I really do think the AFC East is split into two halves. The top half, which is the Dolphins and Patriots, and the bottom half which is the Bills and Jets.
The Patriots are the Patriots and they get Tom Brady back. Of course there are questions whether he will be the same player, but they no matter what will be in the race for the division title. The Patriots will likely win between 9-12 games this season.
The Dolphins are the defending champs, and the road to the 2009 East title goes through Miami. They didn't lose any significant players and used the offseason to bolster their offensive line, secondary and even get back a friendly face in Jason Taylor. With a year under his belt, Tony Sparano and company will have this team ready to go this season. The Dolphins will likely win 9-11 games this season.
Now, lets look at the bottom half of the division.
The Jets have a new coach, an unhappy running back and will likely start a rookie at quarterback. The coach is already off to a bad start as he decided to pick a fight with a player through the media and admitted he didn't even know who Channing Crowder was. How are you supposed to prepare for a division rival if you don't even know who is on the team? Sounds like a guy who should stay away from the buffet table and spend more time in the film room. Sanchez will likely get the nod at QB, and while Ryan and Flacco had success their rookie season, history shows that rookie quarterbacks usually struggle. Plus, this is a guy who only had 16 college starts and couldn't beat out John David Booty for the starting job in 2007. Their defense did get stronger with some additions, but will 2008 bust Gholston step up to the plate? I expect a long year for the Jets and they will probably win between 4-6 games this season.
The Bills made the big media splash when they signed 35 year old receiver Terrell Owens. While he is a "big name" and a player that will help Buffalo get back on the map, he is a QB killer and a team cancer. With Edwards throwing him the ball, he has the worst QB of his career. If he couldn't get along with McNabb, Garcia and Romo, there is no way he will get along with Edwards. The defense supplied no real pass rush last season and while Maybin should help out there, he is way to raw(reports say he was a huge disappointment in mini camps) and will take a year or two to adjust. Lynch is suspended for the first three games. Dick Jauron has only ever had one winning season and I don't see that changing this year. I am not going to give a range for them, I will go with their standard 7-9 season. Though it could be worse, but it definitely won't be any better.