Anyone here think Foles is better than Tannehill?

[superphin]

I started thinking hey what was RT W-L record in the games you referenced above?

A couple corrections in your data:

2015 week 5 was a bye week. So you mean weeks 6-12 or 7 games

2013 week 15 was a huge game for RT and a win over NE. So I'm sure you meant weeks 9-15 or 7 games here.

So adding up these stretches is a total of 30 of RT's 77 career starts.

In these 30 games RT has a W-L record of 20-10. A staggering 67% win rate.

This means in RTs other 47 career starts his record is an abysmal 17 wins and 30 losses.

What can we draw from this?

I am pretty sure if we studied many historical middling QBs like RT we would find stretches of play like this. Periods of strong play mixed with other periods of poor play. The issue with middling QBs like RT is their inconsistency week to week and stretch to stretch.

Maybe his supporting cast is why he is so inconsistent? I tend to think it's more to do with the fact he just isn't that great.

Bottom line in your post is you have uncovered a key clue: RT has had stretches of good play dating back to 2013, but somehow still hasn't put it together for a season. Why then do we think 2018 and beyond will be any different?

Yeah you're right its not week 5-12, I was going by his game log so it would be game 5-12 in 2015 and so forth.

Precisely why i said the 8 game stretch is overblown because dating back to 2013 he has had these 8 game stretches.

What's different about 2016 compared to all other years (2012-15) was the highest win% of his career in games decided by 7 points. Which to me is a big factor, because it shows you can be counted on in close games. Improving his 3rd down numbers, having his QB rating go from a career mid to high 70's on 3rd down to a career high 87.7, going from career (12-15) 6.3 y/a on 3rd downs to career high 7.5. Going from a RZ career comp% (12-15) of 55% to a career high 68%.

Also going from a career QB rating of 78 in the 4th QTR from 2012-15 and getting his previous high of 84.9 to go up to a 92.3 QB rating in the 4th QTR.

Those are the biggest differences between his 1st 4 years and his 5th year. His 5th year he put together an entire season of good 3rd down, RZ, 4th QTR, and close game play. Not to mention the deep ball improvement.

He posted career high's in all these categories. Does that make him a great QB? IDK..but it shows a lot more than an 8 game stretch which has been done 3 other times does. Those other 8 game stretches were similar but he's never put it together in these areas.

Am I sold on him? Absolutely not, I was hoping 2017 would show me if it was a fluke or not. I don't crown people after a game or a season. I need to see it for at least 2 years, which is why I hate that he didn't play in 2017. The most frustrating part in my opinion is that we don't know yet what he is. But no matter what he is going to be the starter for 2018 even if they draft a 1st rd QB. So either way we're going to find out in 2018.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Yeah you're right its not week 5-12, I was going by his game log so it would be game 5-12 in 2015 and so forth.

Precisely why i said the 8 game stretch is overblown because dating back to 2013 he has had these 8 game stretches.

What's different about 2016 compared to all other years (2012-15) was the highest win% of his career in games decided by 7 points. Which to me is a big factor, because it shows you can be counted on in close games. Improving his 3rd down numbers, having his QB rating go from a career mid to high 70's on 3rd down to a career high 87.7, going from career (12-15) 6.3 y/a on 3rd downs to career high 7.5. Going from a RZ career comp% (12-15) of 55% to a career high 68%.

Also going from a career QB rating of 78 in the 4th QTR from 2012-15 and getting his previous high of 84.9 to go up to a 92.3 QB rating in the 4th QTR.

Those are the biggest differences between his 1st 4 years and his 5th year. His 5th year he put together an entire season of good 3rd down, RZ, 4th QTR, and close game play. Not to mention the deep ball improvement.

He posted career high's in all these categories. Does that make him a great QB? IDK..but it shows a lot more than an 8 game stretch which has been done 3 other times does. Those other 8 game stretches were similar but he's never put it together in these areas.

Am I sold on him? Absolutely not, I was hoping 2017 would show me if it was a fluke or not. I don't crown people after a game or a season. I need to see it for at least 2 years, which is why I hate that he didn't play in 2017. The most frustrating part in my opinion is that we don't know yet what he is. But no matter what he is going to be the starter for 2018 even if they draft a 1st rd QB. So either way we're going to find out in 2018.

I agree with everything you wrote here and will add one thing. While he didn't have numbers that were as good in previous seasons, he had average to decent numbers in some stretches with absolutely horrific pass protection. The fact that he did not implode under the duress that he endured is almost as telling as the 2016 season. That is why I am sold on him. I was convinced that his numbers would improve greatly with better coaching and better protection and that turned out to be correct.

 

[Padfoot]

Tannehill is more individually talented than Foles. Not even a question.

Why do you think the QB play didnt drop off from Wentz --> Foles???? hmmm

What you saw in the SB is a COMPLETE TEAM in a TEAM GAME.

Coaching, scheme, and game planning (as well as TEAM execution) sets up any qb up for success.

Bc the Eagles TEAM has been executing all year, including a very good OLINE.

I cant believe some of these responses. I guess Trent Dilfer is more talented than Tannehill too.

Dilfer completed 12 passes for 153 yds 1 td in his SB win. Foles completed 28 for 373 and 3 tds. I don't think Foles is better than Tannehill and I said why already but to compare the question to asking if Dilfer is better is a bit much. While a good team does make a QB better, at the end of the day the eagles oline and defense didn't make those passes, Foles did. If you swap Foles with 2000 Trent Dilfer, the Eagles lose that game.

 

[Third Eye]

Dilfer completed 12 passes for 153 yds 1 td in his SB win. Foles completed 28 for 373 and 3 tds. I don't think Foles is better than Tannehill and I said why already but to compare the question to asking if Dilfer is better is a bit much. While a good team does make a QB better, at the end of the day the eagles oline and defense didn't make those passes, Foles did. If you swap Foles with 2000 Trent Dilfer, the Eagles lose that game.

What if you swap Foles with RT in the Super Bowl Game? This was the original question anyway.

I have my answer.

 

[AvogadrosNumber]

7 years with Tannehill and we're still talking about some 8 game stretch 2 years ago?

I'm sure I can pull up some similar 8 game stretch where Fitzpatrick was generating MVP stats. Give me any Qb that's started 75+ games and we can find an 8 game stretch that will wow. 75+ games and your bound to come up with a handful of elite plays and 4th quarter comebacks. That's built into the sample size.

Foles just won Super Bowl MVP. The next time Tannehill wins a meaningful game will be his first.

 

[superphin]

7 years with Tannehill and we're still talking about some 8 game stretch 2 years ago?

I'm sure I can pull up some similar 8 game stretch where Fitzpatrick was generating MVP stats. Give me any Qb that's started 75+ games and we can find an 8 game stretch that will wow. 75+ games and your bound to come up with a handful of elite plays and 4th quarter comebacks. That's built into the sample size.

Foles just won Super Bowl MVP. The next time Tannehill wins a meaningful game will be his first.

I always found the meaningful game comment odd. In a sport that only has 16 games...isnt every game a meaningful game? Isn't every win a step towards the playoffs and every loss a step towards the living room couch? Where 2 wins can be the difference between 10-6 or 8-8, playoffs or sitting at home. I don't think theres a coach or player who goes into any game and thinks to themselves, eh this game means nothing. Unless they have HFA/playoff spot secured.

Its not like the NBA or MLB where you can have 8 game losing streaks to start the year and still end up with a winning record.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

I always found the meaningful game comment odd. In a sport that only has 16 games...isnt every game a meaningful game? Isn't every win a step towards the playoffs and every loss a step towards the living room couch? Where 2 wins can be the difference between 10-6 or 8-8, playoffs or sitting at home. I don't think theres a coach or player who goes into any game and thinks to themselves, eh this game means nothing. Unless they have HFA/playoff spot secured.

Its not like the NBA or MLB where you can have 8 game losing streaks to start the year and still end up with a winning record.

POST OF THE YEAR!!!!!!!!!

I've been making this exact point for years. Every game is meaningful until you've been eliminated from the playoffs or have locked up your playoff position. This is especially true when you are in a division with the Patriots. Every single loss is a huge hurdle to overcome.

In 2016 at 1-4, I can guarantee that the pressure was on and the team responded with a very good stretch of MEANINGFUL games.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

What if you swap Foles with RT in the Super Bowl Game? This was the original question anyway.

I have my answer.

With that kind of protection, Tannehill carves up a defense.

 

[dolphintodd]

I will say it again....

8 game stretch = 3 200 yard rushing games. A special teams TD late in 4th quarter against the mighty jets where the offense scored once. And of course kikos interception return for 6. And then 3 games against top 10 picking teams. So sad this is what that guy hangs his hat on.

 

[NBP81]

I will say it again....

8 game stretch = 3 200 yard rushing games. A special teams TD late in 4th quarter against the mighty jets where the offense scored once. And of course kikos interception return for 6. And then 3 games against top 10 picking teams. So sad this is what that guy hangs his hat on.

Nope,2 x200yds rushing games, the 3rd one wasnt in that stretch... BUT 4x games where we didnt even rush for 100 yds as a team and 1 at 106 yds... So Tannehill got great rushing support in only 2 games during that stretch...

 

[lurking]

I will say it again....

8 game stretch = 3 200 yard rushing games. A special teams TD late in 4th quarter against the mighty jets where the offense scored once. And of course kikos interception return for 6. And then 3 games against top 10 picking teams. So sad this is what that guy hangs his hat on.

Thanks for making the point that it's a team win or lose, and not an individual win or lose.

 

[Dolph N.Fan]

I always found the meaningful game comment odd. In a sport that only has 16 games...isnt every game a meaningful game? Isn't every win a step towards the playoffs and every loss a step towards the living room couch? Where 2 wins can be the difference between 10-6 or 8-8, playoffs or sitting at home. I don't think theres a coach or player who goes into any game and thinks to themselves, eh this game means nothing. Unless they have HFA/playoff spot secured.

Its not like the NBA or MLB where you can have 8 game losing streaks to start the year and still end up with a winning record.

Don’t play dumb. You know what a meaningful game in the nfl is. Everyone knows the games with heightened pressure are in December. That’s usually when Tannehill and the dolphins fail epically.

 

[FINOMINAL]

I was a Foles fan before the draft, back when there were a lot of “Suck For Luck” talk I started a thread on Finheaven called “Roll For Foles”, back in November 2011.

“How about we get on a roll, win a few games this year and take Nick Foles? I think he’s going to rise up the draft board after there’s a decent highlight reel on him and he shows off the gun at the combine. He has as much upside as anybody, really.”

Foles was a stud coming out of college with that 6’5” 240 size back when everybody was looking for the next Ben Roethlisberger. I would say Nick Foles is still better than Tannehill today. He just won MVP of the Super Bowl, so any projection for Tannehill being better is just hope and wishful thinking.

 

[NBP81]

Don’t play dumb. You know what a meaningful game in the nfl is. Everyone knows the games with heightened pressure are in December. That’s usually when Tannehill and the dolphins fail epically.

When you're 1-4, October is the new December...

 

[dolphintodd]

Thanks for making the point that it's a team win or lose, and not an individual win or lose.

Then why do people post that he was so great during this 8 game winning streak?