anyone got a report on Roth so far?

[ckparrothead]

That's great, but in reality, virtually every player in the NFL was the best or one of the best players on his college team, possibly for all time. Success in college does not equal success in the NFL. Ask Danny Wuerffel.

Yeah but you had to have seen Roth play to really understand what RothFan is talking about.

Dave Te Thomas (long time sell side scout) graded out the 2005 draft class and gave Roth his highest grade possible (only one player gets the grade, in his system) for on-field character.

There's a reason. Roth's motor wasn't just good. It was phenomenal. His first step and explosion off the snap was also amazing. Last year, you didn't see the same motor, didn't see the same first step. Why? Because he was so nervous he was questioning everything he did...always questioning whether or not he had the right call. He's no Einstein with the books. As the year went on he became a teensy bit more comfortable, and he started making better plays.

He fell out of the first round because of his arms. Long arms are important for NFL DEs...and his arms are short. It sounds silly but it's not, he was a bonafied first round pick if not for his short arms. With the short arms he seems destined for 2-gap responsibility, and for a 2-gapper he's a little short (6'3") and underweight (273 lbs). Even with the arms the Dolphins did not expect to see him available in Round 2. Dan Quinn flat out told him in his Combine interview that he loves him, but we're not looking at him for #2 overall, and there's no way he escapes Round 1. They would have still taken Corey Webster over Matt Roth in Round 2 had he been there, but were quite satisfied to take Matt Roth.

You usually do not find that kind of strength at the point of attack, first step explosion, and sheet motor and determination unless you're spending a high investment. We spent a high investment (same investment it took to get Culpepper). Some day, when Kevin Carter starts slipping, we're gonna be awful glad we spent that pick on Matt Roth.

I know people thought he wasn't impressive as a rookie but I disagreed. For MOST of the year, I thought he was just as impressive as Channing Crowder...except Crowder had the opportunity to start and Roth never had that.

 

[islandah]

Yeah but you had to have seen Roth play to really understand what RothFan is talking about.

Dave Te Thomas (long time sell side scout) graded out the 2005 draft class and gave Roth his highest grade possible (only one player gets the grade, in his system) for on-field character.

There's a reason. Roth's motor wasn't just good. It was phenomenal. His first step and explosion off the snap was also amazing. Last year, you didn't see the same motor, didn't see the same first step. Why? Because he was so nervous he was questioning everything he did...always questioning whether or not he had the right call. He's no Einstein with the books. As the year went on he became a teensy bit more comfortable, and he started making better plays.

He fell out of the first round because of his arms. Long arms are important for NFL DEs...and his arms are short. It sounds silly but it's not, he was a bonafied first round pick if not for his short arms. With the short arms he seems destined for 2-gap responsibility, and for a 2-gapper he's a little short (6'3") and underweight (273 lbs). Even with the arms the Dolphins did not expect to see him available in Round 2. Dan Quinn flat out told him in his Combine interview that he loves him, but we're not looking at him for #2 overall, and there's no way he escapes Round 1. They would have still taken Corey Webster over Matt Roth in Round 2 had he been there, but were quite satisfied to take Matt Roth.

You usually do not find that kind of strength at the point of attack, first step explosion, and sheet motor and determination unless you're spending a high investment. We spent a high investment (same investment it took to get Culpepper). Some day, when Kevin Carter starts slipping, we're gonna be awful glad we spent that pick on Matt Roth.

I know people thought he wasn't impressive as a rookie but I disagreed. For MOST of the year, I thought he was just as impressive as Channing Crowder...except Crowder had the opportunity to start and Roth never had that.

Blah, blah, blah... there are plenty of college prospects that graded out best/had a phenomenal motor/ were the best in their conference, etc... the reality is some make it, some don't. Some need time to develop, which Roth might. He also suffers by comparison when the 3rd and 4th rounders picked both started- but that's just our good fortune, not his fault.

I'm just saying you use college careers to decide who to pick where, because that's all the real data you have, but I take their college performance with a grain of salt once they hit the big time.

 

[ckparrothead]

Blah, blah, blah... there are plenty of college prospects that graded out best/had a phenomenal motor/ were the best in their conference, etc... the reality is some make it, some don't. Some need time to develop, which Roth might. He also suffers by comparison when the 3rd and 4th rounders picked both started- but that's just our good fortune, not his fault.

I'm just saying you use college careers to decide who to pick where, because that's all the real data you have, but I take their college performance with a grain of salt once they hit the big time.

I see. You must be one of those guys that would never take any unproven rookie over any proven vet.

I could go on and on about Reggie Bush's attributes that he showed in college and you'd be like "blah blah blah there are all kinds of players that graded well in college"

 

[RothFan]

Yeah but you had to have seen Roth play to really understand what RothFan is talking about.

Dave Te Thomas (long time sell side scout) graded out the 2005 draft class and gave Roth his highest grade possible (only one player gets the grade, in his system) for on-field character.

There's a reason. Roth's motor wasn't just good. It was phenomenal. His first step and explosion off the snap was also amazing. Last year, you didn't see the same motor, didn't see the same first step. Why? Because he was so nervous he was questioning everything he did...always questioning whether or not he had the right call. He's no Einstein with the books. As the year went on he became a teensy bit more comfortable, and he started making better plays.

He fell out of the first round because of his arms. Long arms are important for NFL DEs...and his arms are short. It sounds silly but it's not, he was a bonafied first round pick if not for his short arms. With the short arms he seems destined for 2-gap responsibility, and for a 2-gapper he's a little short (6'3") and underweight (273 lbs). Even with the arms the Dolphins did not expect to see him available in Round 2. Dan Quinn flat out told him in his Combine interview that he loves him, but we're not looking at him for #2 overall, and there's no way he escapes Round 1. They would have still taken Corey Webster over Matt Roth in Round 2 had he been there, but were quite satisfied to take Matt Roth.

You usually do not find that kind of strength at the point of attack, first step explosion, and sheet motor and determination unless you're spending a high investment. We spent a high investment (same investment it took to get Culpepper). Some day, when Kevin Carter starts slipping, we're gonna be awful glad we spent that pick on Matt Roth.

I know people thought he wasn't impressive as a rookie but I disagreed. For MOST of the year, I thought he was just as impressive as Channing Crowder...except Crowder had the opportunity to start and Roth never had that.

Saban watched this guy play when Iowa played his LSU Tigers in the Outback Bowl a couple days before he took the head coaching job with the dolphins. Saban saw first hand at what Roth was and is capiable of. At least someone here knows what he is talking about and yes Roth will be a moster on defence if he is giving a chance. With the 3-4 Defence that is coming into place this year, not only can he play DE he has the speed to play LB. They will find playing time for Roth this year.

 

[ckparrothead]

Saban watched this guy play when Iowa played his LSU Tigers in the Outback Bowl a couple days before he took the head coaching job with the dolphins. Saban saw first hand at what Roth was and is capiable of. At least someone here knows what he is talking about and yes Roth will be a moster on defence if he is giving a chance. With the 3-4 Defence that is coming into place this year, not only can he play DE he has the speed to play LB. They will find playing time for Roth this year.

Roth wasn't a good linebacker at Iowa. He was moved to DE because he wasn't good in space. I doubt he'll ever pull back and play linebacker in Miami. They're moving him the other direction, bulking him up to play 2-gap DE.

 

[islandah]

I see. You must be one of those guys that would never take any unproven rookie over any proven vet.

I could go on and on about Reggie Bush's attributes that he showed in college and you'd be like "blah blah blah there are all kinds of players that graded well in college"

No, that's not what I'm saying. Of course you want rookies for youth and building the future( and cost efficiency) and you take the ones that have the most potential based on the info you have, which is basically their college careers. But it is always a calculated risk. I remember many said Emmitt Smith was too small, he turned out OK. Ryan Leaf, not so much.

My point is that a year of actual time in the NFL is probably a better predictor of future success than his career in college. We now have more data (and more significant data) in terms of predicting his NFL abilities. What we had before was data regarding his college abilities and a guess towards NFL ability.

And as for Bush, yeah, my jury is still out. But his potential upside, though unproven, is greater than a lot of proven vets (especially those on the downslope of their careers). But that's an extreme case. An unproven 2nd round pick vs a proven vet is a little harder to judge, no?

PS, Sorry if the blah, blah, blah offended you. Didn't mean to discount your post.

 

[ckparrothead]

No, that's not what I'm saying. Of course you want rookies for youth and building the future( and cost efficiency) and you take the ones that have the most potential based on the info you have, which is basically their college careers. But it is always a calculated risk. I remember many said Emmitt Smith was too small, he turned out OK. Ryan Leaf, not so much.

My point is that a year of actual time in the NFL is probably a better predictor of future success than his career in college. We now have more data (and more significant data) in terms of predicting his NFL abilities. What we had before was data regarding his college abilities and a guess towards NFL ability.

And as for Bush, yeah, my jury is still out. But his potential upside, though unproven, is greater than a lot of proven vets (especially those on the downslope of their careers). But that's an extreme case. An unproven 2nd round pick vs a proven vet is a little harder to judge, no?

PS, Sorry if the blah, blah, blah offended you. Didn't mean to discount your post.

I dunno dude, tell that to Chad Johnson and Steve Smith. Neither did jack squat in the NFL their rookie years. Now they're two of the best receivers in the land.

 

[Oboy]

I dunno dude, tell that to Chad Johnson and Steve Smith. Neither did jack squat in the NFL their rookie years. Now they're two of the best receivers in the land.

While I agree the time in the NFL is a better data point. NOT ONE year! Especially depending on the position. There are not many DE's that do great in their first year. Heck, look no further than our own JT! He did not do much until his 3rd year.

 

[PhinFan0202]

That's great, but in reality, virtually every player in the NFL was the best or one of the best players on his college team, possibly for all time. Success in college does not equal success in the NFL. Ask Danny Wuerffel.

Ask Ryan Leaf...

 

[PhinFan0202]

Roth wasn't a good linebacker at Iowa. He was moved to DE because he wasn't good in space. I doubt he'll ever pull back and play linebacker in Miami. They're moving him the other direction, bulking him up to play 2-gap DE.

That's what i like to hear. Roth is going to be an integral part of our defense.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

I love the fact that our young players are really taking to Saban's system and what the older players are teaching. Roth adn Carey both got themselves in great shape, Manny I think may have caught on and pushed himself to lose his weight and get in better shape. This is always great news.

 

[OneHondo]

I dunno dude, tell that to Chad Johnson and Steve Smith. Neither did jack squat in the NFL their rookie years. Now they're two of the best receivers in the land.

Ckparrothea another excellent example of the point your trying to make is Drew Brees. Look at what he did his first couple of years. He was being written off by a lot of people as a bust before he had his brake out in San Diego.

 

[ckparrothead]

While I agree the time in the NFL is a better data point. NOT ONE year! Especially depending on the position. There are not many DE's that do great in their first year. Heck, look no further than our own JT! He did not do much until his 3rd year.

Actually JT had decent rookie and second years (14 sacks), but sucked in his 3rd year (2.5 sacks). At the time our DL "coach" was Cary Godette, who basically let Trace Armstrong do all the de-facto DL coaching.

Oh how I remember the arguments back then. Everyone was sooooo convinced that "the book had been written" on blocking JT and all you had to do was "muscle him" out of the way. LOL. Funny then, still funny now.

Clarence Brooks came in and taught JT some real moves, all the sudden JT explodes with 14.5 sacks.

I wonder though...if someone counted all the plays Roth was involved in...did a study to look at his production per play...I bet it would be as high as Kevin Carter. The guy only got one sack and his pass rush wasn't incredible but he was VERY strong against the run IMO.

 

[GCD960]

Last year, you didn't see the same motor, didn't see the same first step. Why? Because he was so nervous he was questioning everything he did...always questioning whether or not he had the right call. He's no Einstein with the books. As the year went on he became a teensy bit more comfortable, and he started making better plays.

What makes you think it was confidence? Did he say that?

 

[ckparrothead]

What makes you think it was confidence? Did he say that?

Well first off, you can see it on film. Confidence issues are something you can see, especially in a guy that had a noticeably different first step in college than as a pro.

Second, yes...he's said so many times.