I would like our chances MUCH better if we had beaten Denver last year. That's one of my sweetest theories, anti-revenge at home after defeating the same team on the road. It's especially awesome for first half wagering. A few years ago I salivated for months when we were placed in an immediate anti-revenge home situation vs. Seattle after defeating them in the playoffs in Seattle the year before. That home opener basically wasn't gambling. Something like 20-0 right out of the box.
As someone else posted in this thread, beware of underestimating Denver. They are a smart team that has stockpiled some impressive personnel. I would like the opener more if we were facing a less cerebral team.
Last year we were underdogs by about 10 and lost by 3. I realize it's a different coach and regime, but history has taught me not to like the chances of the team that lost a close one like that. Winning inspires winning and vice-versa. This time we'll be underdogs by 3 or 4 and probably lose by about the margin of last year's projection, in the 7 to 10 range.
The mainstream media simply does a pathetic job of understanding and analyzing things like that. A few nights ago I heard John Thompson, the old Georgetown coach, emphasize after Memphis' close loss to Phoenix in game two that the loss almost didn't matter, because now Memphis had the confidence they could beat Phoenix. My friends and I sitting together at the Caesar's Palace sportsbook burst into immediate laughter. We've been here long enough to understand if a team exceeds expectations it better pull off the outright win, otherwise the next outing will invariably deviate toward the norm. In this case, sure enough, that meant a 110-90 Phoenix rout in game three.
