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CNNSI: Flynn Ready to Lead Franchise

the lions did not want to go to new orleans to open the postseason...nobody does...and had the giants not won that season ending sunday nighter they wouldn't have even made the postseason so you can't say the lions didn't want to go to new york...
 
Yeah the Lions were trying to get out of playing New Orleans who were legitimately arguable as the hottest team in the NFL at that moment.
 
One thing I forgot about Flynn's time in college is that he Jamarcus Russell got "injured" heading into the 4th quarter of the SEC Championship Game in 2005, already down 27-7 in what appeared to be a rout by Georgia, and Flynn came in for him and then started in the following Peach Bowl against Miami. I remembered that Russell had gotten benched at one point, because it was one of my chief criticisms of him coming out, but I hadn't really connected the dots to Flynn yet.

Anyway it's not like Flynn did much better in that 4th quarter. He threw a pick-6 to Tim Jennings on his 2nd pass attempt. But he did also throw a touchdown, too...finishing 3 of 11 for 36 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. At least during the quarter he played, he was 7-7 with the Bulldogs. The real story though is that when Saban decided to give Flynn the nod in the Peach Bowl against Miami, he was 13 of 22 for 196 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in a 40-3 rout of the Hurricanes. Flynn finished that year with a 7 to 1 TD-INT ratio.

I'd forgotten about that. It kind of furthers the point though about his ankle injury in his senior season and how it screwed things up for him for about a month. The following were his college stats, excluding that month with an ankle injury.

NCAA: 190 of 327 for 2494 yards, 28 TD, 9 INT, 4 rush TD - 99.4 passer rating
 
I'm showing Flynn's full 2007 senior year QBR, ankle injury included, at 125.8. So I'm not sure how excluding the month when he had the bad ankle furthers his cause, when your time adjustment (his month of play with a bad ankle deducted) leaves him with a 99.4 QBR, 26.4 points lower than the full year figure of 125.8, and pretty much the same completion percentage.

The whole discussion from my end is mute for two reasons:

I need to see more game film of Flynn.

It will most likely end up with me being the same way that I am with Matt Barkley, with an attitude of, "yeah, he looks like a good QB with intangibles, prety good size and mobility, but I can't get on board with that arm." And when I say "get on board", I'm referring to coughing up big money and/or high draft picks.

Bottom line: Flynn looks like a good QB- I like him, but I don't love him.

Same thing for Tannehill, but a different variation on the same theme- I look at him and I don't see a natural, instinctive QB like I do with Weeden and Tyler Wilson- and I don't like his arm as well as the other two- not a bad arm, but a really low release pointy and it just doesn't stand out to me. I know he's got limited time at QB in college, but he's not new to the postion. No matter how you cut it, his lack of QB playing time in college raises his beta as a draft prospect. Is that a negative or a positve? Sign of room to grow or a lack of analytic data? I guess we could ask the same question about Flynn when he came out...

Regardless, you made some very good points about Flynn, thx for psting them.

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=1203437
 
You've got to learn the difference between a college and NFL passer rating. They're different formulas.
 
ckparrothead said:
You've got to learn the difference between a college and NFL passer rating. They're different formulas.
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Since we're talking about his college stats, as per factoring out his month with the bad ankle, maybe it's the college formula that we should be using in this case.

It's not a big issue with me anyway. Using Matt Moore as an example- how much higher would his passer rating have been if B Marshall didn't drop numerous TDs and that other guy- maybe it was Marshall, I don't remember- didn't run out of bounds for no reason in the NYJ game costing another pass TD, which was in its own way a surreal moment in football time?

I'd rather judge Flynn by what I see- what I've seen so far is a pretty good Quarterback with limited upside, and that's about it. It's just an opinion, and you know what they say about opinions and what they're reminiscient of- everyone has one and most of them stink. Philbin will obviously do what he thinks best (please Joe- draft Brandon Weeden)- but at this point I see Moore to Flynn as a lateral move, with Moore having the advantages in terms of both experience and being more of a known quantity.


Regardless of who plays QB- the receiving positions need upgrades, and Bess being a fan favorite is somewhat muting the issues that he causes as a slot receiver and punt returner- he's too damn slow. Enter the dragon, Joe Adams.

If you added a Joe Adams or Coby Fleener- and hopefully marked improvement from speedster Clyde Gates- any QB will look better in our offense. Not to mention shoring up the right side of the OL and Murtha, if not someone better, replacing Colombo.


1. David DeCastro
2. Brandon Weeden
3. Joe Adams


With Bengals trade and a little luck:


1. David DeCastro
1. Brandon Weeden
2. Coby Fleener
3. Joe Adams
 
jim1 said:
Since we're talking about his college stats, as per factoring out his month with the bad ankle, maybe it's the college formula that we should be using in this case.
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Feel free if that's what you want to do but since we're looking at NFL players and projecting what they're going to do at the NFL level I prefer the NFL passer rating. I was just explaining why you found a discrepancy. Taking out the 4 games does not lower his passer rating, it raises it considerably.

It's not a big issue with me anyway. Using Matt Moore as an example- how much higher would his passer rating have been if B Marshall didn't drop numerous TDs and that other guy- maybe it was Marshall, I don't remember- didn't run out of bounds for no reason in the NYJ game costing another pass TD, which was in its own way a surreal moment in football time?
Click to expand...

I've said this before but for one thing many of the "drops" Marshall had that would have been TDs weren't actually drops, and for another thing, ALL quarterbacks have to live with drops from their receivers. Moore did not have to live with any more than most others. Weeding out periods where a QB is significantly hurt is a lot easier and therefore applicable across the board than going through and adjusting for every drop. Not all QBs are forced to play through a significant injury. But all QBs have to live with drops.

I'd rather judge Flynn by what I see- what I've seen so far is a pretty good Quarterback with limited upside, and that's about it. It's just an opinion, and you know what they say about opinions and what they're reminiscient of- everyone has one and most of them stink. Philbin will obviously do what he thinks best (please Joe- draft Brandon Weeden)- but at this point I see Moore to Flynn as a lateral move, with Moore having the advantages in terms of both experience and being more of a known quantity.
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You're the one that kept asking what his MO was in college and why he went so low, I'm just explaining what he did in college.
 
Dolphins coach Joe Philbin, whose quarterback opinion carries great weight with GM Jeff Ireland, thinks highly of Green Bay’s Matt Flynn and Miami has interest in him if they don’t get Peyton Manning.

But here’s a precautionary note pointed out to us about Flynn’s signature game (480 yards, six touchdowns against Detroit on Jan. 1): A lot of his damage was done against two defensive backs ranked in the bottom quarter of the league (Chris Harris and Alphonso Smith) and a cornerback (Chris Houston) who was limited that day because of injury. Plus, the Packers had 223 yards after catch.

 As expected, the Dolphins have shown no interest in re-signing free agent Chad Henne. Matt Moore will return and is due to earn $2.5 million.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/spor...ing-plus-fins-heat-marlins.html#storylink=cpy
 
That's a good example of quoting a statistic without understanding the proper context for that statistics. It says 223 yards of Flynn's 480 yards was after the catch. The problem? That's not an abnormal ratio. Approximately 47% of Aaron Rodgers' passing yards came after contact. Flynn's percentage in that game was 46.5%. Almost identical.
 
And there's also the simple matter of bias. If Aaron Rodgers has that game against the Lions, everyone fawns over it as yet another example of why he's so awesome with awesome sauce. Drew Brees has that game against the Lions the next week, again it's a great data point for how and why he's one of the best ever to play the game.

Matt Flynn has that game against the Lions, and it's like...psssh, who cares, nearly half the yards came after the catch anyway.

People don't realize that yards after the catch is a CREDIT to a quarterback's accuracy, timing and decision making. You don't get those yards after the catch unless you're making good decisions about where to throw the ball, getting it out in a timely fashion, and throwing a very catchable ball in the right spot.
 
ckparrothead said:
That's a good example of quoting a statistic without understanding the proper context for that statistics. It says 223 yards of Flynn's 480 yards was after the catch. The problem? That's not an abnormal ratio. Approximately 47% of Aaron Rodgers' passing yards came after contact. Flynn's percentage in that game was 46.5%. Almost identical.
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No matter how you cut it, Flynn got a LOT of help form his supporting cast in that game. And a lot of help from Detroit's crappy secondary play. I'd think that a guy like you would be concerned with regression toward the mean, if there was a mean to regress to. He doesn't have the body of work to justify a high cost imo. And an average arm.
 
jim1 said:
No matter how you cut it, Flynn got a LOT of help form his supporting cast in that game. And a lot of help from Detroit's crappy secondary play. I'd think that a guy like you would be concerned with regression toward the mean, if there was a mean to regress to. He doesn't have the body of work to justify a high cost imo. And an average arm.
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No matter how you cut it, the supporting cast got a LOT of help from Matt Flynn in that game.

How can you make a reversion to the mean argument when you've got no idea what the mean is? He's got a 92 career passer rating. Why isn't that the mean?

Average arm for an NFL starter is a very good arm, and that's what he has. I don't need an elite arm. Phil Rivers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning all have average arms for NFL starters. What makes a QB special isn't the delta between an average arm for an NFL starter and an elite arm for an NFL starter...it's what is going on upstairs that makes them elite.
 
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