us. As they should.

So can Tua win one? Absolutely, but it'll take the right kind of team. If/when it happens, fans will change their tune and crown him and talk about he "played elite down the stretch." Yeah, yeah, yeah...

 

[AgentXof12]

Yes. A team game … and like it or not one player … the QB counts more.

I’m not saying Tua won’t be it. But I’ve not seen enough yet to say he’s elite.

Being among the top 5 or 6 QBs in the league, at least according to production stats, would seem to suggest he is elite in some respects. He's certainly head and shoulders above anyone we've had at the position since 2000 even with due respect to Ryan Tannehill who had his strengths as well.

I would say that for about 6 or 7 games of the season, Tua is by far the best QB in existence.

 

[NBP81]

he needs to have enough time and freedom to check down to another play if his first reads are covered, right now it’s throw no matter what, he needs to show that he can look off a receiver, recalibrate his brain, see the rush, navigate the rush, scramble, run, or rest his mechanics and make an alternate throw to a different option.

lol! How many QBs are asked to do that within 2.5 seconds before they get crushed?

 

[marino13zach54]

You speak of Achane like he’s the next Barry Sanders. Or Walter Payton.

Hope is great. I’m hopeful too.

He’s a fun piece… but small and often hurt. And unproven.

I’m not predicting a Canton bust on this front.

Some of his runs have looked Cantonesque. The kid hits the hole at a zillion MPH with zero hesitation, none of that hop-step/dancing BS. That's what made Ricky great & Ronnie just above average and it's all I ask for of my RBs.

I can't see the future & he is small but so far, based solely on projection off what he did this passed season, he's Grier's best draft selection even better than Wilkins simply because Wilkins can't run for 60 yard TDs.

 

[bdizzle00]

Josh Allen against Miami is elite...
Lamar Jackson against Miami is elite...
Justin Fields against Miami is elite...

...I kid, I kid.

Besides virtually any mobile QB against the Dolphins defense who all seem to have career days, I'd have to say it's Mahomes and everyone else. That certainly doesn't mean there isn't a clear list of guys who've proven to make some incredible plays when their teams all need them to, but nobody's perfect like Mahomes. Far too often people are spoken of as though they're on his level. To be clear, nobody's on Mahomes' level.

The number of times I've heard, 'We need to find an elite QB like Mahomes, Allen and Jackson...' really obscures the fact that Mahomes is really the only guy who's great at everything. And that's what makes him such a freak-show anomaly both on-field and in the statistical record.

I've come to appreciate that when you have a running QB like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, etc. you may very well end up with a few MVP awards and even the occasional "great" year like Kaepernick's 2012, Newton's 2015, Jackson's 2019, Allen's 2020 or Hurts' 2022.

Still, the production routinely dips immediately thereafter to levels that leave you scratching your head. Kaepernick looked good for a couple years but in his final 3 he looked more like a bust. Cam Newton was unstoppable in '15 and took the Panthers on a Super Bowl run after going 15-1 in the regular season. Still, he's remembered more for being a so-so QB. Josh Allen has spent 6 seasons in the NFL with a career passer rating of 92 in a era where that's literally average! He's only been north of 100 once. And at the end of 2023, the Eagles unstoppable offense turned into something that looked completely fraudulent. Hurts went from being the most respected guy to another example of, 'wait a minute, who is this guy?'

There's a price to be paid with mobile QBs. Not only do they inevitably slow down and lose their youthful athleticism at some point, but half their "prime" ends up being comprised of wasted years. You can toss Deshaun Watson on that pile as well.

The upside of someone like Tua--being a pocket passer--is that his "window" is basically the 15 years he'll play between being drafted and retirement wherein essentially every season will see him grow increasingly efficient based on an ever-expanding level of experience and familiarity with his offense.

It's far less likely Tua ever seriously contends for an NFL MVP award but it's not at all unlikely he consistently puts up well above-average statistical performance which gives you a pretty insanely long window around which you should be able to field some pretty awesome teams.

People spend so much time / energy talking guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen up as "elites" they really end up digging themselves into a bit of a hole when they look at who's making it to Super Bowls. The reality is that this fanbase probably has to set aside it's dreams of finding the next Marino. Believe it or not, the Buffalo Bills currently have the closest thing...a player who the fans will probably look back on and think, 'what exactly went wrong?!' I wonder if Bills fans in 2050 will sound like Dolphins fans today who lament how Miami "wasted" Marino's career.

"Elite QB" is one of the most awful terms in sports because the concept drives people away from actually understanding what's happening. Instead, we get arguments about who's more perfect than the next guy and in that kind of mental model, we can never blame them for anything nor can we explain why all the "non-franchise" QBs get to and sometimes even win Super Bowls.

I've watched Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo compete for Super Bowls in the last decade. Trust me, it ain't about being perfect. And the fact that guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are imperfect isn't a fatal flaw. Let's be honest, they still scare the crap out of us. And they should.

Well said.

 

[djphinfan]

lol! How many QBs are asked to do that within 2.5 seconds before they get crushed?

under 2.5 seconds he can only do what he's currently doing which is dropping and firing, but after that is where the offense bogs down it seems, so collectively they need to diversify the offense to do the things i suggested

 

[mwestberry]

Both QBS played poorly. Yet ones WR made the play and the other didn't.

While I agree with your post overall, there were other factors that helped move one team forward and set another back ... one, off the top of my head, is the ability to extend the play (when discussing the Qb's)

I don't disagree with the OP ... I will add that the Qb has to show some grit when things aren't rosy ...

Tua can lead the right offensive team to a Superbowl ... as stated, many with lesser talent have done so. The team is certainly the main ingredient needed to win consistently. Defense, ST's and injuries all play a big part in all of that ... Fans still expect the Qb to be the hero, IMO.

 

[mwestberry]

Hey r, believe it or not I was just thinking about this. I have looked at Tua's highlights and found it very interesting that his biggest plays were on extending the play, but why he no longer does this, I have no idea. But it was like 50% of his game in collage.

The Ever Wondering VIPER

Maybe the hip surgery and the extra weight has played a role.