CNNSI: Flynn Ready to Lead Franchise | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

CNNSI: Flynn Ready to Lead Franchise

I just watched the highlights of that GB/Detroit game. Some nice throws, but a whole lot of yards after the catch, and this could easily have been a 2 or 3 TD game, not 6. The 1st TD I saw was Ryan Grant taking a dump off screen 80 yards. Donald Driver turned a relatively short pass into a TD. The Lions secondary looked crappy and allowed what should have been nice completions turn into touchdowns. 4 yard TD pass to Finley, nothing special.

i'd like to watch this whole game- nice deep pass to James Jones, nice TD pass to Jordy Nelson. But was I blown away by Matt Flynn? No. Was I really, really impreseed? No. This strikes me as a similar situation to last year- if getting Kyle Orton is going to cost a ton of money (and a high draft pick in that case) and it's a lateral move as per Chad Henne, is it worth it? No, as Stephen Ross said directly.

I don't see anything terribly special about Matt Flynn, and I'm not sure that he's any better than Matt Moore. I sure as hell would rather draft Brandon Weeden than sign Flynn. In the absence of Weeden I'm not against signing Flynn- what I am against is signing him to huge money that could be spent elsewhere and having him be handed the starting job. From what I've seen, Matt Moore deserves it more than Flynn does.

Could an SEC guy out there or specifically an LSU guy answer me this: why was Matt Flynn, after a great high school career and leading LSU to a national championship, drafted in the 7th round? What were his implied flaws and weaknesses? Many as I recall viewed him as free agent material out of college. Was it that he rode the bench behind Jamarcus Russell for so long? It must have been something- and personally I'm sure as hell not blown away by Flynn's arm. I'm guessing that CNNSI wrote a nice piece on AJ Feeley as well after the trade, pimping him and his bright future in Miami- it's a nice feel good story, same as Flynn. If Flynn comes to Miami I hope that he does great- I just don't see throwing big money at this guy with 2 games under his belt and a so-so arm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHjJ2lipORQ


1. David DeCastro

2. Brandon Weeden

3. Joe Adams

A couple of things.

First off let's talk about LSU and him coming out as a 7th rounder.

Yes, sitting behind Jamarcus Russell and only having ONE year of starting when you're coming out does indeed take its toll. He didn't have statistically the season he could have if he'd had more experience than just that one year. Why does Tom Brady go in the 6th round? Sometimes it just happens, the unwritten rules that the NFL has had in place for so long are not there because they're full proof, they're there because of percentages. You observe those rules ACCEPTING that every now and then a Tom Brady (well, hopefully not someone as ridiculously good as Tom Brady) slips through the cracks.

I think when people talk about how Brady slipped through the cracks, they talk about how sometimes a conflagration circumstances, ignoring intangibles like competitiveness, and lack of overwhelming tangibles...can snooker the field. Particularly the competitiveness, take a look at that issue. Flynn only lost two games in the year he started for LSU. He lost to Kentucky in triple overtime, going score for score in the overtime period but when Woodson tossed in a go-ahead TD in triple overtime, the Tigers called 3 straight run plays with Jacob Hester and then on 4th & 2 called another run play to Charles Scott. You've got a quarterback that's been helping you match score for score but in the end you don't give him the chance to keep trying to win the game.

The second game they lost was to Arkansas, again in triple overtime. This time how did he lose? Well for starters the man separated his shoulder in the second half and finished the game despite having to go to the locker room for treatment. Again he matched score for score. He ran a 12 yard touchdown in single overtime. He had a nice 12 yard completion that set up the touchdown in double overtime. But then in triple overtime the Razorbacks took a touchdown lead and then CONVERTED the two-point conversion. Matt Flynn threw a touchdown to Brandon LaFell to give them a chance, but the two-point conversion failed. Tough, competitive game from a guy with a separated shoulder, forced him to miss the SEC Championship Game against Tennessee.

It strikes me how similar the two are, though...in the toughness/competitiveness category. That toughness/competitiveness went ignored in both players. The decision-makers out there seemed to want to ignore that Flynn started the year 29 of 46 (75%) for 345 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 TDs and 0 INTs with 1 more TD on the ground...before taking an ankle injury against Virginia Tech which forced him to miss the Middle Tennessee game. He came back the next week against their next "real" opponent South Carolina but there's no doubting he struggled with the injury. Over that next 4 game stretch struggling with the ankle, he was 55 of 110 (50%) for 602 yards (5.5 YPA), 3 TDs and 4 INTs with 0 more rushing TDs.

He started to get healthy and lo and behold, he played better. Against Auburn, Alabama, La Tech, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Ohio State, he was 118 of 203 (58%) for 1286 yards (7.2 YPA), 16 TDs and 7 INTs with 3 more TDs on the ground. He saved a 19 of 27 for 176 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT performance for the NCAA Championship Game against Ohio State.

But when you've got a guy that has only started one year, doesn't blow you away with tangibles like Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Perriloux who both played with Flynn at LSU, sometimes you don't like to pay attention to things like that. You don't like to pay attention to circumstances. You need a guy that just blew your effing mind in his time as a starter, because there's so little of that tape out there.

Sometimes Giacomo wins the Kentucky Derby and sometimes guys like Tom Brady and Trent Green end up good quarterbacks. It happens.

I can tell you, coming into the Detroit 2011 game, I was a guy that did NOT particularly like Matt Flynn. Why didn't I like Flynn heading into that game? Because I'd dissected the New England game back in 2010 and where everyone was just completely fawning after the guy because of his 100 passer rating against NE...I saw a guy that made some bad decisions in that game and got away with some, didn't get away with others. Also, I have high standards for accuracy when I'm looking at a franchise guy. I knew that he went through stretches of inaccuracy in college (though to be honest I'd forgotten he fought through a bad ankle injury there), and I was looking at the NE game and I didn't see my usual standard for percentage of catchable balls. Put that together with bad decisions/mistakes and I thought, hey there's no taking away that he did well out there...he had a 100.2 passer rating against a defense that allowed everyone else a 78.5 passer rating, led his offense to 27 points against a team that was allowing everyone else 18.6 points per game...but there were so many people making out like he just had this huge breakout performance that shows he's the next big thing, and I just didn't think he'd shown that yet.

Then there was the Detroit game, and I watched the whole thing several times, not just highlights. I was impressed with his accuracy, which was up to my expectations for a franchise starter. I was impressed with how he spun the ball. I was impressed with his decision-making as he'd cut down his questionable decisions considerably, yet was still unquestionably aggressive. I liked his mobility, showed the ability to throw accurately on the run either to the right or left. He had this great performance against the Lions even though the Lions absolutely were going all out trying to win that game, and there were a lot of players on the Packers that were NOT doing that, treating it like the meaningless game that it was.

What that game made me do, because no matter how askance I viewed it I could not do anything but admit it was an utterly fantastic performance, was I had to go back and look at other performances in 2010 and 2011. I had to go back and take a look at what happened to him in college. I had to go back and watch preseason footage.

What I found is a quarterback that was much closer to the guy I saw in the Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions than the guy I thought he was prior to that game. You mentioned Kyle Orton as a comparison. It's a good point to bring up because I think it's incumbent upon us to show why he's NOT a Kyle Orton, and I think based on the tape I've watched of him, I've seen that. When I watched all kinds of tape of Orton back in 2010, it was obvious to me that he would be an upgrade on Chad Henne...but not a great one. He threw a good deep ball. He had more aggressive decision making. But no matter what, you couldn't get around two weaknesses. The first was his streakiness. Does Matt Flynn have streakiness to that degree? I've not seen it yet but it's good to note we don't have much tape on him so who knows. But Orton had streakiness where he could go stretches of 20 throws where you wouldn't want to touch the guy with a 20 foot pole. He was significantly more streaky than I'm used to seeing in quarterbacks. The other thing was Orton's consistent weakness in handling pressure and throwing/running well when he has some pressure coming in on him. I said at the time, this guy has almost zero improvisation ability. I say 'almost' just because every now and then he finds it in him to flip the ball to a back that happens to be a few feet away from him, and that could be a big gain every now and then...but that was the extent of it. The rest of the time, forget about it. You get the pressure in there, the play's over. No quarterback likes pressure and none of them look awesome when forced to deal with it all the time, but Orton consistently showed almost zero ability with it.

Matt Flynn doesn't have that weakness and I think that's a real key difference in the NFL. People forget that Flynn is around a 4.7x type of runner. He always moved well, even in college. He always showed the ability to scramble. He still shows that. He can roll right or left and still throw the ball very accurately. He can convert first downs when the defense gives him a certain look and leaves the running lanes wide open. He can scramble away from pressure and outrun some of the heavier defensive linemen as they come screaming in at him.

I don't see where people come up with these arm strength complaints, to be honest. He spins a great ball, truth be told. I've only ever seen one throw in all the tape I've seen come off his hands and I'm like whoa, what was that? I just see a guy that accurately throws the ball, runs the offense, reads the defense, throws with anticipation, spins the ball well and places it well, scrambles and handles reasonable amounts of pressure, and makes pretty impressive decisions after the snap about where, when and HOW to throw the football in order to achieve the best outcome. Add on top of that the competitiveness that he showed in college which led him to win a National Championship, and to win that Detroit game in 2011, despite several teammates that had mentally checked out during the game, facing against a Detroit team that wanted to win that game very badly so they could face Atlanta instead of New Orleans...I think you really have something.

I like Brandon Weeden. I waffle on whether Weeden or Flynn are the best options. I think Ryan Tannehill runs 3rd place behind those two. But if Matt Flynn comes here I think that's a good get. I see a pretty impressive quarterback prospect. I don't see anywhere close to a Kyle Orton or a Kevin Kolb. You could see either of those guys coming a mile away.
 
as do i, and when i watch matt flynn play, i dont see a qb who is worth 7-10 mill a year and being handed without competition a starting job.

just my opinion though, if people see differently, then thats ok, everyone is entitled to an opinion. i just dont see whats so special about him.

as you said, you base your opinions on watching them play, so by that, you should have seen that despite that fantastic numbers vs det, he didnt look as dominating as those numbers perceived him to be.

I saw a player that played a very, very, very good game of football. About as good a game as a quarterback could be reasonably expected to have in those circumstances. The production was not coincidental.
 
QB's in this league cost money. Even the backups make 3-4 million a year. We were able to sign Moore for peanuts because he was a catastrophe in Carolina and no one else wanted him. 7-10 million is the going rate for a starting QB. I also don't think Flynn will ever be great but I think he could be the next Matt Hasselbeck who is pretty good but not great. That's good enough for me right now.

And that's a backup QB that you do not intend to let even compete for the starting job. If you're signing a backup that may actually compete for the starting job you're talking more along the lines of $5 million a year. If you're signing a starter, a guy that you know is going to start, then $7 million a year is what gets you in the door if the guy is old or has something else undesirable about him. If it's a young guy and you're pegging him to start, $10 million a year is more likely. Any less than that and it's not a guy that you're pegging as the starter, it's a guy that either has a young player that might beat him out, or has to compete in some way, etc. A GOOD, non-questionable starter, who isn't old as dirt...that's going to cost you $15 to $20 million a year.

It is what it is. They don't call it the most important position in the game for nothing.
 
based on what is he ready to start tomorrow?

he has only started 2 games in his career like u mentioned, both not exactly the best defensive backfields in the nfl, and he has never started consecutive games in his career.

starting qbs are made based on consistency, he has not had a consistent career so far. he has played in 3 games so far for the majority of them.

in 2010 vs the lions, he stunk it up, then the pats the following week, he played solid, but they lost both of those games, and now week 17 in a totally meaningless game with no pressure for him he had a great game.

maybe he will, maybe he wont be a good starter in the nfl, but im sorry, i just dont see based on his small sample size, where he has already shown he can start tomorrow in the nfl.


My thoughts exactly. I smell another A.J. Feeley here.
 
Suppose Moore beats him out? Look bring him as the starter because you're gonna pay that kind of loot he doesn't need competition.
 
Man are you sick, flynn won a game for greenbay not the dolphins, how about 6 years 32 million 18 million guaranteed, and if he walks and balks who cares.
 
A couple of things.

First off let's talk about LSU and him coming out as a 7th rounder.

Yes, sitting behind Jamarcus Russell and only having ONE year of starting when you're coming out does indeed take its toll. He didn't have statistically the season he could have if he'd had more experience than just that one year. Why does Tom Brady go in the 6th round? Sometimes it just happens, the unwritten rules that the NFL has had in place for so long are not there because they're full proof, they're there because of percentages. You observe those rules ACCEPTING that every now and then a Tom Brady (well, hopefully not someone as ridiculously good as Tom Brady) slips through the cracks.

I think when people talk about how Brady slipped through the cracks, they talk about how sometimes a conflagration circumstances, ignoring intangibles like competitiveness, and lack of overwhelming tangibles...can snooker the field. Particularly the competitiveness, take a look at that issue. Flynn only lost two games in the year he started for LSU. He lost to Kentucky in triple overtime, going score for score in the overtime period but when Woodson tossed in a go-ahead TD in triple overtime, the Tigers called 3 straight run plays with Jacob Hester and then on 4th & 2 called another run play to Charles Scott. You've got a quarterback that's been helping you match score for score but in the end you don't give him the chance to keep trying to win the game.

The second game they lost was to Arkansas, again in triple overtime. This time how did he lose? Well for starters the man separated his shoulder in the second half and finished the game despite having to go to the locker room for treatment. Again he matched score for score. He ran a 12 yard touchdown in single overtime. He had a nice 12 yard completion that set up the touchdown in double overtime. But then in triple overtime the Razorbacks took a touchdown lead and then CONVERTED the two-point conversion. Matt Flynn threw a touchdown to Brandon LaFell to give them a chance, but the two-point conversion failed. Tough, competitive game from a guy with a separated shoulder, forced him to miss the SEC Championship Game against Tennessee.

It strikes me how similar the two are, though...in the toughness/competitiveness category. That toughness/competitiveness went ignored in both players. The decision-makers out there seemed to want to ignore that Flynn started the year 29 of 46 (75%) for 345 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 TDs and 0 INTs with 1 more TD on the ground...before taking an ankle injury against Virginia Tech which forced him to miss the Middle Tennessee game. He came back the next week against their next "real" opponent South Carolina but there's no doubting he struggled with the injury. Over that next 4 game stretch struggling with the ankle, he was 55 of 110 (50%) for 602 yards (5.5 YPA), 3 TDs and 4 INTs with 0 more rushing TDs.

He started to get healthy and lo and behold, he played better. Against Auburn, Alabama, La Tech, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Ohio State, he was 118 of 203 (58%) for 1286 yards (7.2 YPA), 16 TDs and 7 INTs with 3 more TDs on the ground. He saved a 19 of 27 for 176 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT performance for the NCAA Championship Game against Ohio State.

But when you've got a guy that has only started one year, doesn't blow you away with tangibles like Jamarcus Russell or Ryan Perriloux who both played with Flynn at LSU, sometimes you don't like to pay attention to things like that. You don't like to pay attention to circumstances. You need a guy that just blew your effing mind in his time as a starter, because there's so little of that tape out there.

Sometimes Giacomo wins the Kentucky Derby and sometimes guys like Tom Brady and Trent Green end up good quarterbacks. It happens.

I can tell you, coming into the Detroit 2011 game, I was a guy that did NOT particularly like Matt Flynn. Why didn't I like Flynn heading into that game? Because I'd dissected the New England game back in 2010 and where everyone was just completely fawning after the guy because of his 100 passer rating against NE...I saw a guy that made some bad decisions in that game and got away with some, didn't get away with others. Also, I have high standards for accuracy when I'm looking at a franchise guy. I knew that he went through stretches of inaccuracy in college (though to be honest I'd forgotten he fought through a bad ankle injury there), and I was looking at the NE game and I didn't see my usual standard for percentage of catchable balls. Put that together with bad decisions/mistakes and I thought, hey there's no taking away that he did well out there...he had a 100.2 passer rating against a defense that allowed everyone else a 78.5 passer rating, led his offense to 27 points against a team that was allowing everyone else 18.6 points per game...but there were so many people making out like he just had this huge breakout performance that shows he's the next big thing, and I just didn't think he'd shown that yet.

Then there was the Detroit game, and I watched the whole thing several times, not just highlights. I was impressed with his accuracy, which was up to my expectations for a franchise starter. I was impressed with how he spun the ball. I was impressed with his decision-making as he'd cut down his questionable decisions considerably, yet was still unquestionably aggressive. I liked his mobility, showed the ability to throw accurately on the run either to the right or left. He had this great performance against the Lions even though the Lions absolutely were going all out trying to win that game, and there were a lot of players on the Packers that were NOT doing that, treating it like the meaningless game that it was.

What that game made me do, because no matter how askance I viewed it I could not do anything but admit it was an utterly fantastic performance, was I had to go back and look at other performances in 2010 and 2011. I had to go back and take a look at what happened to him in college. I had to go back and watch preseason footage.

What I found is a quarterback that was much closer to the guy I saw in the Week 17 game against the Detroit Lions than the guy I thought he was prior to that game. You mentioned Kyle Orton as a comparison. It's a good point to bring up because I think it's incumbent upon us to show why he's NOT a Kyle Orton, and I think based on the tape I've watched of him, I've seen that. When I watched all kinds of tape of Orton back in 2010, it was obvious to me that he would be an upgrade on Chad Henne...but not a great one. He threw a good deep ball. He had more aggressive decision making. But no matter what, you couldn't get around two weaknesses. The first was his streakiness. Does Matt Flynn have streakiness to that degree? I've not seen it yet but it's good to note we don't have much tape on him so who knows. But Orton had streakiness where he could go stretches of 20 throws where you wouldn't want to touch the guy with a 20 foot pole. He was significantly more streaky than I'm used to seeing in quarterbacks. The other thing was Orton's consistent weakness in handling pressure and throwing/running well when he has some pressure coming in on him. I said at the time, this guy has almost zero improvisation ability. I say 'almost' just because every now and then he finds it in him to flip the ball to a back that happens to be a few feet away from him, and that could be a big gain every now and then...but that was the extent of it. The rest of the time, forget about it. You get the pressure in there, the play's over. No quarterback likes pressure and none of them look awesome when forced to deal with it all the time, but Orton consistently showed almost zero ability with it.

Matt Flynn doesn't have that weakness and I think that's a real key difference in the NFL. People forget that Flynn is around a 4.7x type of runner. He always moved well, even in college. He always showed the ability to scramble. He still shows that. He can roll right or left and still throw the ball very accurately. He can convert first downs when the defense gives him a certain look and leaves the running lanes wide open. He can scramble away from pressure and outrun some of the heavier defensive linemen as they come screaming in at him.

I don't see where people come up with these arm strength complaints, to be honest. He spins a great ball, truth be told. I've only ever seen one throw in all the tape I've seen come off his hands and I'm like whoa, what was that? I just see a guy that accurately throws the ball, runs the offense, reads the defense, throws with anticipation, spins the ball well and places it well, scrambles and handles reasonable amounts of pressure, and makes pretty impressive decisions after the snap about where, when and HOW to throw the football in order to achieve the best outcome. Add on top of that the competitiveness that he showed in college which led him to win a National Championship, and to win that Detroit game in 2011, despite several teammates that had mentally checked out during the game, facing against a Detroit team that wanted to win that game very badly so they could face Atlanta instead of New Orleans...I think you really have something.

I like Brandon Weeden. I waffle on whether Weeden or Flynn are the best options. I think Ryan Tannehill runs 3rd place behind those two. But if Matt Flynn comes here I think that's a good get. I see a pretty impressive quarterback prospect. I don't see anywhere close to a Kyle Orton or a Kevin Kolb. You could see either of those guys coming a mile away.[/QUOTE]


No offense, but I'm a little confused by that last part concerning Orton- if I recall correctly you were banging the drums hard to sign Orton and cough up both a high draft pick and a hefty contract for his services and rated him head and shoulders above Chad Henne and Matt Moore.

Interesting points about Flynn in college, but one sticks with me in particular- dude sounds like he was injured an awful lot in his one year of starting for LSU- are there any substantial injury/fragility concerns? He's been riding the pine for 4 years in the NFL and 3 years in college, so who knows how durable he is?

Flynn has decent size, he's pretty mobile, has a decent arm and looks pretty accurate. He just leaves me wanting, and I'll be the first to admit that I have to watch more film of this guy to firm up my opinion. Philbin knows Flynn, Sherman knows Tannehill, and my unshakeable preference is Brandon Weeden.

Pending further review I disagree with you re: Flynn's arm- it strikes me as more of a Ryan Fitzpatrick "good, but please don't overspend on this guy" kind of arm. I have no particular bone of contention with Flynn, I just don't see anything particularly compelling in him- I look at him in the vein of, "sure, give him a shot, pay him some decent money, let him get out of Aaron Rodgers' shadow and finally be able to compete for a starting job against Matt Moore." And as to Matt Moore, I'd like to see what he could do behind the Green Bay OL throwing to Grant, Driver, Nelson, Finley, Jones... Green Bay might have been taking it easy, but those were the guys making the plays, at least from what I saw.

For the life of me I don't see this guy getting a humonguous contract off of the monmentum of one game, a 7th rd pedigree and game film that hardly blew me away. If Philbin thinks that he's the answer- I could live with that. I'd much rather see how the draft plays out, have a shot at Weeden and then figure out what to do about Flynn. The guy has decent tools, decent size, pretty good mobility and seemingly good intangibles. What he deserves is a chance to start, not a fortune and a promise that will start.

Pending further study, I really don't see Flynn as being any better than Matt Moore. Moore had some very good games last year, working often with the proverbial flip side of chicken salad- an injured Jake Long, a lame right side of the OL, a very questionable receiving corps outside of Brandon Marshall and a Brandon Marshall who was dropping a maddening number of sure touchdown and other assorted catches. Who was the guy who ran out of bounds against NYJ when he had a sure touchdown? I forget. But Moore's stats could have been much, much better last year with a little bit of help.

Back to the question though- what was the book on Matt Flynn coming out of college? He should have gotten a pass for sitting behind Russell imo- dude was a stud in college, 1st overall pick, etc. Brady is the late round template as a QB value play- what comes to mind as guesses for why he lasted until the 6th rd are "skinny and slow". But Brady could certainly throw the ball in college and some of his NFL throws, especially in freezing weather, have amazed me. But again, Matt Flynn- what was the book on him coming out of LSU? What were his perceived strengths and weaknesses? I doubt that he lasted that long in the draft because he sat for 3 years- Akili Smith comes to mind as the counter example, but I don't think that this part of the discussion merits dissection.

Occam's Razor says that Philbin and Sherman will know what to do re: Flynn and Tannehill.

Opportunity cost says that we will be screwing ourselves mightily if we sign Flynn to huge money and he turns out to be, as I suspect, pretty similar in quality to Matt Moore.

Every time I look at the QB dilemma I keep seeing the same solution- Brandon Weeden.


1. David DeCastro
2. Brandon Weeden
3. Joe Adams
 
No offense, but I'm a little confused by that last part concerning Orton- if I recall correctly you were banging the drums hard to sign Orton and cough up both a high draft pick and a hefty contract for his services and rated him head and shoulders above Chad Henne and Matt Moore.

You're at least partially correct. Definitely better than Chad Henne? Yes. The part where I was wrong is I thought he was also better than Matt Moore which didn't turn out to be the case, at least for now (Moore had a season very similar to Orton's season in Denver in 2010). Give a high pick for him? Not unless you consider a 3rd rounder a high pick. I didn't mind the idea of giving him money to be honest, because you could ALWAYS just cut that money right out of your salary cap later. We'd have given up a 3rd round pick for nothing but I really don't mind tossing draft picks at the QB position hoping to come up with gambles one way or another. If I was for the move it was simply because ANY upgrade at that position leads to more wins, and that should be what we want, right? If I was against the move it was because regardless of whether Orton was here or not, the Dolphins were not going to compete for anything...and so in the end you might as well save your resources for the next regime. But then again, how can THIS regime, operate with that kind of mindset?

As you can see it's not a simple issue from the standpoint of a fan like myself that foresaw the disaster of the 2011 season coming ever since the Dolphins tried and failed to snag Jim Harbaugh. Do you want extra wins? If you know you're going to lose, do you want to just lose as much as possible and conserve your resources? Very existential stuff.

What I mean by seeing Orton coming a mile away was, you could see that the guy is not a franchise caliber quarterback. He was too inconsistent and he had ZERO, and I was consistent in talking about this every time I talked about Kyle Orton, but he had absolutely zero ability to make plays under pressure. There were some people, one guy on another message board comes to mind, who were all rah rah for Kyle Orton like he's a franchise quarterback...that's not how I thought of Orton. He was always just a stopgap. But what would you pay for a stopgap, given how important the position is? I guess that's sort of the question that's up for debate.

Interesting points about Flynn in college, but one sticks with me in particular- dude sounds like he was injured an awful lot in his one year of starting for LSU- are there any substantial injury/fragility concerns? He's been riding the pine for 4 years in the NFL and 3 years in college, so who knows how durable he is?

You bring up a good point. There's no way to really know. He did take both an ankle injury and a separated shoulder in his one year of starting in college. He's not a huge guy, but he is solidly built at 6022 and 231 lbs. I know that more than once I've looked at Matt Moore's diminutive frame and wondered how he can stay healthy long term. And also when Henne got in the new style offense he was clearly taking too many hits to stay healthy. I don't see either of those really being a problem for Flynn and there's no way to know whether he's just kind of fragile. Would be a shame if he is, though.

Flynn has decent size, he's pretty mobile, has a decent arm and looks pretty accurate. He just leaves me wanting, and I'll be the first to admit that I have to watch more film of this guy to firm up my opinion. Philbin knows Flynn, Sherman knows Tannehill, and my unshakeable preference is Brandon Weeden.

I'm with you. You know I've been banging the drum for Weeden for well over a year. I'm just saying that Flynn's a pretty good prospect and I'd be happy with him too.

Pending further review I disagree with you re: Flynn's arm- it strikes me as more of a Ryan Fitzpatrick "good, but please don't overspend on this guy" kind of arm. I have no particular bone of contention with Flynn, I just don't see anything particularly compelling in him- I look at him in the vein of, "sure, give him a shot, pay him some decent money, let him get out of Aaron Rodgers' shadow and finally be able to compete for a starting job against Matt Moore." And as to Matt Moore, I'd like to see what he could do behind the Green Bay OL throwing to Grant, Driver, Nelson, Finley, Jones... Green Bay might have been taking it easy, but those were the guys making the plays, at least from what I saw.

I've always viewed arm strength as more a "you must be this high to ride this ride" issue when it comes to the NFL. You need to be able to make all the throws, which Flynn clearly can. After that, I've just NOT seen evidence that incremental increases in arm strength lead to incremental increases in talent. Especially consider some of the best QBs in the game are/were Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Phil Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. The only one that has a Brandon Weeden gun is Ben Roethlisberger, and none of them have the Joe Flacco/Jamarcus Russell gun. All of them except Big Ben were thrown up against guys that did have that better arm strength/cannon arm strength, and their deficiencies were laid bare relative to those other players with the better arms...and yet they've become the best passers in the game. Some of them, the best passers in the HISTORY of the game. And with the exception of Roethlisberger and Rodgers I'm not sure Flynn's arm is worse than any of the other four's arms.

The position is like 80% mental. What's important isn't the pure arm strength but the confidence, which often but doesn't necessarily always come from having a strong arm. You have to have the confidence to stick throws in and continually on Flynn's tape I see that confidence.

For the life of me I don't see this guy getting a humonguous contract off of the monmentum of one game, a 7th rd pedigree and game film that hardly blew me away. If Philbin thinks that he's the answer- I could live with that. I'd much rather see how the draft plays out, have a shot at Weeden and then figure out what to do about Flynn. The guy has decent tools, decent size, pretty good mobility and seemingly good intangibles. What he deserves is a chance to start, not a fortune and a promise that will start.

The 7th round pedigree appears to have been a mistake, purely based on what he's already shown in the NFL. It's not just one game but more like two. And also keep in mind, the "humongous" contract is NOT going to be as expensive as you think. You think whatever team signs him is going to have to live with him for 3 years regardless of how he plays? I don't. I think if he doesn't put up right away, whatever team signs him could put him on the street by 2013, especially since it will not require a draft pick to bring him in. I think all told he's going to pull in about $17 or $18 million dollars in 2012, and if he sucks in 2012 and you don't want to be on the hook for an additional $8 or $9 million in 2013, then you cut ties with him and that $17 or $18 million will end up being spread out over two years' worth of salary caps. Would it suck to waste that much money? Sure. But it also sucked to waste a 2nd round pick on Pat White, and they're both equivalent to one another in terms of what they cost the team over the short and long terms.

When it comes to valuing salary cap versus draft picks, you HAVE to keep conscious of how you view those. What would you rather have? A $7 million cap credit to be spread out over however many years you like, or a mid-3rd round pick?

Pending further study, I really don't see Flynn as being any better than Matt Moore. Moore had some very good games last year, working often with the proverbial flip side of chicken salad- an injured Jake Long, a lame right side of the OL, a very questionable receiving corps outside of Brandon Marshall and a Brandon Marshall who was dropping a maddening number of sure touchdown and other assorted catches. Who was the guy who ran out of bounds against NYJ when he had a sure touchdown? I forget. But Moore's stats could have been much, much better last year with a little bit of help.

Well if you're going to say Moore is as good as Flynn then you and I are not going to see eye to eye here. I think it's clear on the tape that Flynn is a superior player.

Back to the question though- what was the book on Matt Flynn coming out of college? He should have gotten a pass for sitting behind Russell imo- dude was a stud in college, 1st overall pick, etc. Brady is the late round template as a QB value play- what comes to mind as guesses for why he lasted until the 6th rd are "skinny and slow". But Brady could certainly throw the ball in college and some of his NFL throws, especially in freezing weather, have amazed me. But again, Matt Flynn- what was the book on him coming out of LSU? What were his perceived strengths and weaknesses? I doubt that he lasted that long in the draft because he sat for 3 years- Akili Smith comes to mind as the counter example, but I don't think that this part of the discussion merits dissection.

No offense but didn't I just go through what the problem was in college and why he fell to the 7th round? Being forced to sit behind guys that were viewed to be better, inexperience, mediocre statistics during his senior campaign, not the greatest set of tangibles. The NFL was caught up at the time in the idea that number of starts and completion percentage guide whether you're a great prospect or not. Well, Flynn had like 13 starts and a 56% completion. I've explained some extenuating circumstances with the ankle injury and how it affected his ability to complete a high percentage of passes for about a month of the season, but teams aren't going to pay attention to extenuating circumstances for a guy that only started for one year. You've explained some extenuating circumstances for why he didn't start over Jamarcus Russell (who by the time Flynn was heading for the Draft was already awful as a rookie, and exposed for a terrible Draft prospect in the way that many now consider Blaine Gabbert to be this year). But extenuating circumstances doesn't mean the scouts bought it.

I mean you're sitting here talking up Tom Brady and yet the fact remains the guy fell to the 6th round until Tom Martinez banged the table for him in New England and so they took him. Same happened in Green Bay.

Occam's Razor says that Philbin and Sherman will know what to do re: Flynn and Tannehill.

Can Occam's Razor tell me the lottery numbers? Extremely overused etiological construct. Total pet peeve of mine.

Opportunity cost says that we will be screwing ourselves mightily if we sign Flynn to huge money and he turns out to be, as I suspect, pretty similar in quality to Matt Moore.

Opportunity cost also says that we will be screwing ourselves mightily if we draft Ryan Tannehill with a 1st round pick or Brandon Weeden with a 2nd round pick, and either of those guys turn out not to be much better than Matt Moore, either. In fact, a CORRECT view of the concept of opportunity cost would show that the opportunity cost is GREATER in the cases of Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill. With either guy, you are forced to understand that they are rookies, and so if they struggle for a year or even two years, there is tremendous pressure to keep giving them chances, waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel. With Matt Flynn, either he shows you why you gave him money in the first year or two, or he's gone.
 
You're at least partially correct. Definitely better than Chad Henne? Yes. The part where I was wrong is I thought he was also better than Matt Moore which didn't turn out to be the case, at least for now (Moore had a season very similar to Orton's season in Denver in 2010). Give a high pick for him? Not unless you consider a 3rd rounder a high pick. I didn't mind the idea of giving him money to be honest, because you could ALWAYS just cut that money right out of your salary cap later. We'd have given up a 3rd round pick for nothing but I really don't mind tossing draft picks at the QB position hoping to come up with gambles one way or another. If I was for the move it was simply because ANY upgrade at that position leads to more wins, and that should be what we want, right? If I was against the move it was because regardless of whether Orton was here or not, the Dolphins were not going to compete for anything...and so in the end you might as well save your resources for the next regime. But then again, how can THIS regime, operate with that kind of mindset?

As you can see it's not a simple issue from the standpoint of a fan like myself that foresaw the disaster of the 2011 season coming ever since the Dolphins tried and failed to snag Jim Harbaugh. Do you want extra wins? If you know you're going to lose, do you want to just lose as much as possible and conserve your resources? Very existential stuff.

What I mean by seeing Orton coming a mile away was, you could see that the guy is not a franchise caliber quarterback. He was too inconsistent and he had ZERO, and I was consistent in talking about this every time I talked about Kyle Orton, but he had absolutely zero ability to make plays under pressure. There were some people, one guy on another message board comes to mind, who were all rah rah for Kyle Orton like he's a franchise quarterback...that's not how I thought of Orton. He was always just a stopgap. But what would you pay for a stopgap, given how important the position is? I guess that's sort of the question that's up for debate.



You bring up a good point. There's no way to really know. He did take both an ankle injury and a separated shoulder in his one year of starting in college. He's not a huge guy, but he is solidly built at 6022 and 231 lbs. I know that more than once I've looked at Matt Moore's diminutive frame and wondered how he can stay healthy long term. And also when Henne got in the new style offense he was clearly taking too many hits to stay healthy. I don't see either of those really being a problem for Flynn and there's no way to know whether he's just kind of fragile. Would be a shame if he is, though.



I'm with you. You know I've been banging the drum for Weeden for well over a year. I'm just saying that Flynn's a pretty good prospect and I'd be happy with him too.



I've always viewed arm strength as more a "you must be this high to ride this ride" issue when it comes to the NFL. You need to be able to make all the throws, which Flynn clearly can. After that, I've just NOT seen evidence that incremental increases in arm strength lead to incremental increases in talent. Especially consider some of the best QBs in the game are/were Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Phil Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. The only one that has a Brandon Weeden gun is Ben Roethlisberger, and none of them have the Joe Flacco/Jamarcus Russell gun. All of them except Big Ben were thrown up against guys that did have that better arm strength/cannon arm strength, and their deficiencies were laid bare relative to those other players with the better arms...and yet they've become the best passers in the game. Some of them, the best passers in the HISTORY of the game. And with the exception of Roethlisberger and Rodgers I'm not sure Flynn's arm is worse than any of the other four's arms.

The position is like 80% mental. What's important isn't the pure arm strength but the confidence, which often but doesn't necessarily always come from having a strong arm. You have to have the confidence to stick throws in and continually on Flynn's tape I see that confidence.



The 7th round pedigree appears to have been a mistake, purely based on what he's already shown in the NFL. It's not just one game but more like two. And also keep in mind, the "humongous" contract is NOT going to be as expensive as you think. You think whatever team signs him is going to have to live with him for 3 years regardless of how he plays? I don't. I think if he doesn't put up right away, whatever team signs him could put him on the street by 2013, especially since it will not require a draft pick to bring him in. I think all told he's going to pull in about $17 or $18 million dollars in 2012, and if he sucks in 2012 and you don't want to be on the hook for an additional $8 or $9 million in 2013, then you cut ties with him and that $17 or $18 million will end up being spread out over two years' worth of salary caps. Would it suck to waste that much money? Sure. But it also sucked to waste a 2nd round pick on Pat White, and they're both equivalent to one another in terms of what they cost the team over the short and long terms.

When it comes to valuing salary cap versus draft picks, you HAVE to keep conscious of how you view those. What would you rather have? A $7 million cap credit to be spread out over however many years you like, or a mid-3rd round pick?



Well if you're going to say Moore is as good as Flynn then you and I are not going to see eye to eye here. I think it's clear on the tape that Flynn is a superior player.



No offense but didn't I just go through what the problem was in college and why he fell to the 7th round? Being forced to sit behind guys that were viewed to be better, inexperience, mediocre statistics during his senior campaign, not the greatest set of tangibles. The NFL was caught up at the time in the idea that number of starts and completion percentage guide whether you're a great prospect or not. Well, Flynn had like 13 starts and a 56% completion. I've explained some extenuating circumstances with the ankle injury and how it affected his ability to complete a high percentage of passes for about a month of the season, but teams aren't going to pay attention to extenuating circumstances for a guy that only started for one year. You've explained some extenuating circumstances for why he didn't start over Jamarcus Russell (who by the time Flynn was heading for the Draft was already awful as a rookie, and exposed for a terrible Draft prospect in the way that many now consider Blaine Gabbert to be this year). But extenuating circumstances doesn't mean the scouts bought it.

I mean you're sitting here talking up Tom Brady and yet the fact remains the guy fell to the 6th round until Tom Martinez banged the table for him in New England and so they took him. Same happened in Green Bay.



Can Occam's Razor tell me the lottery numbers? Extremely overused etiological construct. Total pet peeve of mine.



Opportunity cost also says that we will be screwing ourselves mightily if we draft Ryan Tannehill with a 1st round pick or Brandon Weeden with a 2nd round pick, and either of those guys turn out not to be much better than Matt Moore, either. In fact, a CORRECT view of the concept of opportunity cost would show that the opportunity cost is GREATER in the cases of Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill. With either guy, you are forced to understand that they are rookies, and so if they struggle for a year or even two years, there is tremendous pressure to keep giving them chances, waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel. With Matt Flynn, either he shows you why you gave him money in the first year or two, or he's gone.

I was looking for something more specific re: Flynn and the draft, I did read what you wrote the first time- probably not a fair question, it was 4 years ago, I'll look it up myself, share what I find. I'm looking for stuff more like how he performs throwing certain patterns, etc. Yeah 56% completion rate is a bit low, but there has to be more to the story- Flynn did have a 126 passer rating and led his team to the NCAA championship. Good size, pretty good arm, can move, proven winner, won the championship- and falls to the 7th rd. Again, I read what you wrote on the mattter and it's good stuff- it just still doesn't quite add up to me. I don't mean anything like he was sucking on Jamarcus' purple drink or something like that- it just doesn't make sense for him to fall that far unless there were significant defciencies in his game. For example, if I'm a scout and I love this guy, I'm thinking, "damn, he's been stuck behind Russell for 3 years, he's accurate, has a solid arm, good size and can run, plus great intangibles, plus he led his team to the NCAA championship, he's battle tested... sign him up! What a year this kid would have had if he wasn't injured!- and he still threw for 21 TDs and had a 126 passer rating! Let's go get him!"

But that, obviously, didn't happen. He was drafted later than we drafted Josh Heupel, and that guy was scary bad. The first question that comes to my mind is arm strength- I'll research this further. The other fact of the matter is this- I really have to see more of Flynn before I firm up an opinion.

"Occam's Razor"- in this case it's just a shorthand, lazy way of saying Philbin was the dude's OC, and if anyone knows he'll know how good Flynn is and if he's worth the investment. So the answer is the simplest, most obvious one- Philbin will know if Flynn is worth pursuing and relay that to Ireland. Everything else is wheel spinning.

As to Orton- your prognostication was correct as per the team- the Dolphins sucked wang last year. Hard to fault anyone like you for wanting to improve the team- I'm just not a big fan of Orton- his game or attitude- and I'm glad he wasn't given the big contract. I would have been pissed if, in hindsite, a 3rd given for Orton cost us Joe Adams. Livid if it were a 2nd rd pick and cost us Coby Fleener. Shopping for electric cattle prods and looking up addresses if it cost us Brandon Weeden.

QB Opportunity cost- big one as per money re: Flynn. Big one as per draft picks- Tannehill in the 1st is a big risk imo- can this guy make all the throws? I read about him having problems with certain patterns, moving targets. From what I've seen- I hesitantly like the guy, but I do not love this guy as a prospect. What a freaking shame Tyler Wilson didn't come out- then again, maybe he'd get snapped up before our pick, too.

As to Weeden- I think that he carries the least amount of risk outside of Luck, easily. At worst, you have a solid backup his 1st year- and I stress, at worst. After that- we're both obvioulsy big fans, not much left to say. I think that Brandon Marshall would love this guy's arm, would flourish with Weeden throwing him the ball (see Pro Bowl comments and stats). Personally I'd love to see him throwing to Joe Adams or Coby Fleener- or both in my dream scenario trade with the Bengals. And Clyde Gates if he gets his act in gear. Nothing is ever a sure thing, but with Weeden my guess is that at minimum you get a solid NFL QB. And you get one who is ready to play in the NFL quickly and can play for you at a very high level for 8 years or so. The upside as per Weeden in my humble, limited opinion- he can be great.
 
orton was and always will be hot garbage...just saw where the skins have $49 mil in cap space peyton and reggie wayne seem like virtual locks to me as redskins this offseason given that money to maneuver with and the need for both snyder won't care if its a short term fix either...this will come down to flynn or tannehill for miami and frankly i'm ok with either scenario...if we miss on flynn or pass just take tannehill and develop his first round tools and measurables with matt moore the likely week 1 starter in 2012...barring tannehill proving to be a very fast learner

i think the matt flynn mark brunell comparisons are very fitting...brunell was a good athlete who could play in the pocket had a feel for pressure and while not a great arm a darn solid enough one to make plenty of plays...there was a while there when mark brunell in jax was one of the top qbs in the game...flynn has brunell like physical abilities and talents imo...very similar...if we got a mark brunell level qb in the deal i'd sign for that in a heartbeat
 
the only thing i will say about tannehill is listening to irelands words it sure seems to me that he is looking for an immediate fix and i just can't see tannehill being viewed that way...but if we go 0 fer in free agency at the position i think tannehills 1st round physical tools measurables and very high upside will win out and we pluck him in the top 10...no way i see ireland waiting around for the position in the draft if he fails to add what they perceive as an immediate upgrade in free agency...

it's flynn or tannehill...put me down in stone on it...waiting around for peyton when snyder backs up the brinks truck to get him signed is gonna prove futile...snyder will seal the deal by agreeing to bring along reggie wayne as well
 
The whole Tannehill/Flynn is going to be so interesting. March 13th I guess we'll know.

I think Flynn is ready to make a big step.
realistically, this one seems to be the quickest move with no hitches. Part of me though wants him to want to come to miami because he knows he can make it happen here, not because he has a big pay day coming.

I also wonder if we didnt go looking for him balls to the walls would his price come down figuring Browns and Skins would not be interested.
 
We have seen him start twice, both games he played very well, both games he had a week to prepare with the first team offense. Trying to get a feel for a guy coming off the bench cold is pointless.

As for the "meaningless" game against Detroit, tell that to the Lions who were playing to avoid going to New Orleans.

So who is more ready to start tomorrow then Flynn?

Tell that to the Giants who WON THE SUPER BOWL!!!!

How do you know the Lions werent avoiding the Giants? After all, they not only were capable of beating the 9ers in San Fran whereas the Saints werent, they did win the Super Bowl ya know.

That game vs. Detroit was nothing more than a pro-bowl esq scrimmage. Flag football. Flynn blows.
 
Back
Top Bottom