We wont have to trade up to land our QB, and here’s why

[The Ghost]

We can have 15 first round picks. If you don't get the "right" qb it does not matter.

I’ll take the 15 picks thank you very much.

 

[Michigan Mike]

The Lions aren’t trading Stafford to anybody until the 2021 season at the earliest. If Stafford is traded, he counts for $32 million in dead cap hit for this season.

That would be 16% of their cap space and he wouldn’t even play for them!

That cap hit has been revised downward but it is still a big hit. If they want to get serious about a rebuild, getting out from under his ridiculous contract has got to be one of the first things they do. I can see Patricia being canned during the season as Quinn tries to save his job but he will more than likely follow him out the door after the season. The team is not well run and will be in purgatory until they get new ownership or they let someone that is strong enough to do a complete rebuild.

Matthew Stafford’s 2020 dead-cap is less than reported

Trading Matthew Stafford would cost the Detroit Lions a lot of money in dead-cap, but not as much as originally reported.

sidelionreport.com

 

[Dolfansal]

I’ll take the 15 picks thank you very much.

Then be ready for a lot of mediocre seasons. Until you have a real QB, whoever that may be, we will continue this 20 year trend.

If Tua will be amazing will you regret giving up 2 picks to get him???

We will probably have to move up for Herbert at this point. Giants will trade with Chargers and they will jump us for Herbert. You can bet on that right now.

If Herbert is great is he worth a pick or 2 to move up???

If getting the most important position solidified for the next 15+years means trading away 2 picks that might amount to nothing anyway, it is a NOBRAINER!!!!!

 

[gofins60]

Just like the OP's opinion of Washington going with their young QB, Miami can do the same thing with Rosen. Build the lines, get some more weapons and defense, and finally see what Rosen can do. If he sucks, no problem! They're rebuilding, and another losing record would give them a good shot at a QB in next year's draft. If this happens, then at least a new QB won't be walking onto a team with the worst o-line in the league! (Although I don't trust Grier and the Front Office to build a competent o-line!)

 

[artdnj]

Just like the OP's opinion of Washington going with their young QB, Miami can do the same thing with Rosen. Build the lines, get some more weapons and defense, and finally see what Rosen can do. If he sucks, no problem! They're rebuilding, and another losing record would give them a good shot at a QB in next year's draft. If this happens, then at least a new QB won't be walking onto a team with the worst o-line in the league! (Although I don't trust Grier and the Front Office to build a competent o-line!)

Great point if they like him but I’m not sure they do

 

[Kamelion4291]

Every single team in the league already knows that the floor for Tua is pick #5. Your argument has to be that no other team in the league values Tua enough to trade up past us which is actually kind of hilarious that a new thread was made just to say that because it obviously isn't true.

What is the point of this?

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I would take the Broncos off your list. Elway has already stated that he plans to build the offense around Drew Lock. If Lock fails to turn into the QB Elway thinks he can be, they might be looking to draft a QB in a couple of years but I don’t see them having much interest in drafting a QB in the early rounds this year. The rest of the teams you listed certainly are presently in need of a solid starter in 2020 but I think some of those teams will try and find their new starter in free agency rather than through the draft.

The Chargers are the most likely team to try and jump the a Dolphins IMO but the Dolphins have too many draft resources to let that happen if they really want to move up. I prefer they stay at 5 and draft a QB at that position but if they are sold on Tua, Herbert, or Love and think that another team will move ahead of them to select their desired QB, I guess they will do what is necessary to prevent that from happening.

Agree. Those 'ifs' are important.

 

[Dolfansal]

What happens when Rosen and Fitz win you 6 or 7 games next year and you're siiting at 11 in the 2021 draft. Top 3 QBs will be untouchable and you will be keeping fingers crossed on a prospect that you hope pans out.

We have dealt with so much losing and mediocre seasons that fans just seem numb to it. Let's see what Rosen has???

Does anyone actually think Rosen is our answer for the next decade????

Do I wish? Yes but would I bet my house on it? Heck no. I think Flores and FO has their view of Rosen.

 

[The Bopkin]

1. I wonder how emotional the GM's and talent evaluators get about these prospects; as fans, we have yearned for a QB for so long, watched Tua play all fall till the injury and drool over him. Do these NFL guys just set aside their emotions(to some degree, at least) and just check the boxes on a prospect, rate their traits, and go into the draft with a list and a ranking, or do they get like us fans and totally pine for certain guys? I'd love to know what is going on in Grier's head right now about these prospects. Although I bet he is so busy qualifying and quantifying at this point he hasn't fallen in love with any one yet; or at least if he has, he is still being open to other options in case things come apart.
2. I would like to see more smoke screening from Miami. I know there have been some reports that they like Herbert, but I would like to see more contradictory reports coming out, one day after the next, just an absolute barrage of information and misinformation on a daily basis. I would like to see reports that they love Derrick Brown at five and that they are eyeing a day 2 prospect at QB. I would like them to say that they are open to trading down. All of that. Let NO ONE have any idea what we are up to. Doesn't matter whether people believe it or not. Just start throwing s*** at the wall, it doesn't matter what sticks. Teams should have so many out there reports from our camp that they should expect anything. This is our year to own the draft- 5 picks in the first three rounds, tell me the last time that happened with a team. Not often. All eyes should be on us, and we should be misdirecting EVERY DAMN DAY.

 

[rent this space]

The danger isn't the 4 teams ahead of Miami, it's the ones that would trade ahead of them

 

[tcdrover]

All you guys have to say is "I don't like Tua!" And stop trying to disguise it as draft strategy.

But ultimately, the name of the guy isn't as important as identifying one and securing him.

Trying to get cute will just get you burned.

Any time you are obsessively & TOTALLY focused on ONE player....

It is really no longer a 'draft strategy'.

It is all about one player which is a recipe for disaster in the NFL.

I wonder if any of you guys so fixated on TT even watched any of the Dolphins games last season?

Here's the Cliffnotes summary.... They SUCKED. They don't need a superstar QB...

They need almost an entire ROSTER OF BETTER PLAYERS

 

[The Ghost]

Then be ready for a lot of mediocre seasons. Until you have a real QB, whoever that may be, we will continue this 20 year trend.

If Tua will be amazing will you regret giving up 2 picks to get him???

We will probably have to move up for Herbert at this point. Giants will trade with Chargers and they will jump us for Herbert. You can bet on that right now.

If Herbert is great is he worth a pick or 2 to move up???

If getting the most important position solidified for the next 15+years means trading away 2 picks that might amount to nothing anyway, it is a NOBRAINER!!!!!

you sure like the word if.

 

[Dolfansal]

They can be the Chiefs, Ravens or whoever. If Fitz or Rosen is at QB those teams go 8-8 at best

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Assumptions, smoke screens, skullduggery, and nincompoopery are common this time of year. It’s the draft baby!

1st Assumption: A super talented QB with durability questions long term is someone that everyone is going to trade the farm for to jump in front of us to pick.

Not certain about that. I think that it’s possible that Herbert And Love without trading up and spending valuable draft resources/capital are better options for most teams, (including us) than trading up for Tua. Or, I’m cool with drafting Tua, if he falls to us without having to trade for him if the coaching staff thinks he’s the best available player/QB.

How many teams are a threat to trade in front of us, or take a QB before us?

Washington Redskins. Doesn’t make sense to give up on Dwayne Haskins yet. Their best option is to draft highest rated prospect on their board, which is probably Chase Young, and ride with Haskins for a full year at the helm. Either Haskins will show progress and instill confidence that he could be the guy, our he will implode, and the redskins will be in position to draft a QB 1 next year when Trevor Lawrence and others are coming out. % they draft a QB? Far more unlikely than likely. %chance someone trades for their pick to jump in front of them? Also low, the Lions and Giants picks can be had for a cheaper price, no need to jump in front of the Lions.

Lions. Management is under the gun to win immediately. Their best chance of winning is for Matthew Stanford to come back and for them to set him up with players who can help them win now. They need to either trade back and acquire more picks, or draft the best player available on their board who can help them win now Or they may be unemployed next year, and that stands for both Patricia and their GM.

New York Giants. Daniel Jones is their guy. They don’t need to draft a QB, they have many other holes they have to address here. They will either trade down, or draft the BPA.

So, who does that leave who is a threat to trade ahead of us?

San Diego Chargers. They draft behind us. They could trade up to 3 or 4 if they feel that strongly about Herbert. Doubt they would trade that far up for Tua who has the Durability risk when they can stay put and draft either Tua, Herbert, or Love (Whoever’s left) without trading any draft capital. This is because of an analysis of the following teams who need QB’s potentially badly enough to trade up:

Carolina Panthers. A possibility, but based on what I’ve heard, it is more likely that they roll with Cam Newton this year. Seems like they may be confident in him coming back from his injuries. Now, this could change, but there is a very realistic chance they stay put and draft one of the top QB prospects if they fall to them, or they could draft an incredible player if Bengals, Dolphins, & Chargers all draft QB’s in front of them, then they are left with a very impressive group of talented non QB Players. I believe they will roll with Cam next year And maybe draft a QB later, or sign a Free agent like Teddy Bridgewater or someone else to back up Cam Newton. Besides, at this point it is highly likely that either Love or Tua will be available, so someone can either trade up here or select one of them whoever is available without spending the draft capital to trade in front of us, including the Panthers.

Jaguars. A young prospect will come in handy, but with Foles contract and Minshew in the fold, I doubt it makes sense for them to pay the price it will take to move up ahead of the Dolphins to draft Herbert, or a Durability risk QB, or Jordan Love. I think they have to go one more year with Foles/Minshew and deal with a new QB later in the draft or next year.

Raiders. At this point the cost starts to get prohibitive to jump from 12 to 3 or 4, I.e. in front of us, and the Raiders still have Carr, not sure how they feel about him, they could trade him, not sure what they would get for him, they could go after Tom Brady, or another veteran to compete with Carr, Gruden historically doesn’t like rookie QB’s. but you never know.

Colts. They are built to win now. They will likely go Free agent route with Philip Rivers looking like a solid fit there, possibly even Brady. Unlikely to trade up for a rookie QB and pay the price that it would take from the 13th pick, but you never know.

Broncos. They are desperate for a QB. Elway has failed so much with his rookie QB’s I believe he would rather go the free agent route, but you never know if there is a prospect that he feels so strongly about that he would mortgage the next 2 drafts to move up from 15 to 3 (in front of us is all I’m concerned with) to draft.

Again, this is just analysis based on what information is out there, not pretending to know anything or have inside knowledge, just looking at each team’s situation and applying logic that seems reasonable to me. But, the draft is unpredictable, so we’ll see how it shakes out, but I don’t think we need to trade valuable assets that we traded good players for to get one of the top 4 QB prospects in this draft, and I think Tua still is promising but risky and unnecessary to trade valuable draft assets to select if we want him, and Herbert and Love might be more highly regarded amongst the teams picking than the rest of us think and that Tua’s durability risk makes is less likely that a team will trade too much for him, but you never know.

To state the obvious, no one knows the opinion of Grier/Flo on Tua. Just because some are obsessed with him doesn't require Miami to be. OTOH, just because some here are obsessed with his injuries doesn't mean Miami will be. No one knows.

Your scenario is just as legitimate as anyone else's. It can be argued forever, but disagreeing with you doesn't mean you're wrong. Personally, I think the less likely a team sees itself as getting a top 3 QB, the more likely they are to go FA. The most likely move up is the Chargers, thus, Skins, Lions, Chargers are competitors *IF* Miami is thinking of trading up.

As much as some disagree, Miami will have a limit on what they do *IF* they move up. The price gets to high, Miami doesn't move. They will have a limit. I have no idea what that limit will be

 

[Kamelion4291]

Any time you are obsessively & TOTALLY focused on ONE player....

It is really no longer a 'draft strategy'.

It is all about one player which is a recipe for disaster in the NFL.

I wonder if any of you guys so fixated on TT even watched any of the Dolphins games last season?

Here's the Cliffnotes summary.... They SUCKED. They don't need a superstar QB...

They need almost an entire ROSTER OF BETTER PLAYERS

Did you watch the difference between Rosen starting and Fitzpatrick starting? A one player difference?