The Contenders:
Miami Dolphins (0-3)
Cincinnatti Bengals (1-2)
Indianapolis Colts (0-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
KC Chiefs (0-3)
Denver Broncos (1-2)
Minnesota Vikings (0-3)
Carolina Panthers (1-2)
Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
St. Louis Rams (0-3)
In Red, I have highlighted teams that can finish ahead of us without the danger of taking Luck because they have young, talented QBs.
The remaining are our competition in the Luck sweepstakes. We must finish lower than them in the draft rankings in order to have a good shot at getting Luck either through original draft position or trade.
Colts
Chiefs
Broncos
Seahawks
That is our competition. At first glance, it would appear that the Dolphins have more talent than these teams. However, you must also take note that we are in a much harder division. The Chiefs, Broncos and Seahawks could all get wins from their weak division competition.
I have not done an analysis of their schedules, but I have looked at the Dolphins schedule, and given their loss to the Browns, and the loss of confidence in the lockerroom, I could see a freefall happening now.
In my opinion, the 2 biggest threats in the Luck sweepstakes right now are the Colts and Chiefs. The Chiefs hate their coach and have had multiple injuries. The Colts are nothing without Manning and Caldwell is a bad HC.
I will continue to update this as the season wears on.