Have the Dolphin once again traded back and missed getting a special player? | Page 19 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Have the Dolphin once again traded back and missed getting a special player?

Ray R

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The point is will we miss out on a truly great player for something much less?

We’ve found good receivers later in the draft in the past...Jarvis Landry in round 2....Mark Clayton in Round 8.....etc etc etc

Your not going to find a Kyle Pitts that way.....

You make a valid point!

My questions are:

1) What are the historical odds of getting a "truly great player" with a lower pick?
There are always going to be questions about the coaching and game plans enhancing or hurting a player, depending on his skill set and which team he lands on.

2) What is a given teams GM's record in picking successful draftees?

I don't have those answers.

My intuition is that Grier & Company seem to know what they are doing by establishing good draft control with multiple draft picks and most of their higher draft picks (2020 up to now) still on the team. The CAP is under control and they seem to be avoiding big spending to a reasonable degree. Free Agents have improved the team; what else is there to expect except for the degree of improvement.

I do not know if those questions are actually answerable but if they are, I would like to know.
 

The Ghost

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If QB's go 1-4 and Sewell goes 5, and that phone starts ringing off the hook at 6, Grier is going to want to hear those offers.

The thought process that went into trading from 12 to 6 from Grier/Ross/Flores collectively; We really want player A or player B and if neither is available that means the value of pick 6 (in a trade down) is way higher than what we gave to Philly to get here.

Why do I keep brining this up? Because my boss and my best friend are both Bears fans. I have a pretty firm grasp on their franchise. They are absolutely spinning their wheels right now and going nowhere. Its not a secret to anyone. They will do something stupid on draft day. Their HC and GM can NOT afford to go 6-10 (and thats being kind) with Andy Dalton if there isn't a talented rookie behind them capable of saving their jobs, I believe one of them is terrible at their job and dragging the other one down with him. The caveat here being I am not a 100% sure they'd even be allowed to make the kind of offer it would take to move up to 6.

That's my random thought for the day.
 

Ferretsquig

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You make a valid point!

My questions are:

1) What are the historical odds of getting a "truly great player" with a lower pick?
There are always going to be questions about the coaching and game plans enhancing or hurting a player, depending on his skill set and which team he lands on.

Someone put together a breakdown on where all pros were selected.


The odds are incredibly low across the board but the difference between a high first rounder and a mid first rounder isn't all that significant. Where you drop off the face of the cliff is in the later rounds.
 

Sirspud

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No matter where we pick there's probably a really good player or two we won't draft. There might be a better guy at the position we draft in the long run. That's kind of the way the draft works.
 

Sirspud

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If QB's go 1-4 and Sewell goes 5, and that phone starts ringing off the hook at 6, Grier is going to want to hear those offers.

The thought process that went into trading from 12 to 6 from Grier/Ross/Flores collectively; We really want player A or player B and if neither is available that means the value of pick 6 (in a trade down) is way higher than what we gave to Philly to get here.

Why do I keep brining this up? Because my boss and my best friend are both Bears fans. I have a pretty firm grasp on their franchise. They are absolutely spinning their wheels right now and going nowhere. Its not a secret to anyone. They will do something stupid on draft day. Their HC and GM can NOT afford to go 6-10 (and thats being kind) with Andy Dalton if there isn't a talented rookie behind them capable of saving their jobs, I believe one of them is terrible at their job and dragging the other one down with him. The caveat here being I am not a 100% sure they'd even be allowed to make the kind of offer it would take to move up to 6.

That's my random thought for the day.
Not sure which you think is terrible, GM or coach in Chicago. Both seem to be pretty bad. I'm the least impressed with Nagy though. For a supposed offensive guy, outside of one year he's just done a terrible job of putting his unit in position to succeed.
 

CSONKA1966

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If somehow Fields falls to 6 , we are in a great position to trade back. And get a major haul of picks or players.
 

Lovethefish

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To the original point of the post, if Miami misses out on Pitts, there's a real possibility we'll look back and say the 1st and 3rd weren't worth it. As great as Smith, Chase, and Waddle are, Pitts is as rare as it gets, as special as it gets. His combination of skill and physical talent - frame, length, athleticism, natural balance and coordination, etc. - doesn't make sense. You absolutely don't see it. You have to look at some steep comps at other positions.
The issue I have with the trade is the net return. 2023 compensation?
Focus should be 2021/2022 assets to build around Tua.

Did I miss a playoff run wherein now it’s ok to save assets years ahead? We aren’t the Pats not looking to 2023 - how about work towards a division champ this season.
 

djphinfan

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For everyone who thinks that Mel Kiper is a great draft guru here you are:

These guys are paid to make guesses on who is going to be great and at times they are very wrong.
They usually get loud when they are right, but if they are wrong they go mute.

Don't take everything these analysts spout as gospel.
Funny story, on Sep 6 2008 I wrote this about Jimmy Claussen..not patting myself here just thought it was funny, I remember kiper who I respect actually, saying this about Claussen. Killer does a lot of work and isn’t afraid to put it out there..





“Claussen is a bust”

“For the number 1 recruit coming out of high school he sure is pathetic playing the position..hes been exposed in my book..

1} Somebody better tell him to stop tryin to be brady quinn, hes worried about his image, i can see it.

2} he's way to mechanical, so stiff.

3} has absolutely no touch when throwing, no feel for his own velocity.

I might be a little hard on him but i can see him trying to be cool during the game, he’s well aware of his image.

Weiss hitching his wagon to Claussen for the next three years is a mistake,”
 

opticblazed

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Not sure how thats even possible. With 3 qbs possibly going in the top 3, then pitts, chase, waddle, the #1 ot, 1, and a few other names i failed to mention, thats way more than 6 players. How can we miss out unless we pull a raider move and pick a kicker i don't see how we can't get a stud? Am i missing something?
 

rent this space

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The issue I have with the trade is the net return. 2023 compensation?
Focus should be 2021/2022 assets to build around Tua.

Did I miss a playoff run wherein now it’s ok to save assets years ahead? We aren’t the Pats not looking to 2023 - how about work towards a division champ this season.
I might agree if we didn't have 4 picks in the top 50 this year. Plus they only moved 3 spots, they will still get playmakers
 

GRYPHONK

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I find these conversations so interesting.

Some fans get so enamored or obsessed with certain players the draft will be disappointing if we don't take their guy.

Yet, most of the top talents all have question marks for me.

Let me say, I would take any of these players at 6. I just don't understand the disappointment if we don't get a certain 1.

Pitts- its purely speculation and potential. His on field production certainly isn't the reason he is a "generational talent" he played great last season but, with many players opting out, I wonder how good he would of been if no one opted out.

Smith- size is a big concern. Also, same as Pitts, played in a year with opt outs.

Waddle- unfortunately the injury is a huge concern.

Sewell- very simple, he opted out. We are basing our analysis on the prior season. He very well could have been average last season had he played.

Chase- same as sewell.

3 players produced at elite level when they played imo. Chase, Sewell and Smith.

However, all have enough questions marks for me to say none are clearly the "obvious or can't miss" player.

Personally, I would go for production ( chase, Sewell or Smith) over potential (pitts or Waddle)

Also, I would shy away from those that opted out.

This is why Smith is my pick at 6. However, I personally believe Sewell would help our team the most.

Once again, any one of these players would be great additions to our team. I would not be upset with drafting any of them.

My order is Smith, Sewell,Chase, Pitts than Waddle.

If Pitts get drafted 6th I will still be happy.

I don't get so attached to one player I would be devastated if we don't draft them
 
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