We wont have to trade up to land our QB, and here’s why | Page 3 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

We wont have to trade up to land our QB, and here’s why

Kyndig said:
All things are possible, but I think the Lions staff will get fired if they don’t post a winning season next year, so why would they draft a rookie QB when their best chance of staying employed is to roll with Matthew Stanford and draft a player who can help them win now, or get fired next year with a rookie QB? There probably isn’;t a better FA QB on the market who is better than Stafford?

Redskins highly unlikely. All things are possible, but If our guys are playing poker, I hope they bet a ton of money that the redskins and lions would be bluffing. Even still, there are 3 bluechip QB prospects who could be drafted in picks 2-5 which means we have a ridiculously high chance of getting one of them by simply staying put, even if the Redskins foolishly drafted one instead of the best non QB player in the draft, but you never know I suppose...
Click to expand...
The Lions staff will get fired whether they draft a QB or not. They are a bad football team and it is going to take more than one draft to fix all the problems on that team. I have no idea if they will take a QB or not in the 2020 draft but I do think they will have a very good chance of having the first pick in the 2021 draft and it is then that the new GM and HC will be happy to trade Stafford and select Lawrence as their future QB.
 
elite14eva said:
We've played it safe long enough we might have to go get our guy even if it means trading up
Click to expand...
Tua is the GUY for many on this forum but that doesn’t mean he is the GUY for Grier and Flores. Because of his numerous injuries over the past two years the Dolphins just might prefer Herbert or Love and if they do, there really is no reason for them to move up from 5 to draft one of those QB’s. Because I think Herbert and Love will still be on the board when the Dolphins draft at 5.
 
Kyndig said:
My thoughts are that the injury to Tua changes things regarding risk and that based on all the reasons I pointed out, there is a good chance he will be available to us without trading. Second points are that Justin Herbert may be higher regarded as a prospect by NFL front offices than on this board as well as Jordan Love, and in fact, the assumptions being made that I was trying to debunk are exactly the one you are making. However, it’s only an opinion, so maybe u will end up being right, but if this is a game of poker, then I think we can get a fine prospect without trading our chips away for one, especially if that one has demonstrated a durability risk going all the way back to high school.
Click to expand...
First of all, Tua is too good a prospect and his medical reports are too positive to believe some team won't be willing to jump Miami knowing Miami's need at the position. I also don't understand the logic of letting other teams dictate who you would be stuck with. This front office better have a conviction on one of these guys, but that's what scares me. If they stay where they are and are stuck with who ever they take, they are going to say that's exactly what they wanted all along and how they played the draft perfectly. I just won't buy it.
 
Kyndig said:
Assumptions, smoke screens, skullduggery, and nincompoopery are common this time of year. It’s the draft baby!

1st Assumption: A super talented QB with durability questions long term is someone that everyone is going to trade the farm for to jump in front of us to pick.

Not certain about that. I think that it’s possible that Herbert And Love without trading up and spending valuable draft resources/capital are better options for most teams, (including us) than trading up for Tua. Or, I’m cool with drafting Tua, if he falls to us without having to trade for him if the coaching staff thinks he’s the best available player/QB.

How many teams are a threat to trade in front of us, or take a QB before us?

Washington Redskins. Doesn’t make sense to give up on Dwayne Haskins yet. Their best option is to draft highest rated prospect on their board, which is probably Chase Young, and ride with Haskins for a full year at the helm. Either Haskins will show progress and instill confidence that he could be the guy, our he will implode, and the redskins will be in position to draft a QB 1 next year when Trevor Lawrence and others are coming out. % they draft a QB? Far more unlikely than likely. %chance someone trades for their pick to jump in front of them? Also low, the Lions and Giants picks can be had for a cheaper price, no need to jump in front of the Lions.

Lions. Management is under the gun to win immediately. Their best chance of winning is for Matthew Stanford to come back and for them to set him up with players who can help them win now. They need to either trade back and acquire more picks, or draft the best player available on their board who can help them win now Or they may be unemployed next year, and that stands for both Patricia and their GM.

New York Giants. Daniel Jones is their guy. They don’t need to draft a QB, they have many other holes they have to address here. They will either trade down, or draft the BPA.

So, who does that leave who is a threat to trade ahead of us?

San Diego Chargers. They draft behind us. They could trade up to 3 or 4 if they feel that strongly about Herbert. Doubt they would trade that far up for Tua who has the Durability risk when they can stay put and draft either Tua, Herbert, or Love (Whoever’s left) without trading any draft capital. This is because of an analysis of the following teams who need QB’s potentially badly enough to trade up:

Carolina Panthers. A possibility, but based on what I’ve heard, it is more likely that they roll with Cam Newton this year. Seems like they may be confident in him coming back from his injuries. Now, this could change, but there is a very realistic chance they stay put and draft one of the top QB prospects if they fall to them, or they could draft an incredible player if Bengals, Dolphins, & Chargers all draft QB’s in front of them, then they are left with a very impressive group of talented non QB Players. I believe they will roll with Cam next year And maybe draft a QB later, or sign a Free agent like Teddy Bridgewater or someone else to back up Cam Newton. Besides, at this point it is highly likely that either Love or Tua will be available, so someone can either trade up here or select one of them whoever is available without spending the draft capital to trade in front of us, including the Panthers.

Jaguars. A young prospect will come in handy, but with Foles contract and Minshew in the fold, I doubt it makes sense for them to pay the price it will take to move up ahead of the Dolphins to draft Herbert, or a Durability risk QB, or Jordan Love. I think they have to go one more year with Foles/Minshew and deal with a new QB later in the draft or next year.

Raiders. At this point the cost starts to get prohibitive to jump from 12 to 3 or 4, I.e. in front of us, and the Raiders still have Carr, not sure how they feel about him, they could trade him, not sure what they would get for him, they could go after Tom Brady, or another veteran to compete with Carr, Gruden historically doesn’t like rookie QB’s. but you never know.

Colts. They are built to win now. They will likely go Free agent route with Philip Rivers looking like a solid fit there, possibly even Brady. Unlikely to trade up for a rookie QB and pay the price that it would take from the 13th pick, but you never know.

Broncos. They are desperate for a QB. Elway has failed so much with his rookie QB’s I believe he would rather go the free agent route, but you never know if there is a prospect that he feels so strongly about that he would mortgage the next 2 drafts to move up from 15 to 3 (in front of us is all I’m concerned with) to draft.

Again, this is just analysis based on what information is out there, not pretending to know anything or have inside knowledge, just looking at each team’s situation and applying logic that seems reasonable to me. But, the draft is unpredictable, so we’ll see how it shakes out, but I don’t think we need to trade valuable assets that we traded good players for to get one of the top 4 QB prospects in this draft, and I think Tua still is promising but risky and unnecessary to trade valuable draft assets to select if we want him, and Herbert and Love might be more highly regarded amongst the teams picking than the rest of us think and that Tua’s durability risk makes is less likely that a team will trade too much for him, but you never know.
Click to expand...

I would take the Broncos off your list. Elway has already stated that he plans to build the offense around Drew Lock. If Lock fails to turn into the QB Elway thinks he can be, they might be looking to draft a QB in a couple of years but I don’t see them having much interest in drafting a QB in the early rounds this year. The rest of the teams you listed certainly are presently in need of a solid starter in 2020 but I think some of those teams will try and find their new starter in free agency rather than through the draft.

The Chargers are the most likely team to try and jump the a Dolphins IMO but the Dolphins have too many draft resources to let that happen if they really want to move up. I prefer they stay at 5 and draft a QB at that position but if they are sold on Tua, Herbert, or Love and think that another team will move ahead of them to select their desired QB, I guess they will do what is necessary to prevent that from happening.
 
rickd13 said:
First of all, Tua is too good a prospect and his medical reports are too positive to believe some team won't be willing to jump Miami knowing Miami's need at the position. I also don't understand the logic of letting other teams dictate who you would be stuck with. This front office better have a conviction on one of these guys, but that's what scares me. If they stay where they are and are stuck with who ever they take, they are going to say that's exactly what they wanted all along and how they played the draft perfectly. I just won't buy it.
Click to expand...

Two things;

1. Without the medical risk I would agree with you, but it is a factor And Herbert may be higher regarded as a prospect than you think.

2. I listed every team that would have reason to potentially jump in front of us and why I didn’t think they would. One reason being that this free agent QB class is the best there has ever been. So my question to you is Who will jump in front of us because they think an injured Tua is that much better of a prospect than Justin Herbert and why?
 
rickd13 said:
First of all, Tua is too good a prospect and his medical reports are too positive to believe some team won't be willing to jump Miami knowing Miami's need at the position. I also don't understand the logic of letting other teams dictate who you would be stuck with. This front office better have a conviction on one of these guys, but that's what scares me. If they stay where they are and are stuck with who ever they take, they are going to say that's exactly what they wanted all along and how they played the draft perfectly. I just won't buy it.
Click to expand...
Perhaps they do have a conviction on who they want to draft at the QB position. It just might be that they aren’t convinced that a Tua is their guy and therefore they feel comfortable staying at 5 and drafting the QB they want because they believe he will still be on the board.
Just because you won’t buy it if they don’t get Tua doesn’t mean the QB they do draft wasn’t who they wanted all along. The fact is that if they want Tua they have the draft resources to get him. If instead they choose to remain at 5 and Tua is selected before then, it simply means the a Dolphins didn’t have enough confidence in his ability to avoid injuries in the NFL so they went in another direction.
 
Much will depend on FA and players pro days. Right now I see the Raiders as the biggest threat to trade into the top 3. I think it’s well known Gruden isn’t sold on Carr and they have good draft capital.
 
Avigatorx said:
I'm not comfortable hinging the Dolphins future at QB upon speculation of what numerous teams may or may not do. If we like a guy, we need to go get him.

Also, youre missing some teams, like the Bucs, The Bears, The Titans, or even the Pats.

Ill gamble with other positions, but when it comes to QB I'm buying the pot.
Click to expand...

Pats don’t have the ammo, draft way to far back, Titans will likely bring back Tannehill, Bears would be more likely to bring in a free agent veteran, they are built to win now, and I think the Bucs will bring in a free agent as well, although they could trade up I suppose. Regarding the Bucs, Arians is too old to start all over again with another rookie, especially one like Tua who would have to red shirt for his first year anyways.
 
1972forever said:
Tua is the GUY for many on this forum but that doesn’t mean he is the GUY for Grier and Flores. Because of his numerous injuries over the past two years the Dolphins just might prefer Herbert or Love and if they do, there really is no reason for them to move up from 5 to draft one of those QB’s. Because I think Herbert and Love will still be on the board when the Dolphins draft at 5.
Click to expand...
His durability issues actually go all the way back to high school.
 
Kyndig said:
Two things;

1. Without the medical risk I would agree with you, but it is a factor And Herbert may be higher regarded as a prospect than you think.

2. I listed every team that would have reason to potentially jump in front of us and why I didn’t think they would. One reason being that this free agent QB class is the best there has ever been. So my question to you is Who will jump in front of us because they think an injured Tua is that much better of a prospect than Justin Herbert and why?
Click to expand...
Just about any front office with a brain in their head would think Tua is a better prospect, because he is. The whole point is, no one knows what any team is thinking, so why leave it to chance? Have a conviction on a guy and make it happen. I don't care what name you use for "the guy". If that's who they want, they should move up to as high as they can to take that guy. Now, I will tell you that if they moved up for anyone other than Tua I won't like it because I believe he is the best QB prospect in the draft, but if this front office has a strong conviction that someone else is better, they better be doing whatever they can to make sure that's the guy they end up with because in the end their career's depend on it.
 
We can have 15 first round picks. If you don't get the "right" qb it does not matter. Maybe it's Tua, maybe its Herbert. The bottom line is that front office makes millions to make that call. We are reading and posting from our kitchens or our jobs.
The scary thing is that most QBs every draft are not what they are expected to be. I remember reading somewhere that GMs miss on 50% of the first round picks!!!! 50 freaking percent. Misses on QBs is even higher.

If they get this right we will be set for a LONG time. If they get it wrong we will be looking at alot more 8-8 seasons with occasional 9-7 or 7-9.

No pressure Grier and company!!!!!!!!
 
1972forever said:
Perhaps they do have a conviction on who they want to draft at the QB position. It just might be that they aren’t convinced that a Tua is their guy and therefore they feel comfortable staying at 5 and drafting the QB they want because they believe he will still be on the board.
Just because you won’t buy it if they don’t get Tua doesn’t mean the QB they do draft wasn’t who they wanted all along. The fact is that if they want Tua they have the draft resources to get him. If instead they choose to remain at 5 and Tua is selected before then, it simply means the a Dolphins didn’t have enough confidence in his ability to avoid injuries in the NFL so they went in another direction.
Click to expand...
How can you be sure of what the teams ahead of you are going to do? How do you know what the teams behind you are willing to do to get ahead of you? Sure you can gamble, but you damned well could come out of this thing looking really stupid.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom