Article absolutely KILLING Chambers

[Fin-Loco]

Someone needs to email that to Chambers. It's up to him to prove his doubters wrong......and so far he isn't.

 

[jdang307]

The system is not flawed,

says who? You? Well then the QB rating system isn't either. But it is, everyone can admit that (especially Daunte haters).

I am heading out to work so don't have time for a lengthy post however the simplest way to explain the ranking system is you have

Reciever A with 200 Attempts and 1200 Yards
Reciever B with 100 Attempts and 1200 Yards

Which reciever is better?

Receiver B of course.

The system accounts for efficiency. The better players do more with less. Yes it is impressive to see Chambers have an 1100 Yard season but when you consider that he had 166 Attempts to do it whereas Santana Moss put up 1483 Yards with only 134 Attempts it does not seem nearly as impressive.

You know it's too bad the creators themselves admit it to being flawed.

DVOA is still far away from the point where we can use it to represent the value of a player separate from the performance of his ten teammates that are also involved in each play

How can one sit there and claim it's not flawed when they themselves in their explanation say so? I jsut don't get it.

 

[DolfinDave]

I am not sure the system they use at footballoutsiders.com is necessarily flawed. I think flawed is too strong a word. It is what it is. It is comparing players to other players while taking into account certain things like the opponent they are playing. Since that is its objective, I think it does a pretty good job of that. I don't think they are trying to say that their rankings show exactly how good these players are and this is how they rank in the league exactly according to where they fall on the rankings. The bottom line is to show us how they compare to other players. I don't think it takes into account, or even tries to take into account the other 10 players on the same side of the ball helping the player do what he does. That would be very difficult to do and I think they realize that.

The problem here is that the guy who wrote that article got a little carried away with his distaste for Chambers. He made his point and backed it up well when he said Chambers is not an elite receiver and is toward the bottom half of the number 1 WRs in the league. That is a legitimate claim that is backed up by a ton of facts. He got a little carried away with calling him the worst receiver in the league and people on this thread got a little carried away with that comment as well. So we need to chill out a bit and take that system and the article for what they are. The system is comparing players using pretty good measures, probably the best that is available since we can't measure the effect of the other 10 guys on offense. And the article, though it got a bit carried away, was simply pointing out that Chambers is not quite as productive as other number 1 WRs and it isn't totally the fault of the players around him.

 

[jdang307]

I am not sure the system they use at footballoutsiders.com is necessarily flawed. I think flawed is too strong a word. It is what it is.

This is true. It isn't flawed in the sense of what they are trying to use it as. It is flawed, however, in the sense some are trying to say it is a direct measure of an individual WR's performance, which footballoutsiders themselves say it can't.

The problem here is that the guy who wrote that article got a little carried away with his distaste for Chambers. He made his point and backed it up well when he said Chambers is not an elite receiver and is toward the bottom half of the number 1 WRs in the league. That is a legitimate claim that is backed up by a ton of facts.

I agree wholeheartedly with this. Chambers isn't an elite #1. How can anyone argue that? He has the talent to be, but just isn't. If he turns our heads next year with a healthy Cpep then we can discuss, but as of now he isn't. But he isn't a #2 or #3 on most teams either. He is just a solid #1.

 

[Superself]

This is true. It isn't flawed in the sense of what they are trying to use it as. It is flawed, however, in the sense some are trying to say it is a direct measure of an individual WR's performance, which footballoutsiders themselves say it can't.


I agree wholeheartedly with this. Chambers isn't an elite #1. How can anyone argue that? He has the talent to be, but just isn't. If he turns our heads next year with a healthy Cpep then we can discuss, but as of now he isn't. But he isn't a #2 or #3 on most teams either. He is just a solid #1.

You wouldn't know it from his production this year.
Like I stated earlier, the Dolphin's organization didn't give Chambers a new contract expecting this kind of production from him.

 

[DolfinDave]

This is true. It isn't flawed in the sense of what they are trying to use it as. It is flawed, however, in the sense some are trying to say it is a direct measure of an individual WR's performance, which footballoutsiders themselves say it can't.


I agree wholeheartedly with this. Chambers isn't an elite #1. How can anyone argue that? He has the talent to be, but just isn't. If he turns our heads next year with a healthy Cpep then we can discuss, but as of now he isn't. But he isn't a #2 or #3 on most teams either. He is just a solid #1.

I also agree with this, somewhat wholeheartedly.:D

 

[Fineas]

This is old, well-treaded ground. Catch % is a terrible measure of a WR because it is so closely related to the QB's accuracy and performance. Admittdely, there has been a deviation this year, in which Chambers' catch % has fallen significantly below the completion % of the Dolphin QBs. I think that is largely attributable to the fact that he gets a larger % of the passes thrown to him downfield and, since Joey has never been particularly adept at completing passes downfield, it hurts Chambers catch %.

That a receiver's production has a lot to do with the players around him, especially the QB, is (I think) indisputable. I don't think anyone can really argue against any of the propositions below.

1. The more passes a team throws the more opportunities a receiver has to catch passes.

2. The more time the QB has to find a receiver, the more likely the QB will throw it to someone who is open.

3. The more time the QB has to find a receiver, the more time the receiver has to get open.

4. The more accurate the QB, the more likely the pass will be thrown so that it is catchable.

5. The better the QB is at reading defenses, the more likely he is to find an open receiver.

6. The more well designed the passing play is, the better chance the receiver has to get a coverage mismatch.

7. The more talented the teams' other receivers, the better able the WR will be to avoid double-teams.

The Fins' completion percentage was dead last in the NFL in 2005. It was dead last in 2004. And it was 22nd in 2003. That has a lot to do with why his catch % was so low in those years. If you look at the No. 1 receivers on the teams with the lowest completion %, you will see similarly low catch %.

Below are the 2005 numbers:

Miami 52.3% Chambers 49.4%
Chicago 52.4% Muhammad 47.1%
SF 52.4% Lloyd 44%
NYG 52.7% Burress 45.8%
Oak 53.5% Moss 48.4%

Now for the 2006 numbers:

Oak 50.6% Moss 43%
Tenn 49.3% Bennett 46.8%
Atl. 51.1% Jenkins 48.5%
TB 54.4% Galloway 43.1%
Chi 54.2% Muhammed 54% (Berrian 49.3%)

On the season the Fins have completed only 45/128 passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield (35%). Of those passes, 54 were thrown to Chambers and only 44 to Booker and Welker combined. Of passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield (the Fins are only 9/48 -- 18.75% completion on those passes), 25 have been thrown to Chambers and only 16 to Welker and Booker combined. So part of the issue is the fact that we are throwing more to Chambers downfield and have not been good at completing those passes. That said, on the relatively rare occasions when we have thrown downfield to Booker and Welker, they have caught a higher percentage. That may be due to the fact that they are generally being covered by lesser CBs or something else. If you look at the splits of the incomplete passes thrown to Chambers and to Welker/Booker, no real clear trends emerge. For reasons I can't really explain, WElker and Booker have caught much higher percentages of passes thrown while the QB was blitzed or under pressure. Chambers has been overthrown at a much higher rate and has had passes defensed at a much higher rate. He's also been "targeted" on more passes that have been thrown away.

My conclusion is that much of Chambers low catch % is due to QB play, but there is also something else that has been contributing to the problem that is his fault.

 

[phinphan11]

Chambers worst in the leaque? I don't agree either. But Saban said it best last season. He's a "decent" receiver".

 

[jdang307]

You wouldn't know it from his production this year.
Like I stated earlier, the Dolphin's organization didn't give Chambers a new contract expecting this kind of production from him.

I agree. We need a change at QB:wink:

Excellent post Fineas, and

"This is old, well-treaded ground. Catch % is a terrible measure of a WR because it is so closely related to the QB's accuracy and performance."

Excellent point.

 

[Disnardo]

What is it that makes it Flaw???

If people would read what the formula actually counted they'd realize it isnt meant to show the performance of an individual player but the performance of an entire team. That would account for why Chambers could put great numbers last year but still be rated really low on this scale.

Did you miss the part where Booker and Welker were rated ahead of Chambers last year even when Chambers went "ALL Pro"...:wink:

Welker was rated 43, and Booker was rated 47, while Chambers was 62 at the Pro-Bowl...

This year Booker is rated 29 and Welker is 34 showing improvements from the year before...

My question to you is this...Isn't Welker and Booker part of the same Offensive team as Chris???? :confused::confused: :confused:

If the answer is yes, then why have they performed better with the same "team Offense?"...the formula does not seem to show a flaw in this case...

If the answer is no...then I rest my case...:wink:

 

[Dmancari23]

Chambers=2nd most overrated Dolphin behind Ronnie Brown

 

[DonShula84]

:sleep:

 

[cnc66]

Chambers=2nd most overrated Dolphin behind Ronnie Brown

always the troll... nothing of substance

 

[Dmancari23]

always the troll... nothing of substance

Yet you keep responding. We've talked about this before. I don't have to share your opinion. I don't call you names for your opinions. I respect your opinions while not agreeing with them. It's not necessary to be on the same page on every part of the organization to still share the same love of the team. You gotta give it up, because I'm not going anywhere.

 

[Bumrush]

always the troll... nothing of substance

I don't think anyone on these boards that loves the team can be classified as a troll. Until the franchise improves and starts to make a real playoff push with Super Bowl possibilities, everyone on the team, especially on the offensive side of the ball should be looked at. Just because someone thinks that Ronnie Brown is a bust as a number 2 overall does not make him a troll. It's called having a different opinion than the masses here.

We should all be objective about the Dolphins. It is the only way to ensure future success. If the coaches had the same attitude we had in here the roster would stay the same, except for a few players that we all universally hate.

Let me propose a theoretical scenario - Go to every other teams forum and ask them to list the top 15 RB's/Receivers in the league- I can guarantee you that neither Ronnie Brown or Chambers make that list. Sometimes you have to take the glasses off to realize that our offensive superstars on this team have yet to live up to the potential and greatness so many of us in here are ready to grant them simply because they are Dolphin players.