Teddy, long time ago I was part of a business that made decisions by developing statistical probability models. To an extent, what I do now reflects probabilities of past comparable reactions. Of course, derived probability is only as valid as the input used and reliable as whoever is tasked with the interpretation and analysis.
Given that, let's say hypothetically that our brainiacs have developed a pretty good back tested probability model and determine that there's a 75% statistical likelihood that Tannehill and/or Weeden will develop into top 12 tier QBs between now and 12 -24 months hence. (I know, it's Ireland and the boys, but let's just roll with the scenario please.)
Having confidence in a time tested analysis, even if it's a reach on either of these guys, Tannehill because of rawness and Weeden due to age and spread formation, wouldn't it make sense to nevertheless grab either of them as soon as possible if you in fact are that confident, rather than conceding to league consensus and sentiment, thereby running the risk of being "penny wise and pound foolish" if some other team snaps the guy up after conducting a similar probability study?
Personally, I don't care that we reach, mostly due to his age, for Weeden at 8, if we have a high determination that he will still give us a distinguished 7-8 year run; that's certainly better than anything since Marino, and plenty of time to groom his successor. Ditto if it takes Tannehill a year to sit behind Moore/Garrard if that same probability asserts he will be a stud 12-24months out. :idk:
Your thoughts?
Let me put it this way, if Miami's front office has full confidence in any quarterback becoming the caliber of player that you speak of here, they should always take him no matter where it's at. If they can come to that conclusion about Tannehill with Mike Sherman's input, then they have to draft him... simple as that.
However, the issue I have is that I don't think there's any way they could sell me that they're completely confident on Ryan Tannehill as being that type of quarterback. If they weren't sold on Ryan Mallett as one of the best players in the 3rd round, or weren't confident that Matt Ryan was that type of quarterback coming out of BC.... how are they going to sell me that they've established that type of confidence in a kid with a year and a half's worth of starting experience under his belt, that still doesn't understand situational football, and isn't comfortable yet with the game resting on his shoulders?
I have a hard time believing that they could convince me that they view Tannehill that way, and aren't just tricking themselves into reaching because they've exhausted every other avenue.
They apparently didn't think Matt Flynn was an upgrade over Matt Moore enough to have that type of confidence in him... so what the hell were they doing pursuing him anyway? In other words, they've already proven that they'll pursue QB's they aren't sold on.
Speaking of statistical probabilities, the statistical probabilities are that 98% of the QB's in this draft never become the type of QB Matt Moore is. It's not easy. I find it hard to believe that someone could be that convinced Ryan Tannehill is in that 2%.
Weeden is a better quarterback than Ryan Tannehill right now. There's no way I can take Weeden at #8, which automatically means I can't take Tannehill there.
Of all the quarterbacks that Miami has passed up in the 1st round over the past 25 or so years, I find it extremely hard to swallow that they're suddenly ready to go all in with a prospect like Ryan Tannehill with a top 10 pick.... although it would be fitting for this organization to do just that.
Why? Because Mike Sherman coached him? Nick Saban was burned at the stake for going after SEC players that he was familiar with.
The difference being that SEC players typically made pretty damn good pros. We're still waiting for the Big-12 quarterback that came in and achieved something other than getting coaches fired.
