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Tua Tale of the Tape

I only reference Buffalo for Miami cause it’s the division I have to win to land any home playoff games. And that shits already stacked against me for the foreseeable future. Winning the division

At the end of the day I’m well past caring about regular season success. 10 wins don’t win the division road here we come. Problems
 
That’s your best bet with Josh allen. Pray for injury due to the usage and amount of contact they let him play to.

Outside of that status quo personnel wise be it qb and the defense and even adding a tyreek hill they still got ya by the short hairs cause when you go up there and that wind primary and freezing temps etc. is everywhere and you relying on a quick passing game predicated on timing and ball placement primary and hiding a qbs physical limitations with the run game…well your second best bet is to pray that that run game is hurting them.

Probably still won’t be enough offset for Josh allen in the end though. And if you can’t run the ball playing with these small skill guys they are gonna bludgeon ya.
Read above this got posted before I was finished
 
I only reference Buffalo for Miami cause it’s the division I have to win to land any home playoff games. And that shits already stacked against me for the foreseeable future. Winning the division

At the end of the day I’m well past caring about regular season success. 10 wins don’t win the division road here we come. Problems
The run game insulates any QB in bad conditions it is an absolute must IMO
 
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.

The problem on your second pic isn’t 6 vs 3 at all. It’s the fact that you don’t have tackle feet and foot speed athletes in space there and the saints know it. So they rush the edges and play an underneath zone.

That lack of tackle feet and foot speed at the tackle position capped your season before it ever even began. Wonder who said that after watching preseason games even? 🤔
 
That’s your best bet with Josh allen. Pray for injury due to the usage and amount of contact they let him play to.

Outside of that status quo personnel wise be it qb and the defense and even adding a tyreek hill they still got ya by the short hairs cause when you go up there and that wind primary and freezing temps etc. is everywhere and you relying on a quick passing game predicated on timing and ball placement primary and hiding a qbs physical limitations with the run game…well your second best bet is to pray that that run game is hurting them.

Probably still won’t be enough offset for Josh allen in the end though. And if you can’t run the ball playing with these small skill guys they are gonna bludgeon ya.
We are going to disagree on Tua’s physical limitations - Tua was hurt you saw a hurt Tua yes Tua was hurt we all saw him coming back from a big injury he is every bit as think as JA

The ball doesn’t come his hand like JA but Tua has other intangibles -

I don’t want my QB running straight into the teeth of the D as a regular feature it isn’t sustainable
 
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.

Your first pic you can’t really reference without referencing miamis concept relative to the coverage played. If that a heavy package designed boot or roll out etc you aren’t gonna be sending more than 3 guys into downfield concepts etc. and teams are likely to play drop zone off the pa based on how you line up etc with your splits etc. it’s just way too loaded to post this pic as a good example.

Stills suck for stuff like this
 
Your first pic you can’t really reference without referencing miamis concept relative to the coverage played. If that a heavy package designed boot or roll out etc you aren’t gonna be sending more than 3 guys into downfield concepts etc. and teams are likely to play drop zone off the pa based on how you line up etc with your splits etc. it’s just way too loaded to post this pic as a good example.

Stills suck for stuff like this
I have 25 like these in 2 games, one of which I saw live which prompted me looking into it...
 
Debunk the road playoff success Sherlock. Cause that was the point all along. You’d think the January reference with trips to Buffalo would spell it out for ya.

That team won one super bowl. It underachieved under drew Brees frankly in the postseason.
Just so you remember your claim is Bree's lack of playoff success on the road was due to him being limited in physical size, which correlated to him struggling in away games in the playoffs due to bad weather (you will try and spin it to something else after this anyway).

Sherlock? He actually does research. You sound like the snarky little know it all who saw a segment about Drew Bree's on ESPN, that claimed his lack of playoff road success was due to weather and now claim it as your own knowledge. Now lets just see if your little theory is actually based on any facts about Bree's road playoff games.

Game 1: Jan 11, 2007 GTW- 20 deg 10 mph wind. Bree's 27/49 354yrds 2TD 1INT.
Probably the worst playoff weather conditions Brees ever faced, as a 3pm kickoff in Chicago it got cold and the wind actually picked up some. Had to be Brees inability to throw in the cold and wind that lost this game right? Not the fact that he was on his first ever road playoff game against the #3 ranked D in the NFL. 354 yards and 2 TDS is just crap, the running game was stellar with 56 yards 0TDS and 2 Fumbles lost. Chicago in January just to much for little Drew.

Game 2: Jan 8, 2011 GTW- 40 deg 8 mph. Brees 39/60 404 2TDs
In this game it was the 8mph wind that caused Bree's to allow Seattle to score 41 points

Game 3: Jan 14, 2012 GTW-62 deg 2 mph wind. Brees 40/63 462yrds 4tds 2ints
Brees wet the bed on this one by throwing 2ints against the #2 ranked D, if it wouldn't have been so windy (with that tiny little arm) it would have been 0 ints.

Game 4: Jan 11, 2014 GTW 48 degs 20mph wind. Brees 24/43 309yrds 1TD
First time ever in a playoff loss Brees failed to throw over 350 yards (309) and multiple TDs (1). Clearly this abysmal performance was because the 20+ mph winds (it was actually really windy), I mean Wilson with his cannon for an arm threw all over for 103 yards on 9/18 passing. If Brees was strong enough to throw in the wind it was an easy win. One of the D best pass defenses in modern NFL history really didn't play a factor at all.

Game 5: Was in a Dome (Minnesota) no weather factor.

So as you can clearly see by the weather and by the numbers Brees put up in the 4 road losses, his lack of size and arm strength was why he only won 1 SB. It is clear that 5 SBs was a shoe in if he had a big strong arm.

matt damon apples GIF

Now go and try and spin it. Maybe you can go cherry pick some regular season games where the weather was bad and he didn't have a great game.
 
Just so you remember your claim is Bree's lack of playoff success on the road was due to him being limited in physical size, which correlated to him struggling in away games in the playoffs due to bad weather (you will try and spin it to something else after this anyway).

Sherlock? He actually does research. You sound like the snarky little know it all who saw a segment about Drew Bree's on ESPN, that claimed his lack of playoff road success was due to weather and now claim it as your own knowledge. Now lets just see if your little theory is actually based on any facts about Bree's road playoff games.

Game 1: Jan 11, 2007 GTW- 20 deg 10 mph wind. Bree's 27/49 354yrds 2TD 1INT.
Probably the worst playoff weather conditions Brees ever faced, as a 3pm kickoff in Chicago it got cold and the wind actually picked up some. Had to be Brees inability to throw in the cold and wind that lost this game right? Not the fact that he was on his first ever road playoff game against the #3 ranked D in the NFL. 354 yards and 2 TDS is just crap, the running game was stellar with 56 yards 0TDS and 2 Fumbles lost. Chicago in January just to much for little Drew.

Game 2: Jan 8, 2011 GTW- 40 deg 8 mph. Brees 39/60 404 2TDs
In this game it was the 8mph wind that caused Bree's to allow Seattle to score 41 points

Game 3: Jan 14, 2012 GTW-62 deg 2 mph wind. Brees 40/63 462yrds 4tds 2ints
Brees wet the bed on this one by throwing 2ints against the #2 ranked D, if it wouldn't have been so windy (with that tiny little arm) it would have been 0 ints.

Game 4: Jan 11, 2014 GTW 48 degs 20mph wind. Brees 24/43 309yrds 1TD
First time ever in a playoff loss Brees failed to throw over 350 yards (309) and multiple TDs (1). Clearly this abysmal performance was because the 20+ mph winds (it was actually really windy), I mean Wilson with his cannon for an arm threw all over for 103 yards on 9/18 passing. If Brees was strong enough to throw in the wind it was an easy win. One of the D best pass defenses in modern NFL history really didn't play a factor at all.

Game 5: Was in a Dome (Minnesota) no weather factor.

So as you can clearly see by the weather and by the numbers Brees put up in the 4 road losses, his lack of size and arm strength was why he only won 1 SB. It is clear that 5 SBs was a shoe in if he had a big strong arm.

matt damon apples GIF

Now go and try and spin it. Maybe you can go cherry pick some regular season games where the weather was bad and he didn't have a great game.

Show me one example where I referenced the size of drew Brees? I’ll wait for it

Gonna be a long wait

So no road playoff games since 2014 huh. You sure about that?
 
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Just so you remember your claim is Bree's lack of playoff success on the road was due to him being limited in physical size, which correlated to him struggling in away games in the playoffs due to bad weather (you will try and spin it to something else after this anyway).

Sherlock? He actually does research. You sound like the snarky little know it all who saw a segment about Drew Bree's on ESPN, that claimed his lack of playoff road success was due to weather and now claim it as your own knowledge. Now lets just see if your little theory is actually based on any facts about Bree's road playoff games.

Game 1: Jan 11, 2007 GTW- 20 deg 10 mph wind. Bree's 27/49 354yrds 2TD 1INT.
Probably the worst playoff weather conditions Brees ever faced, as a 3pm kickoff in Chicago it got cold and the wind actually picked up some. Had to be Brees inability to throw in the cold and wind that lost this game right? Not the fact that he was on his first ever road playoff game against the #3 ranked D in the NFL. 354 yards and 2 TDS is just crap, the running game was stellar with 56 yards 0TDS and 2 Fumbles lost. Chicago in January just to much for little Drew.

Game 2: Jan 8, 2011 GTW- 40 deg 8 mph. Brees 39/60 404 2TDs
In this game it was the 8mph wind that caused Bree's to allow Seattle to score 41 points

Game 3: Jan 14, 2012 GTW-62 deg 2 mph wind. Brees 40/63 462yrds 4tds 2ints
Brees wet the bed on this one by throwing 2ints against the #2 ranked D, if it wouldn't have been so windy (with that tiny little arm) it would have been 0 ints.

Game 4: Jan 11, 2014 GTW 48 degs 20mph wind. Brees 24/43 309yrds 1TD
First time ever in a playoff loss Brees failed to throw over 350 yards (309) and multiple TDs (1). Clearly this abysmal performance was because the 20+ mph winds (it was actually really windy), I mean Wilson with his cannon for an arm threw all over for 103 yards on 9/18 passing. If Brees was strong enough to throw in the wind it was an easy win. One of the D best pass defenses in modern NFL history really didn't play a factor at all.

Game 5: Was in a Dome (Minnesota) no weather factor.

So as you can clearly see by the weather and by the numbers Brees put up in the 4 road losses, his lack of size and arm strength was why he only won 1 SB. It is clear that 5 SBs was a shoe in if he had a big strong arm.

matt damon apples GIF

Now go and try and spin it. Maybe you can go cherry pick some regular season games where the weather was bad and he didn't have a great game.

Also your first example game wise is the only one that’s even remotely equal to playing in Buffalo in January.

Brees arm limitations showed up later in his career. Last 2 years especially his arm was shot. His process and absolute mastery of the saints offense carried him for as long as it did.

Tua has arm limitations at play already showing up (maybe hip related?) which could limit his ceiling and will definitely limit it if his process doesn’t catch up.
 
Show me one example where I referenced the size of drew Brees? I’ll wait for it

Gonna be a long wait

Show me one example where I referenced the size of drew Brees? I’ll wait for it

Gonna be a long wait

So no road playoff games since 2014 huh. You sure about that?
"There’s a reason drew Brees road record and results in the playoffs were always a let down. Lack of controlled physical environments that a home dome provides.

Trips to Buffalo in all or nothing games in January eegads"

Ok fine you didn't say size or arm strength. So what ever you were implying about Bree's (pretty much everyone knows it was size/arm strength related) was straight up proven wrong by his numbers in the road playoff games. Brees was still great now his running game and D was not.

Still interested is what physical environments Bree's couldn't had and why? I mean his facts were so bad that when he farted in the wind it distracted his OL from run blocking?

What is these physical environments that Brees couldn't handle in the playoffs and why couldn't he?
 
Concepts is what I do so still shots don’t pass the sniff test
Unless you can come up with any kind of concept where its profitable to send guys out on routes vs twice as many defenders back in coverage, on half your passing plays, you're just babbling at this point...
 
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