Guys coming out of college are more ready to come out and throw as rookies but that doesn't mean the usual period of adjustments and counter adjustments doesn't really apply. In fact, it means that there are more "mirages" in the first year or two, since a guy can come out with throwing ability and be ahead of the defenses against him for the moment, until they figure out his true tendencies. Let's look at some possible mirages recently.
Baker Mayfield - looked great as a rookie on a team that hadn't won a game in almost two years before he got his first win. Fell flat on his face in epic fashion as a sophomore, now the jury is still out as a power run scheme is limiting his exposure.
Lamar Jackson - MVP as a sophomore. Year 3, pretty lukewarm. Definite regression especially in throwing the ball. Of course, jury still out.
Carson Wentz - MVP candidate 2nd year, got injured. Did ok third year, got injured. Never found his groove 4th year. 5th year, benched.
Blake Bortles - great numbers 2nd year. Major questions in third year, eventually benched, backup.
RG3 - rookie of the year. Got injured. Came back and didn't play well once he couldn't depend on athleticism. Masked that he never threw that well out of the pocket to begin with.
Josh Freeman - great sophomore year. Horrible third year. Resurgence 4th year and immensely quick fall from grace afterwards.
Not listing Trubisky since there were still questions after sophomore year. Not listing guys like Winston, Mariota, Bradford, etc. that started out ok and just never got better. Not listing Mark Sanchez because his numbers were never really good even though his 3rd year was his first non-playoff year.
You can see pretty clearly a lot of guys look like they've arrived only to fall back. And of course others fail to ever progress from their rookie seasons. It's important to look critically at every QB individually because you can't just assume progression and regression.
It was much easier back in the day, with as hard as the transition was from college to the pros, that when a guy "got it" usually after a year or two of taking his lumps he was probably a keeper. Because it took a lot of ability just to be able to reach that point in the first place.
