Chris Grier: “I don’t want to pick 11th.” & Other Notes

[Dolph N.Fan]

All garbage talk. Don’t care what they say. Prove the talk come draft time. BPA available they always say and then they overdraft some scrub like we’ve seen so many years before.

 

[datruth55]

I will give you A.J Felley, that goes back a while now but point taken. I'm talking about the moves this regime has made with them though, as Howie and Tannenbaum have history together going way back. I also disagree that Jay Ajayi was not a good value for a 4th rounder, in fact I think that is the best thing we accomplished this entire eason. With that move, we discovered Drake and got desperately needed draft capital. They got a RB who is a liability in the passing game, has attitude and fumble problems as seen in their win over Chicago. And on top of all that only has 1 year left on his contract and knee concerns to bout. Sure if he helps them win their 1st SB ever (HAHAHA) it was a GREAT move by them, but I somehow find that unlikely. Instead it will just be another waste of much needed draft capital by Howie, similar to when they "fleeced" us with the Rowe trade. We are still reaping the benefits of that.

Well we needed draft capital because these clowns keep giving draft picks away. We gave our 5th rounder away and I don't even remember how. We gave a ton of picks away to move up and draft a WR that doesn't play, we gave Jacksonville a 7th for a slow TE.

 

[TheJetsBlow]

If we are moving up, Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley only

Or a QB.

 

[Kdawg954]

We have a few nice pieces. Ireland found a few of those aswell, so did Hickey.

None has come close to building a functional team. The fo's failure to address the D last year is inexcusable and I will be stunned if they fix it this year either.

Did you not see the last draft? They legit took defense with 5 of their 1st 6 picks.

They drafted a LB in the 2nd and picked up a veteran in Timmons for the short term to help bring along the youth, in addition to signing Kiko, who had a good 2016 season. They resigned Branch who had a good 2016 season in additon to Hayes, plus drafted a DE in the first. They picked a CB to pair with Howard in the 3rd and drafted 2 defensive tackles. Hell they even picked up two free agent safeties.

You can blame them for other things, but don't suggest they didn't reasonably attempt to address the defense. The fact that it still needs addressing reflects more on the state it was in before they got here.

Trying to big up Hickey and Ireland while putting down the current regime on "a lack of addressing the defense" is like an oxymoron dude.

Hell they picked Mcmillan and acquired Alonso and Anthony . . . 3 top 60 picks . . . They are trying to fix a problem that both previous regimes horribly neglected. Now maybe it doesn't get fully fixed but damn at least effort is being made.

How quick we forget names like Ellerbe, Wheeler, Sheppard, Freeney, Spitler, Tripp, Jenkins, Vigil, Paysinger, Hull, Hewitt, Michael Johnson and Trusnik. . . All the LBs acquired from the infamous Ireland 2013 and Hickey's time affiliated with the team.

If that isn't "inexcusable" I don't know what is.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The roster has some actual depth, we just need some star players to develop.

We need Parker to become that alpha dog, we need Tunsil to become that elite pass protector, we need a guy like Phillips to help form that nastiest inside duo in the NFL and most importantly we need Ryan Tannehill to take that next step into becoming one of those "feared" quarterbacks people talk about.

Star players seldom develop. They have been stars previously. Tunsil qualifies. The others do not.

This franchise has a very poor grasp of what to look for. Instead of searching for guys who were legitimate stars throughout their lives and then something happened to obscure their true ability level, the current group obviously applies a tape approach. Tape reliance has an inept record when you consider how parallel the college game and pro game are. Everything out in the open. Same number of players. Virtually the same rules. Etc., etc. The fact that the bust rate is so high is a devastating rejection of tape.

When you rely on tape as absolute there's huge danger of catching someone on the improve and projecting further advancement to greatness. Meanwhile he's a limited guy who has never been special at any level and you just happened to sample his segment of greatest advancement. Big deal. People may not like my golf analogies. Here's another one. The pro stars are almost always elite at a young level. Scratch at high school if not younger. Shooting ridiculously low scores on occasion while still in their teens. Guys who develop later on are sucker bets. Their swing may look awesome, as good as any of the elite players. But the fact that they took so long to come around means something is wrong, that their upside is not nearly as high as the prodigies.

As always, outliers mean nothing. Every time I post something like that there are posters who scramble for exceptions. If you rely on exceptions that's the same flawed philosophy as the talent evaluators who understand the significance of early greatness, but are willing to make exception after exception after exception...betraying themselves.

 

[Danny]

Star players seldom develop. They have been stars previously. Tunsil qualifies. The others do not.

This franchise has a very poor grasp of what to look for. Instead of searching for guys who were legitimate stars throughout their lives and then something happened to obscure their true ability level, the current group obviously applies a tape approach. Tape reliance has an inept record when you consider how parallel the college game and pro game are. Everything out in the open. Same number of players. Virtually the same rules. Etc., etc. The fact that the bust rate is so high is a devastating rejection of tape.

When you rely on tape as absolute there's huge danger of catching someone on the improve and projecting further advancement to greatness. Meanwhile he's a limited guy who has never been special at any level and you just happened to sample his segment of greatest advancement. Big deal. People may not like my golf analogies. Here's another one. The pro stars are almost always elite at a young level. Scratch at high school if not younger. Shooting ridiculously low scores on occasion while still in their teens. Guys who develop later on are sucker bets. Their swing may look awesome, as good as any of the elite players. But the fact that they took so long to come around means something is wrong, that their upside is not nearly as high as the prodigies.

As always, outliers mean nothing. Every time I post something like that there are posters who scramble for exceptions. If you rely on exceptions that's the same flawed philosophy as the talent evaluators who understand the significance of early greatness, but are willing to make exception after exception after exception...betraying themselves.

And once you start making exceptions you'll end up with a team full of exceptions which has happened to our team

Ozzy rules!!

 

[Ikema]

It certainly is early, but looking at tank-athon website I noticed Washington, Arizona, Buffalo, & Jacksonville picking behind us and all possibly coveting a QB. I think there is a good chance a decent QB will be available at 11. Hopefully this could start a bidding war for our pick, preferably Washington or Arizona so we don't slip much.

As a fantasy could you imagine us making a deal first Washington and then Arizona!

Anyways a lot can happen between now and then but it's fun to speculate…

 

[Danny]

Sounds good other than we always seem to get the short end of the stick when we make a trade. But I'd rather trade down. That way if we miss we still have an extra pick. When you trade up then you BETTER hit because you're already down a pick or two

Ozzy rules!!

 

[fin415]

Star players seldom develop. They have been stars previously. Tunsil qualifies. The others do not.
.... The fact that the bust rate is so high is a devastating rejection of tape.

[SARCHASM]
What I can't understand from your post is how no one who's involved in drafting has figured this out yet. Clearly, the correct strategy is trade up for the 1, 2, or 3 legit elite players each draft and do the rest through FA where the skillset is more clearly known.[/SARCHASM]

Prodigies are prodigies/star players because they have a freak athletic gift coupled with the correct physical attributes for their sport. To excel at the professional level, it also takes mental and emotional resiliency and work ethic, and in football, no injuries that might take away that special something of yours. So, after the 1 or 3 legit prodigies that are in each draft, you're left with fielding a team from flawed players and hoping you can coach them up more than the other guy on the other team.

That you think you are the only one with this insight is down right condescending.

 

[Michael Scott]

If we are moving up, Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley only

If we trade up for a guard then I am done with this team for real.

Chubb is the ONLY player in this draft that I'd trade up for, with the exception of jumping a few spots for Smith if necessary.

 

[Kdawg954]

If we trade up for a guard I am done with this team for real.

Yea I like Nelson a lot, but I wouldn't dare trade up for him.

You take 5 BPA players . . . Lets say Nelson/Smith/Fitzpatrick/James/Ferrell . . . Take the best player that is available and if none are you can if anything trade down.

Only trade up if its for a QB (i.e. Don't expect a trade up)

 

[TraderJoe]

We have a few nice pieces. Ireland found a few of those aswell, so did Hickey.

None has come close to building a functional team. The fo's failure to address the D last year is inexcusable and I will be stunned if they fix it this year either.

They drafted 3 defensive linemen, a linebacker and a cornerback. They signed a free agent at LB and S.

What else would you have had them do?

 

[isaacjunk]

Star players seldom develop. They have been stars previously. Tunsil qualifies. The others do not.

This franchise has a very poor grasp of what to look for. Instead of searching for guys who were legitimate stars throughout their lives and then something happened to obscure their true ability level, the current group obviously applies a tape approach. Tape reliance has an inept record when you consider how parallel the college game and pro game are. Everything out in the open. Same number of players. Virtually the same rules. Etc., etc. The fact that the bust rate is so high is a devastating rejection of tape.

When you rely on tape as absolute there's huge danger of catching someone on the improve and projecting further advancement to greatness. Meanwhile he's a limited guy who has never been special at any level and you just happened to sample his segment of greatest advancement. Big deal. People may not like my golf analogies. Here's another one. The pro stars are almost always elite at a young level. Scratch at high school if not younger. Shooting ridiculously low scores on occasion while still in their teens. Guys who develop later on are sucker bets. Their swing may look awesome, as good as any of the elite players. But the fact that they took so long to come around means something is wrong, that their upside is not nearly as high as the prodigies.

As always, outliers mean nothing. Every time I post something like that there are posters who scramble for exceptions. If you rely on exceptions that's the same flawed philosophy as the talent evaluators who understand the significance of early greatness, but are willing to make exception after exception after exception...betraying themselves.

Clearly there is a weighting on both sides of the fence...and people have different philosophies on the relative weight of tape vs. pedigree, plus measurables, and scheme fit. I'm sure it must depend on position as well...we all know heisman QB winners who went undrafted (rightly so), and the supply of star QBs each year is so small that unless you are at the very top of the draft good luck.

But I will say that if you are picking #11 and not picking qb, he should be checking all the boxes..pedigree, tape, and combine #'s. No reason to reach in any category, at least for that pick. And I agree that i cannot fully trust that this crew will not make this mistake here...

 

[Austin Tatious]

I laughed out loud. Happy new year, my friend.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Star players seldom develop. They have been stars previously. Tunsil qualifies. The others do not.

This franchise has a very poor grasp of what to look for. Instead of searching for guys who were legitimate stars throughout their lives and then something happened to obscure their true ability level, the current group obviously applies a tape approach. Tape reliance has an inept record when you consider how parallel the college game and pro game are. Everything out in the open. Same number of players. Virtually the same rules. Etc., etc. The fact that the bust rate is so high is a devastating rejection of tape.

When you rely on tape as absolute there's huge danger of catching someone on the improve and projecting further advancement to greatness. Meanwhile he's a limited guy who has never been special at any level and you just happened to sample his segment of greatest advancement. Big deal. People may not like my golf analogies. Here's another one. The pro stars are almost always elite at a young level. Scratch at high school if not younger. Shooting ridiculously low scores on occasion while still in their teens. Guys who develop later on are sucker bets. Their swing may look awesome, as good as any of the elite players. But the fact that they took so long to come around means something is wrong, that their upside is not nearly as high as the prodigies.

As always, outliers mean nothing. Every time I post something like that there are posters who scramble for exceptions. If you rely on exceptions that's the same flawed philosophy as the talent evaluators who understand the significance of early greatness, but are willing to make exception after exception after exception...betraying themselves.

Its not tape that is the problem. It is measurables. In fact, tape and production is ignored in favor of 40 times. bench press, cone drills, height, weight, and hand size. The combine has become the replacement for scouting.

Watch tape didn't give us Dion Jordan, watching him run around in shorts did.