Warming up to Waddle

[Kebo]

There are also a boatload of FA QBs that teams can get, should they not "love" the second tier prospects.

I'm just trying to take a realistic view. We have no idea what our own team is thinking, let alone other teams. I'm not going to project things a certain way, just because that happens to benifit the Dolphins.

Other than Dak and Winston there aren’t any serious FA QB options.

 

[NYFINest]

Other than Dak and Winston there aren’t any serious FA QB options.

Yeah and I don't see Dak going anywhere, he's getting tagged again if they don't sign long-term deal.

Options are pretty limited unless teams are willing to settle for guys like Winston, Dalton or Fitz if he decides he still wants to play

 

[Mach2]

I get it, but what you're doing is throwing individual player evaluation to the wind and just looking at position only, then selecting the best player at that particular position. To me this sounds like the lazy way out honestly because you're not evaluating the cream of the crop across positions.

You also mention that you would only maybe deviate when there is a "Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones", which obviously counters your earlier suggestion that there's no can't miss, perennial Pro Bowler because even saying that suggests that you do believe that there is otherwise you wouldn't entertain a receiver at 3 no matter who it was purely based on your philosophy.

As to the first part, it isn't lazy. It's philosophy. In my philosophy, yes, individual player evals are secondary because there is no way to directly compare widely disparate positions.

As to the second, there are always exceptions to anything. To believe otherwise is irrational, IMO.

 

[Mach2]

Other than Dak and Winston there aren’t any serious FA QB options.

That's more opinion than reality. I don't rate either of them as my top choices, and don't rate Winston period.

 

[Kamelion4291]

Yes and one way to mitigate risk is to go with SEC WRs, Im glad you mentionned that to me a couple of weeks ago. Going back to split the data was eye opening to say the least... SEC WRs have ~80% to be good or better compared to 40% for the other prospects.

That's not surprising. A lot of the failure in 1st round WRs historically is that a lot of their production has a projection caveat in that they weren't going against good corners or defenses. It's not hard to pile up stats against people that can't cover and the need to be a great route runner just isn't there because they haven't gotten to a point where they need to min/max their ability to play well.

It's why Smith is so tantalizing because he dominated game in and game out against the best and in the biggest games. There's so little risk associated with his production in the NFL based off of it.

 

[Kamelion4291]

As to the first part, it isn't lazy. It's philosophy. In my philosophy, yes, individual player evals are secondary because there is no way to directly compare widely disparate positions.

As to the second, there are always exceptions to anything. To believe otherwise is irrational, IMO.

I think it's lazy in the sense that you ignore it when having a discussion on a message board and claim that it's your philosophy, but I also know that you don't actually believe it subconsciously because there's a reason why you wouldn't honestly consider taking a Justin Fields at #3 in an argument on "value" because you already know that he's worse at QB than Sewell and Smith are at their respective positions. You're already comparing them across positions.

 

[Mach2]

I think it's lazy in the sense that you ignore it when having a discussion on a message board and claim that it's your philosophy, but I also know that you don't actually believe it subconsciously because there's a reason why you wouldn't honestly consider taking a Justin Fields at #3 in an argument on "value" because you already know that he's worse at QB than Sewell and Smith are at their respective positions. You're already comparing them across positions.

I have already stated in several posts that QBs are an entirely different situation than other positions.

You think its lazy.......whatever.

I think it's having a closed mind to believe there is only one possible path here.

No need for either of us to keep reiterating the same opinion.

 

[Kamelion4291]

I have already stated in several posts that QBs are an entirely different situation than other positions.

You think its lazy.......whatever.

I think it's having a closed mind to believe there is only one possible path here.

No need for either of us to keep reiterating the same opinion.

I know that there are other paths and there isn't just one valid one. I wouldn't scream from the rooftops if we took Sewell, I just think that "WR at #3 bad" is a strange argument FOR Sewell is all.

But you are correct. Let's move on.

 

[Danny]

That's not surprising. A lot of the failure in 1st round WRs historically is that a lot of their production has a projection caveat in that they weren't going against good corners or defenses. It's not hard to pile up stats against people that can't cover and the need to be a great route runner just isn't there because they haven't gotten to a point where they need to min/max their ability to play well.

It's why Smith is so tantalizing because he dominated game in and game out against the best and in the biggest games. There's so little risk associated with his production in the NFL based off of it.

Not only that but this guy is not a primadona. This is a kid that's wants to to work and loves football. Even with his injured hand he was at the senior bowl cause he cares. He also has a great attitude. Yes a lot of first round WR's don't get to be as good as their draft spot but I don't believe Smith is one of those guys.

 

[Mach2]

Not only that but this guy is not a primadona. This is a kid that's wants to to work and loves football. Even with his injured hand he was at the senior bowl cause he cares. He also has a great attitude. Yes a lot of first round WR's don't get to be as good as their draft spot but I don't believe Smith is one of those guys.

So you have zero concerns about his frame and durability at the next level?

I know you can point to outliers that have been sucessful, but it is obviously not the norm.

 

[The Goat]

If Miami trades back from 3 to pick up more draft capital, I’d love Waddle somewhere in the top half of the first. That’s actually my preferred strategy.

There’s a LOT of WR depth in this draft; someone like Ihmir Smith-Marsette in the later rounds to add to the corps would be awesome.

 

[The Goat]

All that being said, I wouldn’t be angry with Smith at 3. He’s a special player.

 

[Danny]

So you have zero concerns about his frame and durability at the next level?

I know you can point to outliers that have been sucessful, but it is obviously not the norm.

The way I see it, every single player is one play away from getting hurt so no, I'm not going to worry about it. Btw, I'd take Smith with our top pick and if we want an OT then I'd look at Teven Jenkins in the 2nd round. The ideal would be to trade down to 6 with Philly and take Smith there but again, trading down is not as easy as some people might think so we'll see what happens.

 

[bostondolphin]

They are probably my ideal partner. Pretty much guarantees that one of Smith/Waddle/Chase/Pitts is still there and we get significant draft capital in the process

Scratching Pitts from that list (just because I think WR has to be priority), I also like a Carolina trade but there is certainly risk right? I think Cinci drafts Sewell if he gets to 5, but couldn't Atlanta, Philly and Detroit all scoop up WR's? The last thing Miami would want to do is make a smart trade down and then have it bite them in the ass. Wherever they drop to, I think they have to ensure one of those 3 WR's.

And obviously, if Miami loves one WR above all else, then they have to stand pat and pick him. I would just be surprised if they thought one of those guys was so certainly better than the other two that it's worth passing up on a future 1st or maybe a 2nd this year, or whatever.

 

[NYFINest]

Scratching Pitts from that list (just because I think WR has to be priority), I also like a Carolina trade but there is certainly risk right? I think Cinci drafts Sewell if he gets to 5, but couldn't Atlanta, Philly and Detroit all scoop up WR's? The last thing Miami would want to do is make a smart trade down and then have it bite them in the ***. Wherever they drop to, I think they have to ensure one of those 3 WR's.

And obviously, if Miami loves one WR above all else, then they have to stand pat and pick him. I would just be surprised if they thought one of those guys was so certainly better than the other two that it's worth passing up on a future 1st or maybe a 2nd this year, or whatever.

Yeah I agree there's always a risk with any trade down, but realistically the odds are one of those guys is still there at 8.

But I agree, you have to consider the risk before making a trade like that.

I also remember last year all these mocks had receivers going very early and I don't think I saw a single mock where Cedee Lamb went that late.
I think skilled positions always generate more hype for these types of things but in reality a lot more teams end up going with players that fill a bigger need/demand like o-line and pass rusher