F
FLOUNDER
ESPN's take on tommorow nights game
West Virginia vs. Louisville Defense This is a classic match up of strength-versus-strength, as the nation's top-ranked rushing attack attempts to penetrate the eighth-ranked run defense. West Virginia QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton make up college football's most lethal backfield tandem. Together, they account for 239.7 of the team's 319 rushing yards per game. White is a slippery runner with good open-field elusiveness and Slaton possesses good power for his size to go along with rare acceleration in space. They are both aided by a West Virginia offensive line that has become the benchmark for efficiency in college football today. The unit makes up for its overall lack of size with exceptional technique, quickness and effort. The interior trio of OC Dan Mozes and guards Jeremy Sheffey and Greg Isdaner are the strength of this unit, which is important considering how disruptive the massive interior tandem of Amobi Okoye and Willie Williams can be versus the run. MLB Nate Harris was demoted two games ago for his poor play. His replacement, Lamar Myles, is a budding star, but the 215-pound sophomore can be exposed for his lack of size and inexperience in this game. The rest of the Cardinals' linebackers are also undersized, which means they'll need to be protected in order to make plays from sideline-to-sideline versus the run.
Rich Rodriguez's offensive scheme is predicated on spreading opponents out and using great blocking angles and technique to generate creases in the running game. If his offensive line proves capable of overcoming a distinct size advantage inside versus Okoye (305 pounds) and Williams (300 pounds), Louisville's smallish trio of linebackers (Myles, WLB Preston Smith and SLB Malik Jackson) should be effectively neutralized.
The Mountaineers are rarely forced into obvious throwing situations, but White has proven capable of beating opponents through the air when necessary. White's accuracy is less than ideal, but he does throw well on the run and shows good touch on the deep ball. The biggest key for the Cardinals' defense is to load up with eight- and nine-man fronts versus the run without leaving themselves vulnerable to the deep ball. That means DC's Gavin Smart and William Gay will be under lots of pressure when left alone in man-to-man coverage versus speedy receivers Darius Reynaud and Brandon Myles. Reynaud leads the team with 25 receptions and is extremely dangerous after the catch. Myles also does a fine job as a route runner and is effective catching the ball in traffic. The most recent receiver to provide some big plays is Rayshawn Bolden, who is averaging 21.2 yards on just five receptions. The Cardinals cannot afford to play much nickel personnel with five defensive backs on the field, so expect the Mountaineers to target Bolden down the seams from the slot position when they see a safety locked on him. A few big receptions from the trio of Reynaud, Myles and Bolden could ultimately prove to be backbreaking for Louisville in this game.
Louisville Offense vs. West Virginia Defense QB Brian Brohm is the biggest X-factor in Thursday night's game. When he is in full form, few passers in the nation are as efficient and accurate as Brohm. However, the 6-foot-4, 224-pound junior has not found his rhythm since returning from a thumb injury that sidelined him for two games earlier this season. Louisville has averaged just 25.5 points in two past two games with Brohm throwing two interceptions compared to just one touchdown. In contrast, the team was averaging 44 points in the previous five games with the quarterbacks (Brohm and Hunter Cantwell) tossing eight touchdowns and just three interceptions. Some statistics can be deceiving, but those are difficult to ignore.
Meanwhile, Louisville has been forced to show more dedication to the running game. The good news is that RB Kolby Smith is coming off a career game with 165 yards and two touchdowns versus Syracuse. Smith is a punishing north-south runner at 215 pounds and shows straight-line some burst in the open field. The bad news, however, is that Smith pales in comparison to injured starter Michael Bush, who played a key role in last year's game versus West Virginia with four touchdowns. At 250 pounds with great speed, power, vision, hands and blocking skills, Bush provided a level of versatility that few backs can attain. While Smith should provide quality ground production between the tackles, he lacks the elusiveness and receiving skills to cause severe issues for WLB Kevin McLee and the Mountaineers' defensive front-seven.
West Virginia's biggest Achilles' heel on defense is the amount of big plays it surrenders through the air. Its defensive secondary is undisciplined and safeties Ridwan Malik and Quinton Andrews get caught peaking in the backfield too frequently on play action, which leads to gaping holes down the middle of the field in coverage. Louisville also has great perimeter matchups to target in the passing game with receivers Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas versus cornerbacks Vaughn Rivers and Larry Williams. The matchup between Urrutia and Rivers is especially enticing because of Urrutia's 9-inch height advantage. If Brohm gets into an early rhythm and returns to early-season form, the Mountaineer secondary will be in for a long evening. However, after studying Brohm's hesitancy as a decision maker and uncharacteristically erratic arm, it seems more likely that Louisville will squander too many offensive opportunities to pull off the victory.
Special Teams
Louisville's Art Carmody is one of the most accurate place kickers in the nation. He has connected on 11-of-12 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 51 yards. PT Todd Flannery is averaging a respectable 39.7 yards per punt while landing four of his 17 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. West Virginia is also solid in the kicking game with PK Pat McAfee and PT Scott Kozlowski providing good experience and consistency. McAfee has nailed 9 of his 12 field goal attempts with a long of 48 yards. One of his three misses was a block, and he has not missed from inside 40 yards. Kozlowski has adequate leg strength and good directional skills. He is averaging 40.9 yards per punt and has dropped four of his 15 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
The real difference between these two teams is in the return game, where West Virginia is far more lethal. Vaughn Rivers is averaging an impressive 12.8 yards per punt return, including a 50-yard touchdown. He also serves as the No. 2 kickoff return specialist behind Reynaud, who has emerged as one of the premier kickoff return men in the country with his average of 30.8 yards per attempt. Reynaud has one touchdown return of 96 yards this season.
Louisville's return units, on the other hand, have failed to provide its offense with a spark. Trent Guy has taken over for the struggling Patrick Carter as the team's top punt return specialist, but Guy is only averaging five yards on four returns. JaJuan Spillman is the team's top kickoff return man with a measly average of 18.7 yards per attempt. The Cardinals have also struggled in kick coverage, which has to be a major concern for Petrino and his staff heading into Thursday night's game.
Matchups
• West Virginia RB Steve Slaton vs. Louisville MLB Nate Harris
• Louisville RB Kolby Smith vs. West Virginia WLB Kevin McLee
• Louisville WR Mario Urrutia vs. West Virginia CB Vaughn Rivers
Scouts' Edge
West Virginia commits too many penalties and its defense gives up too many big plays via the air, which will be capitalized on by a good opponent like Louisville. If Brohm were on top of his game the Cardinals could outlast the Mountaineers in a shootout. Unfortunately for Petrino's team, he's not.
It took three overtimes for the Mountaineers to pull off a miraculous comeback last season after trailing the Cardinals by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter. Thursday night's Big East showdown will be close, but not that close. Slaton will prove up to the task, and White will make a few key throws to keep Louisville off-balance. In the end, Rodriguez's squad will play its best game of the season and knock off the home team at a not-so-intimidating Papa John Stadium venue. Points may also be tougher to come by than most may expect.
Prediction: Mountaineers 30, Cardinals 21
West Virginia vs. Louisville Defense This is a classic match up of strength-versus-strength, as the nation's top-ranked rushing attack attempts to penetrate the eighth-ranked run defense. West Virginia QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton make up college football's most lethal backfield tandem. Together, they account for 239.7 of the team's 319 rushing yards per game. White is a slippery runner with good open-field elusiveness and Slaton possesses good power for his size to go along with rare acceleration in space. They are both aided by a West Virginia offensive line that has become the benchmark for efficiency in college football today. The unit makes up for its overall lack of size with exceptional technique, quickness and effort. The interior trio of OC Dan Mozes and guards Jeremy Sheffey and Greg Isdaner are the strength of this unit, which is important considering how disruptive the massive interior tandem of Amobi Okoye and Willie Williams can be versus the run. MLB Nate Harris was demoted two games ago for his poor play. His replacement, Lamar Myles, is a budding star, but the 215-pound sophomore can be exposed for his lack of size and inexperience in this game. The rest of the Cardinals' linebackers are also undersized, which means they'll need to be protected in order to make plays from sideline-to-sideline versus the run.
Rich Rodriguez's offensive scheme is predicated on spreading opponents out and using great blocking angles and technique to generate creases in the running game. If his offensive line proves capable of overcoming a distinct size advantage inside versus Okoye (305 pounds) and Williams (300 pounds), Louisville's smallish trio of linebackers (Myles, WLB Preston Smith and SLB Malik Jackson) should be effectively neutralized.
The Mountaineers are rarely forced into obvious throwing situations, but White has proven capable of beating opponents through the air when necessary. White's accuracy is less than ideal, but he does throw well on the run and shows good touch on the deep ball. The biggest key for the Cardinals' defense is to load up with eight- and nine-man fronts versus the run without leaving themselves vulnerable to the deep ball. That means DC's Gavin Smart and William Gay will be under lots of pressure when left alone in man-to-man coverage versus speedy receivers Darius Reynaud and Brandon Myles. Reynaud leads the team with 25 receptions and is extremely dangerous after the catch. Myles also does a fine job as a route runner and is effective catching the ball in traffic. The most recent receiver to provide some big plays is Rayshawn Bolden, who is averaging 21.2 yards on just five receptions. The Cardinals cannot afford to play much nickel personnel with five defensive backs on the field, so expect the Mountaineers to target Bolden down the seams from the slot position when they see a safety locked on him. A few big receptions from the trio of Reynaud, Myles and Bolden could ultimately prove to be backbreaking for Louisville in this game.
Louisville Offense vs. West Virginia Defense QB Brian Brohm is the biggest X-factor in Thursday night's game. When he is in full form, few passers in the nation are as efficient and accurate as Brohm. However, the 6-foot-4, 224-pound junior has not found his rhythm since returning from a thumb injury that sidelined him for two games earlier this season. Louisville has averaged just 25.5 points in two past two games with Brohm throwing two interceptions compared to just one touchdown. In contrast, the team was averaging 44 points in the previous five games with the quarterbacks (Brohm and Hunter Cantwell) tossing eight touchdowns and just three interceptions. Some statistics can be deceiving, but those are difficult to ignore.
Meanwhile, Louisville has been forced to show more dedication to the running game. The good news is that RB Kolby Smith is coming off a career game with 165 yards and two touchdowns versus Syracuse. Smith is a punishing north-south runner at 215 pounds and shows straight-line some burst in the open field. The bad news, however, is that Smith pales in comparison to injured starter Michael Bush, who played a key role in last year's game versus West Virginia with four touchdowns. At 250 pounds with great speed, power, vision, hands and blocking skills, Bush provided a level of versatility that few backs can attain. While Smith should provide quality ground production between the tackles, he lacks the elusiveness and receiving skills to cause severe issues for WLB Kevin McLee and the Mountaineers' defensive front-seven.
West Virginia's biggest Achilles' heel on defense is the amount of big plays it surrenders through the air. Its defensive secondary is undisciplined and safeties Ridwan Malik and Quinton Andrews get caught peaking in the backfield too frequently on play action, which leads to gaping holes down the middle of the field in coverage. Louisville also has great perimeter matchups to target in the passing game with receivers Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas versus cornerbacks Vaughn Rivers and Larry Williams. The matchup between Urrutia and Rivers is especially enticing because of Urrutia's 9-inch height advantage. If Brohm gets into an early rhythm and returns to early-season form, the Mountaineer secondary will be in for a long evening. However, after studying Brohm's hesitancy as a decision maker and uncharacteristically erratic arm, it seems more likely that Louisville will squander too many offensive opportunities to pull off the victory.
Special Teams
Louisville's Art Carmody is one of the most accurate place kickers in the nation. He has connected on 11-of-12 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 51 yards. PT Todd Flannery is averaging a respectable 39.7 yards per punt while landing four of his 17 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. West Virginia is also solid in the kicking game with PK Pat McAfee and PT Scott Kozlowski providing good experience and consistency. McAfee has nailed 9 of his 12 field goal attempts with a long of 48 yards. One of his three misses was a block, and he has not missed from inside 40 yards. Kozlowski has adequate leg strength and good directional skills. He is averaging 40.9 yards per punt and has dropped four of his 15 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
The real difference between these two teams is in the return game, where West Virginia is far more lethal. Vaughn Rivers is averaging an impressive 12.8 yards per punt return, including a 50-yard touchdown. He also serves as the No. 2 kickoff return specialist behind Reynaud, who has emerged as one of the premier kickoff return men in the country with his average of 30.8 yards per attempt. Reynaud has one touchdown return of 96 yards this season.
Louisville's return units, on the other hand, have failed to provide its offense with a spark. Trent Guy has taken over for the struggling Patrick Carter as the team's top punt return specialist, but Guy is only averaging five yards on four returns. JaJuan Spillman is the team's top kickoff return man with a measly average of 18.7 yards per attempt. The Cardinals have also struggled in kick coverage, which has to be a major concern for Petrino and his staff heading into Thursday night's game.
Matchups
• West Virginia RB Steve Slaton vs. Louisville MLB Nate Harris
• Louisville RB Kolby Smith vs. West Virginia WLB Kevin McLee
• Louisville WR Mario Urrutia vs. West Virginia CB Vaughn Rivers
Scouts' Edge
West Virginia commits too many penalties and its defense gives up too many big plays via the air, which will be capitalized on by a good opponent like Louisville. If Brohm were on top of his game the Cardinals could outlast the Mountaineers in a shootout. Unfortunately for Petrino's team, he's not.
It took three overtimes for the Mountaineers to pull off a miraculous comeback last season after trailing the Cardinals by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter. Thursday night's Big East showdown will be close, but not that close. Slaton will prove up to the task, and White will make a few key throws to keep Louisville off-balance. In the end, Rodriguez's squad will play its best game of the season and knock off the home team at a not-so-intimidating Papa John Stadium venue. Points may also be tougher to come by than most may expect.
Prediction: Mountaineers 30, Cardinals 21
I hope so!