McShay's Mock for our 1a selection

[Ikema]

The thing about the hip is we're not going to know a ton more about it by draft day than we do right now.

There are some potentially catastrophic developments that could happen between now and the draft. And if those happen, you don't take him. But the likelihood of those happening, as we sit here right now, is very low (e.g. Tua's doctor said he has a higher likelihood of getting mauled by a bear). So I don't see why there should be a freeze on Tua debate while we wait for more information. It's like saying, we should really hold off on talking about Chase Young until we see whether he gets into a car crash before the draft.

Who knows at this point, maybe someone only needing that one piece gives us an offer we can't refuse to trade down. Again, Maybe we look for our franchise quarterback in 2021

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

I just saw the opponents Miami has to face in 2020 and it's a tough run. 49ers, Seattle, KC, Rams, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, up-and-coming Cardinals… I tend to agree with you if there is any question we should probably concentrate on the trenches now. The chances of us getting another low (or high depending on your POV) draft pick is strong. Maybe we look for our franchise quarterback in 2021

Don't forget too, if you are lucky enough to draft a healthy Tua coming off a serious injury would you really want to play him in 2020 behind this OL? I wouldn't. Nothing but bad things happen in that scenario. Just like Josh Rosen, none of this year's QB's can win behind this OL and this rushing attack. IMO the wise move is to draft OL and defense and get them ready for 2021.

 

[Ikema]

If they are both healthy, Tua for me. Most experts had him as the best QB in the draft pre injury. They were calling him a generational talent. He ran LSU close when he wasn't 100% healthy.

Things are different now though and it will be a gamble to take him though still one which could pay off. I'm glad it's not down to me because it's such a hard decision to make.

Exactly, and this fan base is so unforgiving. Heck half believe they're better than a professional GM. I think CK is right, the information were getting today will probably be as viable as the information we get on draft day concerning Tua, so the pic becomes an effort and faith. If it doesn't work out, it's going to be, "Hateful 88 Volume 2"

 

[tay0365]

I think the unclarity, and high percentage Tua at best is never the same QB again (At worse, never plays a down again), teams will be very nervous to take a shot at Tua, especially if you only have one pick in the 1st.

There is where Miami could have a huge advantage, Miami does not have to use a top 5 pick to take Tua, because teams will be very nervous, but if he reaches into the 20s, Miami can take a shot without be hurt too badly.

If going into 2021 there is still a little shot of Tua being able to play, or at least play at a high level...Miami has two 1st round picks in 2021.

 

[Rick Cartman]

Murray is from Texas, so I assume you meant Jackson. Which btw even the Ravens passed on him and took a TE in the 1st then traded back into the 1st and took a chance. Then they brought in the OC who worked with Kap and the staff fully bought into building the O to his strengths. There was a plan, now stepping back do you really think Gase would have developed or used Jackson correctly?

No one has any idea, but are you satisfied with what's going on now and how the 2018 draft worked out?

 

[The Ghost]

I'm curious a healthy Burrow vs. A healthy Tua and we could have either?

Burrow all day, every day. But I also said that while both were healthy.

Aside from the physical attributes, he wants it. Plays with purpose. He's as gracious as anyone could be while still sporting enough of a chip on his shoulder. As an Ohio State fan, i'm very proud of him, while still concerned about a possible championship match up.

Joe Burrow would have had Penn State in the college playoff, had he gone there. I don't really think Tua is knocking off Ohio State had he played in Happy Valley.

It's all there (talent wise) with JB9. He makes 10 other guys better.

Had to beat the Eagles didn't we. I'm still looking for a PI on that hail mary.

All that said, I'll be big Tua fan in a little over 4 months. Probably!

Both excellent prospects that can give a franchise hope, I'd just prefer the one without the ?'s and that looks like a prototype.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Exactly, and this fan base is so unforgiving. Heck half believe they're better than a professional GM.

How do you know they wouldn't be better? I think the point is, there's a lot that wouldn't be any worse, which is really the point. GM's don't have any special certifications or degrees in talent evaluation that make them anymore qualified than anybody else. It's not like both parties don't already know what the talent pool is - it just boils down to picking the correct players. Scouts don't go to scout school and graduate. It's an art, not a science.

How many NFL GM's in the history of the NFL do you know that have held down a job for more than 6 or 7 years that weren't also the owner? Most of these NFL personnel guys would be working the same job you are if they weren't fortunate enough to be in the NFL. Many of 'em are even crossing over into other professional leagues now.



A lot of people don't realize this but the guy who pioneered the star rating system for recruits coming out of high school worked for Ford Motor Company in Michigan - guy by the name of Joe Terranova. He just did it as a hobby. Now you have all these recruiting services attributing stars to recruits coming out of high school.

Coaches who are the best recruiters don't pay any attention to how any of the recruiting services have kids ranked - they have their own recruiting rankings instead because they prioritize different things relative to what's most important to their particular system. NFL GM's that are successful are successful mostly by the same token. They have a tenured coaching staff that prioritizes a specific set of skills relative to their system that the front office is tasked with acquiring. Unsuccessful GM's are typically unsuccessful because the coaching staff and system keeps changing.



That's why when you clean house, you're supposed to clean house. Half a$$ing it only comes back to bite you.

 

[ANUFan]

Burrow all day, every day. But I also said that while both were healthy.

Aside from the physical attributes, he wants it. Plays with purpose. He's as gracious as anyone could be while still sporting enough of a chip on his shoulder. As an Ohio State fan, i'm very proud of him, while still concerned about a possible championship match up.

Joe Burrow would have had Penn State in the college playoff, had he gone there. I don't really think Tua is knocking off Ohio State had he played in Happy Valley.

It's all there (talent wise) with JB9. He makes 10 other guys better.

Had to beat the Eagles didn't we. I'm still looking for a PI on that hail mary.

All that said, I'll be big Tua fan in a little over 4 months. Probably!

Both excellent prospects that can give a franchise hope, I'd just prefer the one without the ?'s.

I'm no draft expert like some in this draft section.
But the eye ball test tells me that Tua is a lot more of a Pro QB that can make ALL the throws based on reading defensive aligment, down distance, levarage etc.

There are certain types of pro throws i've yet to see Burrow make with a certain level of consistency. Not to mention I'm not sold on his arm talent and making those throws at the pro level that will test that arm.
He's certainly a play maker. No one can take that away from him.

I suppose he's closer to Watson, Jackson in terms of that unique ability to use his legs. But he doesn't have those guys throwing talent and it's not even close.


Overall, Burrow seems to be the type of Qb that needs to be in the right system with coaches that understand his unique skill-sets to maximize.

Whereas, Tua seems to be a QB that can thrive in any system.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Hard to imagine any sane person would rate Burrow over a healthy Tua.

Burrow was the #9 QB in 2015. Tua was the #1 QB in 2017.

Burrow has one year of elite production/play. Tua has been elite every year he's played.

Burrow has a concerns about his arm strength. Tua does not.

Both navigate the pocket at an elite level, and both are very accurate/efficient.

Disregarding health, Tua is just a much, much cleaner prospect.

Burrow has had one of the best seasons in the history of college football that came completely out of nowhere. I think it's important to look at the why...

As a graduate transfer, he's not going to class. All he's doing is taking a few online classes. He's not balancing a student athlete's workload with football like everybody else is doing. All he does is watch film 6 days a week and preparing like a professional, with the close tutelage of an NFL guy in Joe Brady. That is a tremendous advantage that can't be measured. The only person I've ever even heard touch on this was Kirk Herbstreit.

When you project him to the next level, that advantage is no longer going to apply. It gets a lot more even in terms of preparation. It just makes you a little unsure of the upside with Burrow.



If you go back and review the LSU/Bama game, you'll see a certain throw where the receiver is running wide open downfield. Burrow hits him and it's a completion, but he underthrows the ball and the receiver has to slow down because there's no velocity on it and the DB catches the receiver and makes the tackle. If it's Tua throwing that ball it's on the money and a touchdown. It's something that's easily verified over and over again throughout the film with both quarterbacks.

There's zero doubt Tua is a superior talent. There's just no question about it.

However, Tua is just injury prone. He won't protect himself and throw the ball away. He wants to play hero ball. I hammered this before he got hurt again, that I wanted to see smart quarterback play from him in these situations where he tries to extend the play. Didn't happen.



Now here we are. I think there's a strong chance he's coming back.

 

[Dolphinator530]

No one has any idea, but are you satisfied with what's going on now and how the 2018 draft worked out?

Actually I am...right now we have 5 of the first 60 picks and 110 million in projected cap space. There is skill at WR and TE, the defense has some quality guys at LB (Baker, McMillian) and good depth with Eguavoen, AVG and Beigel. The organization has added depth in the secondary by moving Rowe to safety and having Needham develop. Add X to that and could be a very good part of the team. Wilkins is developing and Godchaux is a solid D linemen who will be a great rotational player. Taco has been a welcome surprise and will be a great #2 pass rusher. We need talent but the idea of saying but we could have had Jackson is way to simplistic especially if you think he would have done the same thing in Miami.

And as far as the 2018 draft

1st round - Minkah didnt want to be here and Grier got a 1st rounder out of him. Which looks like it will be about 20ish right now
2nd round - Gesicki has developed and is now a weapon on the offense that is completely limited due to a horrid offensive line
3rd round - Baker is a staring LB and continues to develop
4th round Smythe a blocking TE who is still on the roster and Ballage who is just not good but look around him at who else was available, is anyone a world beater? did we miss out on a stud 5th rounder I mean maybe Tre Flowers but thats a stretch.
7th round - Jason Saunders been inconsistent but has a good leg and a solid kicker

So 4 starters in one draft; and while one isnt here it doesn't take away from the fact that was a talented group

If 2020 draft gets 5 starters out of the first 3 rounds (7 picks with comp) plus 4-7 more in FA. You could see a tremendous development in the team

 

[DOLFANMIKE]

From USA today article:
"Grier’s drafting has also added cornerback Xavien Howard, linebackers Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan to the mix on defense. Tight end Mike Gesicki is looking much more like the value Miami envisioned when they drafted him in the 2nd-round as he nears the end of his second season in Miami. WR/KR Jakeem Grant and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux were late-round steals for Miami back in 2016 and 2017 respectively, as well.

But the real problem for the Dolphins during Grier’s tenure hasn’t been his picks. It’s been the lack of volume at the top of the NFL Draft. Chris Grier has made just 9 selections in the top-75 in the NFL Draft order over the course of four NFL Drafts."

Having 5 of the first 60 picks and 110 million in projected cap space may improve us in a hurry. Plus next year's draft will also bring us a haul of talent in the early rounds.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Burrow has had one of the best seasons in the history of college football that came completely out of nowhere. I think it's important to look at the why...

As a graduate transfer, he's not going to class. All he's doing is taking a few online classes. He's not balancing a student athlete's workload with football like everybody else is doing. All he does is watch film 6 days a week and preparing like a professional, with the close tutelage of an NFL guy in Joe Brady. That is a tremendous advantage that can't be measured. The only person I've ever even heard touch on this was Kirk Herbstreit.

When you project him to the next level, that advantage is no longer going to apply. It gets a lot more even in terms of preparation. It just makes you a little unsure of the upside with Burrow.



If you go back and review the LSU/Bama game, you'll see a certain throw where the receiver is running wide open downfield. Burrow hits him and it's a completion, but he underthrows the ball and the receiver has to slow down because there's no velocity on it and the DB catches the receiver and makes the tackle. If it's Tua throwing that ball it's on the money and a touchdown. It's something that's easily verified over and over again throughout the film with both quarterbacks.

There's zero doubt Tua is a superior talent. There's just no question about it.

However, Tua is just injury prone. He won't protect himself and throw the ball away. He wants to play hero ball. I hammered this before he got hurt again, that I wanted to see smart quarterback play from him in these situations where he tries to extend the play. Didn't happen.



Now here we are. I think there's a strong chance he's coming back.

Hell of a post, Slimm. How much of Tua's unwillingness to protect himself can be tied to the college atmosphere? Particularly with Saban, who, great as he is, has a reputation for using his players up (kind of reminds me of Pat Riley's reputation back when he was coaching basketball).

If it weren't for you and Namor saying there's a real chance Tua returns, I wouldn't believe it tbh, but if he does declare, and I'm the team that drafts him, I'd sit him for 2020. Especially for a team like Miami, there's no rush to get him on the field right away, and it'd give me another year to build the OL.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

Not saying Burrow is a system QB but feel Tua can adapt to any style of system better.

Actally, you are saying Burrow is a system QB...

Burrow was next in line at Ohio State until he broke his thumb and was leapfrogged by Dwayne Haskins. I submit that Burrow would have had AT LEAST the same season that Haskins had. He had a speedbump last season learning a totally different offense, but when he learned it...he became 1A to Tua's 1a (injuries besides the bad hip).

I know Tua supporters are going to say some BS like, "He had to learn two new offenses and they were written in latin by a dark wizard who hated football." This isn't true.

"The season-opening win over Duke gave some hints to the flavor Steve Sarkisian will add to the recipe leftover from Mike Locksley. The sample size is too small to make grand statements but there were themes of note."

--------​

I could be wrong, but it sounds like Sarkisian is simply adding to the pre-existing playbook...a sentiment echoed by the site (note the question mark):

New year. New offensive coordinator.

New offense?

-----​

What’s different about Alabama’s offensive scheme

Insight into the different looks of the Alabama offense under Steve Sarkisian.

www.al.com

 

[ckparrothead]

Is the feeling really that he’s gonna have to sit the entire 2020 season?

If so we might not have to move to get him. And man that’s gonna be a long agonizing wait to play him.

Reality is, no he will not sit the whole year.

But his off season schedule will be severely impacted to where the chances of him walking out of camp and preseason having won the QB1 job from this coaching staff...are low. So they'll start whichever other guy is paired with him, and from there it becomes about tracking Tua's progress in a practice setting, and seeing how long you can last until the pressure is too great. They'll be on the hook for W's next year, unlike this year.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Hell of a post, Slimm. How much of Tua's unwillingness to protect himself can be tied to the college atmosphere? Particularly with Saban, who, great as he is, has a reputation for using his players up (kind of reminds me of Pat Riley's reputation back when he was coaching basketball).

If it weren't for you and Namor saying there's a real chance Tua returns, I wouldn't believe it tbh, but if he does declare, and I'm the team that drafts him, I'd sit him for 2020. Especially for a team like Miami, there's no rush to get him on the field right away, and it'd give me another year to build the OL.

I don't buy it J-doll. As a quarterback, you have to know situations and protect yourself. I've already talked about this in regards to Tua. He gets hurt when he tries to run around and extend the play instead of just throwing the ball away. Every single time. This is what happens. He gets hurt by taking unnecessary hits when Bama is up big and it's 1st or 2nd down. He hasn't learned how to protect points already on the board in the redzone or protect himself.

When Saban pulled Tua up 35-7 against Mississippi St., he was done. But Tua campaigned for one more shot at getting some 2 minute work right before halftime since he had been missing so much practice. Saban agreed. Imagine he regrets that decision now.

When Saban sent Tua back in the game, he did it with the assumption that Tua knowing he was already injured and fresh off ankle surgery, wouldn't go out there and try to play hero ball up 35-7 and take another unnecessary hit instead of just throwing it away.

I don't know where that reputation comes from but I'd be interested in listening in an attempt to let them clarify. However, I do believe he'll stay healthier in the NFL than he ever did in college because the NFL protects quarterbacks. You can't even put weight on them when you tackle. They don't have any of that garbage in college. A lot of these tackles with guys landing on him he's taking in college he won't take in the NFL.