We wont have to trade up to land our QB, and here’s why

[fansinceGWilson]

1. I wonder how emotional the GM's and talent evaluators get about these prospects; as fans, we have yearned for a QB for so long, watched Tua play all fall till the injury and drool over him. Do these NFL guys just set aside their emotions(to some degree, at least) and just check the boxes on a prospect, rate their traits, and go into the draft with a list and a ranking, or do they get like us fans and totally pine for certain guys? I'd love to know what is going on in Grier's head right now about these prospects. Although I bet he is so busy qualifying and quantifying at this point he hasn't fallen in love with any one yet; or at least if he has, he is still being open to other options in case things come apart.
2. I would like to see more smoke screening from Miami. I know there have been some reports that they like Herbert, but I would like to see more contradictory reports coming out, one day after the next, just an absolute barrage of information and misinformation on a daily basis. I would like to see reports that they love Derrick Brown at five and that they are eyeing a day 2 prospect at QB. I would like them to say that they are open to trading down. All of that. Let NO ONE have any idea what we are up to. Doesn't matter whether people believe it or not. Just start throwing s*** at the wall, it doesn't matter what sticks. Teams should have so many out there reports from our camp that they should expect anything. This is our year to own the draft- 5 picks in the first three rounds, tell me the last time that happened with a team. Not often. All eyes should be on us, and we should be misdirecting EVERY DAMN DAY.

Insightful.

 

[The Ghost]

Did you watch the difference between Rosen starting and Fitzpatrick starting? A one player difference?

I did. the offense moved the ball very efficiently against Dallas and LAC after not being able to do squat against Baltimore and New England.

outside of 50/50 balls to Parker, Fitzpatrick was nothing more than experienced enough to play under chaotic situations better than Rosen.

people act like Rosen only played the Washington game and that it was his fault he was under duress almost immediately after taking the snap.

Rosen played very against Dallas and LAC, all things considered.

“All things considered” apparently not worth considering.

Miami could’ve beat Dallas if not for Drake’s fumble and Preston’s dropped TD, as well as Parker’s big drop.

 

[Kyndig]

All you guys have to say is "I don't like Tua!" And stop trying to disguise it as draft strategy.

But ultimately, the name of the guy isn't as important as identifying one and securing him.

Trying to get cute will just get you burned.

So much thoughtful analysis put forward and this is what you take from it?

Point I'm trying to make is that sure, Tua is a good prospect. I like him and would be fine drafting him. However, i think it would be a mistake to trade valuable draft assets that we traded away good players for to take him because of his durability risk when the truth of the matter is, I also think the ceilings of Herbert and Love are potentially quite high, and I'm not sure that our front office hasn't also come to what seems like the same reasonable conclusion and that any of those 3 QBs would be promising and one of them will absolutely be available to us if we simply stay put.

Also, that there are so many assumptions that if you dig deep and consider each team who needs a QB's situations behind us, it looks less likely that there will be too many of them who think they need to jump up to 3 to grab a QB, either Herbert, or Tua, especially when there are also some very good free agent options available this year and some of those teams (Bears, Colts, for example) are built to win now.

It's not an anti-tua thread at all, I'd be fine if we drafted him, I just think it's going to be unnecessary to trade up to get him and I would also be happy with the potential of Herbert or Love, both of whom seem to have high ceilings and all the tools necessary for good coaching to unlock their potential.

 

[Kyndig]

Then be ready for a lot of mediocre seasons. Until you have a real QB, whoever that may be, we will continue this 20 year trend.

If Tua will be amazing will you regret giving up 2 picks to get him???

We will probably have to move up for Herbert at this point. Giants will trade with Chargers and they will jump us for Herbert. You can bet on that right now.

If Herbert is great is he worth a pick or 2 to move up???

If getting the most important position solidified for the next 15+years means trading away 2 picks that might amount to nothing anyway, it is a NOBRAINER!!!!!

If we are jumped for Herbert, then we will very likely (very high %) have Tua available to us without having to trade anything right there at 5. Both are very good prospects and I am fine with either. Tua is probably closer to his ceiling, so he is better now. He has an it factor, but also durability risk. Herbert has all the tools you want, and it's possible that the coaching at Oregon wasn't that great compared to what he'll get in the NFL and many teams figure they can fix him. He also has some technique issues that can be coached up that effect his accuracy. He is a very good prospect and probably isn't near his ceiling yet which is probably pretty high. You can say the same thing about Love by the way, who is probably the lesser of the 3 prospects, but also still with a potentially high season. 2 seasons ago he looked absolutely amazing, last season he was undermanned in terms of his offensive weapons.

My point is these NFL front offices are considering all of these things and due to Tua's durability concerns, might not be so eager to part with valuable draft assets to trade up and get him because there are two other very good prospects also available. Now, if Tua hadn't gotten injured, then I would agree, we would have to trade up to 2 or 3 to get him, but he did get injured.

I could be wrong, but logically, I feel that I have a higher betting % of being right because of all of the reasons I stated.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

So much thoughtful analysis put forward and this is what you take from it?

Point I'm trying to make is that sure, Tua is a good prospect. I like him and would be fine drafting him. However, i think it would be a mistake to trade valuable draft assets that we traded away good players for to take him because of his durability risk when the truth of the matter is, I also think the ceilings of Herbert and Love are potentially quite high, and I'm not sure that our front office hasn't also come to what seems like the same reasonable conclusion and that any of those 3 QBs would be promising and one of them will absolutely be available to us if we simply stay put.

Also, that there are so many assumptions that if you dig deep and consider each team who needs a QB's situations behind us, it looks less likely that there will be too many of them who think they need to jump up to 3 to grab a QB, either Herbert, or Tua, especially when there are also some very good free agent options available this year and some of those teams (Bears, Colts, for example) are built to win now.

It's not an anti-tua thread at all, I'd be fine if we drafted him, I just think it's going to be unnecessary to trade up to get him and I would also be happy with the potential of Herbert or Love, both of whom seem to have high ceilings and all the tools necessary for good coaching to unlock their potential.

You obviously have trouble with concepts. Let me help. Here are you're choices . . .
1) 'I LOVE TUA!! He's a generational talent!! The only option is 'all-in''
2) You're a Tua hater. There is no middle ground.

Those of us who Like Tua, but have questions? we're in group 2
BTW, that's sarcasm

 

[Kamelion4291]

I did. the offense moved the ball very efficiently against Dallas and LAC after not being able to do squat against Baltimore and New England.

outside of 50/50 balls to Parker, Fitzpatrick was nothing more than experienced enough to play under chaotic situations better than Rosen.

people act like Rosen only played the Washington game and that it was his fault he was under duress almost immediately after taking the snap.

Rosen played very against Dallas and LAC, all things considered.

“All things considered” apparently not worth considering.

Miami could’ve beat Dallas if not for Drake’s fumble and Preston’s dropped TD, as well as Parker’s big drop.

"If the one good throw Rosen had wasn't dropped, he would have scored a TD!!!!i!i!!"

And no, I don't worry about "all things considered" because that's just a phrase that denotes excuses. Fitzpatrick had to deal with the same garbage as he was the most hit QB in the league, but he actually made plays consistently. He didn't make only ONE good throw that ended up being dropped. He made many good throws and that's how we ended up scoring points.

Your standards for "very good" are honestly pretty low.

 

[Locke]

If there is any kind of medical setback Tua is not getting drafted in the first round.

Saying this over and over again won’t make it true.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Saying this over and over again won’t make it true.

And saying THAT over and over doesn't mean it can't happen.

 

[Kamelion4291]

And saying THAT over and over doesn't mean it can't happen.

While we're at it, let's discuss other things that can possibly happen because that's really useful on a message board.

Hey, guys. We should draft Fromm at 5. Dude's a total winner so we could definitely go 16-0 this upcoming season.

Bengals could trade the #1 pick for Tom Brady.

We could give up every pick we have to take Jalen Hurts.

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Ray R]

I'm not comfortable hinging the Dolphins future at QB upon speculation of what numerous teams may or may not do. If we like a guy, we need to go get him.

Also, youre missing some teams, like the Bucs, The Bears, The Titans, or even the Pats.

Ill gamble with other positions, but when it comes to QB I'm buying the pot.

Desperation doesn't negate the FACT that any draftee is a gamble!

 

[The Ghost]

"If the one good throw Rosen had wasn't dropped, he would have scored a TD!!!!i!i!!"

And no, I don't worry about "all things considered" because that's just a phrase that denotes excuses. Fitzpatrick had to deal with the same garbage as he was the most hit QB in the league, but he actually made plays consistently. He didn't make only ONE good throw that ended up being dropped. He made many good throws and that's how we ended up scoring points.

Your standards for "very good" are honestly pretty low.

my standards take into account that Rosen took over a historically bad team and made themlook competent instantly.

which player on the roster played a better game against Dallas than Rosen?

 

[The Goat]

More nonsense.

Your analytical counterpoints are wondrous.

 

[Kamelion4291]

my standards take into account that Rosen took over a historically bad team and made themlook competent instantly.

which player on the roster played a better game against Dallas than Rosen?

You are aware that the Dolphins never hit double digit scoring in Rosen's starts, yes? They may very well have gone 0-16.

 

[The Goat]

How can you be sure of what the teams ahead of you are going to do? How do you know what the teams behind you are willing to do to get ahead of you? Sure you can gamble, but you damned well could come out of this thing looking really stupid.

See, now these are legit questions, but I kinda think the OP covered a lot with this:

"Again, this is just analysis based on what information is out there, not pretending to know anything or have inside knowledge"

 

[Ray R]

All you guys have to say is "I don't like Tua!" And stop trying to disguise it as draft strategy.

But ultimately, the name of the guy isn't as important as identifying one and securing him.

Trying to get cute will just get you burned.

Actually I don't know enough about the top QB's projected in this draft to have real strong support for any of them. I don't believe there is one worth the extra cost of trading up for, but that's just my opinion.

What is more important then who we get is how much we can get out of them on the field. Everything else is secondary to that.

For that reason alone, I would focus on what the Dolphins do with Rosen this year as an indicator for identifying what the FO and coaches are looking to do at QB. If they keep him for the year, they are likely to be more focused on QB development and less focused on the initial QB playing success that so many on here seem to be counting on.

As I read about some of the QB's who are getting talked about a lot, Herbert looks the most interesting to me as a QB and with a real potential for being available for our first draft pick. Of course that assumes we use our first draft pick on a QB.