Which draft scenario is most appealing to you? | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Which draft scenario is most appealing to you?

Which player of the 3 would you be most intrigued if drafted? If not, explain other.

  • Trade up for CB Dee Milliner (Swap of 1sts and one 2nd rounder)

    Votes: 13 12.0%

  • Trade up for OT Lane Johnson (Swap of 1sts and one 2nd rounder)

    Votes: 14 13.0%

  • Draft WR Tavon Austin at 12

    Votes: 32 29.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 49 45.4%
  • Total voters
    108
PolitePolite said:
Giving up only a 2nd for Milliner is a no brainer.
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"No brainer" as in making a decision without using a brain? I would hesitate to draft Milliner at #12 let alone waste draft picks to move up. Nothing against the guy, but good corners are a dime/doz in this draft and that's what he is: good...he ain't no Revis. I just drafted Amerson in our VIP mock in round 4 and he's as fast as, and bigger than Milliner; they all have some issues. Using a 1st round pick on a CB in this draft is an airhead move and trading up for one is just Ginnsane.

RW
 
Ruckus45 said:
We brought in playmakers this year. This isn't Madden where you can bring in everybody you want so we will prob look to bring in more next year. This year we still need Tanne on his feet. You're right, the NYG and GB and sub par run blocking OL but the majority of teams in the playoffs and Super Bowl didn't. I just proved that.

We are not a SB team this year but we could be a playoff team. Fix the OL this year, make the playoffs, and I'll be right with you next year screaming for guys like Austin. Heck, I still wouldn't mind taking a risk on one in later rounds as long as OL is first. Welker, Cruz, Amendola, and Bess were all UDFA. Might get a gem. If not, address next year.

Don't know about bottom receiving units - doesn't have that as a category. My guess is they are with a subpar QB though.
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We brought in playmakers? We brought in a playmaker. Put Austin inside of Wallace, and that is a lethal combination. The D stretches because of Wallace, and Austin has the ability to make a D pay for giving that space. None of our current WR's are going to make a D pay for giving Wallace extra attention. You can get an OT in the 2nd or 3rd. If you have the opportunity to give your offense a piece that can take it to the next level, you do it.
 
Well, Keller ranked 3rd in DVOA of all TEs showing he provides exceptional upgrade over Fasano- makes plays. Our current WRs will do more than you might think when opened up. I think they'll surprise this year.

I'm just saying the smart move now is protect the franchise qb using stats to back it up. Sure, it's safe but works. Just check this out: http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftoffensivetackles.php
 
Sign Winston for 3 million, trade down and acquire a third 2nd round pick or a third. Draft BPA.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Would you rather have Joe Thomas and some average WR or Wes Welker with turbo boosters and some average OT?
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Depends on who is throwing the ball. But if I had to sacrifice somewhere I'd have a top ten line, good qb, and average WRs. Look at Chicago- good qb, good receivers, no OL. No playoffs either. NE with a great OL, 1 good receiver, good qb - playoffs. MIN & WAS both top ten OL in run blocking, decent WR core but nothing special, playoffs.

You're also assuming Austin is going to be Welker with turbo boosters. There is a higher risk for WR busts in first round. Of the last 96 WRs taken in the first round 23 were a bust while only 15 were home runs. For interior OL (Cooper like I'm screaming) of 40 first rounders you only have only 6 busts with 7 home runs. Meanwhile, the best slot receivers in the game were all UDFA.

My point is we can address both of our perceived needs in the same draft, but Austin isn't in that picture due to risk of drafting that position at a high pick.
 
Most definitely trade down would be the best move possible. Picking up another 2nd round pick in such a deep draft is a great strategy.. Especially when there are no "top guys" in the first 12 picks. It's all sort of the same value.
 
Ruckus45 said:
Depends on who is throwing the ball. But if I had to sacrifice somewhere I'd have a top ten line, good qb, and average WRs. Look at Chicago- good qb, good receivers, no OL. No playoffs either. NE with a great OL, 1 good receiver, good qb - playoffs. MIN & WAS both top ten OL in run blocking, decent WR core but nothing special, playoffs.

You're also assuming Austin is going to be Welker with turbo boosters. There is a higher risk for WR busts in first round. Of the last 96 WRs taken in the first round 23 were a bust while only 15 were home runs. For interior OL (Cooper like I'm screaming) of 40 first rounders you only have only 6 busts with 7 home runs. Meanwhile, the best slot receivers in the game were all UDFA.

My point is we can address both of our perceived needs in the same draft, but Austin isn't in that picture due to risk of drafting that position at a high pick.
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The obvious reason that C/OG's have a better success rate than WR's drafted in the first round is that only truly elite interior linemen are drafted in the first round, because interior O-linemen don't impact the game the way WR's do. How many of those 1st Round OG's and OT's have rings?

Before the Packers drafted an OT in the 1st, they already had Jennings, Jones, Driver, and Nelson.

Last year's Ravens team had only one O-linemen that the Ravens drafted in the 1st. The other 1st RD draft pick on that O-line was brought in on the cheap and considered finished by most. Here are what the last few SB O-lines have looked like.



Colts:

LT: 1st Round
LG: UDFA
C: UDFA
RG: 5th Round
RT: 4th Round

Giants:

LT: 5th Round
LG: UDFA
C: UDFA
RG: 2nd Round
RT: 3rd Round

Steelers:

LT - 3rd Round
LG - 6th Round
C - 6th Round
RG - UDFA
RT - 4th Round

Saints:

LT - 4th Round
LG - 5th Round
C - 5th Round
RG - 4th Round
RT - 2nd Round

Packers:

LT - 2nd Round
LG - 2nd Round
C - 7th Round
RG - 4th Round
RT - 1st Round

Giants:

LT - 5th Round
LG - 6th Round
C - 2nd Round
RG - 2nd Round
RT - 3rd Round

Ravens:

LT - 1st Round (back in '02, by the Vikings)
LG - 2nd Round
C - 6th Round
RG - 3rd Round
RT - 1st Round

The last SB team to field more than one 1st Round OT that said team drafted was the '05 Steelers. Their LG, C, and RG were all 1st Round picks, but it should be noted that none of them were drafted before pick 23.

So of the last seven SB Champions, there have have been only four 1st Round starters on the O-line. That's 4/35. There were seven 2nd Round O-linemen, four 3rd Round, five 4th Round, five 5th Round, four 6th Round, one 7th Round, and five UDFA's. So:

1st: 4
2nd: 7
3rd: 4
4th: 5
5th: 5
6th: 4
7th: 1
UDFA: 5

Looking at WR's from these same teams:

Colts:

WR: 1st
WR: 1st

Giants:

WR: 1st
WR: 2nd

Steelers:

WR: 1st
WR: 3rd

Saints:

WR: 7th
WR: 2nd

Packers:

WR: 2nd
WR: 2nd

Giants:

WR: 1st
WR: UDFA

Ravens:

WR: 2nd
WR: 2nd

Of the 14 starting WR's of the last seven SB winners, five were 1st Rounders, six were 2nd Rounders, one was a 3rd Rounder, one was a 7th, and one was a UDFA. So:

1st: 5
2nd: 6
3rd: 1
4th: n/a
5th: n/a
6th: n/a
7th: 1
UDFA: 1
 
To add some perspective, this is what the 2012 Miami Dolphins O-line looked like:

LT: 1st Round
LG: 3rd Round
C: 1st Round
RG: 3rd Round
RT: 1st Round


The 2012 Miami Dolphins had one fewer 1st Round pick on its O-line than the last 7 SB winners combined. But let's draft O-line in the 1st. Good idea.
 
You realize RT was 2nd round right? Well, you make a good point - same point can be made of slot WRs like Austin:

Cruz: UDFA
Welker: UDFA
Amendola: UDFA
Bess: UDFA
Harvin: 1st
Cobb: 2nd
Shipley: 3rd
Colsten: 7th

When home runs are consistently hit in later rounds for slot WRs but are a higher risk to draft in the first round than an OL why draft a slot WR in the first? The risk/reward isn't there.
 
Ruckus45 said:
You realize RT was 2nd round right? Well, you make a good point - same point can be made of slot WRs like Austin:

Cruz: UDFA
Welker: UDFA
Amendola: UDFA
Bess: UDFA
Harvin: 1st
Cobb: 2nd
Shipley: 3rd
Colsten: 7th

When home runs are consistently hit in later rounds for slot WRs but are a higher risk to draft in the first round than an OL why draft a slot WR in the first? The risk/reward isn't there.
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Of the guys you list who were drafted after the 2nd Round, only Welker and Cruz are both slot WR's (Colston plays the slot sometimes, but he's not a slot WR) and worth noting as successful.
 
I really hope we don't trade up.
 
j-off-her-doll said:
Of the guys you list who were drafted after the 2nd Round, only Welker and Cruz are both slot WR's (Colston plays the slot sometimes, but he's not a slot WR) and worth noting as successful.
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All of those guys are slots. Colston is the least "slotty" but still lines up there. What would you call them if not slot?
 
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