Yesterday was a disastrous victory, far worse than any of the prior 3. The ultra elite talent level tends to fall off after pick 4, even in the best draft years. I have seen that broken down all my life. The last thing we needed to do was blow a tank to such extreme we drop outside the top 4. Now we are dependent on other teams making mistakes. Or surrendering our bonus capital, assuming a team above is willing to do so. Lousy scenario either way.
I'm not referring to quarterback exclusively within the top 4. Any position. There are distinct tiers of talent level. Check the 1989 draft for a glaring example of how the talent plunges sharply by tier. Deion Sanders dropped to 5th but that was only because he had Barry Sanders and Derrick Thomas in front of him. Troy Aikman was first. Only the mirage that Tony Mandarich was a freak player shifted the ordering and allowed Sanders to fall to 5th. That's what I mean by now probably needing a mistake above, if let's say we pick 5th.
Obviously there are exceptions. Fan message boards are loaded with posters who scamper to identify the outlier example, as if that means anything at all. Over time and more often that not there is a far greater opportunity to claim an all-time player if you are within those top 1-4 picks. Here is a link below devoted to Hall of Famers since 1977. Note the very distinct and logical tier of 1-4, then another distinct tier at 5-10, another tier at 11-19, and then a drop-off where it basically requires a super sharp general manager to find the exact guy.
There are as many Hall of Famers within the top 4 picks of the first round, than rounds 2, 3 and 4 combined. We needed Grier's task to be an easy as possible. Now we are forcing him to perform above his talent level.
Since the 1977 NFL draft, when it was pared down to 12 rounds, there have been 70 Hall of Famers selected … and three unselected. Of those, a grand total of six have been No. 1 overall picks: Earl Campbell, John Elway, Steve Young (1984 supplemental draft), Bruce Smith, Troy Aikman and Orlando Pace.
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