How do you Design a Defense to Stop the Athletic Quarterbacks?

[Gonzofinfan]

I hate to say it but there is nothing to stop Mahomes other then himself, Guy has an insane pocket presence and ability to move out the way of pressure.. Bosa beat his man multiple times that for any other QB would result in a sack but Mahomes may be the toughest guy to sack in the NFL. When he is in rhythm there is nothing to stop this guy.

He also possesses two of the fastest recievers in the NFL in Hill and Watkins both sub 4.3 guys so in the time he is moving around one of those guys will be open or you just throw a pass in the direction of Kelce.. I will say it the chiefs current situation is unstoppable, you have to just count on Mahomes making mistakes mentally to beat him but it won't be because of your pass rush or Coverage just poor decision making or an innaccurate pass.

Lamar Jackson I think you bring pressure and take away his running game and force him to make throws within the pocket and that will produce mistakes. I have no doubt that Jackson will be figured out next year as run first QB's always do ala RG3,Vick or Kaepernick. Also Jackson is one leg injury away from being medicore in my book

 

[Gonzofinfan]

"I would take him over any QB in the NFL today or any college QB in the 2020 or 2021 draft."

Now you tell me!

Andy reid is one of the most underrated coaches of his era, the guy just runs phenomenal offense schemes and knows how to coach up a QB particularly an athletic one.. Mahomes is unstoppable with Reid, 2 of the fastest recievers in the NFL and Kelce.

If Reid retired Hill,Kelce or Watkins leaves that is the only hope to make Mahomes look human enough to defend but he will only improve is the scary thing.. Presently I can't think of anything that will effectively shut him down because he is Aaron Rodgers like as a thrower and moves around the pocket like Russell WIlson.

 

[NBP81]

You would have to break things down to, virtually, a play by play basis, taking into account point differential, down and distance, opponent strength and tendencies, just to name a few.

While not broken down into game situation, here are the results comparing teams with elite QBs and teams without... 1st down isnt included for the simple fact that that other situations than 1st and 10 didnt have enough of a sample size to make it useful...I did this one on play by play data from 2018 iirc...

Great QBs:



No Great QBs:

I agree. And to further increase the difficulty, there are only 16 games of evidence for each team a season. It isn't baseball with 162. I don't know how you could justify an analytics department in this sport tbh.

You are right, 16 data points isnt ideal, but breaking it down to play-by-play gives more than enough data... I think my 2018 pbp data had over 40 000 plays.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

IDK about stats, but it is common sense.

The problem with analytics is that rarely are things that involve humans as definitively black and white as mathmatic equations require.

You would have to break things down to, virtually, a play by play basis, taking into account point differential, down and distance, opponent strength and tendencies, just to name a few.

Then, by the very nature of what you are trying to prove, or disprove, values would have to be "weighted", and that leads to human subjective opinion.

You can have all the stats, and theories in the world, but it all comes down to coaching, gameplans, and execution.

Talent doesn't hurt either.

And to be exact, don't forget weather, whether or not it's a Thursday game, injuries, coaching staff, did the previous game go into OT, . . . the variables are endless. I've said elsewhere, anything involving humans is messy. Everything has to be stated with qualifications and probabilities. That's why aI get annoyed with Miami WILL take Tua, SF WILL defeat KC, and similar banal pronouncements. Remember the 'Miami will go 0-16 because they have the worst roster?' As if, every 'worst' team every year goes 0-16.
That rant over, analytics are important. They play a critical role, particularly in football. The old maxim - if you can't measure it, you can't control it. Which gets me back to topic. There are ways to stop every player and every conceivable scheme, if FIRST the opponent has the right scheme and the right talent.

 

[The Goat]

Speed. A very, very deep DB roster, along with an interior 5 in a 3-4 base that can stifle a run game. I firmly believe Miami's scheme with the right players can cause Mahomes problems.

 

[A1.]

Get a TE eraser, attempt to contain and try to make him beat you throwing outside the numbers. Seems to be the recipe

mahomes is a different animal thought. You might have him beat for 3 quarters but he’ll get the best of you and drop 21 in the 4th. No one beats him for four quarters

 

[Gonzofinfan]

While not broken down into game situation, here are the results comparing teams with elite QBs and teams without... 1st down isnt included for the simple fact that that other situations than 1st and 10 didnt have enough of a sample size to make it useful...I did this one on play by play data from 2018 iirc...

Great QBs:

View attachment 37418

No Great QBs:

View attachment 37419


You are right, 16 data points isnt ideal, but breaking it down to play-by-play gives more than enough data... I think my 2018 pbp data had over 40 000 plays.

There is going to be a correction in the future because once the remnants of the previous eras leave (Brees,Brady,Rothleisberger,Rodgers) retire I don't really see equivelant replacements in the NFL to their production other then Mahomes..

I don't buy into Lamar Jackson Long term so in maybe 2 years the top QB's in the NFL will be (Mahomes,Wilson,Wentz) to me that is a massive stepdown from the Manning,Brees,Brady,Rodgers era of insane QB's.

I can see an era where football hopefully starts going back to old school where good complete teams win championships because there just won't be as many superstar unstoppable QB forces in the game.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

Is Mahomes just another Reid creation? He looked god awful for three quarters. the niners took the middle of the field away and forced him to the sidelines. They also took the deep routes away, Mahomes should have been able to dink and dunk them to death but couldn't.

Andy Reid Has Remarkable Track Record Of Success With NFL Quarterbacks - NESN.com

FOXBORO, Mass. — It’s a widely-held belief that great NFL teams need great quarterback play, and there’s no better example than the New England Patriots, who have won four Super Bowls under the direction of Tom Brady. As a head coach, Andy Reid hasn’t had a quarterback quite like Brady, who his...

nesn.com

Having Andy Reid is obviously a help, no doubt.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

IDK about stats, but it is common sense.

The problem with analytics is that rarely are things that involve humans as definitively black and white as mathmatic equations require.

You would have to break things down to, virtually, a play by play basis, taking into account point differential, down and distance, opponent strength and tendencies, just to name a few.

Then, by the very nature of what you are trying to prove, or disprove, values would have to be "weighted", and that leads to human subjective opinion.

You can have all the stats, and theories in the world, but it all comes down to coaching, gameplans, and execution.

Talent doesn't hurt either.

Also clock management comes into play. An incomplete pass when you are trying to put the game away can give your opponent an extra 40 seconds. We've seen teams win and lose based on these coaching decisions.

I don't know if there are any metrics out there that would address clock management.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

The 49ers have an excellent defense and they had two weeks to prepare to play against the Chiefs offense. They were able to apply pressure and Bosa was eating Fishers lunch for most of the game. I don’t care how great a QB you are, it is tough to complete passes when you are running for your life.

While he certainly wasn’t overly effective through the first three quarters, he made the plays when the game was on the line and the Chiefs won because of his ability to play well when they needed him the most. That is what true franchise QB’s are expected to do.

While having Reid as his head coach coming into the league has certainly benefitted Mahomes, I certainly wouldn’t call him a Reid creation. I would take him over any QB in the NFL today or any college QB in the 2020 or 2021 draft.

If I were building a team, Mahomes would be my first choice.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

Also clock management comes into play. An incomplete pass when you are trying to put the game away can give your opponent an extra 40 seconds. We've seen teams win and lose based on these coaching decisions.

I don't know if there are any metrics out there that would address clock management.

And that means run successfully when the D KNOWS the run is coming

 

[Crump]

@NBP81 is an insane genius when it comes to breaking things down analytically. and some of yall are awesome, well advised great posters with great ideas. BUT ****! how hard is it really? Overthinking is one of the biggest obstacles in trying to solve a problem. sweep the damn leg...did i stutter?! you piece of **** ;-)

 

[NBP81]

There is going to be a correction in the future because once the remnants of the previous eras leave (Brees,Brady,Rothleisberger,Rodgers) retire I don't really see equivelant replacements in the NFL to their production other then Mahomes..

I don't buy into Lamar Jackson Long term so in maybe 2 years the top QB's in the NFL will be (Mahomes,Wilson,Wentz) to me that is a massive stepdown from the Manning,Brees,Brady,Rodgers era of insane QB's.

I can see an era where football hopefully starts going back to old school where good complete teams win championships because there just won't be as many superstar unstoppable QB forces in the game.

This is a good point and actually the first time I come across that angle. I dont think it'll be enough to make the running game a definite go to strategy. The running game has its use and teams do need some balance, but 50/50 is not it. Right now, passing the ball is more valuable than running by a wide margin, the running game sereves as a balancing act. I really dont see this changing anytime soon without the league actually tilting the rules. FWIW, the value of running took a dive starting exactly in 2004 when they changed the rules.

Also clock management comes into play. An incomplete pass when you are trying to put the game away can give your opponent an extra 40 seconds. We've seen teams win and lose based on these coaching decisions.

I don't know if there are any metrics out there that would address clock management.

I dont know that there are specific metrics for dealing with time remaining, its doable thats for sure. Or one could simply compare ready available metrics between game states on a play by play basis...

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

There is going to be a correction in the future because once the remnants of the previous eras leave (Brees,Brady,Rothleisberger,Rodgers) retire I don't really see equivelant replacements in the NFL to their production other then Mahomes..

I don't buy into Lamar Jackson Long term so in maybe 2 years the top QB's in the NFL will be (Mahomes,Wilson,Wentz) to me that is a massive stepdown from the Manning,Brees,Brady,Rodgers era of insane QB's.

I can see an era where football hopefully starts going back to old school where good complete teams win championships because there just won't be as many superstar unstoppable QB forces in the game.

That is an interesting take. Lots of quality veteran quarterbacks are in their golden years.

We'll have to see who emerges at the position and what college quarterbacks turn out.

 

[Mach2]

And that means run successfully when the D KNOWS the run is coming

And when that is the situation, you can very often break the "will" of the defense, and it's game over.

The kill shot though, is when they cheat up too far, and you hit a slant in stride for 20 yds.