Tua Tagovailoa's draft stock following injury

[dan the fin]

Seems like everyone's discounting it but I think Tua returns for his senor year to prove he's healthy like you say.

There is a very very high chance no matter how good the recovery is going that he will not be playing football anywhere next year. If he recovers fully you are still looking at like a year time frame befire he is good to go.

No reason to go back to Bama to sit a season. Get drafted at least he is getting paid and then he could focus 100% on rehab instead of having to attend classes as well. If can't make it back on the field he can always go back to school.

 

[Geordie]

I find it a little funny that we need the elite level QB like the bolded guys yet only 2 of those guys where drafted in the first round and none in the top 10. Now I don't claim to know who to draft but to act like if we don't draft Tau we are missing out on our only chance at an elite QB is false.

As far as Tau I don't know if I would take him with our first. Tau is a very good prospect that is for sure but even before the injury he was not a sure fire Luck type prospect. There were injury concerns even before the hip injury. Maye if the reports come out positive on his hip you take him with the Pitt pick if he us there and I think he will be.

Brees and Wilson victims of the era in which they were drafted and the general fear of drafting undersized QB's, their success has led to players like Murray being chosen #1. If they were coming out of college this year they would be drafted a hell of a lot higher than where they were based on their college careers. Mahomes was a victim of the lack of respect folks had for the air raid offense, even just two year's later his stock would be higher. Rodgers should never have slipped to where he did, a lot of GMs where just plain dumb in that draft. Brady's college stats where never "wow" enough for folks to want to invest a high pick in, obviously they were all wrong.

He had two high ankle sprains, injuries which happen to virtually every high level sportsmen over their careers, they are often forgotten about because the standard treatment is to rest and not undergo surgery, the surgery Tua went under for both ankels was elective and done to prevent him sustaining the same injury ever again. The only other injury on his record was a knee, not sure what happened with that one, but I don't think he had surgery on it. The hip injury was in my view a bi-product of Saban rushing him back, had he been 100% fit, I'm pretty sure that injury doesn't happen. His injury record prior to this hip thing is way better than Herbert's yet no one talks of him in this kind of way.

 

[Geordie]

There is a very very high chance no matter how good the recovery is going that he will not be playing football anywhere next year. If he recovers fully you are still looking at like a year time frame befire he is good to go.

No reason to go back to Bama to sit a season. Get drafted at least he is getting paid and then he could focus 100% on rehab instead of having to attend classes as well. If can't make it back on the field he can always go back to school.

And you make this statement because you are privvy to the procedure he went under, the severity of the damage and have assessed him yourself ? Or are you just guessing ?

 

[Geordie]

You bring up a good point regarding the patience with Herbert and Love. It seems to be a general consensus that Herbert would benefit from a year of sitting behind an established starter...so it's something that has to be taken into account that BOTH Tua and Herbert would likely sit until 2021.

Depending on the recovery period for this hip that may be the scenario we face should we draft Tua. With Herbert you have to sit him a year if you want him to develop as he should, however like many examples the clamor to play top picks will be too great to withstand when jobs are on the line, if your team starts to lose under the veteran guy. Case in point Haskins and Jones this year, neither really are ready.

 

[Feverdream]

And you make this statement because you are privvy to the procedure he went under, the severity of the damage and have assessed him yourself ? Or are you just guessing ?

I spoke to an actual orthopedist who did his residency at U. of Minnesota and has worked on Timberwolves players.

He is just one guy, but his guess was that Tua SHOULDN'T play next year.
That said... it doesn't mean that he won't.

 

[dan the fin]

And you make this statement because you are privvy to the procedure he went under, the severity of the damage and have assessed him yourself ? Or are you just guessing ?

It has been said in a few places. It is a major injury that takes time to heal then after that is rehab and having to build back strength. Say he gets great reports back that say he will be back to 100% and Mia drafts him I tell you what I don't want to see him on the field next year at all. Take the whole year for him to heal and rebuild strength in that leg. It will be awhile before he can lift weights with that leg at all. No need to rush things at all.

 

[Geordie]

I spoke to an actual orthopedist who did his residency at U. of Minnesota and has worked on Timberwolves players.

He is just one guy, but his guess was that Tua SHOULDN'T play next year.
That said... it doesn't mean that he won't.

And that is, sorry to be blunt, irrelevent, unless you speak to the guy that has done the surgery and or is in charge of his recovery program, anyone else opinion is just hot air and guess work. Every doctor will say they have to examine the patient themselves before making statements like that, every case is different, we don't even know for sure the extent of the operation he had.

 

[Geordie]

It has been said in a few places. It is a major injury that takes time to heal then after that is rehab and having to build back strength. Say he gets great reports back that say he will be back to 100% and Mia drafts him I tell you what I don't want to see him on the field next year at all. Take the whole year for him to heal and rebuild strength in that leg. It will be awhile before he can lift weights with that leg at all. No need to rush things at all.

So you are listening to rumours and guessing, ok got it.

 

[Feverdream]

And that is, sorry to be blunt, irrelevent, unless you speak to the guy that has done the surgery and or is in charge of his recovery program, anyone else opinion is just hot air and guess work. Every doctor will say they have to examine the patient themselves before making statements like that, every case is different, we don't even know for sure the extent of the operation he had.

To a certain extent, you are correct.

But it is also true that if the procedure has been done multiple times and the doctor has studied it... then there is a baseline of information.

 

[dan the fin]

So you are listening to rumours and guessing, ok got it.

Come on man really? It is making an educated guess not throwing darts at spinning wheel.

"The recovery for this, even in a young healthy guy, is 6-12 months. I tend to err on the side of 12 months," Levitt said. "Let's say that everything goes perfectly and they are able to restore the anatomy, the bone heals and he can start his rehabilitation process. The second concern that you have in terms of months ahead is whether the blood supply to the ball was compromised. It is possible that the ball itself will die.

That is from Dr. Louis Levitt, who serves as Vice President and Secretary for The Centers for Advanced Orthopaedics in Washington, D.C.

So basically he just that is the absolute best case and he would error on closer to 12 months. Plus the time to get back to football level strength. It is not like he has a desk job here.

Look I am not saying Tau is done. Just that best case is still less then 50% that he plays next year.

 

[Feverdream]

For a young player like Tua... rushing back to play an extremely dangerous game before being 100% healed would be mind-bogglingly reckless.

He has an impressive work history that shows that he's worth waiting on. If he's the smart guy that his backers describe... he sits.

 

[Birdmond]

When the line comes out I’ll be placing a bet Tua is a first round draft choice. Easy money.

 

[dan the fin]

For a young player like Tua... rushing back to play an extremely dangerous game before being 100% healed would be mind-bogglingly reckless.

He has an impressive work history that shows that he's worth waiting on. If he's the smart guy that his backers describe... he sits.

Yep. If I drfted the kid he wouldn't play next year. Even if he is cleared mid season I take the long term approach. I want him 100% physically, mentally and in tip top football shape. You are drafting a young QB that you want to lead your team for the next 10 to 15 years no reason to rush anything at all.

 

[Feverdream]

Yep. If I drfted the kid he wouldn't play next year. Even if he is cleared mid season I take the long term approach. I want him 100% physically, mentally and in tip top football shape. You are drafting a young QB that you want to lead your team for the next 10 to 15 years no reason to rush anything at all.

So many fans dont believe in this any longer.
Yes, some QBs are really solid right out of the box, but let's be honest, almost all of them are leg guys... the brand of QB that runs around looking for openings... the cerebral guys take a bit longer.

That's okay by me, they last longer too.

 

[BigNastyFish]

My opinion, those who are looking at Tua as essentially the same
commodity (i.e., value) he was before the hip are not being realistic.
It's not as simple as just saying the kid comes with a 1 year redshirt
exemption. The questions run much deeper than that, including the
absolute certainty the kid is going to be exposed to even bigger,
faster dudes chasing him around in the NFL.

Simple question -- you see the kid getting slammed/tackled in a
Miami Dolphins uniform and you're NOT going to be immediately
concerned about him getting injured? Honestly. Seriously. Doesn't
that seem like too much risk for an R1 pick?

And with all the maneuvering and sacrifice to stockpile picks I'm just
not OK with that kind of risk. But then again I don't see things as
binary as some -- meaning there's more than ONE possibility @QB
in the 20 draft.