Interesting question. I've never seen the newer power ratings broken down by component. I've been out of town for 12 years, even though I notice my user name here still indicates Las Vegas and not Miami. I may not be up to date on some changes. But I've heard Jeff Sagarin discuss his model many times going back decades, and I've never heard anything regarding turnovers or anything similar. Sagarin is now in his early 70s. I severely doubt he has recently incorporated anything like that. Here is a summary from 2013. I always respected Sagarin's model because it relies heavily on Bayesian concepts. That's always my fundamental belief, that everything tends to drift back to the beginning. The 2020 Miami Dolphins basically have no chance with me, along those lines. Sorry, but I'm not giving points on the road, or significant points at home, with a team that was picked to win 6 games. I don't care what it looks like now. Bet on sports long enough and that type of thing is ingrained:
The factoring in of margin of error continues to be a debated topic in the NCAA tournament. (Betsy Dupuis/Getty Images) Jeff Sagarin is one of the Godfathers
www.si.com
Here is The Gold Sheet model of power ratings. This is indeed the gold standard. They have been around for longer than anyone, and are still used. The legendary oddsmaker Bob Martin relied on The Gold Sheet. This is the preseason 2020 version. You'll note all the basic categories like points for/point against, home and away, plus straight up record and point spread record, along with over/under results. Also note that home field value is actually closer to 2 than 3 for most teams. That is the far left category. It is a misconception that home field is automatically 3. If you want to be technical it is basically 2.5 on average:
Baseball Products Daily Stat Sheet Football Products Football GoldSheet GoldSheet extra confidential kick-off basketball Products basketball goldsheet
www.goldsheet.com
Again, I think the overriding tendency among sports fans is to try to make the oddsmaking process more complex than it is. Handicappers often use complicated methodology. Handicappers are obsessed with making decisions. But they aren't forced to wager on every single game plus every single over/under plus every single money line and every single prop. Sportsbooks ARE forced to deal with all of the above. That's why by definition it has to be a simple process. Based on foundational math. Assembly line plug and play. When I began working as sports book supervisor in fall 1989 the first thing that shocked me was how few decisions are involved, compared to the other side of the counter as a bettor. Basically we got the numbers from the oddsmaker, then we'd have brief conversation whether to "shade" any of the numbers, then stick them on the board and absorb. Wait to see what happens. Then when we took a high denomination wager we'd have to evaluate whether or not to move the number, based on the identity and reputation of he guy who placed the bet, and also how our number compared to what other sportsbooks were using on the same game.
The Don Best System was brand new at that point. It was a computer screen that allowed us to check all the other prominent sportsbooks and their numbers. A line change would flash in red. Sometimes the entire row would be flashing red, when a line was moving all around town. That was indeed red alert. It was interesting because sometimes we'd see the red alert before anyone wagered at our place. Then we'd have to decide whether to wait for the wager to be made, or to shift the number to what everyone else is now using. That is a wimp strategy called "moving on air." The vast majority of the time we would merely wait. But once in a while it was possible to steal a half point. In other words, let's say a line moved quickly from -4 to -5. Okay, that means they'll play it up to -5. So let's move our -4 up to -4.5 and see if they bite there. If not, we can always move it back to -4, where they definitely will play.
Believe me, that is the type of thing that goes on in sportsbooks, light years beyond handicapping teams regarding personnel or turnovers or anything football related. I hate to say nobody cares but it's basically nobody cares. Once the internet exploded that was a boon for sportsbooks because now they had a bonanza of power ratings to steal. On all sports. It was one of the reasons I moved away. Stuff like golf and tennis and women's basketball became considerably more problematic when all of a sudden the sportsbooks were using actual power ratings to set those numbers, instead of sloppy subjectivity and all the inherent pratfalls of short term overreaction.
I should emphasize that there's a vast difference between power rankings and power ratings. That might be cause of some confusion. Oddsmakers don't care about power rankings at all. That stuff is glorified crap. It is molding subjective impression into a first to last debate. Power ratings are the numerical source of the betting odds. When those oddsmaking sessions are held, each guy will rely on roughly 4-6 sets of power ratings. Some will be consensus among the group. Some will be personal favorites/biases. There is occasional discussion regarding which power rating is faring best in the current season, or with a specific team. That type of thing engages much more lively debate than anything football related.
As I touched on in my first post in this thread, oddsmakers are paranoid about giving away bargains via the same method week after week. That shocked the heck out of me when I was listening to the Stardust Line radio program, and then participating in it. The chief oddsmaker Michael Roxy Roxborough was a co-host. He did a great job because he could blend sports analysis along with the oddsmaker perspective. Terrific wise acre style. Roxy listened to the football commentary but the thing he'd focus on above all was where the money went last week, and whether or not the bettors collected. He'd be irritated and emotional when the same team drew money either for or against several weeks in a row, and the bettors continued to win. Every week he'd fixate on that topic. Only then did I realize that's what oddsmakers obsess about. And it held up once I was in those sessions. All of them and especially the chief oddsmaker will know where the money has been going, whether it's the spread or the money line or the over/under. Consequently when they "shade" a line away from the power rating indications, it won't be because of technical football. It will be in anticipation of money showing up in that direction again. They won't even care if they shaded a line and money wins the other direction. They feel they are protecting the store and the industry when they don't allow you to yawn week after week and win on the same wager without an ounce of thought involved.