Zim’s Matchup Analysis: Week 1 New England | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Zim’s Matchup Analysis: Week 1 New England

Mach2 said:
It certainly would appear that way.

I'm not as down on the Oline as many here. I don't believe they are a top unit (yet) by any means. I do think they are......... competant?

NE doesn't have a great edge pass rusher that I know of, and I don't see their Dline as anything great either. Tua needs to make good reads and get the ball out quick. Throw in some RPO, a screen here and there. We also have the personnel to go up tempo, with multiple formations, mitigating defensive substitutions.

Moves, counter moves and defensive adjustments is where I see this game being won or lost.
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Didn’t they pick up linebacker from ravens in offseason? He is going rusher.
 
BennySwella said:
Matt Judon. Absolute beast pass rusher
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Beast?

He had a good year in that respect two years ago. About average for most of his career.

He's more of a situational player in a NE type scheme, as shown by his lack of tackles, relative to most quality LBs.

No doubt he has had his moments, but "beast" is a bit of an overstatement IMO.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Matt Judon Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

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DZimmer000 said:
Well…Football is back…And not a moment to soon. I thought I’d start a thread on the upcoming matchups for the week and see if you guys agree or disagree. With that…Let’s get into it.

Miami’s OL vs New England’s DL: Big Edge to New England — Miami’s OL is young and still really learning NFL football. New England has a veteran DL that could cause some problems. This is a huge matchup for Miami. If Austin Jackson and Jessie Davis can keep the pocket relatively clean and give Tua some time…It’s a big plus. However if Wise, Lawrence, Anderson and Godchaux can get some push….It’s going to be a long day for our offense. As for the running game, we need to hold up, move their line back and make New England at least respect the running game. The Patriots went out and spent some money……And it’s not going to be easy against their front 7. In my opinion, the game is won and lost with this matchup.


Miami’s RB’s & TE’s vs New England’s LB’s: Edge to New England — A lot of this is going to be on the OL as mentioned above. We are gonna need some holes because their LB’s pretty good. Judon, Hightower and Van Noy are a formidable group. Gaskin should get the majority of carries for us. I’d like to see us scheme it so Gaskin is being covered by KVN, who’s their slowest linebacker in the passing game. Look for steady diet of Gesicki, Long and Shaheen….And they’re going to need to get some separation. Also, I expect to see BB bringing at least one of these guys all game to pressure Tua.

Miami’s New Receivers vs New England’s Secondary: Big Edge to Miami — Gilmore is out. Their starting CB’s as of tonight are JC Jackson and Jalen Mills. That doesn’t scare me and I don’t think it scares Tua. As stated above, if our OL plays even average, this game is ours. But that’s the rub…..Can they play average? In my opinion, they haven’t looked good so far. I’m looking for a huge debut for Waddle here. Lots a quick short passes by Tua.

Miami’s DL vs New England’s OL: Edge to New England — I’m expecting BB to try to ram the ball down our throats Sunday. He has to protect his rookie QB that’s played against backups all preseason. He’s looked good….But he hasn’t faced a Brian Flores full strength DL and scheme yet. We HAVE to stop the run and make Mac beat us with his arm. This is the 2nd most important matchup in this game.

Miami’s DB’s vs New England’s Receivers: Edge to Miami — We all know Miami has one of the best secondaries in the league if not the best. Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers are not scary. I expect us to be running a lot of press man and cover zero to try to disrupt Mac’s timing with these guys. We can’t give him time.

Tua vs Mac: Big Edge to Miami — I know…They don’t face each other on the field. BUT the press is going to talk about it all week. I like Tua a lot this week….If our OL can hold up and handle a LOT of blitzes. Tua looked great this preseason and, for the most part, didn’t have his starting receivers. As for Mac….He’s going to see a lot of pressure himself. Expect VERY fast passes and a ton of rub routes by New England. And we better be prepared for a heavy dose of the run game. This will be an interesting comparison.

Final Prediction: Miami 31 New England 21: This game is in New England….So expect some bad calls against us. I expect our line to hold up for Tua and after a slow start by both teams, I expect some points in the 2nd half. I may be biased, but I see Miami as the better team here. I always say….If you’re betting on football, bet on the better QB. Well…We have the better QB this week. Also, don’t underestimate the loss of Gilmore. That is definitely going to hurt them.
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We have a huge advantage in ST. Probably will be the difference in the game
 
dolphinheel said:
We have a huge advantage in ST. Probably will be the difference in the game
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Can you elaborate? NE always has a good ST unit. Not saying ours isnt good, just that if we are living or dieing by STs, thats a thin line to walk against the patsies
 
I really don't think NE wins more than 6 games tops this year as I said. The talent gap between us is absolutely massive as far as I'm concerned, and I had Mac Jones as a 3rd or 4th round talent...so color me not scared.

If this was 1970 their team might be constructed to win. Its not, its 2021 and that roster is worse than trash for the modern NFL.
 
Mach2 said:
Can you elaborate? NE always has a good ST unit. Not saying ours isnt good, just that if we are living or dieing by STs, thats a thin line to walk against the patsies
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We have an all pro kicker, a much better return game with Grant, and I’d say the punter’s are a wash although Palardy is a huge improvement over Haack. We were better than the Pats in all these metrics last yr: FG made-2nd, TB%-8th, net punt avg, net punt yds, punt avg (Palardy is a big improvement IMO), punt ret yds-5th, punt ret TDs-1st.

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The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.
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DZimmer000 said:
Well…Football is back…And not a moment to soon. I thought I’d start a thread on the upcoming matchups for the week and see if you guys agree or disagree. With that…Let’s get into it.

Miami’s OL vs New England’s DL: Big Edge to New England — Miami’s OL is young and still really learning NFL football. New England has a veteran DL that could cause some problems. This is a huge matchup for Miami. If Austin Jackson and Jessie Davis can keep the pocket relatively clean and give Tua some time…It’s a big plus. However if Wise, Lawrence, Anderson and Godchaux can get some push….It’s going to be a long day for our offense. As for the running game, we need to hold up, move their line back and make New England at least respect the running game. The Patriots went out and spent some money……And it’s not going to be easy against their front 7. In my opinion, the game is won and lost with this matchup.


Miami’s RB’s & TE’s vs New England’s LB’s: Edge to New England — A lot of this is going to be on the OL as mentioned above. We are gonna need some holes because their LB’s pretty good. Judon, Hightower and Van Noy are a formidable group. Gaskin should get the majority of carries for us. I’d like to see us scheme it so Gaskin is being covered by KVN, who’s their slowest linebacker in the passing game. Look for steady diet of Gesicki, Long and Shaheen….And they’re going to need to get some separation. Also, I expect to see BB bringing at least one of these guys all game to pressure Tua.

Miami’s New Receivers vs New England’s Secondary: Big Edge to Miami — Gilmore is out. Their starting CB’s as of tonight are JC Jackson and Jalen Mills. That doesn’t scare me and I don’t think it scares Tua. As stated above, if our OL plays even average, this game is ours. But that’s the rub…..Can they play average? In my opinion, they haven’t looked good so far. I’m looking for a huge debut for Waddle here. Lots a quick short passes by Tua.

Miami’s DL vs New England’s OL: Edge to New England — I’m expecting BB to try to ram the ball down our throats Sunday. He has to protect his rookie QB that’s played against backups all preseason. He’s looked good….But he hasn’t faced a Brian Flores full strength DL and scheme yet. We HAVE to stop the run and make Mac beat us with his arm. This is the 2nd most important matchup in this game.

Miami’s DB’s vs New England’s Receivers: Edge to Miami — We all know Miami has one of the best secondaries in the league if not the best. Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers are not scary. I expect us to be running a lot of press man and cover zero to try to disrupt Mac’s timing with these guys. We can’t give him time.

Tua vs Mac: Big Edge to Miami — I know…They don’t face each other on the field. BUT the press is going to talk about it all week. I like Tua a lot this week….If our OL can hold up and handle a LOT of blitzes. Tua looked great this preseason and, for the most part, didn’t have his starting receivers. As for Mac….He’s going to see a lot of pressure himself. Expect VERY fast passes and a ton of rub routes by New England. And we better be prepared for a heavy dose of the run game. This will be an interesting comparison.

Final Prediction: Miami 31 New England 21: This game is in New England….So expect some bad calls against us. I expect our line to hold up for Tua and after a slow start by both teams, I expect some points in the 2nd half. I may be biased, but I see Miami as the better team here. I always say….If you’re betting on football, bet on the better QB. Well…We have the better QB this week. Also, don’t underestimate the loss of Gilmore. That is definitely going to hurt them.
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Outstanding write up!
 
dolphinheel said:
We have an all pro kicker, a much better return game with Grant, and I’d say the punter’s are a wash although Palardy is a huge improvement over Haack. We were better than the Pats in all these metrics last yr: FG made-2nd, TB%-8th, net punt avg, net punt yds, punt avg (Palardy is a big improvement IMO), punt ret yds-5th, punt ret TDs-1st.

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The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
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I don't dispute anything you said. That analysis dismisses several things though. Here's some other things to consider. Note how close the overall rankings are for the Dolphins and Pats. I think we have the edge, but not so "huge".

2022 NFL Special Teams Rankings

Get updated exclusive NFL special teams rankings, analysis, stats on LINEUPS.
www.lineups.com www.lineups.com
 
Mach2 said:
I don't dispute anything you said. That analysis dismisses several things though. Here's some other things to consider. Note how close the overall rankings are for the Dolphins and Pats. I think we have the edge, but not so "huge".

2022 NFL Special Teams Rankings

Get updated exclusive NFL special teams rankings, analysis, stats on LINEUPS.
www.lineups.com www.lineups.com
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Grant and Sanders are differnce makers and Palardy is a huge improvement. All this we do know. It’s my opinion that our ST WILL BE the difference in the game
 
Beach Bum said:
I would say we are pretty even, and it balances all out. I think the game will depend on who WANTS it more. The opening game of the year and being at home in front of a crowd where everyone had to put up with the restrictions from last year is going to give them a lot of energy. They are going to be pumped! That doesn't mean we can't be pumped up too. We can, and I hope we treat this like it's prime time, and we are the only game on TV. We have more WANT to, it's showtime, baby!
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we know how important this game is, I'm not sold on New England. If we improved we should win this game, but I expect it will be close. Close enough that we could lose from a bad call, which New England seems to get on their side most of the time. I'm anticipating a win, but living in New England… Things just seem to happen. in my opinion, more than likely the game will hinge on a turnover or two.
 
Mach2 said:
Can you elaborate? NE always has a good ST unit. Not saying ours isnt good, just that if we are living or dieing by STs, thats a thin line to walk against the patsies
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concerning Bill Bell checks run, I've seen some very strange special-teams play or turnovers late in the game that always seemed to go New England's way. I'm talking for over a decade. I'm sure deflategate had something to do with that statistic.
 
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