How do you Design a Defense to Stop the Athletic Quarterbacks? | Page 5 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

How do you Design a Defense to Stop the Athletic Quarterbacks?

And when that is the situation, you can very often break the "will" of the defense, and it's game over.

The kill shot though, is when they cheat up too far, and you hit a slant in stride for 20 yds.

IF they actually fear the run. I don't think that was the case with the '19 Fins
 
Pocket containment, a speedy and football intelligent spy on the QB, and disciplined coverage downfield. And an offense that can score points. Because, as Mahomes has shown, you can do everything right on almost every defensive possession and still find yourself getting burned once or twice.
 
This is a good point and actually the first time I come across that angle. I dont think it'll be enough to make the running game a definite go to strategy. The running game has its use and teams do need some balance, but 50/50 is not it. Right now, passing the ball is more valuable than running by a wide margin, the running game sereves as a balancing act. I really dont see this changing anytime soon without the league actually tilting the rules. FWIW, the value of running took a dive starting exactly in 2004 when they changed the rules.

I dont know that there are specific metrics for dealing with time remaining, its doable thats for sure. Or one could simply compare ready available metrics between game states on a play by play basis...
You are right, 50/50 is not it, but anything beyond 55/45 is a definite outlier.

I looked into the ratio for all the playoff teams a few weeks ago, and found the extremes to be KC with the highest, and Baltimore actually ran slightly more than passed.

Neither of those things is surprising, given the individual offensive systems, but even so, they were within @ 7% of each other IIRC.
 
You are right, 50/50 is not it, but anything beyond 55/45 is a definite outlier.

I looked into the ratio for all the playoff teams a few weeks ago, and found the extremes to be KC with the highest, and Baltimore actually ran slightly more than passed.

Neither of those things is surprising, given the individual offensive systems, but even so, they were within @ 7% of each other IIRC.
Like you've stated before, balance is not something to analyse over all plays, you really need to look at situations and get your frequencies right in all of them... For example, and Im pulling numbers out of my ass here to illustrate my point, lets say 2 teams balance run pass 55/45 overall, but 1 team runs on 1st and 10 70% of the time while the other only runs in 2nd and less then 5 or 3rd and less than 3. I'd say the latter is closer to GTO. Again, those numbers dont mean anything, just trying to illustrate what Im talking about here.
 
You are right, 50/50 is not it, but anything beyond 55/45 is a definite outlier.

I looked into the ratio for all the playoff teams a few weeks ago, and found the extremes to be KC with the highest, and Baltimore actually ran slightly more than passed.

Neither of those things is surprising, given the individual offensive systems, but even so, they were within @ 7% of each other IIRC.

Based on no data, I suspect part of that is human nature. Coaches who don't have a good run game will end to pass more on, say, 3rd and 3 than coaches who trust the run game. some coaches, by personality, just like to run more and build teams that can (hopefully) do both. With an atletic QB, the D has to honor run and pass every play
 
I'm just going to say in regards to the superbowl, I don't think Shanahan made the wrong call at the time dialing up pass plays..

Look your up 10 points on the chiefs coming off an interception, At that point with as good as Mahomes is you have to complete passes and attack that defense and put your foot on the chiefs neck. Its easy to say they should have run the football exclusively but in that situation the defense is prepared for just that and how many times have we seen teams against Brady etc get a 3 and out running the football and go on..

So in my book shanahan did the right thing but it just didn't work out because Garropolo didn't make good passes guy just isn't that accurate, but you have to continue to attack aggressively to put that team away because everyone in that stadium knew Mahomes was coming.
 
Based on no data, I suspect part of that is human nature. Coaches who don't have a good run game will end to pass more on, say, 3rd and 3 than coaches who trust the run game. some coaches, by personality, just like to run more and build teams that can (hopefully) do both. With an atletic QB, the D has to honor run and pass every play
No doubt there is a "philosophical" element to it, as well as what a given team may be better at.

I was just looking at the playoff teams, as they were more successful than the average team. Even so, there isn't what I would consider a huge difference in the R/P ratio of either end of the scale.

Obviously there will be contributing factors like a "bad" team playing from behind vs a good team with a comfortable second half lead.
 
No doubt there is a "philosophical" element to it, as well as what a given team may be better at.

I was just looking at the playoff teams, as they were more successful than the average team. Even so, there isn't what I would consider a huge difference in the R/P ratio of either end of the scale.

Obviously there will be contributing factors like a "bad" team playing from behind vs a good team with a comfortable second half lead.

If I ever get the time, there are stats I'd love to compare over years. For example, the bottom 5 teams vs. the top 5. What traits are common within both groups. I would expect bottom 5 teams are far more likely to have bad Ds and bad OLs. Those traits force the OC or DC into certain schemes. Top 5 teams have the luxury of more varied and unpredictable schemes. which gets to your point. They tend to be more successful with run OR pass than bad teams for a reason.
 
The Mahomes Defense:

1. Play 5-6 DB's
2. Use a spy on the QB
3. Have CB's that can tackle
 
You find a QB with a scheme that is just as dangerous as the one you are facing.

Defense would need to rely on the front 4 with a LB quick and fast enough to keep up with the man.

It's all about offense in this era. Keep up and score points.
 
If I ever get the time, there are stats I'd love to compare over years. For example, the bottom 5 teams vs. the top 5. What traits are common within both groups. I would expect bottom 5 teams are far more likely to have bad Ds and bad OLs. Those traits force the OC or DC into certain schemes. Top 5 teams have the luxury of more varied and unpredictable schemes. which gets to your point. They tend to be more successful with run OR pass than bad teams for a reason.
I dont know why you insist on restricting your data samples like that... You cant say data analysis is always biased in some sort of way and turn around and use top 5 teams vs bottom 5 teams for any kind of argument...

This is exactly how you introduce bias into your research. Why top 5 vs. bottom 5? Is there any logical argument for splitting your data like that besides the fact that 5 kinda sounds like a nice number? Why not top 6 vs bottom 6? or top 4 vs bottom 4? That decision directly affects the results and you have no reason whatsoever to pick 5....

If its any kind of a data aquisition problem, just PM me and I will gladly scrape whatever data you need, I really have nothing to do during winter, I would love to help you out.
 
I dont know why you insist on restricting your data samples like that... You cant say data analysis is always biased in some sort of way and turn around and use top 5 teams vs bottom 5 teams for any kind of argument...

This is exactly how you introduce bias into your research. Why top 5 vs. bottom 5? Is there any logical argument for splitting your data like that besides the fact that 5 kinda sounds like a nice number? Why not top 6 vs bottom 6? or top 4 vs bottom 4? That decision directly affects the results and you have no reason whatsoever to pick 5....

If its any kind of a data aquisition problem, just PM me and I will gladly scrape whatever data you need, I really have nothing to do during winter, I would love to help you out.

You are correct. 5 is arbitrary. What I'm proposing is a preliminary investigation, which, as you know, does not include the universe and, by definition, includes arbitrary limits.
In this case, if a preliminary investigation shows significant difference within extremes, an exhaustive study should follow. My hypothesis is top teams have more positive characteristics than poor teams. And, I admit, those initial characteristics I would test would be arbitrary - D ranking, scoring, TOs, . . . that type of stuff. I anticipate the preliminary investigation would confirm common sense.
If you have the time to skip a preliminary study, that would be excellent. The difficulty would be determining which characteristics to measure, otherwise, the test would be endless. Feel free to xonstruct any test you want. I'll when as I have time and resources.
 
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