Also, Welker was 65th in the league in WPA in 2006, his last year with us. The next year, with Tom Brady and company, he was 14th. In 2011 he was 2nd. This past year he was 8th.
Davone Bess is a Playmaker
- Thread starter Shouright
- Start date
When what you're evaluating is how a player increases his team's probability of winning, there is nothing better. Now, if you want to go off on a tangent and talk about other characteristics of players, then other stats will be more suitable.
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2011
- Messages
- 30,099
- Reaction score
- 15,369
That's interesting, because in 2011, with Chad Henne and (mostly) Matt Moore at QB, Davone Bess was 75th in the league in WPA.
In 2012, with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, he ranked 18th.
It almost seems like... Ryan Tannehill is a better quarterback than Matt Moore? But wait, that can't be... because there was this thread a while back, touting 'objective' statistical evidence to support the idea that Matt Moore is a better quarterback than Ryan Tannehill!
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2005
- Messages
- 15,549
- Reaction score
- 2,652
I dont know what to tell you if you think that Bess increases a team's odds of winning more than Fitzgerald, Green, White, and a slew of other upper echelon receivers. Thats one of the single worst arguments I have ever some across on this or any websites.
You still have yet to answer how our offense was so stagnant and limited last year despite the fact that Hartline and Bess had a huge impact on the probability of our wins. Your stat doesnt prove anything. AJ Green can simply show up on the field and run routes without ever being thrown a pass and would impact the game in a real way. Defenses dont fear Bess at all.
---------- Post added at 10:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:19 PM ----------
Basically we have a bunch of guys that give us super high probabilities of winning games but we dont actually win any. Awesome.
fininpsl
Active Roster
Can you people actually find a decent reason to just trash Bess? It is one thing to doubt that he is a playmaker but to say Bess is slower than Welker in an attempt to make a case...
Welkers 40 dash is 4.65
Bess 40 dash is 4.64
Yeah, because the 40 yd dash in shorts is the end all/be all when is comes to speed on a football field. BTW Welker was .2 sec quicker than Bess in the 20 yd shuttle, and a tenth quicker in the 3 cone drill, but even they don't mean as much as what you see on the field, when the pads are on. Welker is faster than Bess on the football field. I like Bess. Not trying to trash him. He's a solid football player. He's not as good as Welker though.
Actually if you ask shouright I'll bet he can point you to a stat that says we are winning games... only it doesn't show up on the scoreboard.
I suspect you don't fully realize the full range of plays that increase the probability of winning, and how non-big-name players can make those kinds of plays in abundance. You're stuck on your pre-conceived notion of who's "good" and who isn't, and unwilling to learn anything new or the limitations of your own perceptions. You have a global construct of "good" that you're overfitting to the data, without considering more subtle brands of play that are better labeled with other constructs.
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2005
- Messages
- 15,549
- Reaction score
- 2,652
No, Im just living in the land of reality where the offense that features Hartline and Bess will stagnate and have trouble scoring. Just a theory though. Its not like I actually have anything to base that on.
Regardless, Bess makes plays that increase his team's probability of winning. It's an objective reality.
He's a good player and a smart player. Moves the chains. Don't forget, he handles the punt return duties deep in own end because he is trusted to be smart w the ball and protect field position. You keep this guy. He can play.
phins_4_ever
E12 FH Tailgate Gang
Honestly we have no way of measuring speed on the field while the pads are on. I just put the stat for the arguments sake out. There is no objective measuring both players on the field in pads. I agree with you that Bess is a solid player. But he looks just like Welker when he was with us. The Pats took a leap of faith on him and won out. Who is to say that Bess won't do better with better players on offense and better execution of the playbook? That was one thing Welker had in NE.
The question of this thread: is Bess a playmaker? My answer: at this point no. But just like with Tannehill I give him next year with a better offense.
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2005
- Messages
- 15,549
- Reaction score
- 2,652
What youre doing is completely ignoring all the X's and O's of football and trying to turn it into something where the players can be easily defined statistically. You cant do that in football. I dont give a flying **** what win probability your stat says AJ Green adds. The undeniable fact is that when he steps onto the field, the defense is forced to acknowledge that and gameplans accordingly. Nobody is scared of Bess. Nobody. AJ Green adds a lot of "win probability" by simply being on the field and breathing. Bess doesnt. Your stat does not account for that. Sabermetrics for football players dont work.
Also, don't forget that moving the chains is how you drive down the field to score. Is it any wonder that Davone Bess and Brandon Gibson have high WPAs when such a high percentage of their catches are for first downs? They're drive-sustainers.
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2005
- Messages
- 15,549
- Reaction score
- 2,652
Of course. He is an average slot receiver. He makes some valuable plays. But you are making the argument that Bess is a better playmaker than some truly elite guys which is completely ridiculous and destroys all your credibility.