I am just gonna quote this post for an overall greater point.
The first overall pick has been vastly overrated on this site.
Mahomes
Watson
Wilson
Brady
Brees
Rogers
6 best QBs in the NFL, all 6 could of been had with Miami with 10th overall or lower.
Have conviction on a guy first and foremost. Dicking around with Tannehill, should of made a move more Deshaun Watson.
Not having the first overall should not be a decade long death sentence, that narrative is just crazy talk. Most important thing in 2019 is not "tanking", its current roster player/coaching development.
Tua ain't saving this team if the surrounding group doesn't get better.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: 28% of Super Bowls have been won by the #1 overall QB pick. You can't make a decision based on outliers or "lucky" picks/free agent signings.
Mahomes I didn't follow in college so I have no idea what was being said about him and why he dropped as far as he did, but I'd imagine playing in that trash conference that doesn't play any defense had something to do with it.
Watson I thought was the best QB in that draft (see Mahomes above) so there's an example of miscalculation by NFL GMs, but none of these not-Tua QBs in the draft look like a Watson caliber steal, although Burrow is climbing.
Wilson was drafted that low because of his height. That isn't a thing anymore so if a Wilson was in the upcoming draft, you're not finding him in the middle rounds anymore since the word is out. He was a complete baller in college.
The Patriots got lucky and everybody knows it.
Brees wasn't that great in college, wasn't that great his first few years, and then all of a sudden blossomed into a beast. That is beyond rare and the pure definition of the word "lucky".
Rodgers is another guy who barely did much in college (2500 yards his junior year that he was drafted) which is why he was passed on by all those teams. 2500 yards to possibly one of the greatest QBs of all-time? I'd call that lucky as well.
While it certainly isn't some death sentence to not get Tua, the fall back plan essentially becomes, "Welp, we have to hope to get lucky now." I don't want to be in that position. I get it, QB evaluation is really hard and I agree with you... we shouldn't have sat there wasting year after year with Tannehill hoping he turns into that guy and we could have had Watson.
If we don't end up with Tua, I'd make my own luck and I'd prioritize QB more than we ever have before and draft one every single year until we hit. Maybe Burrow (don't like how bad Herbert is vs pressure) and then if he hadn't shown glimpses despite starting all season (with a revamped offensive line obviously), then I'd draft another one next year in the first. I'm going to hit eventually and since tons of first round picks bust anyway (see Parker, Minkah, Harris etc), I wouldn't feel guilty about doing so.