If we are far apart on a contract, I’m talking to the Lions about pick 18.
How high are you willing to pay Wilkins?
- Thread starter NBP81
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Josh Allen's balls disagree........
Who ya got your eye on at 18 Ghost? I might be up for it if there is some major slippage going on.
ThePeopleShow13
Club Member
I think there are a lot of factors to consider when extending Wilkins. First off, his stat line the last 2 seasons is all over the place. He has: 187 tackles (108 solo and 79 assists), 26 tackles for a loss, 20 QB hits, and 8 sacks. Those are solid numbers. However, defensive linemen are not really judged by how many tackles they get. 161 of his tackles were at some point downfield. In a different scheme with better LBs, those tackle numbers are almost guaranteed to drop. The stats that get interior guys paid are tackles for loss, pressures and sacks.
The second thing to consider is that he came into the NFL 23 years old and turned 24 in December of his rookie season. He is at least 1-2 years older than many of the top DTs getting massive extensions. Age is always going to be a concern when it comes to handing out long contracts and guaranteed money.
My point in all of this is that if we planned to just break the bank, Wilkins would already be extended. The reason we are in continuous talks is more than likely because we don’t want to overpay. I want him to be a Miami Dolphin, but we really can’t afford to give every player $20M per season. Particularly if Tua stays healthy and commands a $40M+ per year extension.
The second thing to consider is that he came into the NFL 23 years old and turned 24 in December of his rookie season. He is at least 1-2 years older than many of the top DTs getting massive extensions. Age is always going to be a concern when it comes to handing out long contracts and guaranteed money.
My point in all of this is that if we planned to just break the bank, Wilkins would already be extended. The reason we are in continuous talks is more than likely because we don’t want to overpay. I want him to be a Miami Dolphin, but we really can’t afford to give every player $20M per season. Particularly if Tua stays healthy and commands a $40M+ per year extension.
JamesWsenior
Club Member
No. As much as I know we need to protect Tua at all costs, too much of a roll of the dice for me. Anyways who is this you speak off?
With Wilkins we know what we have and it's pretty damn good IMO. Ogbah to move up and grab one early in the 2nd, now I might give it some thought.
If you even think about trading for a 1st rounder they need to have a replacement in the draft in mind. If you look at game playing time at the position, you will see he is worth the money. 
Not giving a damn how a player is viewed by anyone other than people who are biased and root for him, in the context of a discussion of the player’s market value, is weird.
How the league views Wilkins is all that matters. It’s what sets his market value.
Also, evaluating DTs based on stats is kind of weird. In most schemes, if your defensive tackle is getting 80 tackles, something has gone horribly wrong. It’s not a good thing.
JamesWsenior
Club Member
Too simple.
It isn't a question of him being a very good player.
The right question is how many teams would give a top 5 contract for his services. We don't know the answer to that, but I would speculate there are more who wouldn't, than who would.
As @NBP81 pointed out in his OP, there is more to it than the per year number. I love the player. He has a non stop motor and has gotten better every year. At some point, though, the team has to say that's too much for a DT. You have to weigh what is the "real" drop off in play if we were to go a different direction, Say we replaced him with a 10m dollar FA, or drafted another guy. Could the savings be better spent elsewhere?
As with most decisions, it's best to leave emotional attachment out of it.
Trading Wilkins would be extremely dumb. He’s young, he’s good, he’s beloved by teammates and fans, and the Dolphins likely value him more highly than any other team.
The worst case scenario here, if we don’t come to any agreement, is that we can lock him up through the next two seasons (2023 and 2024) for $30 million total. That’s $15M AAV. If we still want him in 2025, he will be turning 30 and we would almost definitely be able to re-sign him for the same $15-20M AAV we’re talking about now even if everything goes right for him as an individual player.
The worst case scenario here, if we don’t come to any agreement, is that we can lock him up through the next two seasons (2023 and 2024) for $30 million total. That’s $15M AAV. If we still want him in 2025, he will be turning 30 and we would almost definitely be able to re-sign him for the same $15-20M AAV we’re talking about now even if everything goes right for him as an individual player.
JamesWsenior
Club Member
The million dollars questions. At what point is it too much that it hurts you in other areas...not easy to answer.
Maybe the new way of the world is just pay a few guys top dollar and keep churning out everyone after 5 year...like running backs.
Can you elaborate on the football mechanics of that statement? It makes no sense to me, but maybe I will learn something.
Would you prefer LBers making the tackles 7 yards farther down field, or Safeties 12 yard down field?
I love him and want him to stay as I think our studly run stopping is largely because of him. If we let him go we better get something for him AND have a plan to fill that huge void. He has been a healthy force, plays quite a bit.
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I may be alone in this, but here we go. wilkins future will be decided based on two factors - his value to the D based on performance AND his cost. It isn't possible to discuss one without discussing the other.
I see Wilkins as a disrupter. Quick twitch for a DL, but not as productive in pass rush as the 'elite' guys. Thus, somewhere close to $16mm.
Now comes the cost. No, not HIS cost, but the opportunity cost. What do Grier/Mcd think his team cost will be? Paying him $22mm means another possible signing is missed. It means resigning another desired player will be difficult if not impossible. This, to me, is a large part of any negotiation in any type business - opportunity cost.
Just fabricating an example, if Wilkins can be traded for a R2 this year and a top half OG AND still have enough cap room to sign another needed position, what would Grier/Mcd do? No idea, but my point is those are the types of considerations that go in to salary negotiations.