Warming up to Waddle

[NBP81]

I think the reason WR is viewed as a bad value early matters a lot. It has nothing to do with the importance of the position. It's because so many 1st RD WR's don't return value/play up to expectations. If you can mitigate the risk, you draft WR as early as OT without thinking twice.

Imo there's a bucket of WR's who are likely to be at least very good, and then you have a really big bucket of guys with talent but serious concerns - guys who could go either way. Draft from the first bucket whenever you can; draft from the second bucket late on Day 2 or any time Day 3.

Yes and one way to mitigate risk is to go with SEC WRs, Im glad you mentionned that to me a couple of weeks ago. Going back to split the data was eye opening to say the least... *1st round*SEC WRs have ~80% to be good or better compared to 40% for the other prospects.

 

[NBP81]

He’s also a candidate to be underutilized by a tunnel vision oc

I agree with this. Its not that Waddle will NEED a good OC to get his numbers, he'll get em either way... But they absolutely will need a good OC to really squeeze everything from him and translate it to points on the board.

 

[Namor]

this cat is different. If you’re drafting someone in the first round to be tyreek hill, you’re likely over drafting him. There’s no 1:1 comparison.

Going to disagree...Waddle has the speed and talent to be just as good....and..Waddle doesn't have a history of a possible suspension,because he might decide to punch some chick.

 

[Blake the great]

If we can sign Curtis Samuel and draft Waddle or Smith then I would be very happy and excited for this offense.

 

[Mach2]

Well, depending on who the jets take at 2, that 3rd pick could be in high demand. There's no doubt in my mind that we will get offers for that pick. the question is how good will the offers be? If Wilson is still there at 3 I'd think we will get some very good offers from more than one team and we should consider those.

The jests are a wildcard here. They could trade their pick, allowing a team to circumvent us completely.

 

[Kebo]

We shall see.

I hope you are correct. Historically, you don't see what I consider to be meh prospects dominating the top 5 picks. Last year was an anomaly. Beyond TL, I don't see any of them as top prospects. Decent to good, yes. Trade the farm for, no.

Last year there were 3 QBs, widely considered top prospects, yet no tradeups......

Fields is a guy who has enough physical ability to warrant a trade up. If Lawrence and Fields are gone then Wilson and Jones are all that is left. It would then depend how desperate a team is for QB. There are just so many teams in need of a QB that it changes the likelihood of a trade.

Chicago
Carolina
SF
Indianapolis
Washington

 

[Danny]

I don't understand why people have to be so extreme all the time. When people say we need to go offense first it doesn't mean we think we have a perfect defense. When people say we need a playmaker at 3 instead of O-line it doesn't mean we think the O-line is perfect. You can only draft one player at a time so you need to have some priorities. You also need to look at combinations. Do you want the best OT along with the 4th WR? Or do you want the top WR along with the 3rd OT?

It goes on and on but people need to stop thinking is always either or. Not wanting Sewell at 3 doesn't mean I don't like Sewell. It only means I'd prefer a playmakers there.

 

[Danny]

The jests are a wildcard here. They could trade their pick, allowing a team to circumvent us completely.

I agree they hold the key depending on who they take or like you said, if they were to trade down which I don't think they will as they already have plenty of picks for the next two drafts. I think they will take their guy, whoever that is at 2.

 

[Kebo]

Jets almost have to take a QB.

 

[ONole1]

Fields is a guy who has enough physical ability to warrant a trade up. If Lawrence and Fields are gone then Wilson and Jones are all that is left. It would then depend how desperate a team is for QB. There are just so many teams in need of a QB that it changes the likelihood of a trade.

Chicago
Carolina
SF
Indianapolis
Washington

I was listening to PFF yesterday morning on XM and they were talking about Carolina trading up with Miami to draft Trey Lance. I have heard many people say outside of Lawrence he has the highest ceiling of all the QB's in this draft and that he would be a good fit for what Rhule wants to do there. That he could sit a year and learn behind Bridgewater and take over late in the year or next year.

 

[NYFINest]

Fields is a guy who has enough physical ability to warrant a trade up. If Lawrence and Fields are gone then Wilson and Jones are all that is left. It would then depend how desperate a team is for QB. There are just so many teams in need of a QB that it changes the likelihood of a trade.

Chicago
Carolina
SF
Indianapolis
Washington

Yeah I'm curious to see if the Jets take a QB and there's only one of Wilson/Fields left there at 3, if any of these teams are desperate enough for a QB to get into a bidding war for that pick.

Even with that crazy QB frenzy this off-season, some of those teams you mentioned will still be looking for a QB come draft time

Also wouldn't shock me one bit if Atlanta at 4 was considering one as well. Don't rule them out offering something to move up one spot to get Fields for example, just to make sure we don't make a trade with a team looking to jump them.

 

[Mach2]

Fields is a guy who has enough physical ability to warrant a trade up. If Lawrence and Fields are gone then Wilson and Jones are all that is left. It would then depend how desperate a team is for QB. There are just so many teams in need of a QB that it changes the likelihood of a trade.

Chicago
Carolina
SF
Indianapolis
Washington

There are also a boatload of FA QBs that teams can get, should they not "love" the second tier prospects.

I'm just trying to take a realistic view. We have no idea what our own team is thinking, let alone other teams. I'm not going to project things a certain way, just because that happens to benifit the Dolphins.

 

[Kamelion4291]

That's not it at all. I believe in "value" with top picks, aside from the QB position.

WR at 3 is not a good value, historically. I'm not going to bother breaking down draft history again, as it has been done by myself, and others, multiple times.

If you believe Smith, Chase or whoever is a can't miss, perennial pro bowler, that's fine. I don't believe there is any such thing at any position. Some positions are just more likely than others.

If there were a J. Jones, or Megatron type wideout in the draft, I may feel differently.

There isn't. I know physical traits aren't everything, but they make a difference when evaluating how high to select a player, IMO.

I get it, but what you're doing is throwing individual player evaluation to the wind and just looking at position only, then selecting the best player at that particular position. To me this sounds like the lazy way out honestly because you're not evaluating the cream of the crop across positions.

You also mention that you would only maybe deviate when there is a "Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones", which obviously counters your earlier suggestion that there's no can't miss, perennial Pro Bowler because even saying that suggests that you do believe that there is otherwise you wouldn't entertain a receiver at 3 no matter who it was purely based on your philosophy.

 

[NYFINest]

I was listening to PFF yesterday morning on XM and they were talking about Carolina trading up with Miami to draft Trey Lance. I have heard many people say outside of Lawrence he has the highest ceiling of all the QB's in this draft and that he would be a good fit for what Rhule wants to do there. That he could sit a year and learn behind Bridgewater and take over late in the year or next year.

They are probably my ideal partner. Pretty much guarantees that one of Smith/Waddle/Chase/Pitts is still there and we get significant draft capital in the process

 

[NYFINest]

There are also a boatload of FA QBs that teams can get, should they not "love" the second tier prospects.

I'm just trying to take a realistic view. We have no idea what our own team is thinking, let alone other teams. I'm not going to project things a certain way, just because that happens to benifit the Dolphins.

Yeah that's true...Hopefully at least one team falls in love with a QB that's still there at 3 like the Giants did with Jones. That's all it takes