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Merged: Ask Boomer (No B.S. Wanted)

ckparrothead said:
BTW, wouldn't the very definition of "average" be that half the guys have better arms than you and the other half have worse arms than you? A little perspective, please.
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I get what you're saying but it'll be hard to agree because we've got different grading systems. The way you're putting it an average NFL arm is in the middle and means that 'half the guys have better arms than you and the other half have worse arms than you'. See my view is that an average arm is well 'average' which means a 10 points on 20 points (50%) (I tend to think Brees is in this category).
An above-average arm would grade anywhere between 51% and 70% (Big Ben would be in the lower tier of this category with Palmer, Culpepper rounding out the top), while a below-average arm would turn out to be anything between 30% and 49% (Grossman, Bouman etc..)
Then you've got the big guns at 70% and more (the ability to throw a 40 yard dart on the run a la Mike Vick) and poor arms at 29% and lower (the ability to throw a 30 yard duck a la Ken Dorsey).
With that system I figure Big Ben grades out as an above average arm which would be in the 51% to 70%.

Anyway CK, I might as well ask you this...If you were to address 3 positions in the first 3 rounds what would they be (in no particular order and evidently without knowing what will happen in FA) ?
 
Please tell me that you have some inside info on the Dolphins going heavy on defense this draft. Gabe Watson for instance at 16 to me is a steal and a safety like Jason Allen in the second brings new life to this team. I say we have one more solid year of overall good play from the defensive unit before age begins to show in injury and subpar play. So my thoughts are to go defense. I am of the thought that the Dolphins will eventually go 3-4 more than 4-3. So with that thinking I know we need LB's. Rate these players Kai Parham, Gerris Wilkinson, Rocky McIntosh and AJ Nicholson. And can we get them all? Lastly what are your thoughts on Stanley McClover taking over our rush LB (JT position) and adding more than 3 DB's (Marshall, Slay, Allen, J. Joseph, Bullocks, and/or Blackmon and maybe Hester) through the draft.
 
Boomer,

I wholeheartedly agree with you, I think that this next coming season could go either way, we might slip to 7-9, we might go 10-6, but it won't be till 2007 that make a major move. IMO it traditionally takes a coach, or a high level corporate executive 3 years for a plan to execute at its optimu level, for whatever reason, finanices, getting the correct people in place, changing the mentality of the organization.

What we saw last year was amazing considering the talent we lack at certain positions on our team, ie DB, oline , and QB. Randy Mueller didn't come on board until late March last year correct? Maybe even later than that, an I'm sure that he had to bring in his own people, or got on the same page with Saban as to what he feel's Miami's needs are based on the philosophy that Saban implemented. Not only that but doesn't Mueller have to hire a staff as well?

Parcells was able to get Dallas into the Playoffs in his 2nd year i beleive however they have since slipped 2 years in a row, so.

I do beleive that this is a crucial off-season for us in terms of really laying the foundation for the type of players Saban wants, he turned over nearly half our team last year, and I think we might see another major turnover this year.

Do you disagree?
 
burghPhinFan said:
Hey Boom
I was glancing thru USA today's Sportsweekly today, they have their 'top 64'.
I didn't see Cromartie in there anywhere. They went on to list top prospects by pos.-Cromartie was farther down the list, 8th I think-projected as a 3rd rounder. You along with Mayock from NFL network are very high on him (a comparison to Deion Sanders was made by FSU). I'm guessing we'll see his stock rise as he proves he's over his injury? Say Miami gets a QB signed by draft day (Brees, Ramsey etc.) Do you think Miami gets Cromartie @ 16? Or do you feel there's a bigger need there? like OL? then address a DB in the 2nd round? any chance Cromartie falls to the 2nd?
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Unless he struggles in Indy, if the knee doesn't get the all clear, etc or if he shows his change of direction has been hindered by the ACL, then he won't fall. But if he runs the sub 4.35 time that he's been running during workouts, then it's my feeling that he'll be an early to mid first rounder who, if on the board at 16, represents tremendous value.
 
MelbournePhin said:
hey boom, any word on aj nicholson?? thanx in advance
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Hey mate,

Word in what respect? I've not heard of any Miami interest if that's what you mean. AJ has some serious off field issues to contend with - beginning with his pleading no contest to his DUI arrest last February and an incident in June with Tallahassee police that led to a dropped charge of resisting arrest where he was shot down with the Taser. There is also the rape or sexual assault issue hanging over him from the incident at the Westin Hotel prior to the Orange Bowl.
 
blackthought said:
Please tell me that you have some inside info on the Dolphins going heavy on defense this draft. Gabe Watson for instance at 16 to me is a steal and a safety like Jason Allen in the second brings new life to this team. I say we have one more solid year of overall good play from the defensive unit before age begins to show in injury and subpar play. So my thoughts are to go defense. I am of the thought that the Dolphins will eventually go 3-4 more than 4-3. So with that thinking I know we need LB's. Rate these players Kai Parham, Gerris Wilkinson, Rocky McIntosh and AJ Nicholson. And can we get them all? Lastly what are your thoughts on Stanley McClover taking over our rush LB (JT position) and adding more than 3 DB's (Marshall, Slay, Allen, J. Joseph, Bullocks, and/or Blackmon and maybe Hester) through the draft.
Click to expand...

I'm afraid I don't have any inside info on anything. What I do think you'll see is Miami bringing in some defensive quality. Watson is certainly a player that the team seem interested in and for whom CK and I think could turn out to be a tremendous NFL player after a rather up and down college career.

Allen needs to get the medical all clear on the hip injury, so this week in Indianapolis will be key for him. Again, a good player who's flying a little under the radar because of his health status.

Essentially we are a 3-4 that has the personnel to play either way, but for whom the 3-4 is the future. Kai Parham I like a lot, rangy, very quick player, solid 2nd rounder IMO. Gerris is a little underrated at the moment. Great size, but probably a MLB as he's essentially a 2 down player because of coverage struggles. That said, he can consistenty get into the backfield off the edge. McIntosh I talked about earlier - inconsistent, plenty of talent, but never quite done it for me. With regards Nicholson, see above. His off field issues and lack of speed concern me.

Can we get them all? Why would we need to? You're not going to draft 4 LB's in any draft, especialy one where you have other great needs and not all your picks.

McClover is very raw. Athletic, but raw. He's very quick off the edge, but he struggles when linemen engage him and he could never get off a block.

I think we'll add a CB and a safety - Cromartie, Richard Marshall, Slay, Greg Blue, Ko Simpson, Bullocks would all make sense.
 
westernnyphinfa said:
Boomer,

I wholeheartedly agree with you, I think that this next coming season could go either way, we might slip to 7-9, we might go 10-6, but it won't be till 2007 that make a major move. IMO it traditionally takes a coach, or a high level corporate executive 3 years for a plan to execute at its optimu level, for whatever reason, finanices, getting the correct people in place, changing the mentality of the organization.

What we saw last year was amazing considering the talent we lack at certain positions on our team, ie DB, oline , and QB. Randy Mueller didn't come on board until late March last year correct? Maybe even later than that, an I'm sure that he had to bring in his own people, or got on the same page with Saban as to what he feel's Miami's needs are based on the philosophy that Saban implemented. Not only that but doesn't Mueller have to hire a staff as well?

Parcells was able to get Dallas into the Playoffs in his 2nd year i beleive however they have since slipped 2 years in a row, so.

I do beleive that this is a crucial off-season for us in terms of really laying the foundation for the type of players Saban wants, he turned over nearly half our team last year, and I think we might see another major turnover this year.

Do you disagree?
Click to expand...

hmmm....early to talk about records, BUT no way do I see us taking a step back in record. The jets and bills are bad, and we are only going to get better. Super Bowl ? Probably not, but hey after seeing Pitt win, hell you just never know.
 
Boom, thanks a ton for posting here, you give great insight...
I have a few more questions...

1) Thoughts on ATL, OT, Kevin Shaffer?

2) I'm sure you have been asked this a hundred times, yet I didn't see it... What are your thoughts on Scott Ware, SS, USC??

Thanks...
 
westernnyphinfa said:
Boomer,

I wholeheartedly agree with you, I think that this next coming season could go either way, we might slip to 7-9, we might go 10-6, but it won't be till 2007 that make a major move. IMO it traditionally takes a coach, or a high level corporate executive 3 years for a plan to execute at its optimu level, for whatever reason, finanices, getting the correct people in place, changing the mentality of the organization.

What we saw last year was amazing considering the talent we lack at certain positions on our team, ie DB, oline , and QB. Randy Mueller didn't come on board until late March last year correct? Maybe even later than that, an I'm sure that he had to bring in his own people, or got on the same page with Saban as to what he feel's Miami's needs are based on the philosophy that Saban implemented. Not only that but doesn't Mueller have to hire a staff as well?

Parcells was able to get Dallas into the Playoffs in his 2nd year i beleive however they have since slipped 2 years in a row, so.

I do beleive that this is a crucial off-season for us in terms of really laying the foundation for the type of players Saban wants, he turned over nearly half our team last year, and I think we might see another major turnover this year.

Do you disagree?
Click to expand...

I agree - crucial off-season, especially with the amount of QB's on offer. Tim to solidify that spot.
 
Pink_Dove said:
I get what you're saying but it'll be hard to agree because we've got different grading systems. The way you're putting it an average NFL arm is in the middle and means that 'half the guys have better arms than you and the other half have worse arms than you'. See my view is that an average arm is well 'average' which means a 10 points on 20 points (50%) (I tend to think Brees is in this category).
An above-average arm would grade anywhere between 51% and 70% (Big Ben would be in the lower tier of this category with Palmer, Culpepper rounding out the top), while a below-average arm would turn out to be anything between 30% and 49% (Grossman, Bouman etc..)
Then you've got the big guns at 70% and more (the ability to throw a 40 yard dart on the run a la Mike Vick) and poor arms at 29% and lower (the ability to throw a 30 yard duck a la Ken Dorsey).
With that system I figure Big Ben grades out as an above average arm which would be in the 51% to 70%.

Anyway CK, I might as well ask you this...If you were to address 3 positions in the first 3 rounds what would they be (in no particular order and evidently without knowing what will happen in FA) ?
Click to expand...

I think your system of measure isn't appropriate for the characteristic we are measuring. These arm strength measures can't be measured with such detail as to say that Matt Hasselbeck is 57th percentile and Ben Roethlisberger is 61st percentile, or vice versa. What you have are groups, groups where really it could be argued that any one of the guys has better arm strength than any of the other guys. This is because arm strength isn't JUST a matter of how far you can throw it, or how fast. Some guys throw it faster with more zip in the intermediate areas but can't bomb it 80 yards like Daunte Culpepper can. Some guys can throw a rope off their back foot on a regular basis while others that look stronger when they both wind up, would toss lolly pops if he didn't use the right foot mechanics.

As I said, I've actually broken this all down, and came out with a group of 25 guys that have arms that are very strong or even better than that...the top 5 arms were pretty discernibile from that group so I guess you could say there was a group of 5 that separate, then a group of 20 that separate, then a group of about 8-9 that separate, and then a group of 1-2 that clearly lag. Again, within any of those groups, it would be exceedingly difficult to look at let's say Trent Green's arm vs. Tom Brady's arm and say...hmm...which guy has better arm strength and by how much. Not every population measures out like scores on an SAT test...and this certainly isn't a normally distributed population. Due to the stickiness, and the groupings, what I would say is that Brees does not belong in that group of 25 arms, and he's PROBABLY not quite at the top of the next group (Brady and Green would be at the top)...so you can't really say he has an "average" arm when he ranks somewhere between 28 out of 35, or 30 out of 35.

Anywho I don't have 3 set positions for the first day. I view the 4th round to be virtually a first day pick, I always have. I've done studies of the 4th round that show that there's alarmingly little difference between the 3rd and 4th round in terms of hit/miss percentage.

A lot will depend on what we do in free agency as well. Obviously we are set to address the quarterback position somehow. We have Gus Frerotte and we have Cleo Lemon. If we get Drew Brees, we may say goodbye to Gus Frerotte...which would open us up to drafting a guy early...or we may keep Gus for stability, and that would mean drafting a guy in the 7th. If we get Daunte Culpepper, Gus definitely has to stay, and with Cleo Lemon hanging around, that opens you up for drafting a guy anywhere from the 7th, 4th, maybe even the 3rd round (Daunte WOULD be 30 by the time he is able to play for us, and there's no guarantees he'd be the same player). If you grab someone like Patrick Ramsey or Josh McCown, I think you have to draft someone higher (like the 2nd...maybe 3rd) because neither of those guys has a very good shot at being "the future" at the position.

If we do not address our Sam linebacker position in FA with Julian Peterson, that position becomes a HIGH priority in the draft. This means 1st or 2nd round...likely candidates include Chad Greenway (if a miracle happens), Bobby Carpenter, Spencer Havner, Thomas Howard, and POSSIBLY Manny Lawson, Daryl Tapp, or Mark Anderson, depending on how Nick feels about converting a DE for our Sam spot (some clubs do it regularly). If we get Julian Peterson, our linebacker needs broaden generally from a Sam linebacker to just big-bodied outside/inside guys that can work into the rotation (such as Kai Parham, Gerris Wilkerson, etc.). Generally, I think we're getting a LB in the first four rounds, just like I said if we get Peterson look for it to be Round 1 or 2, if not look for it to be wherever we see value.

I think the coaches have to upgrade the depth at Nose Tackle. This is one of the reasons I put Gabe Watson high on our board...aside from the fact that he's a physically gifted dominating tackle that just needs to learn consistency and discipline (and who better to show him the way?). Even this position will also depend on free agency a bit. Grady Jackson is coming off his best year as a pro, has played the same position we want before, and Mueller brought Grady to New Orleans. I can't remember if he was ever actually a FA or if the Pack had just been considering cutting him, but he was a guy I thought Miami would go after last off season and it never materialized. If we get Grady Jackson (or the guy in Baltimore, Ma'ake Kemoeatu) to help Keith Traylor man that spot on the DL, I think you can kiss the nose tackle position goodbye in the draft. Nick generally likes to have tall, sleek, powerful, and very ACTIVE guys running around his DL and he's not going to reserve more than two roster spots for the more "square-bodied" boulders that man the nose position. Note that would not shut down the DT position as a whole...we would still be very likely to draft a guy in the top four rounds that figures to be able to play Vonnie Holliday's spot...unless we went wild in FA and scored Anthony Weaver AND Grady Jackson...but I don't think that happens.

Corner, again, very dependent on FA. Do we bring in a Ty Law? Do we let go of Sam Madison? What's our interest level in Jerry Azumah? If we don't go wild on corners in FA I see us using a first day pick on a corner...especially if Travis Daniels can make the move to FS. Safety is less dependent on FA because our needs at that position are strong through and through...whether we address a spot in FA or not. Yeremiah Bell has shown promise but he doesn't keep you from drafting a good safety. I'm not sure Lance Schulter will be back and if he is, it might be just to keep continuity while a rookie grooms to replace him. Tebucky Jones can't be back at his current price tag with his backloaded contract, but he was doing very well before getting hurt. Do we just let him walk and have Yeremiah take his spot full time? I think the emphasis will be on fluidity in the defensive backfield...making versatility guys like Jason Allen, Jimmy Williams, and Michael Huff a nice premium. Of course Antonio Cromartie would just flat out be our ace corner for years. If some safety prospects make sense we'll take one, and if the value seems to be at the corner position look for us to load up on corners and move Daniels to safety. Therefore, it would not surprise me to see us drafting a safety and a corner, or even just two corners. At least one of those will come in rounds 1 through 4.

OL is a need area. Damion McIntosh is a guy I think will be replaced. Seth McKinney may end up back with the team if we can't sign someone big like LeCharles Bentley. I like Benji Olson as a possible cap casualty out of Tennessee...I think if you can sign Benji and place him at RG, move Rex Hadnot to center...you're doing ok. I would personally like to sign a very strong RT that could possibly start immediately...very similar to what we TRIED to do with Stockar last year unsuccessfully. That would allow us to move Vernon Carey back to LT where he and Anthony Alabi could hold a true competition to be our LT this year...where Alabi is probably the future. We need depth on the interior...so a top 4 pick at guard is a definite possibility, and I know they are looking at OG Willie Colon as a 7th round possibiltiy. Charles Spencer is a hot commodity right now, the only guy that was able to pancake Gabe Watson at the Senior Bowl practices (and how dominant was Watson at these practices that a guy like Charles Spencer is drawing raves from scouts because he managed to get the better of Watson once?). I don't think Max Jean-Gilles is a possibility for the Dolphins at #16, but if we trade down to the #29-#33 area, he becomes a possibility. Another guy they really like is Davin Joseph. I get the feeling our coaches believe Jean-Gilles and Joseph would be RTs for us, before eventually moving inside to guard. That's my feeling. They showed some immediate interest in Davin and Max and I think it was no coincidence that both guys showed up with two of the top 3 reaches at the Senior Bowl, Jean-Gilles' was second only to uber-prospect D'Brickashaw Ferguson, and Joseph's reach was second only to Ferguson and Jean-Gilles. BOTH players have tackle experience...and Hudson Houck has a great track record with taking guys with raw power and pretty good feet, and making them decent pass protectors with technique and discipline.

So, as far as need areas go...QB, OL, LB, S, CB, and DT/NT are all possibilities in rounds 1 through 4. Even WR is a possibility in rounds 3 or 4 (and I get the feeling round 2 if Chad Jackson is there). We just don't have enough picks to get a guy in every area...which is why they'll be paying attention to what prospects rate where as players, and they'll be looking to fill some areas in FA.
 
Nice way to break it down man. Muchas gracias.
 
FinaciousOne said:
Thanks Guys.

Do you see any realistic, potential scenarios using current personnel, in which Miami could increase their number of picks?
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There are lots of possibilities. One thing our coaches have shown is that they'll send guys off for low round picks once training camp begins...Ayanbadejo, Bedell, and Chatman are all good examples. They made the Patrick Surtain thing happen. Nick Saban said after the season was done that every player on the roster is up for sale at the right price...and I think he truly believes that.

Sam Madison is a trade possibility...though he won't garner NEAR as much as people tend to think. We'd be lucky to get a 4th for him...and considering we're looking at cutting him anyway, we really ought to execute that if we get offered that much for him.

I've always considered David Bowens to be an underrated excellent trade prospect. I think a 3rd for him is not really out of the question...though I have a hard time believing we'd send him off anywhere unless we managed to draft Manny Lawson somehow.

If we had the inclination, and I doubt we do, I am sure we could get something for Yeremiah Bell too. He is a typical trade story. We originally drafted him injured and unable to play his rookie year, with a low round pick where if completely healthy he might have been a 4th. We put in the time and patience with him rehabbing, gave him playing time in 2004 and then more in 2005. Teams that look at the tape will see a guy that still needs some polish and coaching as far as his tackling angles and assignments, but a guy that also has the great natural size and athleticism, and ability to make plays, that you can't coach up in a player. Didn't we originally draft him in the 6th? Considering the investment we've put in him, shining him up with some new polish after being a low round injury case, he's another guy we could get a 4th for I believe. I doubt someone would cross the line and give a first day pick for him, though...would have to be someone picking low.

There was speculation we could get a pick for Zgonina last year. I think with another year of age that has probably disappeared.

We may actually field a phone call or two looking to spend a 7th on Junior Seau since he still wants to play another year. They could wait until he gets cut, but after he gets cut there might be teams thinking they could use him, but that he's going to turn back and go straight back to San Diego where he probably belongs (Ben Leber is a UFA). The 7th could be seen as the price to be paid for the right to get Junior's attention away from San Diego.

I think Vonnie Holliday has increased his stock tremendously with the year he had. What we did is we uncovered something the NFL did not ever really know FOR SURE about Holliday (there were suspicions)...and that is that he is a natural as a DE in the 3-4. There's some teams out there that are playing the 3-4 now that it has gotten popular again, and they need effective 3-4 DEs. Miami allowed him to show that he was just plain miscast in Kansas City's 4-3 alignment. Do we have the inclination to allow him to leave? I don't think so. But, if we did, I believe we could get a 3rd or 4th for him...would be higher if we had him under contract longer.

Flip Manny Wright off to a team today and he's a 3rd round pick. Not a bad investment overall, wouldn't you say? We spent a 2006 5th rounder on him, got two games out of him filling in very nicely for Keith Traylor, flip him off for a 2006 3rd rounder...it's like moving from a 5th to a 3rd for FREE, AND getting a few games of solid contribution in 2005. That's how much of a steal we got in Manny Wright. Of course, we won't do that, because he could be our future at the 3-technique, with abilities to fill in at nose in the rotation.

Hard to say if Damion McIntosh is worth anything. He increased his FA value with a decent season, but the latest wife-beating incident may turn people off to making more than just a salary cap investment in him. If the Dolphins are hot on getting rid of him, maybe they just cut him outright, and teams might be satisfied just waiting for that possibility...even with the thin market at OT. If we get surprising bites on the line for D-Mac, I'd pull the trigger. IF there is any interest for him at all, I would probably say 5th round.

Marty Booker could garner a Day 2 pick, I would think. Probably not a Day 1 pick.

Other than that I don't see anyone else being tradable BEFORE the draft. I see lots of guys that could end up being given out for low round conditional picks once training camp starts, a few injuries occur, etc. Derrick Pope is a guy that I WISH the market would recognize for the talent that he is. As things stand he might garner 6th or even 5th round consideration pre-draft...there's enough tape on him (2004 plus 2005) to make teams interested...but I believe as an undersized guy nobody's going to pay up for him unless they really need a backer (injury) or unless they see him string together 10 games or something. I believe he's miscast in our system, yet still has the talent to shine through it anyway (not unlike Zach) and that opens up the possibility that he's worth more to other teams than he is to us, due to compatibility issues. For now we should probably keep him locked up, and if an injury happens and he gets to string together 10 games of tape, let the bidding war begin.
 
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