Tua Tagovailoa has given Dolphins answers they needed and earned new contract

[Mike McDaniel]

The sad thing is. I could see Tua throwing for 500 yards, 6 TDS, have a perfect rating in the wild card game. However, 1 second was left on the clock. The other team run the KO back for a TD and Miami loses.

Those same posters will post how Tua still couldn't win a playoff game

What loss have we had where Tua actually played really well? That Falcons game 2 years ago? Not much else comes to mind. Even if Tua is never the MAIN reason in a loss, he never looks like one of the best players on the field

 

[CF Dolphan]

Legacy game tomorrow. Win in the playoffs and you become a lot more comfortable writing him a blank check. He’s got to earn it

 

[NBP81]

What loss have we had where Tua actually played really well? That Falcons game 2 years ago? Not much else comes to mind. Even if Tua is never the MAIN reason in a loss, he never looks like one of the best players on the field

Now do that with other QBs... :)

 

[GRYPHONK]

What loss have we had where Tua actually played really well? That Falcons game 2 years ago? Not much else comes to mind. Even if Tua is never the MAIN reason in a loss, he never looks like one of the best players on the field

Really think about the question you asked.

Let's say you are correct. In all Miami losses, Tua doesn't play well, but is not the main reason we lose the game.

Seriously think bout that....

That implies Miami is a team built solely on the reliance of the QB

They don't have a team that can pick up the slack and win a game UNLESS Tua performs.

Look at teams like the Ravens/49ers/Bills etc.

They can win games when their QB is playing dreadful.

Look at Buffalo vs NE last week as a perfect example.

Buffalo convincingly won against Dallas when Allen threw for under 100 yards.

How many times would 10 points on offense been enough to win the game this year?

Tua-1 win against the Jets. No ties
Lamar Jackson- 4 plus 1 tie
Josh Allen- 3 wins 1 tie
Mahomes- 2 wins
Purdy- 2 wins/ 2 ties
Think of the Titans game when comparing these records.

Seeing a trend here?

Other teams allow their QBS to have a bad day or not need to score a lot to win.

Not Miami. If Tua has an off day, or the offense gets shut down, the Dolphins will probably lose.

Philly has the same problem.

There was a 4 game stretch last year where the Chargers went 4-0 or 3-1, I forget. However, Herbert only threw 1 total TD.

If Miami plays 4 straight games with only 1 Tua TD, what do you think Miamis record would be?

 

[Mello Yello]

Really think about the question you asked.

Let's say you are correct. In all Miami losses, Tua doesn't play well, but is not the main reason we lose the game.

Seriously think bout that....

That implies Miami is a team built solely on the reliance of the QB

They don't have a team that can pick up the slack and win a game UNLESS Tua performs.

Look at teams like the Ravens/49ers/Bills etc.

They can win games when their QB is playing dreadful.

Look at Buffalo vs NE last week as a perfect example.

Buffalo convincingly won against Dallas when Allen threw for under 100 yards.

How many times would 10 points on offense been enough to win the game this year?

Tua-1 win against the Jets. No ties
Lamar Jackson- 4 plus 1 tie
Josh Allen- 3 wins 1 tie
Mahomes- 2 wins
Purdy- 2 wins/ 2 ties
Think of the Titans game when comparing these records.

Seeing a trend here?

Other teams allow their QBS to have a bad day or not need to score a lot to win.

Not Miami. If Tua has an off day, or the offense gets shut down, the Dolphins will probably lose.

Philly has the same problem.

There was a 4 game stretch last year where the Chargers went 4-0 or 3-1, I forget. However, Herbert only threw 1 total TD.

If Miami plays 4 straight games with only 1 Tua TD, what do you think Miamis record would be?

This is all accurate and it frames how unique Miami's situation is.

We're just not in position to see Miami continue on exactly the way they look right now. If Tua gets re-signed (and yes, he's earned that) it'll totally transform the team around him with many current starters either not being re-signed or being cut outright. That's fine, but it represents Miami entering the 2nd phase such as we saw in Seattle once the LoB was disbanded, Marshawn Lynch retired and Russell Wilson got his payday. The Seahawks ultimately failed in that 2nd phase which led to the exit of Russell Wilson and a re-start being initiated.

I'm not saying you shouldn't re-sign your QB but let's be 100% clear here. Miami has a window which opened last year and will extend through next year. That's this 1st phase. If you re-sign Tua after 2024, you're building a different team at that point. The offensive structure will remain and we'll see pieces like Waddle and Achane around but we'll be witnessing (or preparing for) the exit of Hill, Mostert, etc. And the defense...well, who knows? Howard and Ramsey will be long gone and we'll be looking forward to a rebuild around Holland, Wilkins, etc. Fangio may not even stick around at that point.

There is an argument that once you get to that point it might not be worth banging the same drum trying to make it work with a 2nd re-build. You'll be unlikely to assemble a roster as strong as you did in '22-'24 and having already failed will you really want to re-do that whole thing again?

To me, it's so far off in the distance it's hard to really say. I think we'll see the team do the best it can managing what contracts have to be extended this offseason and it'll generally take a wait-and-see approach to the whole QB extension question until we've reached the back end of '24.

If '24 sees Tua back on the struggle bus with injury I think the whole future is uncertain. If he repeats the success of '23 and stays healthy through '24 I think the Dolphins most certainly plow ahead building around the Tua offense we've seen have so much success. I for one think it'll be interesting to see how things will evolve post-Hill. I think we'll see this offense continue churning and potentially become a bit more run-oriented (which could be a good thing!).

Anyhow, all this being said, I just think there's an interesting argument out there which points out that at the very least, it probably won't get any easier for Miami once Tua's re-signed. 2025 and beyond will mostly likely put more pressure on a less-experienced roster and if we've already seen that same core group come up short, it might be a repeat of what we witnessed in Seattle where by the end of Tua's 2nd contract he's seen more as the problem than the solution.

Fans who are speaking from this perspective will look at the '22-'24 window and basically say, 'if it didn't work under the best conditions when the Bills and Chiefs were struggling and Burrow's on IR then why would we sign up to do it again under harder circumstances when our veterans are exiting and our rivals are surely going to rebound?'

At the very least, I get that critical perspective and the pessimism it casts over a future which appears to be more of the same.

But who knows? :)

 

[Mike McDaniel]

Really think about the question you asked.

Let's say you are correct. In all Miami losses, Tua doesn't play well, but is not the main reason we lose the game.

Seriously think bout that....

That implies Miami is a team built solely on the reliance of the QB

They don't have a team that can pick up the slack and win a game UNLESS Tua performs.

Look at teams like the Ravens/49ers/Bills etc.

They can win games when their QB is playing dreadful.

Look at Buffalo vs NE last week as a perfect example.

Buffalo convincingly won against Dallas when Allen threw for under 100 yards.

How many times would 10 points on offense been enough to win the game this year?

Tua-1 win against the Jets. No ties
Lamar Jackson- 4 plus 1 tie
Josh Allen- 3 wins 1 tie
Mahomes- 2 wins
Purdy- 2 wins/ 2 ties
Think of the Titans game when comparing these records.

Seeing a trend here?

Other teams allow their QBS to have a bad day or not need to score a lot to win.

Not Miami. If Tua has an off day, or the offense gets shut down, the Dolphins will probably lose.

Philly has the same problem.

There was a 4 game stretch last year where the Chargers went 4-0 or 3-1, I forget. However, Herbert only threw 1 total TD.

If Miami plays 4 straight games with only 1 Tua TD, what do you think Miamis record would be?

For the most part, teams win by their QB playing well. Some teams are blessed with good defenses to assist when needed. The point is that Tua typically plays poorly in games even when the defense isn't playing well and typically these are against good teams and all the other games where he doesn't have this issue are against bad teams. It's a pretty noticeable trend

 

[E30M3]

For the most part, teams win by their QB playing well. Some teams are blessed with good defenses to assist when needed. The point is that Tua typically plays poorly in games even when the defense isn't playing well and typically these are against good teams and all the other games where he doesn't have this issue are against bad teams. It's a pretty noticeable trend

I would argue this. All year it has been one or the other who have carried the games, offense or defense that is. There have only been two games where both have clicked, WAS and DEN. In all others it has either been the offense carrying the bleeding defense or the defense creating turnovers and scoring points.

 

[Mello Yello]

Tua doesn't play poorly in big games.

What people are trying to describe is how an offense based around Tua's quick throws will sometimes bog down and how historically (even at Alabama) there has typically been very little alternative to jump start the offense.

In 2018, Bama was unstoppable against a slew of meaningless teams during the regular season. Then they faced GA in the SEC Title Game (this was the year Bama played Trevor Lawrence and Clemson for the National Championship). In the SEC Title Game, the Bulldogs hit Tua and shut down the Tide's offense. I think Tua had around 160 passing yards and 2 picks.

The Tide simply didn't have an answer until Tua was pulled with another ankle injury and Jalen Hurts was inserted. Hurts ended up jump-starting the offense with his rushing and won the game much like Tua had done a year prior in the National Championship.

To me, it's this type of performance which Tua has run from his entire career. When a good defense prepares for the Tua attack and knows how to disrupt it a bit, there's just not much of a counter because Tua isn't a runner or scrambler.

It has very little to due with Tua suddenly becoming inaccurate or something. It's just hard to find an answer when Plan A gets thwarted. Tua is not the type of QB who possesses the skills necessary to take the game into his hands. He relies on his pass protection and WRs to do their part and so the system has to work. When it doesn't, there's little the coaches can do.

This is the QB you drafted. You knew the system would need to stay intact even in difficult circumstances. The team's job is to never let it get to the point of needing their Drew Brees to run around and make plays. That's never going to happen and you could see it pretty early on.


I for one think Tua has played remarkably well in big games this year, pressing less than he ever has. The problem is he still needs the system to work around him. When the OL allows some pressure or a WR runs the wrong route and a ball lands in some empty void in coverage it's easy for the whole house of cards to fall down and the system to look inept at times.

This is the double-edged sword of having a highly-structured offense. Your QB can do all the right things and someone else can still screw it up. There's an inherent lack of robustness which ties directly to Tua and the nature of an offense built around his skillset.

This isn't anyone's "fault" per se rather something innate within something so highly-structured. The truth is that guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson just don't operate within as much structure and it's part of what increases the robustness of those teams' operation. There's less that has to go right. That's why people favor those types of QBs in today's modern NFL. Defenses are really good and scripting stuff only goes so far.

 

[GRYPHONK]

For the most part, teams win by their QB playing well. Some teams are blessed with good defenses to assist when needed. The point is that Tua typically plays poorly in games even when the defense isn't playing well and typically these are against good teams and all the other games where he doesn't have this issue are against bad teams. It's a pretty noticeable trend

But you see, what you say is poor play from Tua, when compared to other top QBS against the same defense, its not poor play.

There is too high of an expectation and unrealistic standards for Tua that is not placed on other QBS.

I mean, some claim the offense, and Tua specifically has been off or playing poorly since the Denver game.

If Tua has been playing so poorly, or average FB for WEEKS now, how average or poorly have other QBS been playing when Tua is either leading QB stats and metrics or top 5.

Other QBS play average or poorly also. Moreso then you think. For every great play Allen or Mahomes make with their legs, Tua makes a throw that neither of those 2 could.

I just showed a stat showing Miamis offense NEEDS to do more then other teams. The Dolphins are MORE reliant on Tua then most playoff teams. The Lions and Eaglea are the exception.

We see Tua every week, every play. We don't see these other QBS every week, every play.

If you think Tua throws 2 or 3 WTF throws a game. You're eight.
But I dare you to watch Allen for a full game. Mahomes fir a full game. Hurts for a full game. Jackson for a full game ( not the Dolphins lol)

You will see QBS consistently missing wide open WRS or throwing multiple passes a game that could have or should have been TOS.

The diferrence, again, is the other teams allow their QBS to have poor games and still win.

Additionally, Miami allows their RBS to actually run the ball inside the 5 yard line. There's a reason Mostert has 18 rushing TDS on 1012 yards rushing and Jame's Cook has 2 rushing TDS on 1086 yards rushing

But hey, everyone loves seeing Allen rack up total TDS right? Of course, that is not directly meant towards you. Just a general comment to the new narrative of total TDS for QBS.

When your RB has 174 yards rushing. And your QB has as many or more RUSHING TDS then your RB, there's a problem there

 

[Mello Yello]

Good points, @GRYPHONK

 

[Bob512]

But hey, everyone loves seeing Allen rack up total TDS right? Of course, that is not directly meant towards you. Just a general comment to the new narrative of total TDS for QBS.

When your RB has 174 yards rushing. And your QB has as many or more RUSHING TDS then your RB, there's a problem there

This is a really good point!

 

[GRYPHONK]

This is a really good point!

Thanks!

This is why I don't care or put stock in the total TDS argument. Lamar Jackson/ Allen and Hurts are not rushing for 10+yards everytime for a TD. They're stealing TDS from the RB.

Perfect example. Again, Josh Allen had 2 rushing TDS against the Patriots.

The Bills ran 5 run plays inside NES 4 yard line. Only 1 rush was by Cook. 4 were by Allen.
The other 4 plays inside the 4 were? Surprise surprise.... Throws by Allen. All incomplete.
So inside the 4 yard line, Allen was given 8 chances for a TD. Their RB only 1.

 

[Bostonfin]

I disagree. He may win a SB someday but It won’t be with a pass heavy team.

TUA is okay, not great! And he is injury-prone!

 

[GRYPHONK]

I disagree. He may win a SB someday but It won’t be with a pass heavy team.

TUA is okay, not great! And he is injury-prone!

Can you name 1 other QB, in NFL history who lead the league in passing yards AND completion % who was injury prone and an okay QB but not great?

 

[MARINO1384]

What loss have we had where Tua actually played really well? That Falcons game 2 years ago? Not much else comes to mind. Even if Tua is never the MAIN reason in a loss, he never looks like one of the best players on the field

On the other hand what game have we won where Tua has looked bad hell even average. I’ve seen the Bills win games with Allen throwing for 96 yards and a td. Saw Herbert win a game throwing for 136 yards and no tds and the chargers suck. Hell Mahomes beat us throwing for 180 yards. It’s a team game at some point sure I’d love to see Tua carry to a win but when it’s not there and he’s off the rest of the team has to do the same. This team is entirely too dependent on his play which is a problem for any qb but throw in the fact that he’s semi limited in aspects of his game and it’s a big issue for the team.