Unraveling the Mystery of Ryan Tannehill

[defeKt]

We get so many post in this forum about how Tannehill is bad or good or inconsistent. It bothers me because when I watch Tannehill play I generally see the same guy every game, a very good but not elite QB. So I've been looking at his stats to try and figure out if there is some kind of leading indicator to tell us when he is going to play poorly. I looked at all kinds of things but it turns out the answer was very simple. With a non elite QB like Tannehill you really want to manage the number of times he's putting the ball in the air. A perfect example of this is Russell Wilson, super bowl winning QB. The league average number of attempts per game has since 2012 (Wilson and Tannehill's rookie seasons) has been right around 35 attempts per game. Wilson averages 26.53 ATT per game and has a career passer rating of 98. Tannehill is right at the league average of 35 with a career passer rating of 84.4. So is Wilson really that much better? Can Tannehill ever lead a team to the super bowl? Well look what happens when you split Tannehill's stats by attempts.

When Tannehill throws the ball 35 time or more; 40 TD 40 INT 265 Yards per Game and a passer rating of 77.08. Not very good.

However, when Tannehill throws the ball 34 times or less (but at least 10 times to ensure that he played the majority of the game); 36 TD 11 INT 217 Yards per Game and a passer rating of 95.66.

That's not quite as good as Wilson but still excellent and good enough for a 75% win percentage. When he throws the ball 35 times or more our win percentage plummets to 23.3%.

So to me there are no more mysteries, if the Dolphins want to win throw the ball less!

 

[AL R]

Maybe you should send this to Lazor to take a look at. He still insists on passing the ball at a high rate even though the same results have unfolded over and over....

 

[SkapePhin]

There is no mystery. Ryan isn't Brady or Rodgers, he needs a balanced offense to function well. He is best when the running game is working well and the defense can't tee off on our questionable pass protection.

Tannehill tops out at an Eli/Flacco level, IMO, and those kind of guys all need a balanced offense to perform to a winning level.


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[SkapePhin]

As a side note, this is the kind of stuff that Ross/Tannenbaum's much ballyhooed sports analytics department should be doing and sharing with coaches to influence game plans...


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[One Love]

Well done! Excellent point. It will be boring to watch but hey if it's going to give us more Wins...I'm fine with it.

 

[matt11390]

Maybe you should send this to Lazor to take a look at. He still insists on passing the ball at a high rate even though the same results have unfolded over and over....

Perhaps the reason for this is he isn't confident our OL can block well enough especially against good opposing DL's? Those two games we won we ran the ball well and often. I agree that needs to be our formula but I'm not sure we can do that against the teams that stack the box like NE did. They put sometimes 8 people in the box to stop the run and force Tannehill to throw more than we wanted. We saw the results.

 

[AL R]

Perhaps the reason for this is he isn't confident our OL can block well enough especially against good opposing DL's? Those two games we won we ran the ball well and often. I agree that needs to be our formula but I'm not sure we can do that against the teams that stack the box like NE did. They put sometimes 8 people in the box to stop the run and force Tannehill to throw more than we wanted. We saw the results.

These are from Omar but since there stats and not oponion figured would post.

#Dolphins tailback Lamar Miller presently has the NFL's highest yards after contact average (3.7 per carry) in the NFL. L. Bell No. 2 at 3.4
10:08am - 4 Nov 15

#Dolphins tailback Lamar Miller has the 4th highest yard per carry average (5.5) in the NFL of backs who have carried ball 20 or more times.

#Dolphins have the 2nd highest yards per carry average (5.0) in NFL, but keep abandoning the run.

We have seen the results when the QB gets pass happy. I get your point about stacking the box but we abandon the run so often too ealry IMO

 

[hoops]

with our oline issues to date I couldn't agree more with that...limit the exposure and stay ahead of the sticks

2015s formula for sure

 

[j0hnny63]

In games which we're losing, he's throwing the ball more to try to catch up.

I wouldn't read much into this.

 

[hoops]

In games which we're losing, he's throwing the ball more to try to catch up.

I wouldn't read much into this.

that's why the scoreboard and the distance to the sticks is huge...if you chase the scoreboard with suspect pass pro and a result of no running game good luck

millers ypc are misleading though...they don't account for why Miami has abandoned the run in games where we get blown out...we are chasing the scoreboard...and outside of 2 games we haven't had much success running the ball to begin with

 

[SkapePhin]

In games which we're losing, he's throwing the ball more to try to catch up.

I wouldn't read much into this.

But it's a compounding effect... This team isn't built to comeback from behind. Because of its pass pro problems, abandoning the run will only lead to more sacks, pressures, turnovers...


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[hoops]

But it's a compounding effect... This team isn't built to comeback from behind. Because of its pass pro problems, abandoning the run will only lead to more sacks, pressures, turnovers...


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that's true but once you get down 3 tds plan a goes out the window...like Campbell said the world we lived in weeks 1-4 and vs the pats "is not one we can"

 

[DolfanISS]

I just think Tannehill needs good protection, a balanced offense and his WR's to get good separation and catch virtually everything. If he's asked to make plays under non perfect circumstances he pretty much fails almost every time. Yes, there are flash plays but there is no consistency. As someone else said he's not Rodgers, a younger Manning or Brady but he's the best we have. He needs a great team around him to be consistently good. I hate to say it but it may be easier to find a true elite QB than building a great team. FA pickups and the draft are such crapshoots you end up missing on guys just as often as you hit. I really feel like we're going to be stuck in this cycle of mediocrity for a long time.

 

[hoops]

I just think Tannehill needs good protection, a balanced offense and his WR's to get good separation and catch virtually everything. If he's asked to make plays under non perfect circumstances he pretty much fails almost every time. Yes, there are flash plays but there is no consistency. As someone else said he's not Rodgers, a younger Manning or Brady but he's the best we have. He needs a great team around him to be consistently good. I hate to say it but it may be easier to find a true elite QB than building a great team. FA pickups and the draft are such crapshoots you end up missing on guys just as often as you hit. I really feel like we're going to be stuck in this cycle of mediocrity for a long time.

well I completely disagree with that assessment...more than anything else he needs an oline...one that can play solid in both phases...

 

[SkapePhin]

I just think Tannehill needs good protection, a balanced offense and his WR's to get good separation and catch virtually everything. If he's asked to make plays under non perfect circumstances he pretty much fails almost every time. Yes, there are flash plays but there is no consistency. As someone else said he's not Rodgers, a younger Manning or Brady but he's the best we have. He needs a great team around him to be consistently good. I hate to say it but it may be easier to find a true elite QB than building a great team. FA pickups and the draft are such crapshoots you end up missing on guys just as often as you hit. I really feel like we're going to be stuck in this cycle of mediocrity for a long time.

There are only 5 elite QBs in a league with 32 teams and it's been that way for years. It CANNOT be easier to land an elite QB than build a good team around a good QB given those numbers.

Landing an elite QB essentially boils down to dumb luck... You either suck really bad in the right year to get the elite QB, or you kind of just fall into one like the Patriots and Packers did...


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