Full AFC East Grades (Plus NY Giants)

[ckparrothead]

Hindsight is 20/20.

The Dolphins don't spend $5 million evaluating the NFL Draft every year so that they can take refuge in a "hindsight" excuse.

They spend $5 million evaluating the NFL Draft every year so that their decision-makers can develop proper foresight.

 

[finsfanjay13]

The Dolphins don't spend $5 million evaluating the NFL Draft every year so that they can take refuge in a "hindsight" excuse.

They spend $5 million evaluating the NFL Draft every year so that their decision-makers can develop proper foresight.

Hedge funds don't spend 50+ hours a week doing technical and fundamental analysis on stocks to get stuck with losing positions. But guess what? They still get stuck with duds. To think that spending money. time, or anything else that can be quantified == guaranteed success is naive.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Hindsight is 20/20. Just because Matt Ryan has succeeded in Atlanta does not mean he would have succeeded in Miami. Correlation does not imply causation.



They won the AFC East with Chad Pennington in 2008. Do you consider Chad Pennington as being a quarterback that they "hit on" (no underlying implication there)?



Uhh ... isn't that basically a given? I mean, this statement isn't anything revolutionary and applies to ALL regimes in the NFL.



I'll pass. Trust me, I know where you're coming from. However, to automatically consider a draft "absurd" because they didn't draft a quarterback is where we disagree for the most part. I don't give this draft an A. But I do give it a passing grade, because no matter which way you slice it, the front office made this team better. Would I have preferred a quarterback? Yes, I would have. With that said, I think next year's crop of quarterbacks is better than this years. I would rather take a flyer on Henne for one more year and actually give him a chance in a system that isn't run by a person who is nearing 100 years old and build a better team around him than draft a QB who wasn't going to do anything for us this year anyways. The Dolphins gave more weapons to whomever is the QB of the future, which I hope has a last name of "Luck", "Barkley" or "Jones".

Trust me, if the Dolphins go 7-9 this year and Henne performs like he did last year (which is likely) and they pass on a QB in 2012, I'll be leading the pack in getting rid of this front office. Hell, I wanted them gone *before* this year's draft. But we got stuck with them, and all we can ask is that they try and make this team better. I believe they accomplished that in this year's draft. Did they hit a homerun? No. But they did hit a double and gave the team a chance to score the go ahead run.

Hopefully that gives you insight into where I'm coming from.

Whether Matt Ryan would've succeeded or failed here isn't the point. Matt Ryan would've been the RIGHT pick in my opinion no matter what the results were. I'm not using "hindsight" as my prop here... I'm using the philosophy that if you don't have a franchise quarterback, take one. Particularly when he's right there for you to take him.

I knew Jake Long was going to be a good player no matter where he went, but I also knew that it wasn't going to matter unless it was with a team that had a quarterback.


Listen, I know exactly where you're coming from. It's the same place all those were coming from when I told them passing up on Matt Ryan was going to be a mistake, and the same place all these people are at that I keep trying to help see the light...


One day you will understand, I guarantee you will.

 

[jamvinny]

Rick Gosselin's NFL draft gems


Here are the draft picks viewed by NFL writer Rick Gosselin as the best values in each round:

First round - NICK FAIRLEY, DT, DETROIT: The Lions had a choice between DTs Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy with the second overall pick in 2010. They took Suh. Fairley is better than McCoy, and the Lions got him at 13. A dynamic pass rusher.
Second round - DANIEL THOMAS, HB, MIAMI:
The prototypical big back in this draft at 6-0, 230 pounds, the Dolphins stole Thomas at the end of the round with the 62nd pick. He punished the Big 12 for 1,585 yards and 19 touchdowns last season.

Third round: RYAN MALLETT, QB, NEW ENGLAND: Bill Belichick seems to take a dozen picks into every draft. That quantity allows him to take some chances. NFL teams had character concerns about Mallett — but no one doubted his ability.
Fourth round - LUKE STOCKER, TE, TAMPA BAY:
There were only three three-down tight ends in this draft, and the Bucs traded up to get Stocker, the last one. He has the size (6-5, 258) that will allow Kellen Winslow to operate out of an H-back role.

Fifth round - JEREMY KERLEY, WR, NY JETS: Not only did the Jets land an accomplished slot receiver, Kerley was one of the five best kick returners in this draft. He averaged 27.2 yards on career kickoffs and 13.8 yards on punts.
Sixth round - TYLER SASH, S, NY GIANTS:

Guys - Forgive me i'm a little bit out of the loop with the recent thread of posts. But I'm always cautious when Miami draft RBs. Its been a poor record bar Zonk, Kiick and Morris if you know your Miami history.

I will prefer to see how it plays out with Daniel Thomas before some of you guys say he's the real deal.

I remember how excited I felt when we drafted a certain Sammie Smith - Broke all sorts of college rushing records with the Seminoles, 6ft 2 - 225 pounds - a sure done deal we thought!

The older you get the better you manage your expectations especially when the Fins are concerned!

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Ah, I didn't see that. Suffice it to say, his theory is wrong. Mallett has a very strong personality, confidence many mistake for arrogance. Jay Cutler is the same way. Ryan Mallett and Jay Cutler are both supremely talented. Jay Cutler has called Brandon Marshall out to the media before. Even so, tehy're best friends. There's a reason Marshall felt the need to break his silence about the draft when he was watching Gruden's QB Camp and decided that Ryan Mallett will be an All Pro.

Obviously his theory his wrong.... which is why I chose to address it. I doubt the guy that was tweeting about Ryan Mallett being an All-Pro quarterback was the reason they decided they couldn't take him...

However, my point is that I don't believe ANY team in their right mind is out there passing up potential franchise quarterbacks because they're afraid what their diva receiver, who's more of a pain in the *** than anything else thinks about it anyway...

If they are, they're way past the point of being a laughing stock and fearing for their jobs anyway....

 

[ckparrothead]

Hedge funds don't spend 50+ hours a week doing technical and fundamental analysis on stocks to get stuck with losing positions. But guess what? They still get stuck with duds. To think that spending money. time, or anything else that can be quantified == guaranteed success is naive.

Not quite as naive as thinking your answer applies to the point I raised. A hedge fund, or any fund or account managed by an asset manager, is answerable to performance standards, usually relative to a benchmark. Often times, very SPECIFIC performance standards, such as 150 bps of alpha over any trailing 3 year period. I am arguing for EXACTLY the kind of accountability that hedge fund managers and asset managers experience on an ongoing basis. Whereas you seem to be cool with underperfomance on the basis of, "Well, hindsight is 20/20..."

If I'm a consultant and the asset manager for my client's money came into a meeting with the board for a client review, and explained his underperformance the way you did, "Hindsight is 20/20..." I would immediately point out exactly what I did here, that WE PAY YOU to have foresight, not to hide behind hindsight excuses. I certainly can't imagine coming to any of the clients for which my team manages billions of dollars worth of assets for, with an excuse that poor.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Guys - Forgive me i'm a little bit out of the loop with the recent thread of posts. But I'm always cautious when Miami draft RBs. Its been a poor record bar Zonk, Kiick and Morris if you know your Miami history.

I will prefer to see how it plays out with Daniel Thomas before some of you guys say he's the real deal.

I remember how excited I felt when we drafted a certain Sammie Smith - Broke all college rushing records with the Seminoles, 6ft 2 - 225 pounds - a sure done deal we thought!

The older you get the better you manage your expectations especially when the Fins are concerned!

Absolutely... I don't think there was a back in the Big-12 that didn't "pound" their defenses...

Hell, Texas had the #1 rushing defense in the country when they had to face Alabama in the national title game, and BOTH Bama's backs rushed for over 100 yards on them before they even knew what hit 'em...

Pounding Big-12 defenses is like pounding a C-USA defense, unless you're talking about Nebraska's..

 

[finsfanjay13]

Listen, I know exactly where you're coming from. It's the same place all those were coming from when I told them passing up on Matt Ryan was going to be a mistake, and the same place all these people are at that I keep trying to help see the light...

One day you will understand, I guarantee you will.

As much as I applaud your confidence, it's bordering on the line of arrogance and/or narcissism.

I also think we're arguing different points here. I'm looking at the picture from a holistic view. My view is simple: If they want to be stubborn as hell and not grab a new quarterback, then all I can ask for is that they build a better team around him. That way, when the inevitable happens (i.e., they're gone), the new regime can come in, get their guy, plug his *** in and hopefully have a winning formula.

If that doesn't make it any more clear, then one day you will understand. I guarantee you will.

 

[ckparrothead]

Obviously his theory his wrong.... which is why I chose to address it. I doubt the guy that was tweeting about Ryan Mallett being an All-Pro quarterback was the reason they decided they couldn't take him...

However, my point is that I don't believe ANY team in their right mind is out there passing up potential franchise quarterbacks because they're afraid what their diva receiver, who's more of a pain in the *** than anything else thinks about it anyway...

If they are, they're way past the point of being a laughing stock and fearing for their jobs anyway....

Agree with that point as well. In other words, suggesting that the Dolphins didn't draft Mallett because of Marshall is as messed up as the possibility that the Dolphins avoided Andy Dalton because of the results of that whacky clown-ish performance by Daboll where he pretended to be a diva WR. Wrong, for so many reasons.

 

[ckparrothead]

Absolutely... I don't think there was a back in the Big-12 that didn't "pound" their defenses...

Hell, Texas had the #1 rushing defense in the country when they had to face Alabama in the national title game, and BOTH Bama's backs rushed for over 100 yards on them before they even knew what hit 'em...

Pounding Big-12 defenses is like pounding a C-USA defense, unless you're talking about Nebraska's..

And I would stipulate, even Nebraska had a mediocre run defense...but a ridiculously superb pass defense.

 

[finsfanjay13]

Not quite as naive as thinking your answer applies to the point I raised. A hedge fund, or any fund or account managed by an asset manager, is answerable to performance standards, usually relative to a benchmark. Often times, very SPECIFIC performance standards, such as 150 bps of alpha over any trailing 3 year period. I am arguing for EXACTLY the kind of accountability that hedge fund managers and asset managers experience on an ongoing basis. Whereas you seem to be cool with underperfomance on the basis of, "Well, hindsight is 20/20..."

If I'm a consultant and the asset manager for my client's money came into a meeting with the board for a client review, and explained his underperformance the way you did, "Hindsight is 20/20..." I would immediately point out exactly what I did here, that WE PAY YOU to have foresight, not to hide behind hindsight excuses. I certainly can't imagine coming to any of the clients for which my team manages billions of dollars worth of assets for, with an excuse that poor.

Unfortunately, you didn't understand the point.

 

[ckparrothead]

Unfortunately, you didn't understand the point.

LMFAO! Sure...

 

[finsfanjay13]

LMFAO! Sure...

No, really. You didn't. The illustration had nothing to do with the workings and accountability of a hedge fund to their investors. You took my statement and implied something incorrectly. The statement was simple: Spending money, time or anything that can be quantified does not guarantee success. It had nothing to do with the underperformance of said hedge fund (or current regime). It had to do with the fact that even these big hedge funds (hell, even the HFT systems) don't hit on every one. Just like the Dolphins don't, won't, and will never hit on every one. But looking back, sometimes you say, "Crap. Why didn't I invest in AAPL when it was sitting in the $80s instead of MCD when it was in the $50s?" Both would have made you some good money, but one would have made you a lot more. That's how I see the Ryan vs. Long pick.

Besides, they could have drafted Gholston (Lehman Brothers)...

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

As much as I applaud your confidence, it's bordering on the line of arrogance and/or narcissism.

I also think we're arguing different points here. I'm looking at the picture from a holistic view. My view is simple: If they want to be stubborn as hell and not grab a new quarterback, then all I can ask for is that they build a better team around him. That way, when the inevitable happens (i.e., they're gone), the new regime can come in, get their guy, plug his *** in and hopefully have a winning formula.

If that doesn't make it any more clear, then one day you will understand. I guarantee you will.

I'm way ahead of you finfanjay... I've already taken the "holistic view".. and did so with my first post in this thread noting that I think Miami selected some good football players despite not addressing the quarterback position.

However, I think their strategy for acquiring the players they did, and their plan of attack working the draft was absurd.

If they're going to try to make Miami a "better" football team by exhausting every resource available upgrading everything except the quarterback position, it's only prolonging the inevitable... which is failure.

 

[finsfanjay13]

I'm way ahead of you finfanjay... I've already taken the "holistic view".. and did so with my first post in this thread noting that I think Miami selected some good football players despite not addressing the quarterback position.

However, I think their strategy for acquiring the players they did, and their plan of attack working the draft was absurd.

If they're going to try to make Miami a "better" football team by exhausting every resource available upgrading everything except the quarterback position, it's only prolonging the inevitable... which is failure.

Here are some things we will agree on, and then I'll back off on this prolonged argument (I have beer in the fridge that's ready for consumption):

1.) This team will not take the "next step" until a franchise QB is in Miami.
2.) This team will not get that franchise QB until a new regime is in town.
3.) I would prefer to have a new regime.
4.) Henne sucks.

Everything else, we will probably disagree on. But at least we agree on something, right? :)