How smart is Vegas setting it at 7.5? Unreal. They know all.
Yeah, but in this case they don't want to be correct. If Miami wins exactly 7 games the sportsbooks lose quite a bit on this prop. I confirmed that with a couple of sportsbook managers yesterday. The number opened 7.5 and they took a ton of under money. There was still an under trend at 7 so most joints dropped to 6.5. At that point there was an even distribution until the final couple of days, when some big money hits showed up on the over. No doubt those were guys who already had some under 7.5 and now they were coming back for a middle, hoping it fell exactly 7.
That's the way to maximize opportunity in Las Vegas. It's hardly a matter of betting Jets +4 and then sitting there like a dope until Sunday hoping they cover the 4. My USC friends were startled the first time they visited me in Las Vegas and accompanied me on the daily routine. It's like picking off one gem here and one there, all in mathematical coordination with each other even if it's not obvious at the time. Cat amd mouse with the sportsbooks. Leaving one of them with absolutely nothing, but the next one with a little grin on your face. I certainly don't recommend it to very many people but in my case if aligns with several of my strengths -- sports, math, puzzles, probability, patience and instincts. The latter is particularly important because you need a feel toward the direction of the move. It's amazing how many bad or mediocre bets can be saved by a great number.
NFL season win/over unders are increasingly sophisticated. There are countless websites who do probability and distribution evaluation. The sportsbooks are happy to take advantage. Previously they merely put up a number that sounded good, the same type of thing I mentioned last week in regard to Nate Silver and how his site has ruined political betting.
Besides, there are only so many numbers that are in play. A team pegged at 7 is unlikely to win 13 or 3. Mediocre teams in a league with deliberately balanced talent find ways to win a handful of close games and lose a handful of close games. Consequently the sportsbooks can look like geniuses when mere normalcy is in vogue. NBA or MLB over/unders can have considerably greater distribution. Of course, bet one of those and you wait 6 months or longer for it to be decided. I tried it and surrendered, toward mental well being. Last thing I need during a summer trip is to care how the Pirates are faring.
