Very tough call facing Miami Dolphins as the DeVonta Smith/Ja’Marr Chase debate rages

[Birdmond]

We absolutley have to trade down. Wideouts dont touch the ball enough to warrant a #3 pick unless they are Megatron. Id much rather have the best available of Waddle,Chase, Smith, or Pitts and still get at least another 2nd to move back, than just take my favorite of the bunch at 3. Nobody knows who will ultimately be the best of the group right now, its mostly a crapshoot.

This years draft there are actually several high rated QBs and enough QB needy teams to promote a trade up. You can book it that someone is coming up to 3 for one of those QBs and we should take the best comp we can get as long as the pick stays in the top 10.

My bet would be trading down and drafting Waddle. I also am not fond of drafting either WR at 3.

 

[tay0365]

A warning for Dolphins fans: With any player, there’s a temptation to nitpick as the draft nears. Concerns become magnified; production becomes easier to gloss over.

So get ready to hear two months of discussion about whether Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith, listed by his university as 6-1 and 175 pounds, is less equipped for NFL success than Ja’Marr Chase, who was listed at 6-1 and 200 pounds by LSU before opting out of playing last season. (Chase is now widely listed at 207.)

Former Pro Bowl receiver and current ESPN analyst Keyshawn Johnson, speaking of Smith’s modest size, said “outside of Tyreek Hill and Tyler Lockette, the rest of the dudes are big. We don’t talk about smaller receivers in the National Football League. We’re talking about big dudes. Those are the ones at the top of the charts —- the big guys.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article248867679.html

How many small or light receivers also get the recognition Smith did in college?

How many small or light receivers prove to be as dominant as Smith was?

Could it be that Smith is just special?

What Keyshawn seems to miss is, just because there are not many successful receivers with Smith's body size, does not mean Smith can't succeed or be special.

In the NFL at 6'1, Smith is going to end up putting a bit of muscle, so by 2022 or 2023, Smith at worst will be 6'1 185 to 190, but what Keyshawn fails to talk about is, Chase chose not to take part in College or the Senior bowl this year, and went from 200 to 207. Not only did Chase not show the same love to play football like Smith did this year, but while at home he did not have the same drive to succeed to still workout at home, and stay in shape, instead of allowing himself to gain weight.

There are three things that are for certain when comparing Chase to Smith...

1. Chase is bigger then Smith.

2. Both are extremely talented players.

3. Smith is far more driven, with more heart for the game and to succeed then Chase.

 

[fakespike]

draft Chase at #3
trade up from 18 to top 10 using a 2nd and draft Smith too.

That'd be pretty rad.

 

[Kamelion4291]

I can't help but notice two of your three examples were physical "chimeras" (the mythical Greek definition), and Rice is widely seen as the GOAT.

I understand your point, but it's a huge chasm of a leap to put any of these receiver prospects in such a discussion.

Steve Smith then. Made stiffs like Delhomme look good.

 

[Kamelion4291]

Not to everyone I guess.

Tunnelvision is tough to break through.

Just because someone isn't huge doesn't mean they can't put up bonker numbers.

Is Diggs big? Why do people keep acting like the only way to be worth it as a top 5 WR is if you're a freak? What do you care how Smith gets his stats as long as he does?

He was essentially uncoverable in college in the only conference that consistently plays defense and now his frame is going to hold him back in the NFL?

You can go past people to catch a ball. You don't have to always go over the top. I promise.

 

[Mach2]

Steve Smith then. Made stiffs like Delhomme look good.

That's more realistic for sure. He turned out to be a very reliable player.

I don't remember anyone pounding the table for Smith being a top pick though. He was actually a rd3 selection.

 

[Mach2]

Just because someone isn't huge doesn't mean they can't put up bonker numbers.

Is Diggs big? Why do people keep acting like the only way to be worth it as a top 5 WR is if you're a freak? What do you care how Smith gets his stats as long as he does?

He was essentially uncoverable in college in the only conference that consistently plays defense and now his frame is going to hold him back in the NFL?

You can go past people to catch a ball. You don't have to always go over the top. I promise.

The arguement has been made several times. It's a risk/reward value arguement, with high end physical traits pushing the reward side higher than it would otherwise be.

Like I said before, you may not agree with the philosophy, but it is an historically valid one.

Disagreeing is not the same thing as not understanding.

I don't understand what you dont "understand".....lol

I disagree with a lot of things in life that I understand.

 

[Kebo]

Maybe just me but ain't nobody EVER gonna confuse

stick man

with MEGATRON!

True, doesn’t mean Smith won’t have the better career though.

 

[Kamelion4291]

That's more realistic for sure. He turned out to be a very reliable player.

I don't remember anyone pounding the table for Smith being a top pick though. He was actually a rd3 selection.

Because of his size. People don't make the same mistakes as they did in the past which is why a guy like Kyler Murray goes #1 overall instead of the 3rd round like Wilson did.

People fall because of questions that scouts have. That's it. The more questions, the further down you get. Doesn't mean those questions aren't eventually answered and they turn out to be 1st team All-Pro.

 

[Phinatic8u]

WR at #3 would be a disaster.

Trade down please Miami, then draft the best remaining weapon preferably Pitts.

 

[Kebo]

Devonta Smith 2020 1856 yards
Randy Moss 1997 1820 yards
Davante Adams 2013 1719 yards
Larry Fitzgerald 2003 1672 yards

 

[Mach2]

Because of his size. People don't make the same mistakes as they did in the past which is why a guy like Kyler Murray goes #1 overall instead of the 3rd round like Wilson did.

People fall because of questions that scouts have. That's it. The more questions, the further down you get. Doesn't mean those questions aren't eventually answered and they turn out to be 1st team All-Pro.

It also doesn't make their methods unsound. Statistical methodology can not account for outliers.

Murray was an outlier, an anomaly that as far as I know hasn't won anything substantial yet. He is an incredible athlete, no doubt about it.

Can that model be consistently effective for a decade? IDK, but it hasn't proven to work yet.

I think one big difference between us is that you are more of an eyeball test guy. You know "it" when you see it, and while I agree to an extent, I lean more towards data driven analysis that has no good way of factoring in outliers.

You will never convince me that if you take 10 random guys, 5 are smaller, slower, etc, 5 are bigger faster, etc, that the odds are better with smaller slower.

Obviously things are nowhere near that simple, but logic dictates you have a better chance with bigger, stronger, faster.

 

[Danny]

It also doesn't make their methods unsound. Statistical methodology can not account for outliers.

Murray was an outlier, an anomaly that as far as I know hasn't won anything substantial yet. He is an incredible athlete, no doubt about it.

Can that model be consistently effective for a decade? IDK, but it hasn't proven to work yet.

I think one big difference between us is that you are more of an eyeball test guy. You know "it" when you see it, and while I agree to an extent, I lean more towards data driven analysis that has no good way of factoring in outliers.

You will never convince me that if you take 10 random guys, 5 are smaller, slower, etc, 5 are bigger faster, etc, that the odds are better with smaller slower.

Obviously things are nowhere near that simple, but logic dictates you have a better chance with bigger, stronger, faster.

What logic has to do with anything?......jk.....lol

 

[Mach2]

Devonta Smith 2020 1856 yards
Randy Moss 1997 1820 yards
Davante Adams 2013 1719 yards
Larry Fitzgerald 2003 1672 yards

RG3 2011 4293 yds
Andre Ware 1989 4699 yds
Joe Montana 1978 2010 yds
Tom Brady 1999 2217 yds


What was your point again?
I mean you can cherry pick stats to support almost any agenda. Unless you take thongs in their entirety, .......... Sorry, my mind is wandering..........

 

[mwestberry]

Of course it is a team game and the QB affects the outcome more than any other position; however WRs do move the needle.

Detroit has only had 2, 10 win seasons (one was 11) in the past 25 years and both were when they had Megatron playing.

The impact Moss had on both the Vikings and Patriots could not be overstated. He turned a below average QB into an all-pro (Culpepper) and the Patriots into the most prolific offense all time.

Rice‘s impact on the 49ers winning Super Bowls, Green’s impact on the Bengals repeatedly making the playoffs were significant.

The biggest reason to take a chance on drafting for a possible elite WR is the effect it will have on Tua’s development.

No single player at any position moves the needle like the QB position, but an elite WR can move it as much as a player at any other position.

i see your point ... thanks for the response...

I think you are saying a WR @ 3 would help our team as much or more than a play maker @ any other position? (I assume except QB)

If that's your stance ok ... I think a play maker should be a player with the potential of having more downs played (actually playing every down)
than a player who may or may not get the ball thrown to him ...

I get it ... the off play stuff like decoy ... commands dbl coverage etc. so he would impact the play ... but if Parsons (for example) is as billed he would impact the team every defensive snap ... or Sewell (qb can't throw if he's on his back) ...

Anyway is a WR the BEST choice for our team at @3?