Tua Tagovailoa's draft stock following injury

[Feverdream]

I'd spend a 3rd. Keep in mind they're likely to gain an extra 3rd from trading down. They still need to draft another QB if they go the Tua route imo.

I wouldn't complain about that. When you have as many picks as we do, you can afford to do that.
Draft him, put him on the PUP list for a year and pay all his medical expenses.

 

[finomenal]

Just hearing about this injury makes my hip hurt. Absolutely gruesome. Football aside, I just hope the guy is able to recover enough to enjoy his life with minimal pain.

Saved me a click. I'm sure it's great info, but nope.

 

[EJay]

I bet he stays in school.

And if he does, which I would totally understand, it would change the direction of my draft if I was GM of the Dolphins.

With Tua out of the picture, I wouldn’t draft a QB in 2020. Because in 2021 the lineup is likely now to include Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. I love that group a helluva lot more than Herbert, Burrow, Eason, Love and Fromm.

And with the Dolphins draft resources in 2021, they can realistically be in position to end up with one of those three. Especially if they trade down using one of their 3 1st rounders in 2020.

I’d much prefer to bring back Fitz, Rosen or perhaps another stop gap FA QB and focus on every other position, specifically both sides of the lines and any elite level skill position they can get their hands on.

Chase Young, Jerry Jeudy, Derrick Brown, Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Grant Delpit, Jeffrey Okudah, Xavier McKinney, CeeDee Lamb, Isaiah Simmons, etc.

Those are the types of players I hope they’d be looking to select with their 3 1st rounders.

Skip out on QB until 2021, unless one of the lesser prospects they like is available beyond the 3rd round. But they can double down next season with one of the top guys in the 1st round.

 

[EJay]

He cannot stay healthy in college, how in the hell would he survive the NFL.

That‘s a lazy conclusion. There have been lots of injury riddled players in HS and/or college that turned out ok in the NFL. Besides, any of Tua’s injuries could have happened to anyone. Also, the NFL tends to overprotect their QB’s if you haven’t noticed.

I don’t pretend to know whether Tua’s hip injury will affect his pro career. Nobody does, although early indications are that he is expected to recover fully. But just because he’s been injured a few times in college doesn’t mean he will suffer the same fate in the NFL.

Think about it. There have been tons of players that didn’t have great collegiate careers that suddenly developed into stars at the next level. But I’m sure many fans had the same rationale as you and thought “they couldn’t star in college so how the hell will they succeed in the NFL.”.

Things can and often do drastically change.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

And with the Dolphins draft resources in 2021, they can realistically be in position to end up with one of those three.

That's simply not accurate. Fans annually don't understand how few games you have to win to be atop the draft list, and fans annually don't understand how much it takes to move up, if premier quarterbacks are available. Those slots are not surrendered.

It is borderline if the Dolphins have enough resources right now. In 2021 the resources will be far fewer, and it's a big long shot the Dolphins will be this bad again and threaten a quick visit to the podium.

 

[EJay]

That's simply not accurate. Fans annually don't understand how few games you have to win to be atop the draft list, and fans annually don't understand how much it takes to move up, if premier quarterbacks are available. Those slots are not surrendered.

It is borderline if the Dolphins have enough resources right now. In 2021 the resources will be far fewer, and it's a big long shot the Dolphins will be this bad again and threaten a quick visit to the podium.

It is so accurate. Or likely to be. Prove to me how it is inaccurate.

If your argument is that it won't necessarily be 'easy' or 'cheap', then ok. But not accurate? Please. I have as much understanding about how it has worked historically as you do.

First, odds are that the Dolphins will again have a 1st round draft pick -- of their own -- in the top half of the 1st round. Could even be top 10 or even top 5.

Then they'll have another 1st from HOU. Likely to be in the bottom half of the draft.

If they trade down using one of their 1st's this year, they can acquire even more draft capital -- possibly even a third 1st rounder -- depending upon which one they use to trade down and how far.

And they also have multiple 2nd's in 2021. Which means they'll have enough capital, if they want, to be able to trade up for one of those 3 players. That's not even including their own 1st's from 2022 and 2023.

If they're selecting 10th in 2021, for example, they'll definitely have the goods to trade up 7 spots. You claiming that they won't isn't so accurate either.

The odds of three teams at the top of the draft being 100% married to drafting a QB come hell or high water isn't very logical. Odds are at least 1, if not 2, would be willing to trade the pick for a killer return. And the Dolphins will be in as good a position as any franchise to make it happen should they want to.

 

[FSU Truth]

Tua's medical will be the most scrutinized in draft history because of the level of player he is and the position he plays, Obviously, the injury is unique and I don't know, outside of the doctors who have operated on him, know exactly the impact of the injury. Those videos are nice and give some insight into what potentially happen but none of those DRs know outside of speculation. This goes for the doctors who say he will make a full recovery and those who think he will never play again.

The post-surgery reports suggest that it was a successful surgery and he should make a full recovery. I do take those with a grain of salt, as I doubt anyone would come out and say something different.

6 months from now we should have a much clearer picture of where he is and his recovery.

If it appears he will make a full recovery and can play at in 2021 (yes, a year of sitting) I don't see anything that will keep him from still being a top 10 pick. We have seen players who have had devastating knee injuries in bowl games and sit out for a season, still get drafted in round one, and many of those players, play less important positions.

Miami went from winning two games to not have a shot at drafting him to now being able to draft him without having to trade up and I would want them to draft him with our first pick. HE was the best QB prospect in the draft in a pretty good QB draft, he is also the best QB prospect in the last 5 or so years (maybe more). That injury may scare off some teams, but others will be looking at it as an opportunity to get a premier QB, that would have cost them picks for the next 2 or 3 years with minimum cost. Teams will take that chance in the hope of landing the type of QB that can have a huge impact on a franchise.

Last year, when the Dolphins traded for Rosen, I could not have been happier, not that I love the player or anything, but the fact that the franchise was willing to swing for a player instead of drafting a center or some other position. Keep swinging for QBs.

Personally, I grab Tua and another QB, maybe even in round 1 (I think Huntley slowly works his way to the end of round 1) and go from there. Give yourself as many chances at drafting a QB as you can, especially ones who have shown elite traits.

 

[EJay]

The post-surgery reports suggest that it was a successful surgery and he should make a full recovery. I do take those with a grain of salt, as I doubt anyone would come out and say something different.

I don't think he'd say anything unless he believed it. He's got a reputation to uphold.

Apparently, the surgeon also made comments about the Bo Jackson comparison speculation.

 

[FSU Truth]

I don't think he'd say anything unless he believed it. He's got a reputation to uphold.

Apparently, the surgeon also made comments about the Bo Jackson comparison speculation.

That is very true.

 

[Danny]

I keep hearing "fully recover" and I'm sure they mean it but my question is when will he be "fully recovered?"

Unless I missed it I haven't heard any doctor said that he should fully recover AND will be able to play again.
Not saying he won't be able to but people are taking this "fully recover" to the extreme. "Fully recover" could be he will walk again fine as an everyday person does. I'm looking for the "fully recover and will play again at the same level he did before the injury.

Again, not saying he won't be. Just saying that "fully recover" doesn't mean he'll play QB in the NFL and it sure doesn't mean he'll play as good as it was projected before the injury.

The end.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

And if he does, which I would totally understand, it would change the direction of my draft if I was GM of the Dolphins.

With Tua out of the picture, I wouldn’t draft a QB in 2020. Because in 2021 the lineup is likely now to include Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. I love that group a helluva lot more than Herbert, Burrow, Eason, Love and Fromm.

And with the Dolphins draft resources in 2021, they can realistically be in position to end up with one of those three. Especially if they trade down using one of their 3 1st rounders in 2020.

I’d much prefer to bring back Fitz, Rosen or perhaps another stop gap FA QB and focus on every other position, specifically both sides of the lines and any elite level skill position they can get their hands on.

Chase Young, Jerry Jeudy, Derrick Brown, Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Grant Delpit, Jeffrey Okudah, Xavier McKinney, CeeDee Lamb, Isaiah Simmons, etc.

Those are the types of players I hope they’d be looking to select with their 3 1st rounders.

Skip out on QB until 2021, unless one of the lesser prospects they like is available beyond the 3rd round. But they can double down next season with one of the top guys in the 1st round.

You make good points. But what if Miami ends up around .500 in 2021 and misses out on one of those guys? I'd still look to draft a quarterback, maybe swing for the fences with Herbert who has a lot of traits to develop.

 

[qmar]

"recovery" outcome is well beyond the draft envelop.

And we're takin' his ability to EVER compete as a PRO.

There's ZERO chance any team is going to invest an R1. I doubt an R2

UNLESS the news after the surgery is absolute best case scenario.

But the truth is -- he suffered a brutal injury -- worse than Bo Jackson -- and

love the kid or not it sucks at the highest order for him -- and let's be

compassionate -- for his fans!

It really blows on so many levels that this happened...

Not sure how you can proclaim there is zero chance any team invests a R1 pick. While his injury is worse than Bo Jackson's, we also have 30 years of medical advancement and training / rehab progression. If he comes out of surgery and the doctors give a thumbs up to how things went, he gets the right rehab, continues to get clearance that avascular necrosis is unlikely to come about, teams may very well take a chance on him in the 1st. We are talking about a QB that was likely and deservedly the 1st pick overall before this injury. If there is any chance he can recover from this and play again, teams will be open to blowing a 1st round pick on this type of team outcome changer.

 

[where's th'fish]

Been looking into his injury and based on the feedback of experts

the kids career is DEFINITELY in jeopardy. His injury is actually worse

than what Bo suffered -- tho the technology today is decidedly better...

But Tua is facing surgery -- and it's probably rather severe.

It seems recovery (at best) is way down the road and there are

significant risks to the long term viability of the joint -- especially

when you're factoring in a "professional athlete" regiment.

Here are 2 videos that seem quite illuminating on this subject...

I'm too lazy to watch the videos, but I wonder if it matches what the Football Outsiders injury expert had to say:

"Hip dislocations are generally major medical emergencies, but they also bring an increased risk of future dislocation -- witness former Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta, whose career was ended by his third right hip dislocation in five years between 2013 and 2017. Tagovailoa's injury history was already a reported concern for teams even before this incident; this is among the worst possible injuries at the worst possible time for the 21-year-old college junior. "

Also, if the hip dislocation carries the risk of the same happening again, I don't see what he has to gain by staying in school. Better get straight to the pros and get as much as he can out of the time he has. And hopefully he gets lucky and the injury never reoccurrs.

 

[BigNastyFish]

Not sure how you can proclaim there is zero chance any team invests a R1 pick. While his injury is worse than Bo Jackson's, we also have 30 years of medical advancement and training / rehab progression. If he comes out of surgery and the doctors give a thumbs up to how things went, he gets the right rehab, continues to get clearance that avascular necrosis is unlikely to come about, teams may very well take a chance on him in the 1st. We are talking about a QB that was likely and deservedly the 1st pick overall before this injury. If there is any chance he can recover from this and play again, teams will be open to blowing a 1st round pick on this type of team outcome changer.

Perhaps... But high risk if he can't "prove" his viability

 

[Vaark]

Whether Tua fully recovers or not, if his durability wasn't questionable enough before, it certainly is a red flag now!